p.10 #1 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
bjornthun wrote:
Nokia was no. 1 in cell phones, had all the products, manufacturing capacity and marketing, and still they went away.
Nokia couldn't provide what the market demanded. Canon is providing exactly what the ILC market wants (as much of it as remains). The majority of the market who don't read forums, don't know of the concept of brand wars, what DR means but do know that it's a rock solid lineup in both bodies running the full gamut of resolution requirements, huge lens lineup running the full gamut of necessity at competitive prices and with renown support and availability worldwide. The same people who can't work out why they should pay more for slightly smaller, less ergonomic, more fragile cameras using more expensive lenses and a question mark about support. The advantages of FF mirrorless, such as they are, appeal far more to the well heeled enthusiast and pixel peeper than the pro or the soccer mom.
If Canon dies it will be due to smartphones and waning interest in dedication to photography in general in age of utter and complete imagery saturation and the 1 second pause and swipe Instagram attention span (in my view a far greater danger to manufacturers than the smartphone itself which created the problem). Oh and every other ILC manufacturer will be in just as much trouble.
I still think that Nikon has been a leader in making 'photographers' cameras since the D3 and D700. I played with the Z series next to one of our A7rIII's recently, as a photographer I'd take the Z any day of the week. Nikon just seem to 'get it'. I wish they were stronger, I think history will conclude that they deserved better. They will probably be in serious trouble faster than the other two. That said Sony is well known for pulling the plug on entire lines if the market changes, even if those lines once defined them which cameras do not as yet. They are a technology company, not a camera company. Canon has built their identity and brand around cameras and have the financial umph to keep it going. In all honesty I'd assume that canon's approach of 'plenty good enough for most' will keep its head above water the longest.
p.10 #2 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
mfenske wrote:
I can't wrap my head around the idea that no one at Canon (seemingly) has said "We sure seem to be getting a lot of crap and losing ground to Sony because of our sensors-let's make a better one"
BCN sales, A73 vs. competition (hope it wasn't posted already):
p.10 #4 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Beni wrote:
Nokia couldn't provide what the market demanded. Canon is providing exactly what the ILC market wants (as much of it as remains). The majority of the market who don't read forums, don't know of the concept of brand wars, what DR means but do know that it's a rock solid lineup in both bodies running the full gamut of resolution requirements, huge lens lineup running the full gamut of necessity at competitive prices and with renown support and availability worldwide. The same people who can't work out why they should pay more for slightly smaller, less ergonomic, more fragile cameras using more expensive lenses and a question mark about support. The advantages of FF mirrorless, such as they are, appeal far more to the well heeled enthusiast and pixel peeper than the pro or the soccer mom.
I don't agree with your statement that mirrorless just appeals to the well heeled enthusiast based on two observations.
1. While traveling through Asia, India and Europe, I see many people using mirrorless cameras from many different manufactures. By the photos they are taking with their mirrorless cameras, they don't appear to be photo enthusiasts, but rather just a person with a camera taking pictures.
2. The latest sales figures show mirrorless cameras will most likely outsell DSLR cameras this year. Surely all those sales are not going to well heeled enthusiasts.
p.10 #5 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Beni wrote:
Nokia couldn't provide what the market demanded. Canon is providing exactly what the ILC market wants (as much of it as remains). The majority of the market who don't read forums, don't know of the concept of brand wars, what DR means but do know that it's a rock solid lineup in both bodies running the full gamut of resolution requirements, huge lens lineup running the full gamut of necessity at competitive prices and with renown support and availability worldwide. The same people who can't work out why they should pay more for slightly smaller, less ergonomic, more fragile cameras using more expensive lenses and a question mark about support. The advantages of FF mirrorless, such as they are, appeal far more to the well heeled enthusiast and pixel peeper than the pro or the soccer mom.
If Canon dies it will be due to smartphones and waning interest in dedication to photography in general in age of utter and complete imagery saturation and the 1 second pause and swipe Instagram attention span (in my view a far greater danger to manufacturers than the smartphone itself which created the problem). Oh and every other ILC manufacturer will be in just as much trouble.
I still think that Nikon has been a leader in making 'photographers' cameras since the D3 and D700. I played with the Z series next to one of our A7rIII's recently, as a photographer I'd take the Z any day of the week. Nikon just seem to 'get it'. I wish they were stronger, I think history will conclude that they deserved better. They will probably be in serious trouble faster than the other two. That said Sony is well known for pulling the plug on entire lines if the market changes, even if those lines once defined them which cameras do not as yet. They are a technology company, not a camera company. Canon has built their identity and brand around cameras and have the financial umph to keep it going. In all honesty I'd assume that canon's approach of 'plenty good enough for most' will keep its head above water the longest.
In some segments, maybe. In others not so much. https://www.bcnretail.com/market/detail/20190424_115433.html
Given their financial results in Q1 2019, the Imaging Unit reported an 81.6% collapse in operating profit from Q1 2018, on the back of a 23% drop in camera sales over the same period ($229.8 million to $42 million). In addition they had a $16.9 million deficit in broadcast/cinema cameras (not part of Imaging Unit). This doesn't sound like a product mix, the market "exactly wants".
Brand perception is still positive, but we don't know how that will change. Canon is trying to change marketing drastically. “This is not an advertising campaign it’s a brand relaunch and repositioning and it’s around content and inspiration through the whole customer journey,” he concludes. https://www.marketingweek.com/2018/05/11/canon-reframing-disruption/
Generally I think that bashing Sony as being a Tech instead of a camera company is ill placed. I see it as an advantage, being able to profit from developments in sensor tech or smartphone tech or AI. Pulling the plug on an entire line is something not only Sony did. Nikon 1-series comes to my mind. Cancelling the DL series is another. Canon changed mounts several times.
Canon R mount in 1959, FL mount in 64, FD mount in 1971, EF mount in 1987, EF-S 2003, EF-m mount 2012, RF mount in 2018.
p.10 #6 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Beni wrote:
[...]In all honesty I'd assume that canon's approach of 'plenty good enough for most' will keep its head above water the longest.
And here I think comes the problem. It is the smartphones that are now "good enough for most". No more need for P&S and Rebels. And, for the few enthusiasts willing to go past the smartphone, you need to do something outstanding in order to capture their imagination. "Good enough" is not enough anymore.
p.10 #7 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Beni wrote:
In all honesty I'd assume that canon's approach of 'plenty good enough for most' will keep its head above water the longest.
Canon can only use 'plenty good enough for most' and their financial and marketing strength for so long. This approach is already starting to catch up with them and if DSLRs trend down as aggressively as they appear to be, in my opinion Canon could find themselves in a much more challenging position than you think.
p.10 #8 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
I think it's too late for Canon/Nikon when it comes to mirrorless world. Sony has already won the biggest marketshare. It will be an almost impossible battle to convince those who switch to Sony recently to go back to Canon.
Theses are the things Canon needs to do to succeed :
1. Professional mirrorless camera series to compete with the A9.
2. Focus on video features. People want 4K60fps minimal with H.265 or ProRes RAW. Why not go the extra miles and offer 8K video. You can't just aim for status quo now. You have to strive pass your competitor.
3. 2 cards slot (duh) plus automatic cloud backup as you shoot while tethered to your smartphone.
4. EyeAF + Face Detection + Animal AF better than Sony.
5. at least 20 fps with no blackout
6. 100 RAW buffer
7. Last but not least a BIS sensor that can actually compete with Sony sensor. My biggest gripe with Canon over the past few years. Their sensor is definitely inferior to it's competitor.
8. Wishful list : Global shutter.
p.10 #9 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
fogboundturtle wrote:
I think it's too late for Canon/Nikon when it comes to mirrorless world. Sony has already won the biggest marketshare. It will be an almost impossible battle to convince those who switch to Sony recently to go back to Canon.
But the biggest battle is going to be for the extensive Canon and Nikon DSLR user base that will convert to mirrorless (whether they know this or not ). That battle is happening now but the outcome is to be determined.
p.10 #10 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Nikon's view of the market seems to be very different from what the rest of the industry is saying. This interview with Nikons Executive VP of Sales, Marketing, Communication was published just yesterday. On May 9th we will see whether this is just marketing BSD or whether Nikon is seeing as strong business as this guy is saying.
I find it interesting that Nikon is still wanting to talk about the D850 in the opening rather than the new Z cameras. Also stressing the strength in CAPS-C when they have no Mirrorless plans announced for APS-C.
What do you guys think? Reality, Marketing, or Blinders on?
p.10 #11 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
RobCD wrote:
But the biggest battle is going to be for the extensive Canon and Nikon DSLR user base that will convert to mirrorless (whether they know this or not ). That battle is happening now but the outcome is to be determined.
Mirrorless sales production/sales dropped 10% in Q1/2019. DSLR production/sales dropped around 40% at same period so DSLR sales are in a freefall. To me this looks like photographers have accepted the demise of DSLR and stopped investing money to DSLR systems, but are not switching to mirrorless in numbers. A lot of people are saying "next gen will be better" about Canon/Nikon FF mirrorless, maybe people are just waiting to dust to settle in FF mirrorless competition and/or their chosen manufacturer to improved offering.
p.10 #12 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
vdo1 wrote:
And here I think comes the problem. It is the smartphones that are now "good enough for most". No more need for P&S and Rebels. And, for the few enthusiasts willing to go past the smartphone, you need to do something outstanding in order to capture their imagination. "Good enough" is not enough anymore.
IMO, one of the main areas ILC makers need to concentrate on, if they want to lure smartphone users, is to eliminate the need to post-process images. They need to have JPGs come straight from the camera as polished as a smartphone with the ability to seamlessly allow them to put those images out to the Internet. Then they tout the added abilities ILCs bring like low light capability, longer zoom ranges, better bokeh etc. One of the biggest drawbacks of using an ILC these days is the need to post process RAW files to get polished JPG images. Even a person like me, a life long ILC user, is getting tired of having to sit at a computer to turn a photo from an ILC into a decent JPG image.
I wonder if any of the camera makers get this. It is simple to see. Adopting computational photography, an Android based OS and adding a SIM card slot to an ILC would make for a camera I couldn't wait to get my hands on. This formula is tailor made for Olympus and could save MFT from going extinct.
p.10 #13 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
RobCD wrote:
But the biggest battle is going to be for the extensive Canon and Nikon DSLR user base that will convert to mirrorless (whether they know this or not ). That battle is happening now but the outcome is to be determined.
The problem for Canon and Nikon is that they need to keep 90+% of those willing to switch. I don't see this as even a remote possibility unless they have some very compelling products.
p.10 #14 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
PicGuy wrote:
IMO, one of the main areas ILC makers need to concentrate on, if they want to lure smartphone users, is to eliminate the need to post-process images. They need to have JPGs come straight from the camera as polished as a smartphone with the ability to seamlessly allow them to put those images out to the Internet. Then they tout the added abilities ILCs bring like low light capability, longer zoom ranges, better bokeh etc. One of the biggest drawbacks of using an ILC these days is the need to post process RAW files to get polished JPG images. Even a person like me, a life long ILC user, is getting tired of having to sit at a computer to turn a photo from an ILC into a decent JPG image.
I wonder if any of the camera makers get this. It is simple to see. Adopting computational photography, an Android based OS and adding a SIM card slot to an ILC would make for a camera I couldn't wait to get my hands on. This formula is tailor made for Olympus and could save MFT from going extinct....Show more →
Fuji does that very well. their JPG is quite good OoC. They also have very good picture style. This is why they are doing well.
p.10 #15 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1bwana1 wrote:
Nikon's view of the market seems to be very different from what the rest of the industry is saying. This interview with Nikons Executive VP of Sales, Marketing, Communication was published just yesterday. On May 9th we will see whether this is just marketing BSD or whether Nikon is seeing as strong business as this guy is saying.
I find it interesting that Nikon is still wanting to talk about the D850 in the opening rather than the new Z cameras. Also stressing the strength in CAPS-C when they have no Mirrorless plans announced for APS-C.
What do you guys think? Reality, Marketing, or Blinders on?
I am very sceptic when I hear the words "brand ambassador". Do people really expect an honest review from ambassadors who are more or less paid by the brand and receive gear for free to test (positively)? Same is on many YouTube photo gear-related videos - I try to avoid following all those who represent a specific photo brand. They just advertise for a specific product but rarely criticize to avoid endangering their own position with the company they work for. So I don't think that the Z6/Z7 cameras are reviewed "honestly" by brand ambassadors as mentioned in the article.
He indirectly admits that the Z6/Z7 cameras don't replace a professional DSLR like the D850 yet by saying that they both are used by customers in parallel with each other. That's probably true - I also know one D850 photographer who exactly does this with his recently purchased Z6.
p.10 #16 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
PicGuy wrote:
IMO, one of the main areas ILC makers need to concentrate on, if they want to lure smartphone users, is to eliminate the need to post-process images. They need to have JPGs come straight from the camera as polished as a smartphone with the ability to seamlessly allow them to put those images out to the Internet. Then they tout the added abilities ILCs bring like low light capability, longer zoom ranges, better bokeh etc. One of the biggest drawbacks of using an ILC these days is the need to post process RAW files to get polished JPG images. Even a person like me, a life long ILC user, is getting tired of having to sit at a computer to turn a photo from an ILC into a decent JPG image.
I wonder if any of the camera makers get this. It is simple to see. Adopting computational photography, an Android based OS and adding a SIM card slot to an ILC would make for a camera I couldn't wait to get my hands on. This formula is tailor made for Olympus and could save MFT from going extinct....Show more →
Guess this was the idea behind the Zeiss ZX1. Allow some in-camera processing *after* the shot was taken. And then upload it anywhere. Like a smartphone except with big lens and sensor.
p.10 #17 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
tn1krr wrote:
Mirrorless sales production/sales dropped 10% in Q1/2019. DSLR production/sales dropped around 40% at same period so DSLR sales are in a freefall. To me this looks like photographers have accepted the demise of DSLR and stopped investing money to DSLR systems, but are not switching to mirrorless in numbers. A lot of people are saying "next gen will be better" about Canon/Nikon FF mirrorless, maybe people are just waiting to dust to settle in FF mirrorless competition and/or their chosen manufacturer to improved offering.
Yes, I think you're right. I could see many if not most DSLR users only buying what they absolutely must have and otherwise waiting for the dust to settle.
p.10 #18 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
PicGuy wrote:
The problem for Canon and Nikon is that they need to keep 90+% of those willing to switch. I don't see this as even a remote possibility unless they have some very compelling products.
I'm not sure where you're getting the 90+ number from but I fully expect Canon and Nikon to win back some users that switched to Sony. From what I've observed there is no shortage of reluctant Sony users that begrudgingly switched to Sony because Canon and Nikon didn't have their act together. But I agree that Canon and Nikon need to bring their A game and release compelling mirrorless cameras and lenses going forward. They were close in some ways with the initial offerings but probably need to step it up more.
p.10 #19 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
RobCD wrote:
I'm not sure where you're getting the 90+ number from but I fully expect Canon and Nikon to win back some users that switched to Sony. From what I've observed there is no shortage of reluctant Sony users that begrudgingly switched to Sony because Canon and Nikon didn't have their act together.
Most people switching to Sony came indeed from Canon and not from Nikon - Nikon had the better Sony sensors at the time implemented in their professional DSLRs. I doubt that there will be a large number of users flipping back to Canon at this point and also in the future - Canon needs to step up their FF MLCs severely both with bringing a novel high MP/high DR sensor, features like IBIS which is already sort of standard AND lower competitive price. I don't think that this will happen soon.
p.10 #20 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
fogboundturtle wrote:
Fuji does that very well. their JPG is quite good OoC. They also have very good picture style. This is why they are doing well.
Is Fuji doing well? Last year the big 3 ( Canon, Nikon and Sony ) collectively increased their market share of the ILC market at the demise of the rest of the industry. I believe the big 3 own almost 90% of the market.
). That battle is happening now but the outcome is to be determined.