p.2 #1 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
henry albert wrote:
Well, it was also an absolute piece of crap that found zero traction among Nikon's core pro users, PJs. I think we can forgive Nikon execs who looked at the first gen Sony FFs, and decided not to besmirch their reputation by emulating Sony -- not to mention wasting scarce resources on the bleeding edge. From a PJ perspective, Sony's first iterations weren't ready for prime time. It really wasn't until the A9 that Sony produced a top tier FF mirrorless that attracted serious consideration.
Well, those core pro and PJs can stick to Nikon, but they aren't what sustain the brand. I guess this kind of mentality here that is what set Nikon back a gen. Or two behind Sony and lost their 2nd place in the market. Nikon did try mirrorless, but the 1 failed miserably. Years later, it's not the A9 that prompted Nikon to join the mirrorless but the success of Sony in the high margin FF market that forced Nikon to be more serious. It has never been about a small small niche of pro that carried the brand through the financial hardships.
p.2 #2 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1bwana1 wrote:
I am sure you are not alone in this. One of the reasons I question the wisdom of Nikon's aggressive barriers to lens compatibility. Canon still has a chance to get you back. Once someone leaves Nikon, going back will be much harder.
Cross-platform lens compatibility is one interesting area to watch as the ILC market shrinks but also matures. MILC adapters will get better. 3rd party optics companies will strive to make their lenses work across platforms. The R&D of rvs engineering the AF of Canikon = more sales. Then one can pick and choose optics, within set barriers. In a recent interview on dpr, Yamaki-San, CEO of Sigma, said they are watching the Canon and Nikon MILC systems closely. He further admits if they are successful [ie camera ownership] it's worth the cost of rvs engineering their respective AF systems for 3rd Party lenses.
Here the Z mount is the intriguing one. Its shortest throat compared to the others means a Z MILC can focus nearly all lenses properly but Z-Nikkors only work on the Z-mount. This restricts sales of the latter to use on Nikon cameras only. OTH, potentially, the owner of a Z Nikon has widest choice of optics (within reason).
p.2 #3 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
So, a company that had a 5 year headstart on FF mirrorless has ~50% share of the market in Japan in March 2019. Those that had 70+% share of DSLR sales and only entered FF mirrorless less than a year ago have about 25% and ~10% market share. Hardly surprising. I'll check again in 2023.
If we recall where Sony DSLRs were, they had no option but to change. It looks like great foresight in 2019 but if they didn't do something different like focus on Mirrorless in 2013 we might not be talking about Sony's imaging business now(excl the sensor division). They did the right thing for an outsold and outperformed division. I don't begrudge them at all but also think it very shortsighted to make bold predictions within a year of Nikon and Canon entering FF mirrorless. Reason why some of us aren't bothered is our DSLR's still work and still allows us to enjoy photography. If our delay in buying the new tools results in the death of Nikon or Canon, well, they probably didn't have much of a future then.
Z lenses looking good so far though. Cameras seem like the first gen products that they are though price suggests otherwise. I expect that Nikon is not resting. I'm patient.
p.2 #4 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
hiepphotog wrote:
Well, those core pro and PJs can stick to Nikon, but they aren't what sustain the brand. I guess this kind of mentality here that is what set Nikon back a gen. Or two behind Sony and lost their 2nd place in the market. Nikon did try mirrorless, but the 1 failed miserably. Years later, it's not the A9 that prompted Nikon to join the mirrorless but the success of Sony in the high margin FF market that forced Nikon to be more serious. It has never been about a small small niche of pro that carried the brand through the financial hardships....Show more →
p.2 #5 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
It was pretty clear for a while that Nikon faces a slow uptake and/or significant competitive pressure. When I suggested on another thread that the indicators for that are the surprising volume of near-new bodies on the B&S forum; the ready availability of used/open box items on B&H, Adorama, and Amazon; and the abundance of discounting on Nikon's part some blasted my logic. Time will tell who is right.
When I suddenly decided to switch to mirrorless two months ago, there were only two reasons I did not go with Sony, despite their vastly larger selection of native lenses and well regarded bodies: my distaste for Sony ergonomics, and the absence of 14mm lens that does not require gargantuan filters. Ironically, as of late I have been one of the people who have questioned the tradeoffs Nikon has chosen to bake into the 14-30, though as I use the lens more my position on that topic is starting to soften quite a bit. My first "semi serious" outing with the Z6 + 14-30 was yesterday, and I am kinda liking the combination of experience and output :-)
On the topic of this thread, as long as the Z does not turn into an orphaned/neglected product, sort of like the 1, I could not care less what its market share is. There is only one additional lens that I need from Nikon - the equivalent of an 80-400 variable aperture zoom that is substantially lighter, and I will be set for a decade or so. Unfortunately, that lens is not explicitly listed on their roadmap at the moment, hopefully it is one of the TBA's in 2020-2021
p.2 #6 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
GroovyGeek wrote:
On the topic of this thread, as long as the Z does not turn into an orphaned/neglected product, sort of like the 1, I could not care less what its market share is.
I really don't think that will happen. The Z's have the FF support of Nikon's existing lenses and are really fine small cameras.
p.2 #8 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
henry albert wrote:
Well, it was also an absolute piece of crap that found zero traction among Nikon's core pro users, PJs. I think we can forgive Nikon execs who looked at the first gen Sony FFs, and decided not to besmirch their reputation by emulating Sony -- not to mention wasting scarce resources on the bleeding edge. From a PJ perspective, Sony's first iterations weren't ready for prime time. It really wasn't until the A9 that Sony produced a top tier FF mirrorless that attracted serious consideration.
I disagree here. I am still using the A7R and love it! Yes, it had a few flaws, but they never were a deal breaker for me personally. Love the sensor and adaptability of third party lenses with this camera! The ergonomic design is IMO better than the bigger MLC Sony cameras currently. What Sony did with the first A7(R, S) generation was outstanding IMO and made history in photography.
p.2 #9 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
retrofocus wrote:
I disagree here. I am still using the A7R and love it! Yes, it had a few flaws, but they never were a deal breaker for me personally. Love the sensor and adaptability of third party lenses with this camera! The ergonomic design is IMO better than the bigger MLC Sony cameras currently. What Sony did with the first A7(R, S) generation was outstanding IMO and made history in photography.
Well, he described himself as the core Nikonian so I believe that's why he missed the big migration back when Sony announced their first FF mirrorless. So many times I wanted to jump on the D800 cause it was THE FF camera back then, but Sony made it easy with the announcement. It was the first hurdle to overcome for mirrorless then. Sony first gen. FF mirrorless didn't have the advanced tech of Canikon first. gen. FF mirrorless but certainly it made more impact there as the first platform to be able to use most of the lenses out there.
p.2 #10 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
SiMuMe wrote:
So, a company that had a 5 year headstart on FF mirrorless has ~50% share of the market in Japan in March 2019. Those that had 70+% share of DSLR sales and only entered FF mirrorless less than a year ago have about 25% and ~10% market share. Hardly surprising. I'll check again in 2023.
If we recall where Sony DSLRs were, they had no option but to change. It looks like great foresight in 2019 but if they didn't do something different like focus on Mirrorless in 2013 we might not be talking about Sony's imaging business now(excl the sensor division). They did the right thing for an outsold and outperformed division. I don't begrudge them at all but also think it very shortsighted to make bold predictions within a year of Nikon and Canon entering FF mirrorless. Reason why some of us aren't bothered is our DSLR's still work and still allows us to enjoy photography. If our delay in buying the new tools results in the death of Nikon or Canon, well, they probably didn't have much of a future then.
Z lenses looking good so far though. Cameras seem like the first gen products that they are though price suggests otherwise. I expect that Nikon is not resting. I'm patient. ...Show more →
Same can be said about Canikon with their headstart in term of lenses and user base. It's surprising that we actually see dips in Canikon sale instead of a steady rise due to the straight convert from their DSLR users to mirrorless. Sony sale still rises indicating system switching is still happening (likely) and/or influx of new FF users (less likely).
I think both Nikon and hardcore Nikon users might want to take this more seriously. Everyone is moving full steam ahead. Don't think that in 3-4 years down the road and somehow the difference will be equalized. At the same time, you're saying you're happy with your current tools and you don't want to buy in the hype, essentially, you're hurting your brand as well. Nikon will be in trouble if their hardcore fans are sitting on the sideline waiting for things to equalize before the jump. Less revenue means less R&D which means slower lens release and longer camera cycle.
With that, I don't want Sony to have the monopoly in this market either. I just hope Canikon wouldn't be so optimistic that time will solve all of their problems like some of you suggest here. They need to do something drastic to fight for the marketshare. We don't want to see another jewelry seller like Leica.
p.2 #11 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
hiepphotog wrote:
Same can be said about Canikon with their headstart in term of lenses and user base. It's surprising that we actually see dips in Canikon sale instead of a steady rise due to the straight convert from their DSLR users to mirrorless. Sony sale still rises indicating system switching is still happening (likely) and/or influx of new FF users (less likely).
I think both Nikon and hardcore Nikon users might want to take this more seriously. Everyone is moving full steam ahead. Don't think that in 3-4 years down the road and somehow the difference will be equalized. At the same time, you're saying you're happy with your current tools and you don't want to buy in the hype, essentially, you're hurting your brand as well. Nikon will be in trouble if their hardcore fans are sitting on the sideline waiting for things to equalize before the jump. Less revenue means less R&D which means slower lens release and longer camera cycle.
With that, I don't want Sony to have the monopoly in this market either. I just hope Canikon wouldn't be so optimistic that time will solve all of their problems like some of you suggest here. They need to do something drastic to fight for the marketshare. We don't want to see another jewelry seller like Leica....Show more →
Well said on "They need to do something drastic".
As the article in the OP mentioned, FF mirror-less is not an entry-level market today. A large percentage (or even most) users in this market will not be swayed by either:
1. lower priced entry level model (RP)
2. higher priced and overall copycat/inferior product from a certain 'hardcore' brand (Z7)
Canon and nikon need a well differentiated and obviously better product and simultaneously offer it at a lower than reasonable price point to stand a good chance in this new (to them) market. Something like their version of the A7III, which is selling so well not only because it challenges the competitors' flagship/pro level bodies in many aspects, but also because it is priced the same as the competitors' entry level FF bodies.
p.2 #14 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
nicolachel wrote:
2. higher priced and overall copycat/inferior product from a certain 'hardcore' brand (Z7)
In my view this perception is one of the biggest hurdles for Nikon to overcome. Whether true or not, I hear this from so many photographers, and salespeople in camera stores, and threads on the web forums. The specs, price, FTZ treatment, and performance at launch seems to have created this perception. It remains to be seen how damaging this is in the long run.
p.2 #15 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
This thread is not going to end well... again! As Luka mentioned we have 1 months sales in Japan and once again we are extrapolating and throwing out bait in both the Sony and Nikon thread without mention in the Canon thread.
The thread is suited for "General Gear Talk" thread as it waste time and energy in the Nikon and Sony thread. In the General Gear Talk thread it would allow those who wish to participate to choose rather being inundated every time we open the Nikon or Sony threads.
Recently we have had so much new gear and updates the dedicated threads should be reserved for that without "stirring the pot" discussions which end up badly and inundate the specific threads.
p.2 #16 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
nicolachel wrote:
For the parts that aren't supplied/gained by Sony such as the lenses and Nikon's profits?
From what I understand the sensor division at Sony treats the camera division much like a separate camera company. The sensor division wants all the $$$ it can get.
p.2 #18 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1bwana1 wrote:
In my view this perception is one of the biggest hurdles for Nikon to overcome. Whether true or not, I hear this from so many photographers, and salespeople in camera stores, and threads on the web forums. The specs, price, FTZ treatment, and performance at launch seems to have created this perception. It remains to be seen how damaging this is in the long run.
We heard far worse about Sony for a number of years and it didn't matter. If Nikon continues to move the system forward the right way, a couple of competitive disadvantages in the first generation won't matter in the long run.
p.2 #19 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
RobCD wrote:
We heard far worse about Sony for a number of years and it didn't matter. If Nikon continues to move the system forward the right way, a couple of competitive disadvantages in the first generation won't matter in the long run.
That is what I hope for, and frankly expect will happen. Best for everyone.
