In all seriousness, this virus has the possibility of affecting production of many life depending things...much more critical than a camera. My wife has Parkinson's and relies on drugs made in India with components from China. There already has been discussions about possible shortages on these drugs. She cannot function with these daily drugs.
Stats so far show that seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% while COVID-19 has a mortality rate of about 3.4%, meaning it's 34 times as lethal. The reason seasonal flu is killing more people is because right now more people have it. If COVID-19 was as wide spread the healthcare system couldn't keep up.
Lan11 wrote:
So far the stats show a seasonal flu to be more deadly. However sales of masks, disinfectants and other products are booming.
Actually the stats are bit more alarming so far.
The seasonal flu mortality rate is about 0.1% where as the Corona virus is slightly more than 3.5% so far.
0.1% vs 3.5% is not something to take lightly.
With that said however, I do agree that people are freaking out too much and over reacting. Common sense and extra sanitary precautions are certainly needed right now by everyone but people shouldn't be going off the deep end over this.
Wash your hands thoroughly and use hand sanitizer after touching public items such as gas pumps, shopping carts, door handles ect. and go on with your lives as normal. Taking extra precautions isn't that big of a deal and takes little effort. And who knows, it just might save a loved ones life.
That 3.4 % mortality rate seems like it could be overblown. Interesting article.
“Countries that test more for COVID-19 tend to have lower mortality rates for the illness. “ Look at this chart and key ..... “people with milder versions of the illness are underrepresented in official case counts.”
Don
Littlefield wrote:
That 3.4 % mortality rate seems like it could be overblown. Interesting article.
“Countries that test more for COVID-19 tend to have lower mortality rates for the illness. “ Look at this chart and key ..... “people with milder versions of the illness are underrepresented in official case counts.”
Don
Sure. In order to find the real mortality rate it's necessary to follow a large group of people from the time they are infected until the final outcome (recovery or death). You can't just take a snapshot of known cases versus deaths. There are all sorts of mathematical models that try to derive the right numbers from the known facts, but it's all still a bit vague and there's some guesstimating involved. It's also true that similar illnesses initially had a much higher mortality rate that decreased as time passed and they became common. Some of that is the inaccuracy of the initial numbers as above, and some of it could be the nature of the disease and human immune systems.
"The third uncertainty is whether there are a large number of asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. Estimates suggest that about 80% of people with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic disease, 14% have severe disease, and 6% are critically ill, implying that symptom-based control is unlikely to be sufficient unless these cases are only lightly infectious."
It's also true that overall, about 14 percent of people with influenza (common flu) have no symptoms.
Edit: Whatever the overall mortality rate number turns out to be, it's important to remember that it's an average. The actual rate will be lower for younger and healthier people and higher for older and less healthy people, especially those with respiratory problems. Per the surgeon general, the average age of death for people from coronavirus is 80. Average age of people who need medical attention is age 60.
The WHO isn’t stupid. They aren’t just dividing known deaths by known cases otherwise the number would be much higher.
The closed case mortality rate in China is 5.2%, and at the time the WHO announced a 3.4% rate the actual death rate for closed cases in China was near 7%.
In Italy the death rate for known cases is 5.04%.
Edit to add: The death rate of seasonal flu is 0.01% averaged across all ages. Virtually 0 people between ages 10-49 die from seasonal flu.
The death rate in China for people ages 10-19, 20-29, and 30-39 is 0.2%. The death rate for ages 40-49 is 0.4%.
So, before you go around trying to convince people it’s not a big deal (potentially encouraging spread), instead it would be a good idea to encourage people to take caution, be rational, don’t hoard, work together, and we will all get through this.
gdanmitchell wrote:
^^^
No one says it will "kill everyone."
The "stats" do not show a typical "seasonal flu to be more deadly."
What experts say is that it is a serious matter deserving a serious response.
While panic doesn't help, neither does hiding your head in the sand.
What I find funny about everyone saying "just the flu" is that the emergence of a new influenza strain is basically the gold standard for dangerous pandemic. "Just the flu" is literally what they're most worried about, because the flu is dangerous and kills a lot of people and makes a lot of other people very sick.
Yes, don't panic. No, it's a serious thing and demands a serious response.
amacal1 wrote:
"Just the flu" is literally what they're most worried about, because the flu is dangerous and kills a lot of people and makes a lot of other people very sick.
...but it doesn't shut down travel and economy as we know it. Even H1N1 didn't (and my whole family had it, so I understand the suffering it brought).
Before we go TOO deeply into the arcane issues of epidemiology here, a few thoughts...
1. Some reference to this issue in a photography forum is natural, but...
2. ... deep discussions are probably better held in other places focusing on the issue, including some where infectious disease experts and similar are sharing important information and perspectives.
3. I'm reminded of a joke circulating on social media right now. It is essentially, "I'm shocked by how many people who were experts on [photography] last month have turned out to be infectious disease and pandemic authorities!"
;-)
Dan
(As I indicated earlier, I regard this as a serious situation that requires a concerted and serous response.)
Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said.
At a 40% infection rate we get 3.08 billion infections. If 80% of those infected have mild illness or are asymptomatic we have 616 million physically ill people. If the mortality rate is 3.4% we have 105 million deaths. At a 70% infection rate that becomes 1.08 billion physically ill people and 183 million deaths. So yea, it's serious.
Bringing this back to photography, my son’s state hockey playoffs got cancelled after the first round, so our season is done (and no more hockey photography for a while)...
