p.1 #1 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
The latest from BNC on camera sales in Japan.
Sony, dominating and growing market share.
Canon, made a big play for volume at the low end which appears to be fading.
Nikon, at the bottom by a huge margin with no growth. Almost a non player market share wise. Sad....
What does Canon need to do to establish the market dominance in FF mirrorless that it traditionally held in DSLR? It looks like Canon's play of less camera for less money is not working.
What can Nikon do to compete, and not end up a small niche player in FF mirrorless. The Z cameras are clearly not doing well in the market. It looks like Nikon's play of less camera (still a pretty good one though) for more money is also not working.
p.1 #2 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
It is a forgone conclusion many less cameras are sold as a result of the very good picture quality of phones for everyday uses. It is also agreed upon fact that this means cameras with interchangeable lenses are for enthusiasts and professionals. So, it is a small niche market. Some players will fall away. But it will not be these three.
p.1 #3 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
I think Canon has/is missing the market. As cameras and sensors improve the gap between sensor sizes will narrow. Which means you can get similar performance, smaller package and similar/cheaper prices with a good APS-C package. Pros won’t go for a stripped down camera and enthusiasts aren’t dumb and want features. So who buys the RP?
Nikon is closer.. if they put more engineering in it or come out with more lenses. But they have a smaller base to begin with.
The good thing for Sony and bad for CaNikon is that Sony is generally poaching other system users or upgrading their own users. CaNikon more so is canabalizing their DSLR users though some are upgrading. Sony is the only one really pushing the market and it’s changing user behavior. Canon is trying with lenses and might get some traction if they release a competitive body. Nikon is trying to match Sony but it seems that’s not good enough...
p.1 #4 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
gdsf2 wrote:
It is a forgone conclusion many less cameras are sold as a result of the very good picture quality of phones for everyday uses. It is also agreed upon fact that this means cameras with interchangeable lenses are for enthusiasts and professionals. So, it is a small niche market. Some players will fall away. But it will not be these three.
Not fall away, but market share position is clearly in flux.
p.1 #8 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Dj R wrote:
Canon needs improve a ton including their sensor (dr/lowlight)
Nikon has to improve less, but still quite a bit.
the Z7 was drastically overpriced. Huge mistake.
It was probably overpriced but I don't think the price was that big of a factor. If the Z7 was $400 less at release I don't think it would have impacted sales that much. Just like Sony in the beginning or Sony with the A9, you need lenses to sell the cameras. Nikon is doing a good job with the lenses so far but they need to have a sense of urgency and make every decision count as there is not much margin for error these days. They also needs to deliver on the firmware update and probably be prepared for another firmware update later as they get closer to releasing new Z cameras. It's a marathon, not a sprint and Nikon has built the foundation correctly in my view but they have a lot of work to do. At some point though Nikon does need to deliver a camera and/or lens that surprises everyone whether that be the features and performance or price or both. Sony has done a great job with that whether we're talking about the A9 or the A7III or lenses like the 24 f1.4, they have been on a roll.
p.1 #10 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
These sales appear to be in Japan only. There are trends, but key data are missing. One is the Z7 released before the Z6 and EOS RP. Second, the global sales are a prerequisite to get a better insights across ILC market.
Nevertheless, have to jump to several releases at once.
1. Better firmware on timely releases with portal to registered users. The eagerly awaited May release will be a watershed in key respects.... a body of prospective investors are holding out to see what it fixes besides Eye-AF
2. More affordable Z5 FX camera is priority. Already overdue
3. Fix the FTZ so it gives full F-Nikkor compatibility ie the FTZd with AI ring and S'driver AF motor. This will sell a pile of Z cameras to established Nikon users, as well as support aspiring youngsters on a budget to get up and shooting
4. Get out the full range of Z lens wrt focal length. Thus the 70-200 f4 is the far far more urgent priority than a highly priced f0.95 Noct. So are 5-6 primes matching the IQ and price range of the 35 f1.8S and 50 f1.8S. Thus, fast track a 20 f1.8S and 105 f2S as soon as possible with the 85 f1.8S and 24 f1.8S. So by late 2019 - 1 year post 23 August 2018, there's a decent line up of excellent Z Nikkors. For those who build their Z-Nikon system with the Triple Dragon zooms, the sooner the better we see the 70-200 f2.8S to add to the superb 24-70 f2.8S
Still, it will be interesting to see the global sales data up to Dec 2019.
p.1 #11 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
I was a Nikon die hard for years (film and digital).
Nikon lost my $$ when they failed to match Sony step for step camera-wise. Bought the A7R, RII, and now RIII and sold all my Nikon bodies & lenses and stocked up on some Sony, Zeiss, CV lenses and never looked back. Nikon was just too slow for my photography needs and they likely will not get me back unless they make a small, high MP body like the A7RIII and get some compact, non-bloated glass for the Z mount.
p.1 #12 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Canon has lost its momentum since years, and customers are aware of it. Used Canon L lenses of high quality can be obtained for quite cheap now - already before the new MLC mount came out. Canon lost its reputation as innovative camera company after they were unable to compete with novel sensor designs implemented in Nikon and Sony cameras. Canon still did okay with low cost DSLR models (Rebel series etc) but this price segment is diminishing due to better cell phone cameras. Canon jumped too late on the MLC bandwaggon due to fear of in-house competition with their DSLR line cameras. They seem currently years behind the current MLC leader Sony.
Nikon has one advantage that they early on realized the importance of high MP/high DR FF sensors. They formed a strategic alliance with Sony which paid off. But similar to Canon, Nikon was too late with MLC even they got decent first gen FF Z6/Z7 cameras out. But at this point it is an uphill battle to attract customers who already use Sony and Fuji MLC cameras for example.
What can we say about Sony? They were fortunate early on realize Canon's shift away from innovation with FF sensors and jump directly into this niche. Not only this, they added the first FF MLC camera system which was an absolute novelty in 2013. The success was so tremendous that they only had a hard time in the first few years of FF MLC to produce enough lenses quickly. But they made it work and continued to innovate. Clearly Canon and Nikon underestimated Sony's approach and success. Also luck (or agreement with?) that Fuji did not enter the FF MLC market. Therefore Sony became leader in the FF MLC market and will likely remain in this position for quite a number of years to come.
p.1 #13 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Yes, Japan only, but we don't have other data yet. BNC data is watched closely by the industry. We will know much more when Nikon delivers their year end and quarter results in the next two weeks.
BNC publishes a lot of data that you must pay to get. Another of the free sets on the site is the top 50 ICL cameras. Canon dominates DSLR, Sony Mirrorless, Nikon does OK with a few of it's less expensive DSL kits making a good showing, but none of it's high end DSLRs, and none of it's Mirrorless cameras make even the top 50 currently. This matches very well with Amazon data.
For whatever reasons the launch of the Z7, and Z6 did not go well. As Chambeshi has pointed out there is a lot Nikon must do to become competitive in the FF Mirrorless market.
1.) Adding a functioning Eye AF would be a great step, but that will still be a generation behind the competition. The hope he expressed for unannounced fixes in the upcoming firmware release, highlights that the market perceives deficiencies in current performance. Secret fixes has been a common theme in past firmware. Why?
2.) Pricing was likely a problem in the Z releases. But Canon's attempt at low end releases is not doing well as a strategy as BNC pointed out. Why would Nikon's attempt at this do better?
3.) FTZ adapter probably needs some changes, and needs to be free with body purchase. I think the hubris of charging $250 for it was a misguided attempt to harvest extra $ from Nikon's existing base.
4.) Nikon has published it's lens roadmap. 3 years from now it will not be up to what is available from Sony today. Never mind Sony's also aggressive planned releases, and Sony's ever growing 3rd party support. Is it a good idea for Nikon to purposely make 3rd party lens development difficult when the competition is encouraging it and licensing it's mount technology to them for free?
How long will the enthusiast and professional market wait for a body with dual card slots, an fully functioning battery grip, and other standard high end features at a competitive price? Some here will say such things don't matter, but sales numbers are saying otherwise.
This industry shift to mirrorless is creating some interesting questions. The fact that it is happening at a quicker pace than anyone predicted just a year ago is magnifying the issues.
It is a long game however so still time to address many of these issues.
p.1 #14 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1bwana1 wrote:
Neither the Z7 nor the a7RIII is ever likely to make the top 5 in sales. They are expensive, high end bodies, and few need the megapixels.
It's not the issue of need, it's just the pricing - if the price would drop significantly for the high res cameras, many more would be sold. It will happen at some point.
p.1 #15 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
I'm still encouraged by Canon's products and marketing, even though I currently use Sony bodies 90% of the time. I keep buying top quality Canon-mount lenses to use on both Sony and Canon, and from my brief experiences with the Canon R and its new lenses, I'm very excited for an upcoming higher MP release. At the least, I will probably buy a Canon R when the used market prices come down. I am confident Canon will retain its market share dominance even in the shrinking photography market.
I recently re-purchased an old Canon 20D, the APS-C 8MP camera I owned to replace my original DSLR, the Canon D60 6MP. I am reminded why I liked that camera so much, and the 5D that followed it and replaced it in my pro use. Very punchy contrast and colors, that still hold up well today with proper PP in LR. When multiple shots are combined in panos, the boosted IQ is quite remarkable and useable. As much as Canon's sensors are maligned buy those of us spoiled by the impressive Sony/Nikon sensors, the new Canon's aren't very far behind in useable professional imaging. As far as I'm concerned, its mostly a matter of getting the most out of whatever tools are chosen.
p.1 #16 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Gunzorro wrote:
I'm still encouraged by Canon's products and marketing, even though I currently use Sony bodies 90% of the time. I keep buying top quality Canon-mount lenses to use on both Sony and Canon, and from my brief experiences with the Canon R and its new lenses, I'm very excited for an upcoming higher MP release. At the least, I will probably buy a Canon R when the used market prices come down. I am confident Canon will retain its market share dominance even in the shrinking photography market.
I am sure you are not alone in this. One of the reasons I question the wisdom of Nikon's aggressive barriers to lens compatibility. Canon still has a chance to get you back. Once someone leaves Nikon, going back will be much harder.
p.1 #17 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
retrofocus wrote:
What can we say about Sony? They were fortunate early on realize Canon's shift away from innovation with FF sensors and jump directly into this niche. Not only this, they added the first FF MLC camera system which was an absolute novelty in 2013.
Well, it was also an absolute piece of crap that found zero traction among Nikon's core pro users, PJs. I think we can forgive Nikon execs who looked at the first gen Sony FFs, and decided not to besmirch their reputation by emulating Sony -- not to mention wasting scarce resources on the bleeding edge. From a PJ perspective, Sony's first iterations weren't ready for prime time. It really wasn't until the A9 that Sony produced a top tier FF mirrorless that attracted serious consideration.
p.1 #18 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
My main issue with Canon is how they purposefully hold back some of the features of their camera so they don't cannibalize their higher end product. The EOS R is the perfect example. Gimped video features and some really weird decision makes the EOS R a really tough buy. I've been shooting Canon for 15 years and I recently decided that I had enough of Canon's way.
I got the Z7 and I am not looking back. All my Canon lenses are for sales. Sony sensor are so much cleaner and easy to work with than Canon. Now that Sigma Art series offers amazing lens , I am not longer tied to Canon lens ecosystem. I know I will find an equivalent or better with Nikon.
