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Archive 2020 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

  
 
T-O Shooter
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p.1 #1 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Could have been subtitled - The D780 is not built the way I'd want it.

http://dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-2020-news/january-2019-nikon-canon/the-dslr-cash-cow-is-alive.html



Jan 08, 2020 at 08:37 AM
Jorgen Udvang
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p.1 #2 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Oh spare me. Mr. Sour Grapes Hogan. Many photographers, myself included, still like to use DSLR cameras. We like optical viewfinders. We like being able to take thousands of photos without having to carry a bag of batteries. Now, Nikon has launched one that offers most of the video advantages of a mirrorless body except the EVF. I couldn't be happier. Once I have the necessary monies, I'll buy it without trying. That the D750 is x dollars cheaper is not interesting. the D750 cannot do what the D780 can. It's a simple as that. If you want or need a pickup truck, you don't buy a Prius even if it's cheaper.


Jan 08, 2020 at 09:21 AM
this is me
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p.1 #3 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


He should just rewrite the article as "DSLR and F mount are dead".


Jan 08, 2020 at 09:32 AM
1bwana1
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p.1 #4 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Well, Canon has now said that at least for the foreseeable future they are no longer investing in the EF DSLR Mount lenses. Nikon will not be far behind in this decision.

Whatever DSL bodies being offered going forward will just be money harvesting from those who don't see the future.

https://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/well-that-was-damn-fast-transition-canon-says-focus-now-is-on-rf-lenses-and-there-will-be-no-new-ef-lenses-unless-market-demands-it/



Jan 08, 2020 at 09:37 AM
snapsy
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p.1 #5 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Google says "cash cow" is defined as a business, investment, or product that provides a steady income or profit.

Hmm...



Jan 08, 2020 at 09:44 AM
T-O Shooter
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p.1 #6 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


1bwana1 wrote:
Well, Canon has now said that at least for the foreseeable future they are no longer investing in the EF DSLR Mount lenses. Nikon will not be far behind in this decision.

Whatever DSL bodies being offered going forward will just be money harvesting from those who don't see the future.

https://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/well-that-was-damn-fast-transition-canon-says-focus-now-is-on-rf-lenses-and-there-will-be-no-new-ef-lenses-unless-market-demands-it/


None of us can see the future.



Jan 08, 2020 at 09:50 AM
1bwana1
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p.1 #7 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


T-O Shooter wrote:
None of us can see the future.


But it is correctly envisioning the future that is at the essence of success. When you buy or sell a stock, a house, a commercial property. When you invest in the development of product, or a marketing plan. When you hire or fire someone. All these things you are doing with an eye to the future. So, if you are not trying to see the future, you are likely in a lower end job, are not part of leadership, and not self determinant.




Jan 08, 2020 at 10:04 AM
chez
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p.1 #8 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Jorgen Udvang wrote:
Oh spare me. Mr. Sour Grapes Hogan. Many photographers, myself included, still like to use DSLR cameras. We like optical viewfinders. We like being able to take thousands of photos without having to carry a bag of batteries. Now, Nikon has launched one that offers most of the video advantages of a mirrorless body except the EVF. I couldn't be happier. Once I have the necessary monies, I'll buy it without trying. That the D750 is x dollars cheaper is not interesting. the D750 cannot do what the D780 can. It's a simple as that. If you want or
...Show more

Question is how many new photographers prefer a DSLR over a mirrorless?



Jan 08, 2020 at 10:15 AM
Bernie
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p.1 #9 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


I won't be upgrading my D750 to the D780. When you're selling to the more demanding photographers who are willing to put money on the table, you don't take features away.

If I need the higher ISO (the only selling point I see) on trips, I'll probably rent it.



Jan 08, 2020 at 10:19 AM
sum1sgrampa
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p.1 #10 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


1bwana1 wrote:
Well, Canon has now said that at least for the foreseeable future they are no longer investing in the EF DSLR Mount lenses. Nikon will not be far behind in this decision.

Whatever DSL bodies being offered going forward will just be money harvesting from those who don't see the future.

https://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/well-that-was-damn-fast-transition-canon-says-focus-now-is-on-rf-lenses-and-there-will-be-no-new-ef-lenses-unless-market-demands-it/


I can see the future for me. And I'm salivating watching the prices on Nikon's exotic F mount teles getting lower and lower and closer to my price range. And pretty soon all those gear chasers who purchased Z7's and whatnot to replace their D850's they obviously didn't need in the first place will be offering those up for bargain prices too. It always kills me when I read " since I got my Z7 I haven't picked up my D850."
Well maybe you didn't need a camera with all the D850 capabilities to begin with. So I'll continue to shoot crappy photos with my ancient, outdated, inferior equipment until something better falls in my lap. Or maybe not




500 f4 AF-I




Jan 08, 2020 at 10:20 AM
Gary Irwin
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p.1 #11 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


T-O Shooter wrote:
Could have been subtitled - The D780 is not built the way I'd want it.

http://dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-2020-news/january-2019-nikon-canon/the-dslr-cash-cow-is-alive.html


Though I tend to agree with Thom on this, I think that's an accurate statement. Nikon is having to take a treacherous path trying not to alienate their legions of DSLR fans like you, and also satisfy Z fans like me. Although I think Nikon will be fine in the longer term, their transition to mirrorless (which is the future IMO) isn't going to be accomplished without mistakes being made.

I will add that not only am I not interested in the D780, but I won't be interested in a D880 if it comes with similar tech w/61MP sensor -- my D850 will most likely be the last DSLR I will ever own.



Jan 08, 2020 at 10:20 AM
ilkka_nissila
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p.1 #12 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?



They don't say that. Canon say that they focus on mirrorless lenses (expected since it's a new system) and fully support the EF mount. If the market demands, they will make new EF lenses.

A site called "mirrorlessrumors" obviously puts its own spin on everything, interpreting it in a way that whatever is being quoted, they can say "mirrorless rules!!!"

It doesn't take even elementary reading comprehension skills to see that this is that site's spin, and they would have put it on anything Canon says.

1bwana1 wrote:
Well, Canon has now said that at least for the foreseeable future they are no longer investing in the EF DSLR Mount lenses. Nikon will not be far behind in this decision.

Whatever DSL bodies being offered going forward will just be money harvesting from those who don't see the future.

https://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/well-that-was-damn-fast-transition-canon-says-focus-now-is-on-rf-lenses-and-there-will-be-no-new-ef-lenses-unless-market-demands-it/




Jan 08, 2020 at 10:26 AM
1bwana1
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p.1 #13 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Gary Irwin wrote:
I will add that not only am I not interested in the D780, but I won't be interested in a D880 if it comes with similar tech w/61MP sensor -- my D850 will most likely be the last DSLR I will ever own.


Don't lose sum1sgrampa's contact information. Sounds like he is a buyer for your old equipment when you move on.



Jan 08, 2020 at 10:29 AM
sum1sgrampa
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p.1 #14 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


1bwana1 wrote:
Don't lose sum1sgrampa's contact information. Sounds like he is a buyer for your old equipment when you move on.


Got that right. Even us poor guys have to have some fun

And just to be clear, in no way,shape,or form am I suggesting that Z7 or D850 owners are all "gear chasers". You all know who you are

Edited on Jan 08, 2020 at 10:36 AM · View previous versions



Jan 08, 2020 at 10:31 AM
1bwana1
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p.1 #15 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


ilkka_nissila wrote:
They don't say that. Canon say that they focus on mirrorless lenses (expected since it's a new system) and fully support the EF mount. If the market demands, they will make new EF lenses.

A site called "mirrorlessrumors" obviously puts its own spin on everything, interpreting it in a way that whatever is being quoted, they can say "mirrorless rules!!!"

It doesn't take even elementary reading comprehension skills to see that this is that site's spin, and they would have put it on anything Canon says.



Mr Hogan also read it that way.

From his article:

"Meanwhile, one Canon executive in Europe is quoted as saying that EF lens development will no longer be pursued. Another indication that the 1DX m3 (and probably D6) may be the last of the top-end DSLRs. "

Amazing that he can have such strong writing skills, and such poor, "elementary reading comprehension skills".

Edited on Jan 08, 2020 at 10:35 AM · View previous versions



Jan 08, 2020 at 10:32 AM
reggieb
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p.1 #16 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Jorgen Udvang wrote:
Oh spare me. Mr. Sour Grapes Hogan. Many photographers, myself included, still like to use DSLR cameras. We like optical viewfinders. We like being able to take thousands of photos without having to carry a bag of batteries. Now, Nikon has launched one that offers most of the video advantages of a mirrorless body except the EVF. I couldn't be happier. Once I have the necessary monies, I'll buy it without trying. That the D750 is x dollars cheaper is not interesting. the D750 cannot do what the D780 can. It's a simple as that. If you want or
...Show more

My Z6 is no harder on batteries than my D500. I am not talking about quoted specs, but what I actually get using the camera. My Z6 tends to overperform on its stated life, while the D500 has always grossly underperformed in that regard. That said, with about 4 batteries and a good solar charger, I find that I can seemingly shoot them indefinitely, so I'm not worried in either case.

(Admittedly, my D3s still slaughters them both with its now 10 year old battery, even the DSTE backup I have that's probably 5-6 years old performs at least as well as the EN-EL15s)

sum1sgrampa wrote:
I can see the future for me. And I'm salivating watching the prices on Nikon's exotic F mount teles getting lower and lower and closer to my price range. And pretty soon all those gear chasers who purchased Z7's and whatnot to replace their D850's they obviously didn't need in the first place will be offering those up for bargain prices too. It always kills me when I read " since I got my Z7 I haven't picked up my D850."
Well maybe you didn't need a camera with all the D850 capabilities to begin with. So I'll continue to shoot
...Show more

I don't know man. I made the switch to Nikon from full 4/3 (not the micro stuff). Every once in a while I curiously check the market for the SHG glass - I still have my 35-100 f/2, though I've often thought the 90-250 would be cool to own - the damn things are still going for a couple grand. Of course, there are WAY more Nikon exotics in the wild, so that'll help.



Jan 08, 2020 at 10:33 AM
Jorgen Udvang
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p.1 #17 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


chez wrote:
Question is how many new photographers prefer a DSLR over a mirrorless?


An overwhelming majority will prefer mirrorless mainly for two reasons:

- Beginners prefer small cameras that are easy to carry and use. It's much easier to make a compact camera with a good quality EVF than a compact DSLR with a nice, bright OVF.
- Camera marketing is mostly about mirrorless. Many young people will never learn that there is such a thing as a DSLR.

When it comes to photo enthusiasts (not camera enthusiasts, that's a different thing), I suspect it's more like 50/50. For sports photography, there's no competition. The A9 is a nice camera and the E-M1X even more so, but there's simply no reason to dump the optical viewfinder and long battery life and replace it with "technology" when visual contact with the scene is a must.

I was an early mirrorless adopter with Panasonic GH1, and have had a large number of mirrorless cameras from Panasonic and other brands. I have dumped DSLR twice and have been through D80, D300, D2Xs, D700, D610, D800 and D810. The D780 is the camera I've been waiting for. I'll keep m4/3 for when I need to go extremely compact and for long telephoto. But for photography, I'll use DSLR, digital and film.



Jan 08, 2020 at 10:33 AM
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p.1 #18 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Jorgen Udvang wrote:
Oh spare me. Mr. Sour Grapes Hogan. Many photographers, myself included, still like to use DSLR cameras. We like optical viewfinders. We like being able to take thousands of photos without having to carry a bag of batteries. Now, Nikon has launched one that offers most of the video advantages of a mirrorless body except the EVF. I couldn't be happier. Once I have the necessary monies, I'll buy it without trying. That the D750 is x dollars cheaper is not interesting. the D750 cannot do what the D780 can. It's a simple as that. If you want or
...Show more

That also includes Hogan, whose primary body remains the D850

His point is that the makers are facing a volume issue and if they want to reverse the volume decline they need to do better than 'solid but not compelling' on body updates. Quite simply most photographers have a body that meets their needs today and the new bodies don't bring a compelling reason to update to the table.

Is the D780 better than the D750? Yes. No doubt about that even despite a couple bits of decontenting.

For the typical D750 shooter does the D780 bring any compelling reason to upgrade to it? Nope. If you're a video guy, sure, but the Z6 is a better video body than the D780 for less money.

Is the LV better? yeah, and LV AF is miles better. But if you have a D750 and are a stills shooter primarily you have no real compelling reason to buy a new D780 (and if you're buying into the system, the huge price difference between the two more than offsets the mild improvements of the D780)

If Nikon wants to move bodies, their new bodies need to give the buyer a compelling reason to buy them over their current bodies. And today, the only current FX body that can really say that over its predecessors is the D850, and it's been around long enough that most of the upgraders already have.

What Nikon (and everbody else) needs to bring to the table is either wildly more bang for the buck, or innovation that solves actual user issues. Just solid iterations of current product won't do it and we've seen neither of the former two from any of the major brands in a while. Sony delivered teh first with their Mark III A7's and the original A9, but the A9II and A7RIV are just iteration. Canon's done nothing but iterate mildly since the 5DmII, Nikon delivered with the D850 and D500 a few years ago, but everything else since the D4/D800 era has been mild iterations.

So Nikon. You want me to buy new?

Solve problems I actually have. Everything in the D780 except LVAF solves a problem you already solved, just a bit better than the previous solution.

Deliver a better workflow, because the current one SUCKS. Make getting images to my Instagram/Flickr/500px/website easy, give me a real mobile workflow so I can shoot->Edit->post/print on the go. And don't try and do it with some crappy walled garden platform because you don't have the resources to make that platform competitive, nor do I want to buy some expensive and large dongle for stuff that should be built-in (WT-7A anyone?)

Give me the capability to do the things my Pixel can do in my D/Z body. How about real multishot capabilities. Focus stacking, synthetic ND, multishot HDR to RAW with comparable performance to Google Camera, high-res multishot, debayer multishot, etc...

How about an in-camera API and app platform (Sony tried this, but never really released the API's and used a walled garden to get apps in). Let me load the features I want, but make them seamless to use (unlike Sony's in-camera apps). Let me combine features in ways you didn't expect (inc-camera workflow scripts would be cool and useful)

Let me run the camera off USB power, not just charge from it. heck, how about an external USB-C based EN-EL15 charger.

Change the game. because it's game changers that will sell cameras. Iteration worked from 1999-2012 or so because the iterations were generally big and real problems were being solved, sensors were improving in huge jumps and so was processing. But a D800 is still a competent and competitive camera today, as is a D4 or a D7100 or even the much-maligned D600. Are today's cameras better/faster? Sure they are, but it's incrementally so, not revolutionary. And those bodies are all 2-3 generations old and many of their users aren't even looking at a new body. Give them a reason to by solving problems those bodies don't.



Jan 08, 2020 at 10:38 AM
thedruid
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p.1 #19 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


Interested to see hear or read, who is buying the D780 at $2300, or are you waiting until the first discount, maybe Black Friday 10.5 loooong months...considering the cash cow and all


Jan 08, 2020 at 10:42 AM
mawz
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p.1 #20 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?


thedruid wrote:
Interested to see hear or read, who is buying the D780 at $2300, or are you waiting until the first discount, maybe Black Friday 10.5 loooong months...considering the cash cow and all


Given I can get a D750 for $1500 new or a Z6 for $1850 new with an FTZ, or both refurbished for $2400, buying a D780 for $2300 doesn't make a lot of sense. Nikon just has a LOT better deals in that market segment.

I don't think the D780 is going to move a lot of units until it slips noticeably below $2k



Jan 08, 2020 at 10:49 AM
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