p.11 #1 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
chez wrote:
Is Fuji doing well? Last year the big 3 ( Canon, Nikon and Sony ) collectively increased their market share of the ILC market at the demise of the rest of the industry. I believe the big 3 own almost 90% of the market.
I posted earlier a quote from Tamron. They claim while FF is expanding, APS-C is shrinking quite fast. Mirrorless or DSLR, the future is not bright for cropped sensor systems.
p.11 #2 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
vdo1 wrote:
And here I think comes the problem. It is the smartphones that are now "good enough for most". No more need for P&S and Rebels. And, for the few enthusiasts willing to go past the smartphone, you need to do something outstanding in order to capture their imagination. "Good enough" is not enough anymore.
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RobCD wrote:
Canon can only use 'plenty good enough for most' and their financial and marketing strength for so long. This approach is already starting to catch up with them and if DSLRs trend down as aggressively as they appear to be, in my opinion Canon could find themselves in a much more challenging position than you think.
Yup-both good points here. More and more folks will no longer start buying entry-level cameras because their cell phones make good enough images and those that care to have an actual camera will do some research and find Canon left by the wayside.
p.11 #3 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
sflxn wrote:
I posted earlier a quote from Tamron. They claim while FF is expanding, APS-C is shrinking quite fast. Mirrorless or DSLR, the future is not bright for cropped sensor systems.
It's a bit strange quote because APS-C camera sales are at least an order magnitude larger than for FF, so even if the APS-C market is shrinking the numbers are certainly still bigger. Maybe the problem is more that Tamron and Sigma do not have the right lenses to compete in this market. e.g. buyers of a small Canon Rebel DSLR will probably buy Canon's cheap and relatively good STM zooms (10-18, 55-250) in addition to the kit zoom. For APS-C MILC from Canon and Fuji there aren't that many competitive lenses from Sigma/Tamron either. They may concentrate on FF because it is easier for them to make money there because of generally much higher price level, not because the FF market is bigger.
p.11 #4 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
technic wrote:
It's a bit strange quote because APS-C camera sales are at least an order magnitude larger than for FF, so even if the APS-C market is shrinking the numbers are certainly still bigger. Maybe the problem is more that Tamron and Sigma do not have the right lenses to compete in this market. e.g. buyers of a small Canon Rebel DSLR will probably buy Canon's cheap and relatively good STM zooms (10-18, 55-250) in addition to the kit zoom. For APS-C MILC from Canon and Fuji there aren't that many competitive lenses from Sigma/Tamron either. They may concentrate on FF because it is easier for them to make money there because of generally much higher price level, not because the FF market is bigger....Show more →
I didn't put in his other quote where he said most cropped sensor users usually buy just a kit zoom so there's not much continued business.
I suspect cropped sensor format is very close to reaching the apocalyptic decline rates that p&s suffered. Maybe not today but within a few years. I don't think it's an accident that Sony and Canon ignored their mirrorless APS-C lens lineup. They will put in minimal efforts to milk apsc for as long as they can.
Also, FF will only stay immune to this for so long. There will always be a market for a FF system, but the market will eventually be a lot smaller. Just look to digital medium format to get an idea of FF's future. I hope it doesn't happen, but I will not be shocked if the entry fee for FF reach 10-15k just for the body one day.
p.11 #5 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
I think a lot of people (myself included) are seeing the overall market through enthusiast/pro tinted googles. Our category has probably 1% or less impact on the way the future of unfolds.
p.11 #6 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
technic wrote:
It's a bit strange quote because APS-C camera sales are at least an order magnitude larger than for FF, so even if the APS-C market is shrinking the numbers are certainly still bigger. Maybe the problem is more that Tamron and Sigma do not have the right lenses to compete in this market. e.g. buyers of a small Canon Rebel DSLR will probably buy Canon's cheap and relatively good STM zooms (10-18, 55-250) in addition to the kit zoom. For APS-C MILC from Canon and Fuji there aren't that many competitive lenses from Sigma/Tamron either. They may concentrate on FF because it is easier for them to make money there because of generally much higher price level, not because the FF market is bigger....Show more →
The crop lens market is half the value of the full frame and larger lens value for the three first months of 2019. In number of lenses it’s still about 60-70% larger. The crop lens market has been shrinking for a while and is down about 30% in one year, while full frame holds steady. Tamron’s assertions about the market seems correct to me.
p.11 #7 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
tek9 wrote:
I think a lot of people (myself included) are seeing the overall market through enthusiast/pro tinted googles. Our category has probably 1% or less impact on the way the future of unfolds.
Gotta disagree with this one. The enthusiast/pro market is increasingly meaningfull and goggles tinted our way are more accurate tomorrow than they are today. Sony sales in numbers decreased 20% last year yet they did a few percent plus in terms of revenue. This was only possible due to significant increase in average price of camera sold (this has happened several years in the row) ==> the market is moving towards situation where only the enthusiast/pro market is what is left. Sony is predicting another -20% in number of cameras sold for this financial year. Who is gonna be left? The enthusiasts/pros.
Canon mentioned in their quarterly report that low end DSLR sales are diving; again sign that phone cameras are increasingly killing even the low end system cameras and increasingly only the enthusiasts are left.
In 2018, about 10,8M system cameras were sold. Tony Norhtrup's youtube channel alone has 1,3M subs; I'd say subscribing to a photo gear-oriented youtube stream is a mark of certain level of enthusiasm.
p.11 #8 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Personal preference. Its like choosing between Audi or BMW, both have their advantages and disadvantages. Some people love DSLRs and some love mirrorless. Its not really competing tech, its different tech. Some love OVF, some love EVF. Now that Nikon and Canon got into the FF mirrorless, Sony's "growing" market share isn't growing, since those otherwise sales are now going to the other two.
p.11 #9 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
tek9 wrote:
I think a lot of people (myself included) are seeing the overall market through enthusiast/pro tinted googles. Our category has probably 1% or less impact on the way the future of unfolds.
We have a much bigger impact than that, in that we drive and consume YouTube reviews, website reviews, and forum comments that consumers look to when searching for a camera. Consumers may not need cameras for the same reasons we do, but they certainly care about and research enthusiast/pro opinions before buying – and those opinions are hitting CaNikon 35mm mirrorless sales pretty hard.
p.11 #10 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
highdesertmesa wrote:
We have a much bigger impact than that, in that we drive and consume YouTube reviews, website reviews, and forum comments that consumers look to when searching for a camera. Consumers may not need cameras for the same reasons we do, but they certainly care about and research enthusiast/pro opinions before buying – and those opinions are hitting CaNikon 35mm mirrorless sales pretty hard.
Yes - but our decisions / purchase choices won't save the brands. P&S already died. M4/3 & DX will likely follow sooner or later. Average Joe won't go buying FX bodies with multiple lenses if his 50mpix cellphone with multiple lenses is 'good enough'. imo.
p.11 #11 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
We have to think about what made most of the APS-C shooter moves to FF sensor in the first place. It's was all about DoF and noise at higher ISO. Today's APS-C sensor can come very close to FF sensor when it comes to noise at higher ISO. DoF can now be done by software. Yet people are still moving to FF due to the lower cost of acquisition and gear envy.
I can tell you that regardless of the body I use to shoot, all my photos always ended kinda the same. It's almost like the photographer has something to do with the input/output of the camera.
p.11 #12 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
SouthwestS2K wrote:
Personal preference. Its like choosing between Audi or BMW, both have their advantages and disadvantages. Some people love DSLRs and some love mirrorless. Its not really competing tech, its different tech. Some love OVF, some love EVF. Now that Nikon and Canon got into the FF mirrorless, Sony's "growing" market share isn't growing, since those otherwise sales are now going to the other two.
No, mirrorless is replacing DSLR and all of the camera companies have explicitly acknowledged this in piblic statements.
p.11 #13 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
RobCD wrote:
I'm not sure where you're getting the 90+ number from but I fully expect Canon and Nikon to win back some users that switched to Sony. From what I've observed there is no shortage of reluctant Sony users that begrudgingly switched to Sony because Canon and Nikon didn't have their act together. But I agree that Canon and Nikon need to bring their A game and release compelling mirrorless cameras and lenses going forward. They were close in some ways with the initial offerings but probably need to step it up more.
The 90% figure referenced was in order for them to keep something close to their current market share.
p.11 #14 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
chez wrote:
Is Fuji doing well? Last year the big 3 ( Canon, Nikon and Sony ) collectively increased their market share of the ILC market at the demise of the rest of the industry. I believe the big 3 own almost 90% of the market.
Fuji has set themselves up to be a survivor because they are serious innovators. If Canon, Nikon and Sony move away from the APS-C market segment then Fuji will dominate it easily. This will insure their survival for probably a decade, or more. In many ways, Fuji's APS-C cameras are more than a match for FF cameras. If the X-T3 had IBIS I would have already jumped ship and be using their gear.
Also, any reference to market share regarding Canon and Nikon needs an footnote reference because their current numbers are bolsters a large amount by DSLR sales. They are the only companies offering DSLRs and this advantage is quickly dying. If you look at just MILC numbers the story is very different.
p.11 #15 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Statistics are often difficult to interpret particularly in a declining dynamic market. Of course you can look at new sales but as mentioned already many photographers have no need to upgrade for now and still have their installed base camera system whether it is DSLR/MILC or RF. Many who do opt for MILC's also have kept their DSLR systems just for the range of lenses. Some will move completely to MILC's. Who cares at least for next few years! Many who buy DSLR's now buy used copies as the recent technology is that good there is no need to buy new. Same for MILC's as there so many great buys.
The new market for camera systems have dramatically declined and within this subset the figures will be changing. This is a concern for all manufacturers as to how far the overall market will fall.
For certain the market for smart phones is growing and it will be interesting to see how much both the camera/videos can improve.
p.11 #16 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
PicGuy wrote:
Fuji has set themselves up to be a survivor because they are serious innovators. If Canon, Nikon and Sony move away from the APS-C market segment then Fuji will dominate it easily. This will insure their survival for probably a decade, or more. In many ways, Fuji's APS-C cameras are more than a match for FF cameras. If the X-T3 had IBIS I would have already jumped ship and be using their gear.
Also, any reference to market share regarding Canon and Nikon needs an footnote reference because their current numbers are bolsters a large amount by DSLR sales. They are the only companies offering DSLRs and this advantage is quickly dying. If you look at just MILC numbers the story is very different. ...Show more →
There is a difference between making a good product and being able to survive. It would be informative if we were able to monitor the growth/decline of these cropped systems. I still don't believe they will survive regardless of how well designed and built those systems are. The total supply of systems buyers is shrinking by the day. I truly do not believe there is a fix pool of high end system buyers even if the lower end buyers drop out.
As lower end buyers drop out, revenues fall, investments fall. For these makers to make up for that, they will raise prices. We saw that evidence with Pana and Oly latest offerings. When prices increases, fewer enthusiasts will buy. Just watch whether Fuji and others start cutting lower end models from their offerings as the m43 guys have done. That will signal the beginning of the end.
Also, look at the ridiculous prices for medium format now. That is where 35mm is heading. How many enthusiasts will buy a $4k Fuji apsc or a $10k Sony FF? It's coming.
p.11 #17 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
PicGuy wrote:
Fuji has set themselves up to be a survivor because they are serious innovators. If Canon, Nikon and Sony move away from the APS-C market segment then Fuji will dominate it easily. This will insure their survival for probably a decade, or more. In many ways, Fuji's APS-C cameras are more than a match for FF cameras. If the X-T3 had IBIS I would have already jumped ship and be using their gear.
Also, any reference to market share regarding Canon and Nikon needs an footnote reference because their current numbers are bolsters a large amount by DSLR sales. They are the only companies offering DSLRs and this advantage is quickly dying. If you look at just MILC numbers the story is very different. ...Show more →
Do you have a reference to these MILC numbers you bring up? I've never seen any.
I don't think the Big 3 ever cared that much about APS-C in the price bracket that Fuji is at. Especially for mirrorless, both Canon and Sony focused on those half-heartedly.
p.11 #19 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
sflxn wrote:
There is a difference between making a good product and being able to survive. It would be informative if we were able to monitor the growth/decline of these cropped systems. I still don't believe they will survive regardless of how well designed and built those systems are. The total supply of systems buyers is shrinking by the day. I truly do not believe there is a fix pool of high end system buyers even if the lower end buyers drop out.
The numbers for APS-C sales needs to account for DSLR and MILC sales independently to get a true idea of how the APS-C segment is behaving. My guess is since a large number APS-C sales have been tied to DSLRs any big declines are due to the overall drop in DSLR sales. Canon has had strong MILC APS-C sales in Japan for many years but their numbers decline in other parts of the world. How much is something I find hard to determine.
Canon has gained market share in APS-C MILC by going after the bottom feeders with their EOS M line (the M50 in particular). Profit margins are low with this strategy. Sony and Fuji are going for the enthusiast segment where good profit margins are found. IMO, Canon's big problem with their strategy is the low end is where the most intensity of the smartphone cut into ILC will be felt. They will be forced to upscale their APS-C MILCs to compete against Sony and Fuji or they will very likely be forced out of this market segment. This might be why Sony has abandoned competing in the segment Canon is dominating as they know this market segment isn't a good long term investment of resources. Canon might be concentrating on the low end segment mostly likely because they can't compete anywhere else with the technology they currently use.
sflxn wrote:
As lower end buyers drop out, revenues fall, investments fall. For these makers to make up for that, they will raise prices. We saw that evidence with Pana and Oly latest offerings. When prices increases, fewer enthusiasts will buy. Just watch whether Fuji and others start cutting lower end models from their offerings as the m43 guys have done. That will signal the beginning of the end.
I think the $1k and up APS-C MILC market segment is safe for a while from the smartphone assault. This bodes well for Sony, Fuji and Nikon if they enter this segment with the Z mount. Also, Nikon currently is far better positioned than Canon to enter this market as they have access to Sony sensors and have produced compelling cameras with more competitive tech like IBIS. I don't think prices in this segment will fall below $1.5k to $1k while older generation models will to fill the sub $1k segment.
sflxn wrote:
Also, look at the ridiculous prices for medium format now. That is where 35mm is heading. How many enthusiasts will buy a $4k Fuji apsc or a $10k Sony FF? It's coming.
Not many. This is why I think APS-C as currently configured will have a place in in the ILC market for at least another 5-10 years. The cameras Sony and Fuji are offering these days gives users a great set of features and sensor performance they isn't that for off from FF. Combine this with the size and weight advantage for APS-C cameras and lenses and I don't see the demise of APS-C anytime soon.
p.11 #20 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
If you look at the current Amazon top selling ML cameras, it's dominated by various APS-C camera's. Many with kit lenses which may explain why 3rd party manufacturers don't see lens sales. Most people never go beyond the kit lens.
That seems like a lot of volume to throw away if I was a camera maker in a time of market decline.
I doubt FF camera prices are high enough yet to sustain the market and the R+D on their own. One blessing is that Sony at least doesn't have to care about camera sensor sales as cell phones largely drive their R+D. Will they be happy propping up a minuscule FF camera market? IDK.
