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 p.52 #10 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread | |
danmitchell wrote:
"The lowend is dominated by consumer sheep that think more megapixels is the end-all be-all of quality, and the higher end is dominated by advanced consumers and pros that realize a gimmick is a gimmick and there's no need to dump a 1DM2 for a 1DM2n just to get a larger LCD."
As one of those "sheep" - who happens to use a 350D to do serious photography - I wonder if you might find it within yourself to be a bit less dismissive of those who don't feel obligated to buy a particular camera body at a particular price point.
I've observed that there are, to borrow your characterization, "sheep" in all segments of the camera market, even among those "advanced comsumers" purchasing gear in the 30D, 5D, 1-series ranges.
I agree with your second point.
"The 5D is a major upgrade, but with a huge price penalty. There's nothing in the gap, which is difficult to fathom. In order to upgrade from a 20D, you have to lay out more than double the cash. I can't help but see this as a gaping hole in the lineup."
I have this idea (total speculation) that rather than upgrading a 30D, Canon could fill that "gap" with a lower cost full frame body. It would cost more than the current 30D, especially at first, but much less than the current 5D.
Some might ask how Canon could eliminate a product in the 30D range and leave only the 400D. But how many 30D buyers would be interested in getting a full frame body for a few hundred more than the cost of a crop factor body? Most, I'd wager. And how many current 20D/30D owners might upgrade to such a camera, compared to the number who might upgrade to another crop factor body at the current price point?
There would be some trickiness about this for Canon. Creating such a product by "down-featuring" a 5D would be problematic since the 5D doesn't really have features missing from the 30D with the exception of the sensor. Introducing a new full-frame 12MP model at the lower price point would destroy sales of the current 5D, unless the 5D or its replacement had more MP and/or additional features. However, that couldn't really happen until the 1-series cameras get upgraded, particularly with higher MP count and/or DR, etc.
Anyway, speculation is fun, isnt' it?
"I hate to see products coming out every 12 or 18 months with incremental upgrades. Rather I would prefer some substantial upgrade coming out every 24/36 months"
On the other hand, no one has to buy every new upgrade. One can certainly choose to wait and upgrade, say, every other cycle instead. From the manufacturer's point of view it still probably makes more sense to upgrade on the faster cycle so as not to be perceived as falling behind the competition in the marketplace, especially with products like digital camera that are so bound to rapidly improving technology.
Dan
Edited by danmitchell on Aug 29, 2006 at 08:26 AM GMT...Show more →
To your first point, I wasn't being dissmissive at all, you may want to re-read what I said without thinking I'm somehow speaking of you or any individual specifically. The low end IS dominated by a sheep/herd/lemming mentality and that's by design. I'm not referring to every individual, just the overall buying patters of this segment.
Corporations use marketing as and ACTIVE tool to influence buying behavior toward a certain end. (I know Canon does it, and so does my company) Camera manufacturers have, for years, conditioned the consumer end of the market to think more megapixels automatically means better.
This way, when a new high res product is released in the consumer space, potential buyers will exhibit a Pavlovian response to it and automatically think they "need" the new product because it must be better. This drives sales, which drives profit which drives happy shareholders. It's business, not personal, please don't mistake my meaning.
'nuff said.
The second point wasn't mine, it was from a post by thedoctah, so I won't speak to that.
I will add though that if you read Canon's FF CMOS white paper it's made very clear why FF sensors are so expensive, and since there haven't been massive leaps forward in wafer fab technology by Canon in the past year or two it's very hard to believe that there will be a FF camera slotted between the 30D and 5D, a permanent price drop of, for example, $250~$500 on the current 5D is much easier to swallow.
There are two other reasons why you won't see an FF camera in that space: profit margin, and product positioning. Why would a company introduce a camera that would clearly cannibalize sales of their own product in two other segments, particularly when the new product would have to have a much lower profit margin than the other two. This would be a money losing proposition and not very smart business.
If it replaced the 30D outright, then a new hole would materialize between the XTi and the low end FF.
Finally, Canon has commited to APS-C sensors with a line of EF-S lenses. It would also not make sense to have them compatible with only 10% of their bodies (if you include both film and digital). I think it's safe to say the APS-C will be around for quite some time on the consumer end.
I would be willing to lay money down that Canon will not introduce an under $2000 FF camera until 2008 at the earliest. Too many things need to come together to make that happen.
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