Re: FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
sflxn wrote:
There is a difference between making a good product and being able to survive. It would be informative if we were able to monitor the growth/decline of these cropped systems. I still don't believe they will survive regardless of how well designed and built those systems are. The total supply of systems buyers is shrinking by the day. I truly do not believe there is a fix pool of high end system buyers even if the lower end buyers drop out.
The numbers for APS-C sales needs to account for DSLR and MILC sales independently to get a true idea of how the APS-C segment is behaving. My guess is since a large number APS-C sales have been tied to DSLRs any big declines are due to the overall drop in DSLR sales. Canon has had strong MILC APS-C sales in Japan for many years but their numbers decline in other parts of the world. How much is something I find hard to determine.
Canon has gained market share in APS-C MILC by going after the bottom feeders with their EOS M line (the M50 in particular). Profit margins are low with this strategy. Sony and Fuji are going for the enthusiast segment where good profit margins are found. IMO, Canon's big problem with their strategy is the low end is where the most intensity of the smartphone cut into ILC will be felt. They will be forced to upscale their APS-C MILCs to compete against Sony and Fuji or they will very likely be forced out of this market segment. This might be why Sony has abandoned competing in the segment Canon is dominating as they know this market segment isn't a good long term investment of resources. Canon might be concentrating on the low end segment mostly likely because they can't compete anywhere else with the technology they currently use.
sflxn wrote:As lower end buyers drop out, revenues fall, investments fall. For these makers to make up for that, they will raise prices. We saw that evidence with Pana and Oly latest offerings. When prices increases, fewer enthusiasts will buy. Just watch whether Fuji and others start cutting lower end models from their offerings as the m43 guys have done. That will signal the beginning of the end.
I think the $1k and up APS-C MILC market segment is safe for a while from the smartphone assault. This bodes well for Sony, Fuji and Nikon if they enter this segment with the Z mount. Also, Nikon currently is far better positioned than Canon to enter this market as they have access to Sony sensors and have produced compelling cameras with more competitive tech like IBIS. I don't think prices in this segment will fall below $1.5k to $1k while older generation models will to fill the sub $1k segment.
sflxn wrote:
Also, look at the ridiculous prices for medium format now. That is where 35mm is heading. How many enthusiasts will buy a $4k Fuji apsc or a $10k Sony FF? It's coming.
Not many. This is why I think APS-C as currently configured will have a place in in the ILC market for at least another 5-10 years. The cameras Sony and Fuji are offering these days gives users a great set of features and sensor performance they isn't that for off from APS-C. Combine this with the size and weight advantage for APS-C cameras and lenses and I don't see the demise of APS-C anytime soon.
May 01, 2019 at 08:02 PM
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