jwil
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 p.51 #17 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread | |
Canon isn't continuing the 20D lineup. There is a huge difference between continuing to promote and sell something because you have inventory in the channel and continuing to produce a two year old product after the replacement is announced.
Quite simply, the only reason the 20D is still on the site is because of old inventory. The interesting thing here is that excess inventory in this segment is often a sign of two things: poor product transition planning or a significant change in consumer buying patterns. In Canon's case, probably a bit of both.
I think what a lot of people miss is that the 30D was very likely just a stop-gap, a band-aid, a temporary patch in the product line. As I've said before the 30D was probably supposed to be a much more significant upgrade, but technical problems prevented that from happening, so Canon did what any smart company would do and released a minor update with what features were ready to go out the door so they could feed consumer need.
Perhaps it wasn't the CMOS that was the problem, but perhaps they wanted to put Digic III in the 30D as well and it wasn't ready, maybe it was a power consumption issue and new batteries weren't ready. Whatever the case, I'm guessing it's about ready now and Canon is intentionally retarding production (or maybe they've stopped production of the 30D entirely) with a replacement just on the horizon.
If this is the case Canon's marketing isn't horrible, it's absolutely brilliant! Rather than opt for a two plus year hole in their releases - in a very consumer oriented and spec sensitive segment - they sent the 30D out the door to appear as though they were releasing new products on time and to remain in the headlines knowing that new Nikon products were imminent.
If Canon does announce a new 30D replacement product they can sit back and say "We've released 3 new bodies in two years in that segment...Nikon has done what?" and all the Canon fanboys will rejoice, and agree they are brilliant. 
Go back to my 5 prediction and I'm not only expecting a 30D replacement but the 30D and 20D to drop from the product line, resulting in a line that looks like this: XTi - 40D(?) - 5D - 1DmkIIn - 1Ds, with a price drop on the 5D.
The XTi will more than compete against anything in the <$800 market and can hold it's own in some comparisons with $1k cameras like the D80. The 40D(?) would be able to trounce the Alpha and D80 spec for spec and could hold it's own against a much more expensive D200. The gap from 40D(?) to 5D wouldn't be as wide as it currently is, and there isn't a burning need to update the Marks until Canon has a spectacular update for them ready. Not to mention the only competition for the Marks are the Nikon D2Hs and D2Xs, and the Canon's can more than hold thier own with those.
That would reset the product line as a very competetive set of cameras.
One more thought, the largest limiting factors for Canon to make any of these moves is flexibility and focus. Canon has all of their eggs in their own basket, they make almost every component of their cameras, certainly the major components, so they can't just go work with another supplier if vendor A can't get Digic chips run on time. They also carry all of the R&D burden, not just on glass and bodies, but down to the component level with building their own chip fab machines. That imposes a VERY heavy burden on development.
And focus is a problem. They, like many Japanese companies, are trying to be all things to all people. Nikon has dropped most of their film line, yet Canon still has a full film line. Canon is also in printing, office products, scientific electronics, etc. A widely diverse field of markets that can cause problems. If HP turns up the heat in the printer market and they start losing profit there, then that in turn applies pressure to Canon to maximize profits in other markets (crank out more profit producing products that aren't revolutionary....) so they lack the focus that Nikon exhibits lately.
I could go on , but I think I've typed enough to get my point accross. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the show now.
Final comment, when trying to guess what a company is going to release in the future, you have have a account for multiple dimensions of influence on thier product planning and management. Product lifecycle, technical capabilities, supply chain, market conditions, competetive SWOT, new/emerging markets, profitability, etc etc etc. It's a fun little game to play though, and I love that part of my job. ;-)
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. I did read your entire post, it is just a matter of different perspective of what Canon is doing and how we are looking at it.