p.12 #1 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
PicGuy wrote:
I think the $1k and up APS-C MILC market segment is safe for a while from the smartphone assault. This bodes well for Sony, Fuji and Nikon if they enter this segment with the Z mount. Also, Nikon currently is far better positioned than Canon to enter this market as they have access to Sony sensors and have produced compelling cameras with more competitive tech like IBIS. I don't think prices in this segment will fall below $1.5k to $1k while older generation models will to fill the sub $1k segment.
I am not so sure I agree. $1k and up APS-C MILC are under pressure from both smartphone (with zoom lens and computational photography) and $1k FF cameras (e.g. A7II). As much as some people want to believe "high-end" aps-c and m43 will continue to do well, it doesn't make it so. These next generation of smartphones are getting perilously close in image quality. People can pick up a $1k A7II today and within the next 2 years, they will be able to pick up the A7III for $1k. I simply don't see how a Fuji XT-4, Oly E-M1x, Panasonic GH-6 can compete with a FF camera as good as the A7III for half the price (in 2 years).
Also, as Tamron said, APS-C users tend to buy 1 or 2 cheap lenses. If you visit the m43 forums, they cry about high prices of lenses and bodies. They have a much lower barrier to switching to FF or all smartphones.
p.12 #2 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
chez wrote:
Do you have a reference to these MILC numbers you bring up? I've never seen any.
A good bellwether to look at is Japan as it is typically a place where Canon does very well with market share and reliably, frequently updated data is available. If they are doing poorly there then they are likely doing worse in other regional markets around the world. The numbers for overall MILC market share for March 2019 have Canon with two cameras in the top ten. They are the M50 at #1 and the lowly M100 at #4 for a combined market share of 27% even. Sony has four cameras in the top ten (A6400, A6000, A7/3, A5100) for a total combined market share of 25.3%. There isn't much space between these two in practical terms. However, if you look at the camera models making up these numbers it is telling. Canon's two models are entry level low budget ones. Sony's models run the spectrum from budget to mid level FF. Two are so old that Sony likely makes a decent profit on them due to their low cost parts nd R&D being recouped years ago. IMO, Sony's market share is much more stable and likely generates more profit. If it is this close in Japan then in other parts of the world market share numbers for Canon with MILC is likely the same, or worse.
Now let's look at FF MILC market share in Japan. This is where the real profits lie. BCN has the Canon R flat lining at 10%-12% from 3/11/19 to 4/8/19. The RP was at 35% on 3/11/19 and has cratered to 14% on 4/8/19. This is a massive drop occurring in less than a month for a new launch. The A7/2 is holding steady at around 6%. The Nikon Z6 has risen to 9% as of 4/8/19. The Sony A7/3 has gone from a market share of 28% on 3/11/19 to 42% on 4/8/19. Sony has far more market share in the FF MILC market segment in Japan than the other brands combined. I suspect this is the case or better, in most other regions of the world. Especially for Canon since Japan is their home country where brand loyalty is high. These numbers don't bode well for Canon going forward if they do not innovate. The RP should be selling like hotcakes in Japan but it has tanked in less than a month along with the R languishing at 10%-12% market share while the A7/3 has grown its market share 14% in less than 30 days.
The above shows just how weak Canon is in the MILC market segment. Their strategy of gaining market share based on non-competitive products is failing miserably. Not even the RP priced at an insanely low level is working for them. They have to innovate and be more competitive if they are going to be a survivor in the MILC arena. It is a very tough market to compete in and Canon's past reputation means little going forward. Supporting links are below.
p.12 #3 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
sflxn wrote:
I am not so sure I agree. $1k and up APS-C MILC are under pressure from both smartphone (with zoom lens and computational photography) and $1k FF cameras (e.g. A7II). As much as some people want to believe "high-end" aps-c and m43 will continue to do well, it doesn't make it so. These next generation of smartphones are getting perilously close in image quality. People can pick up a $1k A7II today and within the next 2 years, they will be able to pick up the A7III for $1k. I simply don't see how a Fuji XT-4, Oly E-M1x, Panasonic GH-6 can compete with a FF camera as good as the A7III for half the price (in 2 years). ...Show more →
I agree that the operating space for APS-C MILC is getting thinner but it will still be big enough to keep APS-C alive for another 5-10 years or more, IMO. APS-C biggest attribute is it allows for small, lightweight, less expensive gear. There is a definite market for this type of camera system. I would even venture to say that most FF owners also have an APS-C body lying around to use in less critical shooting situations or where using expensive gear is too risky. My next camera purchase will be APS-C in the $1k-$1.5k range. If it gets to the point smartphones are taking out APS-C then they will also be taking large bites out of FF because there just isn't that large of a performance gap between the two sensor types.
sflxn wrote:
Also, as Tamron said, APS-C users tend to buy 1 or 2 cheap lenses. If you visit the m43 forums, they cry about high prices of lenses and bodies. They have a much lower barrier to switching to FF or all smartphones.
The low end users buy one or two inexpensive lenses. The people buying $1k-$1.5k models spend money on lenses. Many spend a lot of money on lenses and a good number of them are FF lenses. For third party lens makers the death of DSLRs in going to hit them hard. IMO, this is why they are pulling back. I can see why they are bearish on APS-C.
p.12 #4 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
ggreene wrote:
If you look at the current Amazon top selling ML cameras, it's dominated by various APS-C camera's. Many with kit lenses which may explain why 3rd party manufacturers don't see lens sales. Most people never go beyond the kit lens.
That seems like a lot of volume to throw away if I was a camera maker in a time of market decline.
I doubt FF camera prices are high enough yet to sustain the market and the R+D on their own. One blessing is that Sony at least doesn't have to care about camera sensor sales as cell phones largely drive their R+D. Will they be happy propping up a minuscule FF camera market? IDK. ...Show more →
Even with smartphones decimating the P&S segment there are still a lot of P&S camera models being made and sold from ultra cheap to ultra expensive. This is a good indicator that APS-C will die a very slow death if it dies at all.
p.12 #5 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
PicGuy wrote:
I agree that the operating space for APS-C MILC is getting thinner but it will still be big enough to keep APS-C alive for another 5-10 years or more, IMO. APS-C biggest attribute is it allows for small, lightweight, less expensive gear. There is a definite market for this type of camera system. I would even venture to say that most FF owners also have an APS-C body lying around to use in less critical shooting situations or where using expensive gear is too risky. My next camera purchase will be APS-C in the $1k-$1.5k range. If it gets to the point smartphones are taking out APS-C then they will also be taking large bites out of FF because there just isn't that large of a performance gap between the two sensor types.
The low end users buy one or two inexpensive lenses. The people buying $1k-$1.5k models spend money on lenses. Many spend a lot of money on lenses and a good number of them are FF lenses. For third party lens makers the death of DSLRs in going to hit them hard. IMO, this is why they are pulling back. I can see why they are bearish on APS-C....Show more →
I have never owned an APS camera, film or digital. When they introduced it to film I decided it was a scam. And I have never revisited the subject since then.
p.12 #6 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
PicGuy wrote:
I agree that the operating space for APS-C MILC is getting thinner but it will still be big enough to keep APS-C alive for another 5-10 years or more, IMO. APS-C biggest attribute is it allows for small, lightweight, less expensive gear. There is a definite market for this type of camera system. I would even venture to say that most FF owners also have an APS-C body lying around to use in less critical shooting situations or where using expensive gear is too risky. My next camera purchase will be APS-C in the $1k-$1.5k range. If it gets to the point smartphones are taking out APS-C then they will also be taking large bites out of FF because there just isn't that large of a performance gap between the two sensor types. ...Show more →
There is definitely a market for everything, but are those markets profitable? What if there is a market for 100 APS-C cameras, would Fuji or some other company comply? No. It wouldn't be profitable. Believing something and wanting something to be true doesn't make it so. Can there be a 5-10yr window for cropped sensors? Maybe, but I don't believe there is. We all thought DSLRs would be last to get hit, but here we are today with that market in rapid decline. APS-C is already in decline. The only market that is holding is FF mirrorless... for now. I give FF mirrorless less than 2 years before it starts declining also. Nothing is unique or special about aps-c that protects it from decline. The current decline will accelerate, just as it did for p&s, m43, and DSLRs. I'm not sure why you think APS-C is indestructible. Zeiss, Tamron and others have already said that FF is holding steady and APS-C is declining rapidly. I'm pretty sure most of the DSLR declines are in the APS-C category.
Go enjoy your Fuji APS-C, but don't think that your ownership of it is a sign that APS-C is indestructible. It's already collapsing.
p.12 #7 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
There’s a sufficient number of small full frame FE-mount lenses from Sony, Voigtländer and even Zeiss, that I see no reason to own an APS-C camera or APS-C lenses anymore.
Advantage: I only need to own FE-mount full frame cameras/lenses => Less money spent
The CIPA numbers I refered above also shows APS-C lenses declining about 30% in one year. I think APS-C cameras follow the APS-C lens decline closely.
p.12 #8 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
bjornthun wrote:
The CIPA numbers I refered above also shows APS-C lenses declining about 30% in one year. I think APS-C cameras follow the APS-C lens decline closely.
Yes, in Q1/2019 over 38% of the mirrorless lens sold were FF and their share is increaging quite fast, in 2017 this was around 25%. By the cipa numbers.
p.12 #9 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
What’s with all this doom and gloom, fwiw the Nikon F6 is still in production. And if you browse the B&H catalog, you’ll notice lots of other niche stuff. Things don’t disappear overnight. There will be P&S cameras and APS cameras and whatnot for quite a while. They will just not be mainstream anymore.
[…] for cameras, which are mainly a consumer-oriented product, the overall market continues to shrink due to improvement in smartphone camera features. Even against this backdrop, however, we continue to see positive growth in mirrorless cameras, known for their compact and light-weight designs, thanks to improvements in performance, which is now on par with DSLRs.
Although we have been taking a cautious approach to mirrorless cameras until recently, we have begun to successively launch strategic models, and will strive to further enhance our lineup going forward as well. The overall market will continue to shrink for some time, however, we will work to support our camera business by focusing management resources on the growing market segment of mirrorless cameras."
p.12 #13 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
LBJ2 wrote:
To me, this means possibly there is a vacancy for their coming Pro mirrorless model.
No no look at the font size for Mirrorless vs DSLR and the placement of the labels. That is intentional, these things don’t get published without several levels of approval.
p.12 #14 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
sflxn wrote:
There is definitely a market for everything, but are those markets profitable? What if there is a market for 100 APS-C cameras, would Fuji or some other company comply? No. It wouldn't be profitable. Believing something and wanting something to be true doesn't make it so. Can there be a 5-10yr window for cropped sensors? Maybe, but I don't believe there is. We all thought DSLRs would be last to get hit, but here we are today with that market in rapid decline. APS-C is already in decline. The only market that is holding is FF mirrorless... for now. I give FF mirrorless less than 2 years before it starts declining also. Nothing is unique or special about aps-c that protects it from decline. The current decline will accelerate, just as it did for p&s, m43, and DSLRs. I'm not sure why you think APS-C is indestructible. Zeiss, Tamron and others have already said that FF is holding steady and APS-C is declining rapidly. I'm pretty sure most of the DSLR declines are in the APS-C category.
Go enjoy your Fuji APS-C, but don't think that your ownership of it is a sign that APS-C is indestructible. It's already collapsing....Show more →
I think many are extrapolating the decline of DSLRs as the end of certain camera segments. I saw the end of the DSLRs coming years ago when I bought a M3. APS-C MILC is fairly steady and will grow as APS-C DSLR options disappear. As I stated in another reply, the P&S segment still offers many models at many price points even after being ravaged by the smartphone industry. It is harder to completely kill off a dedicated camera market segment than we might think. APS-C still outsells FF by a wide margin and I expect this will continue to be the case for years to come which will help to keep APS-C alive.
I don't have delusions that my personal choices are a guarantee of what will happen at a larger scale. However, when one has been moving in unison with the larger "herd" for decades (i.e. moving from film to DLSR to MILC) it gives some confidence that individual choices can be extrapolated to represent group trends.
p.12 #15 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
vdo1 wrote:
No no look at the font size for Mirrorless vs DSLR and the placement of the labels. That is intentional, these things don’t get published without several levels of approval.
I wonder why the 5Ds(R) finds no mentioning in the chart since this is currently Canon's only high res FF camera. Maybe it was left out intentionally to avoid readers from asking the question when a high res MLC would be coming?
p.12 #16 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
bjornthun wrote:
There’s a sufficient number of small full frame FE-mount lenses from Sony, Voigtländer and even Zeiss, that I see no reason to own an APS-C camera or APS-C lenses anymore.
Advantage: I only need to own FE-mount full frame cameras/lenses => Less money spent
The CIPA numbers I refered above also shows APS-C lenses declining about 30% in one year. I think APS-C cameras follow the APS-C lens decline closely.
It might be that APS-C lens decline is a result of the decline of APS-C DSLR sales. Also, for a company like Sony the at has a unified mount between APS-C and FF, being able to tell if a lens sale is for APS-C or FF is very difficult. The same goes for the EF-M mount as many M camera owners use the adapter to mount EF lenses. One thing is certain in that the decline of what is currently the largest market segment, DSLRs, will cause sales of all lenses, not exclusive to MILC use, to drop for Canon and Nikon. This will affect overall industry numbers as DSLR decline further.
p.12 #17 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
LBJ2 wrote:
To me, this means possibly there is a vacancy for their coming Pro mirrorless model.
Would be nice but they've shown no signs of having the processing power to do it. The one rumor I read on it says another DSLR for the 2020 Olympics. I have more hope for an A9II that's larger with better weather resistance.
I might be adding 1+1=3 but to me the Canon digram I posted a few comments prior displays a gapping hole in the Pro Mirrorless section of the chart.
P.S. Am very surprised Canon described the 5DIV as Advanced Amateur category.
Same old tactic "there will be something great coming so don't buy anything yet, especially not from our competitors". "Get a R for now and a bunch of lenses". Then 5 years later you get an R MkII with no substantial improvements. "Next one will be the great one, just have a little patience". Ha ha.
The crop lens market is half the value of the full frame and larger lens value for the three first months of 2019. In number of lenses it’s still about 60-70% larger. The crop lens market has been shrinking for a while and is down about 30% in one year, while full frame holds steady. Tamron’s assertions about the market seems correct to me.
I guess they are counting all lenses that can be used on FF as "FF lenses", but the majority of those (especially tele primes and zooms) might still be used on APS-C DSLRs...
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ggreene wrote:
If you look at the current Amazon top selling ML cameras, it's dominated by various APS-C camera's. Many with kit lenses which may explain why 3rd party manufacturers don't see lens sales. Most people never go beyond the kit lens.
That seems like a lot of volume to throw away if I was a camera maker in a time of market decline.
I doubt FF camera prices are high enough yet to sustain the market and the R+D on their own. One blessing is that Sony at least doesn't have to care about camera sensor sales as cell phones largely drive their R+D. Will they be happy propping up a minuscule FF camera market? IDK. ...Show more →
Agree, it might be true that there is little profit potential for third party lens companies in making APS-C specific lenses, but that doesn't mean there is no longer a market for APS-C cameras or lenses for them. Things might be different if manufacturers had bothered to create better APS-C specific lenses in the past, instead of the usual dim and cheap consumer zooms that force many to move to FF if they want better lenses.
I think part of this FF emphasis is temporary, because the surge of new and/or cheaper FF DSLR bodies will mean some catch-up in FF lens sales (either native or using mount adapters).
