Yes indeed, Ron. It's dire. Goldman told their clients China - the centre of everything, pretty much - may not return to normal for six months. Trump is telling people it may peak in July/August (after claiming 'we beat it' two weeks ago). He thinks we may already be in a recession, and we almost certainly are - globally. China's data is incredibly suspect, they won't be back for several months.
It's incredibly infectious. Steve Lookner on Twitter is one of the smart guys, looking hard for news of outbreaks, which is how it gets going. An example:
'125 new cases in Malaysia in past day, 95 of which are linked to a mass religious gathering at a mosque. 338 of the 553 total cases in Malaysia are related to the religious gathering.'
Second infections are a real worry, they hit harder and the victim is weaker. Socially, this is SK now too, the odd outbreak flares up.
Not that you would know it from the beaches in Florida, or even the crowd of folks standing around Trump at pressers, let alone the cause of it all - the aviation industry and treatment of arrivals.
How about a 6-8 hour wait at O'Hare and DFW with the other thousands? Madness, they ought to have let them through, did not even test them. Unlike Italy, Russia did it right, closed the border very early. Many will follow suit, one step behind reality. Small case counts mean you can trace contacts down.
You can't imagine the markets will do at all well, even with Mnuchin grinding out mucho $$s. Nothing is doing well across all sectors. Unlike 2008, there is a real world component here, a relentless and ferocious foe. Stay safe.
PS be physically careful. The hospital system is designed for a level of need, but the Corona overwhelms it fast, meaning you won't have access for regular needs. And you don't want to be near any health facility from now on.
RoamingScott wrote:
Look, don't judge me. I went viral when I made this video on a dare years ago (so viral that it ended up on Gawker and the Tonight Show). Link to the bidet in question is in the video description. Also if it's not obvious from the vid, I can't recommend settings 4 and 5
(posting this video is ensuring we're hitting and securing that new low)
Not as bad as the brothers selling $1 hand sanitizer bottles on Amazon for up to $70 each. Canada had this too: a Vancouver couple cleaned out disinfectant wipes inventory at local Costcos, also to resell on Amazon...
Regarding the R5... Japan currently seems to have things relatively under control, compared to many other countries, so their ability to produce the camera will probably depend most on their supply chain. Maybe they should source whatever they can't find from Taiwan (Canon also has production there), since Taiwan seems to have the best control over Covid of pretty much any country (along with Hong Kong and Singapore). Another factor will be if anyone wants to buy cameras in the coming months...
So now three weeks later, it looks like day to day covid cases in Japan are starting to take off... Could it be they'll peak considerably later than most other countries, resulting in production delays out of step with much of the world?
A lot of good stuff from Canon coming our way but I can wait. Even if a 1DR was released most of the events I would cover with it are either cancelled or going to be cancelled so my GAS is subdued a little.
Also, putting out an estimated $15K+ for a migration to the RF system is not super compelling right now in these economic times.
Mostly spending time in PM and LR. I've procrastinated for a while now and there is a lot to cleanup and cull.
rscheffler wrote:
Not as bad as the brothers selling $1 hand sanitizer bottles on Amazon for up to $70 each. Canada had this too: a Vancouver couple cleaned out disinfectant wipes inventory at local Costcos, also to resell on Amazon...
Regarding the R5... Japan currently seems to have things relatively under control, compared to many other countries, so their ability to produce the camera will probably depend most on their supply chain. Maybe they should source whatever they can't find from Taiwan (Canon also has production there), since Taiwan seems to have the best control over Covid of pretty much any country (along with Hong Kong and Singapore). Another factor will be if anyone wants to buy cameras in the coming months......Show more →
I was previously waiting for a 5DSR replacement and the R5 isn't it, so I decided to go with Sony. Then this virus happened and I lost all interest. Even if I had Canon's 5DSR replacement, and the Sony, and every new lens imaginable to go with both of them, there would be little to do with it all. It's not as if I don't already have a camera system that's adequate for photographing squirrels in the back yard.
I can't imagine any travel that involves eating in restaurants, pumping gasoline, staying in a motel room, public toilets, etc., until after I'm either vaccinated or catch COVID-19 and hopefully recover, assuming that provides some immunity. With a vaccine at least 1.5 years away, and more time to get it distributed, I see my next opportunity to make good use of a new camera in late 2021 or early 2022. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.
rscheffler wrote:
They're probably holding off because like everyone else, there's so much uncertainty right now, there's no point in even guessing when something will be possible. If their suppliers aren't delivering the components they need to make cameras, they don't seem to have much choice but to delay new releases.
Why would they hold off?
IF you had a product and it was ready to go with a projected sales of 1 million units but your new market study shows only 1/2 mil will likely currently sell, would you sell the 1/2 mil or go with ZERO sales and income altogether?
Yes there are a lot of people that are living month to month with virtually no savings. Are those the demographics of the R5? Not likely.
How many 1Dxlll's were sold to people that are retired and are on a fixed income of $3000-10,000 per month and houses already paid for? LOTS! That's probably half of the high end camera market and they're not affected at all other than not being able to shoot sports or groups for extra money if they ever shoot for money at all. Just my hunch.
John
JohnSil wrote:
Why would they hold off?
IF you had a product and it was ready to go with a projected sales of 1 million units but your new market study shows only 1/2 mil will likely currently sell, would you sell the 1/2 mil or go with ZERO sales and income altogether?
Yes there are a lot of people that are living month to month with virtually no savings. Are those the demographics of the R5? Not likely.
How many 1Dxlll's were sold to people that are retired and are on a fixed income of $3000-10,000 per month and houses already paid for? LOTS! That's probably half of the high end camera market and they're not affected at all other than not being able to shoot sports or groups for extra money if they ever shoot for money at all. Just my hunch.
John...Show more →
I think you may have the demographic right but are probably overestimating the demand. Money aside, people are stuck at home so what are they going to do with a new camera once they have it? Taking test shots and photos of the cat only goes so far, and isn't worth spending a bundle on even if you have it. I can afford the camera I planned to buy next month, but there's no point in buying it, probably until late next year at the soonest. By then who knows, something newer/better/different might be available.
I think you may have the demographic right but are probably overestimating the demand. Money aside, people are stuck at home so what are they going to do with a new camera once they have it? Taking test shots and photos of the cat only goes so far, and isn't worth spending a bundle on even if you have it. I can afford the camera I planned to buy next month, but there's no point in buying it, probably until late next year at the soonest. By then who knows, something newer/better/different might be available.
Same here. I'd planned on getting one when released, though I generally prefer to wait until any bugs show up, and get corrected, rather than pay full price to be a "Beta-tester"; so now I'll likely wait until Fall, assuming it's 'out" by then.
thedutt wrote:
I think it can go viral again . Shared on FB
We were in Japan last November. Even public washrooms had bidet's. Remarkably accurate. The other day both my wife and said we miss it. It was refreshing
dmcphoto wrote:
I think you may have the demographic right but are probably overestimating the demand. Money aside, people are stuck at home so what are they going to do with a new camera once they have it? Taking test shots and photos of the cat only goes so far, and isn't worth spending a bundle on even if you have it. I can afford the camera I planned to buy next month, but there's no point in buying it, probably until late next year at the soonest. By then who knows, something newer/better/different might be available.
I agree. I think his estimated 50% reduction in demand is too extreme and will likely be much lower than that by the time the release date hits and people are getting back out there.
Not everyone is locked inside their houses mind you. I'm currently still able to get out and shoot whenever I want. Of course my shooting doesn't involve hordes of people and almost always removes me far from people. Just the way I like it.
Now event shooters such as wedding photogs, that's a different story and they will likely hold off until work picks back up this fall. But I suspect those sales wouldn't account for much more than a drop in the bucket in the overall market.
lighthound wrote:
I agree. I think his estimated 50% reduction in demand is too extreme and will likely be much lower than that by the time the release date hits and people are getting back out there.
Not everyone is locked inside their houses mind you. I'm currently still able to get out and shoot whenever I want. Of course my shooting doesn't involve hordes of people and almost always removes me far from people. Just the way I like it.
Now event shooters such as wedding photogs, that's a different story and they will likely hold off until work picks back up this fall. But I suspect those sales wouldn't account for much more than a drop in the bucket in the overall market....Show more →
My shooting doesn't involve people at all, but I wouldn't go far enough from home to need a public restroom, pump gas, have a meal, or stay at a motel, all of which increase infection risk substantially. The virus isn't going anywhere so unless you've been infected and recover, or are vaccinated, you're at risk. There's no vaccine until mid-2021 at the earliest. Until then or later "normal" won't be close to what it used to be. I won't be flying anywhere, staying in a motel, using public restrooms, eating at a restaurant, etc., or doing much shooting until I can be vaccinated, so we're talking 1.5 to 2 years.
dmcphoto wrote:
My shooting doesn't involve people at all, but I wouldn't go far enough from home to need a public restroom, pump gas, have a meal, or stay at a motel, all of which increase infection risk substantially. The virus isn't going anywhere so unless you've been infected and recover, or are vaccinated, you're at risk. There's no vaccine until mid-2021 at the earliest. Until then or later "normal" won't be close to what it used to be. I won't be flying anywhere, staying in a motel, using public restrooms, eating at a restaurant, etc., or doing much shooting until I can be vaccinated, so we're talking 1.5 to 2 years. ...Show more →
I can not imagine existing in such fear that I'd be willing to give up living itself.
There is no way in hell I would ever lock myself up in a cocoon for 1.5 - 2 years.
If I did, I'd be so bat shit crazy by the time I crawled out of my hole that I wouldn't know what a camera was, let alone the splendid R5.
Let me know if you want m to pick up some TP at the store for ya. I'll pick some up right after I stop to grab a bite to eat and fill the tank up. I'll sanitize my hands and spray it all down with Lysol before I ship it out.
Oh, and there's a good chance most of us have already been infected. This has likely been here in the states since November. I have several friends and family that had the "flu" this year before the doctors even knew to test for Covid-19. I've encouraged most of them to go donate their plasma in case they might have had it and could help others.
lighthound wrote:
I can not imagine existing in such fear that I'd be willing to give up living itself.
There is no way in hell I would ever lock myself up in a cocoon for 1.5 - 2 years.
If I did, I'd be so bat shit crazy by the time I crawled out of my hole that I wouldn't know what a camera was, let alone the splendid R5.
Let me know if you want m to pick up some TP at the store for ya. I'll pick some up right after I stop to grab a bite to eat and fill the tank up. I'll sanitize my hands and spray it all down with Lysol before I ship it out.
Oh, and there's a good chance most of us have already been infected. This has likely been here in the states since November. I have several friends and family that had the "flu" this year before the doctors even knew to test for Covid-19. I've encouraged most of them to go donate their plasma in case they might have had it and could help others....Show more →
I used to think like that when I was young and invincible. The best numbers for COVID-19 mortality say that 1.8% of COVID-19 patients within the 18-44 age group die. That rises to 3.9% for the 45-64 age group, 9.5% for those 65-74 and 16.3% for those 75 and older. A nearly 10% chance of death for a few photos seems like a very dumb choice to me, to say nothing about anyone you'd inadvertently infect along the way.
I know what sickness is. The sickest I've been was during one of several trips I spent shooting in the jungles of Malaysia and Malaysian Borneo. I came down with a high fever, chills, and strong muscle cramps that lasted hours at a time. I was bedridden for five days and recovery was slow. My weight decreased rapidly for the next three weeks even though I felt fine. A doctor here and several over there along with countless tests never figured out what it was, but I still went back. I wouldn't do that today. If I got whatever that was again I'd certainly be in a coffin.
My wife got Dengue fever there twice. The second time it was the hemorrhagic form that had her bleeding from capillaries under her skin, from her gums, eyes, and anyplace else you can imagine. She needed a lot of blood but recovered fully, and went back with me several times. She'd never survive a third bout of that, even if she was still young.
But back to COVID-19. No one is locking themselves up in a cocoon, but life isn't going to be like it was a month ago for a long time. If it is we will all be right back where we are now, with lock-downs, business closures, unemployment, and thousands more dead people. Is a little cabin fever worse than that?
There's a big difference between getting back to work and school in a modified way that minimizes risk and acting like nothing ever happened. Things like traveling from place to place taking pictures, eating in restaurants, and nuzzling your face into a motel pillow that's been coughed and slobbered on might not be a great idea for a while. Likewise being on a plane with a few hundred of your closest friends.
I have a good friend who's a physician and professor at a medical school. His blunt advice to me was "Don't be stupid about this". He might know what he's talking about.
Sorry, your numbers are wrong. Every day, the data is showing that while serious, the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China is not as world-ending as once thought. You need to relax. The restrictions will be slowly lifted over the next few months (not years) in various areas as the pandemic subsides.
In the meantime, keep washing your hands, practice social distancing, etc.
It never would have never been world ending and it looks better because the world has shut down. Imagine if the decision was made to let it run its course. Things are looking not that bad in our province but we are mid Canada and not an airline hub. You can get a province, state plus other countries regions under control. The main problem is travel and making sure people who follow the rules. It only takes 1 person to start it all again.
I wrote this email to a few friends the other day.
Anyone wanna place bets on how this will play out? I was thinking about this last night and I bet the governments are discussing these worst case scenarios but don’t want to say anything yet. I didn’t read this anywhere and of course just pure speculation on my part so there is no accuracy to this. Just my prediction.
I figure that there has to be a two weeks with no new case then a buffer period to be sure for a province to start opening up. I’m thinking non essential businesses and workplaces will start to open in mid May. Restaurants two weeks later.
I expect to see international travel mandatory 2 week immediate self isolation in the city you land in for at least another 6 months or up to a year. Same for interprovincial provincial travel - 3 to 6 months. Border crossing between us and the USA 6 months to a year for non essential travel as well. Of course this could change if they administer that 15 minute quick check as soon as you get off a plane or enter a province when driving. If was was running the show that is what I’d do.
I think the 2 meter rule will still apply loosely for a few months after things start to open up. You have to get manufacturing and restaurants (with a restricted capacity) opened up. We will see employees sanitizing stuff for a long time. We were in Hong Kong a year after SARS and they were still cleaning escalator handrails, door handles, etc.
Probably the only 10 or less people gathering rule will apply well for a few months. All concerts and major events cancelled until at least until very late fall.
Again this could change if that 15 minute quick check works, if there are lots of tests are available and are being done properly. A Canadian made one hr test was approved the other day.
Zenon Char wrote:
It never would have never been world ending and it looks better because the world has shut down. Imagine if the decision was made to let it run its course. Things are looking not that bad in our province but we are mid Canada and not an airline hub. You can get a province, state plus other countries regions under control. The main problem is travel and making sure people who follow the rules. It only takes 1 person to start it all again.
I wrote this email to a few friends the other day.
Anyone wanna place bets on how this will play out? I was thinking about this last night and I bet the governments are discussing these worst case scenarios but don’t want to say anything yet. I didn’t read this anywhere and of course just pure speculation on my part so there is no accuracy to this. Just my prediction.
I figure that there has to be a two weeks with no new case then a buffer period to be sure for a province to start opening up. I’m thinking non essential businesses and workplaces will start to open in mid May. Restaurants two weeks later.
I expect to see international travel mandatory 2 week immediate self isolation in the city you land in for at least another 6 months or up to a year. Same for interprovincial provincial travel - 3 to 6 months. Border crossing between us and the USA 6 months to a year for non essential travel as well. Of course this could change if they administer that 15 minute quick check as soon as you get off a plane or enter a province when driving. If was was running the show that is what I’d do.
I think the 2 meter rule will still apply loosely for a few months after things start to open up. You have to get manufacturing and restaurants (with a restricted capacity) opened up. We will see employees sanitizing stuff for a long time. We were in Hong Kong a year after SARS and they were still cleaning escalator handrails, door handles, etc.
Probably the only 10 or less people gathering rule will apply well for a few months. All concerts and major events cancelled until at least until very late fall.
Again this could change if that 15 minute quick check works, if there are lots of tests are available and are being done properly. A Canadian made one hr test was approved the other day. ...Show more →
I agree with most if not all of your thoughts.
I think we have all started to realize and been told that complete normalcy will not come back until there is a vaccine or herd immunity through people having recovered.
Well I can't see any scenario where a natural herd immunity will occur other than in very isolated pockets like maybe New York City or N. Italy etc. There is no way in Canada we will have a natural herd immunity happen with the amount of containment we have achieved.
Even if the actual number of infections is 100 or 1000 times the number of tested positive cases due to untested cases, that doesn't even come close to producing a natural herd immunity.
So basically a vaccine is needed and as we keep hearing that is 12-18 months out at best if even possible.
Of course the other alternative is to actually let the virus go rampant everywhere (which would be devastating and totally overwhelm healthcare no matter how good the system is). But even then they still haven't determined if recovered people have antibodies that are sufficient to protect them and if they are sufficient how long they last.
It will be interesting to see which countries seriously screw up their lifting of restrictions and cause a 2nd wave even worse than the 1st. I'm pretty sure where my bets lie on that one.
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