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Archive 2020 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

  
 
chez
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p.7 #1 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


rattymouse wrote:
Step outside your bubble and you will see free and clear exactly why the traditional camera industry has collapsed.

Only the fact that all these companies are Japanese do half of them still even make cameras. Were they American, the bean counters long ago would have shut them down. It's only a matter of time until economics forces the Japanese to finally see reality. You can't lose double digit amounts of revenue in perpetuity without consequences.



Of course prior to these double digit declines, we've see at least those numbers year over year in growth. Things are bubbling down to the norm we were at before the unprecedented growth phase.



Jan 12, 2020 at 04:46 PM
chez
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p.7 #2 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


CIPA has figures for the Japanese market that shows the percentage of people under 29 buying ILC in 2018 has doubled in the last 10'years. It also shows the percentage of woman buying ILC has tripled in the last 10 years.


Jan 12, 2020 at 04:55 PM
1bwana1
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p.7 #3 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Living in San Diego where we have a large tourist industry, I see tourists every day. These tourists come from all over the World. There is still a sizable number of them that are using dedicated cameras of one sort or another. I see less and less of huge DSLR cameras, a growing number of mirrorless ICL cameras, and a surprisingly decent amount of point and shoots. This includes the younger people, especially among the Asian tourists.

Yes, smartphones outnumber all of the above. But dedicated cameras are still a living business.



Jan 12, 2020 at 05:27 PM
Jorgen Udvang
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p.7 #4 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Sauseschritt wrote:
Ah the good old mirrorless vs SLR debate. I think I'm doing these since at least eight years by now ?

Well theres two actual advantages of mirrorless that, to me, are actually there, and are actually substantial enough to matter, and those are:

- Assuming the manufacturer manages to actually implement that, they can have autofocus that needs no calibration.

- Assuming the manufacturer manages to actually implement that, they can have excellent support for manual focus, with technologies such as magnification, focus peaking, digital split image, and digital micro prism (the later two are only available on Fujifilm).

Then you have the
...Show more

As a mirrorless user for 10 years, there's one factor that makes me want to go back to DSLR as much as possible: with an EVF, there's a constant, high frequency flicker, and it makes my eye "tired". It's similar to when I spend too much time watching a computer screen. It's not visible to me as such, but I'm sure my eye and my brain sense it.

Then there's the subjective, more "natural" feeling to the OVF. It's sometimes convenient that everything is bright and shiny in the EVF, but the image that I'm trying to convey isn't always bright and shiny. I'm quite sure that the visual magnification of colours and luminance influences how I see and compose my images.

DSLR cameras are not perfect, but they give me a more natural experience and they consume much less energy. As for the flicker of the mirror going up and down, it has never bothered me, and since it's something that I can see and relate to, I'm sure it's less problematic than the much faster flicker of the viewfinder LCD.

This will of course not change the development in the market. Mirrorless is new, and heavily marketed. Notice the very low-key promotion at the launch of the D780. No famous phototgraphers telling us about their wonderful experiences at exotic locations with this camera, no stories about how changing to the D780 will make the world a better place, unlike with recent mirrorless launches.

There is a size difference between mirrorless and DSLR, but it's not anywhere as big as we are sometimes lead to believe. When you add all the batteries needed for the mirrorless camera, there's little advantage from a size/weight point of view. A Z6 needs 6 batteries for the same number of exposures as the D780 can do with one. That's around half a kilo or one pound, not to speak about the cost and the time it takes to charge them.



Jan 12, 2020 at 05:30 PM
JadedWriter
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p.7 #5 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Mirrorless is so small...until you pop on a flash, 2.8 lens and a vertical grip, then it's just slightly skinnier than a DSLR. At some point I'm going to pick up my Nikon's again for some relaxed shooting, just need to find the time...and get some sort of 100-400 for them because I'm starting to realize how much I like shooting nature type stuff.
Jorgen Udvang wrote:
As a mirrorless user for 10 years, there's one factor that makes me want to go back to DSLR as much as possible: with an EVF, there's a constant, high frequency flicker, and it makes my eye "tired". It's similar to when I spend too much time watching a computer screen. It's not visible to me as such, but I'm sure my eye and my brain sense it.

Then there's the subjective, more "natural" feeling to the OVF. It's sometimes convenient that everything is bright and shiny in the EVF, but the image that I'm trying to convey isn't always
...Show more




Jan 12, 2020 at 06:50 PM
David Baldwin
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p.7 #6 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Seems to me that mirrorless is a solution in search of a problem.

I have no interest in an electronic viewfinder, and don 't feel the need to shell out for one, particularly if I need to buy a new set of lenses.

Presumably I am missing something here?



Jan 12, 2020 at 07:08 PM
chez
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p.7 #7 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


JadedWriter wrote:
Mirrorless is so small...until you pop on a flash, 2.8 lens and a vertical grip, then it's just slightly skinnier than a DSLR. At some point I'm going to pick up my Nikon's again for some relaxed shooting, just need to find the time...and get some sort of 100-400 for them because I'm starting to realize how much I like shooting nature type stuff.



Yeh...you can make mirrorless big by putting big lenses and flash onto it...but the beauty of mirrorless is that you CAN keep it small by using small compact lenses...unlike if you start with a big heavy DSLR...no way of making it small.

I use an A7R with the Sony 35 2.8 lens which combined weigh in at 585gm...much less than most DSLR's weigh by themselves.



Jan 12, 2020 at 07:24 PM
JadedWriter
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p.7 #8 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Mirrorless is at it's best when you can use it for fun and just strap on one prime of your choice on it. The A7RIII with a PD Slide and something like the Sigma 35 1.4 I have or the 24-70GM and 135GM isn't too bad either. Main thing is just weight distribution, as long as you have a comfortable strap and don't wear it around your neck it's fine. Using the stuff for work, yeah it's not going to be small since I'm usually wearing two cameras.
chez wrote:
Yeh...you can make mirrorless big by putting big lenses and flash onto it...but the beauty of mirrorless is that you CAN keep it small by using small compact lenses...unlike if you start with a big heavy DSLR...no way of making it small.

I use an A7R with the Sony 35 2.8 lens which combined weigh in at 585gm...much less than most DSLR's weigh by themselves.





Jan 12, 2020 at 07:34 PM
rattymouse
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p.7 #9 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


chez wrote:
Of course prior to these double digit declines, we've see at least those numbers year over year in growth. Things are bubbling down to the norm we were at before the unprecedented growth phase.


Wrong. Percent declines have vastly more power than the increases. Anyone who trades stocks daily recognizes the power of declines have over that of any increase.

And it is a fallacy to think we are going back to the norm. We are plunging well below the norm. It's not even close. Everyone talks about the norm being the pre digital era. That's ridiculous. Today there are *billions* more people on the planet who can afford to buy cameras. BILLIONS. China alone has added over 200 million people to the middle class. People who own cars, houses, etc. India is right behind with even more people joining the middle class. The traditional camera industry, if t were truly something to be desired by the average person, should have NO problem increasing sales (can't 1 million more people out of those billions buy cameras?). The reality is that it is being wiped out by the smart phone. Even with hundreds of millions of new people, i.e., customers, sales tank.

What people should analyze is the percent of the population buying cameras, not the raw numbers. Should someone crunch those numbers, the situation for the traditional camera makers would like far more dire than it does now.





Jan 12, 2020 at 08:43 PM
rattymouse
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p.7 #10 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


chez wrote:
Yeh...you can make mirrorless big by putting big lenses and flash onto it...but the beauty of mirrorless is that you CAN keep it small by using small compact lenses...unlike if you start with a big heavy DSLR...no way of making it small.

I use an A7R with the Sony 35 2.8 lens which combined weigh in at 585gm...much less than most DSLR's weigh by themselves.


I pulled out my ancient SLR today, cleaning up my closet. I had my Nikon 24mm f/1.4 lens on it. I dont know what it weighed but i'm sure it was more than 500 grams. Probably a lot more. It still seems like a trivial amount of weight.

I dont get this whining about weight. I routinely carried an SLR and 4-5 lenses in my backpack while out hiking Asia, usually in 100 F heat. I never thought much about it. I guess if one is weak and unable to carry that weight. It sure seems that is common, or there are just a lot of whiners.



Jan 12, 2020 at 08:46 PM
rattymouse
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p.7 #11 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


David Baldwin wrote:
Seems to me that mirrorless is a solution in search of a problem.

I have no interest in an electronic viewfinder, and don 't feel the need to shell out for one, particularly if I need to buy a new set of lenses.

Presumably I am missing something here?


You just need to amp up your whining gene. Then you'll fit right in.



Jan 12, 2020 at 08:47 PM
Jorgen Udvang
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p.7 #12 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


chez wrote:
Yeh...you can make mirrorless big by putting big lenses and flash onto it...but the beauty of mirrorless is that you CAN keep it small by using small compact lenses...unlike if you start with a big heavy DSLR...no way of making it small.

I use an A7R with the Sony 35 2.8 lens which combined weigh in at 585gm...much less than most DSLR's weigh by themselves.


That's indeed one of the strong sides of mirrorless, particularly the early A7 models, but only if you can live with one battery and a slowish lens. I do this all the time with my m43 cameras and their fantastic primes. However, if I'm travelling or if I'm doing a commercial shoot, there's no way I will survive with one lens and one battery.

And of course nowadays, the current A7R IV is approaching 700g even without a lens. Its ergonomics have improved, as has the battery life. Still, I would be more than happy to carry the extra 200g of the D780 for the even better ergonomics, much better battery life and the optical viewfinder.

It's all a question of what compromise is easiest to live with for each individual.



Jan 12, 2020 at 09:11 PM
chez
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p.7 #13 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Jorgen Udvang wrote:
That's indeed one of the strong sides of mirrorless, particularly the early A7 models, but only if you can live with one battery and a slowish lens. I do this all the time with my m43 cameras and their fantastic primes. However, if I'm travelling or if I'm doing a commercial shoot, there's no way I will survive with one lens and one battery.

And of course nowadays, the current A7R IV is approaching 700g even without a lens. Its ergonomics have improved, as has the battery life. Still, I would be more than happy to carry the extra 200g
...Show more

I travel with an assortment of lenses all made for the mirrorless mount and lighter than the DSLR counterparts. I also carry 2 spare batteries...but I did that with mirrorless.

To me the weight that really counts is the one I carry in my hands...camera and lens. I can carry much more weight on my back...but my overall kit has gone down in weight by at least 60% compared to my DSLR outfit...and I believe the image quality has gone up at the same time.

I also have a very nice A6000 as a backup which weighs nothing, takes the same batteries and lenses as the A7R and takes up no room in my pack. I traveled enough with a DSLR based system to know how much lighter and smaller a mirrorless system can be. Weight is really key as many foreign airlines are now starting to enforce their 7kg carry on limits. I've been checked in India and Vietnam...was just under both times.



Jan 12, 2020 at 09:32 PM
chez
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p.7 #14 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


rattymouse wrote:
I pulled out my ancient SLR today, cleaning up my closet. I had my Nikon 24mm f/1.4 lens on it. I dont know what it weighed but i'm sure it was more than 500 grams. Probably a lot more. It still seems like a trivial amount of weight.

I dont get this whining about weight. I routinely carried an SLR and 4-5 lenses in my backpack while out hiking Asia, usually in 100 F heat. I never thought much about it. I guess if one is weak and unable to carry that weight. It sure seems that is common, or there
...Show more

Easy to carry that weight on your back...but hanging a camera off you wrist, neck or shoulder for days on end quickly becomes tedious. I've covered events that lasted many days carrying my camera for at least 12 hours on my wrist taking photos. Every gram saved makes a huge difference at the end of the day. Carrying my other gear in my backpack was easy...it's what's hanging off your wrist that counts.



Jan 12, 2020 at 09:35 PM
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p.7 #15 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


David Baldwin wrote:
Seems to me that mirrorless is a solution in search of a problem.

I have no interest in an electronic viewfinder, and don 't feel the need to shell out for one, particularly if I need to buy a new set of lenses.

Presumably I am missing something here?



I see two advantages. First is the new much wider mounts are allowing Nikon to create some stellar lenses. For me that's the number one thing. Second is the camera is much smaller and combined with the f1.8S lenses are great for travel and hiking. I'm still hanging on to my do-all D850 for now and probably another year or two though. Meanwhile I've purchased a nice Kodak 2D 8x10 view camera and have dived into shooting wet plate collodion and tin type, as well as 8x10 film. That should keep me plenty busy for the next couple of years.


Kent in SD




Jan 12, 2020 at 10:06 PM
1bwana1
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p.7 #16 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


My mirrorless kit weighs about 1/2 of the DSLR kit it replaced... I don't feel like I have given up any capability. In fact, quite the opposite. Partly it is the result of the lower body weight. Also, I pick my lenses with weight savings as a part of the criteria.

My "Holy Trinity" set of zooms plus body on my Nikon DSLR lit weighed in at 145.06 oz (9.1 lbs). That includes an f/4 16-35.

My mirrorless kit with the same FL capabilities except all f2.8 lenses weighs only 86.2 oz (5.3 lbs)

The mirrorless kit is 40% lighter an almost 4 lbs savings. That makes a huge difference to me when traveling.

Manufactures are paying attention to the great number of people who are moving to mirrorless with weight savings being part of the criteria, and are making excellent performing, light lenses.



Jan 12, 2020 at 10:23 PM
ShootPDX
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p.7 #17 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Rattymouse, why do you care about another person’s preference? Talk about whining. Sheesh.

You do you.

rattymouse wrote:
I pulled out my ancient SLR today, cleaning up my closet. I had my Nikon 24mm f/1.4 lens on it. I dont know what it weighed but i'm sure it was more than 500 grams. Probably a lot more. It still seems like a trivial amount of weight.

I dont get this whining about weight. I routinely carried an SLR and 4-5 lenses in my backpack while out hiking Asia, usually in 100 F heat. I never thought much about it. I guess if one is weak and unable to carry that weight. It sure seems that is common, or there
...Show more



Jan 12, 2020 at 10:35 PM
Jorgen Udvang
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p.7 #18 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


chez wrote:
I travel with an assortment of lenses all made for the mirrorless mount and lighter than the DSLR counterparts. I also carry 2 spare batteries...but I did that with mirrorless.

To me the weight that really counts is the one I carry in my hands...camera and lens. I can carry much more weight on my back...but my overall kit has gone down in weight by at least 60% compared to my DSLR outfit...and I believe the image quality has gone up at the same time.

I also have a very nice A6000 as a backup which weighs nothing, takes the same batteries
...Show more

I don't understand what your point is. You are comparing a 7 year old Sony model with all its known limitations with the latest Nikon models. I wouldn't even dream of buying the original A7R.

The Nikon Z6 with one battery and the 85mm f/1.8 S is 1,145 grams
The Nikon D780 with one battery and the 85mm f/1.8 AF-S is 1,190 grams

For Sony fanboiz:
The Sony A7 III with one battery and the FE 85mm f/1.8 is 1,021 grams

The D780 is rated for 2,260 shots per charge, the Z6 is rated for 310 shots. (The Sony is rated for 710 shots). The Z6 is a fine camera, and I'm sure that the new lens is even better than the AF-S lens. But the older lens is very good, and few if any non-photographers will see the difference between images taken with the two.

As for airline limitations, I travel internationaly twice per month on average, mostly in Asia. So far, I have never had problems bringing my camera gear as hand-carry. If they check the weight and I'm over (I mostly am), I show them the content of the bag (which mostly is well within size limits), and they always say "please, go ahead". Few if any airlines in this part of the world want valuable camera gear with the checked in luggage. The risks are high, and they don't want to deal with possible claims. Some airlines in Southeast Asia have even raised their weight limits lately, Vietnam Airlines to as much as 12 kg if I remember correctly.

I would consider a mirrorless backup for a D780 though, like the Z6 or even the tiny Z50, since the lenses from the DSLR work fine, and the Z6 uses the same battery. The EVF of those camera are also great for video.



Jan 12, 2020 at 11:07 PM
Steve Spencer
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p.7 #19 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Jorgen Udvang wrote:
I don't understand what your point is. You are comparing a 7 year old Sony model with all its known limitations with the latest Nikon models. I wouldn't even dream of buying the original A7R.

The Nikon Z6 with one battery and the 85mm f/1.8 S is 1,145 grams
The Nikon D780 with one battery and the 85mm f/1.8 AF-S is 1,190 grams

For Sony fanboiz:
The Sony A7 III with one battery and the FE 85mm f/1.8 is 1,021 grams

The D780 is rated for 2,260 shots per charge, the Z6 is rated for 310 shots. (The Sony is rated for 710
...Show more

To add to this post if we compare the D780 to Z6 the D780 weighs 165g more, but all the f/1.8S lens are heavier than their f/1.8G counterparts. At 24mm it is 450g vs. 355g; at 35mm it is 370g vs. 200g; at 50mm it is 415g vs. 185g; and at 85mm it is 470g vs. 350g. This means that even with one lens the weight difference is minimal and goes back and forth. With 24mm and 85mm the Z6 with a lens is slightly lighter and at 35mm and 50mm the D780 with one lens is slightly lighter. If you put together any kit with even two lenses the D780 kit will be lighter (and I don't think this will change with the 20mm as the f/1.8G lens is at 355g is almost certainly going to be lighter than the f/1.8S lens).

So getting a Z6 kit to save weight (or even size) for travel doesn't really make much sense. Now, personally I use a Z7 kit for travel, so I am not saying there aren't other reasons to get a Z kit for travel but weight and size really aren't sensible reasons over the D780 and the small f/1.8G lenses. For me I can have a better set of lenses with my Z kit and I can have a high resolution camera and those things matter to me (I also really like IBIS for travel), but if one is happy with the f/1.8G lenses and 24 MP the D780 kit could be pretty compelling.



Jan 13, 2020 at 08:47 AM
technic
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p.7 #20 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Steve Spencer wrote:
To add to this post if we compare the D780 to Z6 the D780 weighs 165g more, but all the f/1.8S lens are heavier than their f/1.8G counterparts. At 24mm it is 450g vs. 355g; at 35mm it is 370g vs. 200g; at 50mm it is 415g vs. 185g; and at 85mm it is 470g vs. 350g. This means that even with one lens the weight difference is minimal and goes back and forth. With 24mm and 85mm the Z6 with a lens is slightly lighter and at 35mm and 50mm the D780 with one lens is slightly lighter.
...Show more

Interesting example, especially if you add some extra batteries for Z6 the weight (and probably size) argument indeed doesn't look convincing. On the other side, the Z50 with its 16-50 kit zoom looks like a more convincing example of similar performance to an APS-C DSLR kit at smaller size and less weight. Will be interesting to see what Nikon can do with a ML version of the 2.8-4/16-80 VR lens, and if lighter, more compact FF Z primes are coming that are more convincing regarding size/weight (with probably smaller aperture as the compromise).



Jan 13, 2020 at 10:25 AM
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