p.9 #1 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
charles.K wrote:
There is good reason why Canon is still No:1.
I agree with your entire post on the validity of the DSLRs Charles. They all still make great images.
However, the market is changing at a rate, and to a degree, no one anticipated. This article from Australia's own "Inside Imaging" points out that Canon has surprisingly lost the number 1 position ($$$$ wise) to Sony.
p.9 #2 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1bwana1 wrote:
I agree with your entire post on the validity of the DSLRs Charles. They all still make great images.
However, the market is changing at a rate, and to a degree, no one anticipated. This article from Australia's own "Inside Imaging" points out that Canon has surprisingly lost the number 1 position ($$$$ wise) to Sony.
Interesting article. Here's a quote I laughed at, "So it’s smartphones wot done it, according to Canon CEO Fujio Mitarai, who also said that the market could shrink by half in the next two years: ‘…we expect the market contraction to continue for another two to three years, due to the rise of the smartphones.'"
2-3 years? Try "till the end of time". I had just watched the following on youtube:
I don't think aps-c or m43 are going to survive. These smartphones will only get better, with zoom lenses and computational photography. It'll just be FF within 5 years. I'm not very optimistic about Canon's or Nikon's future. Sony will survive simply because they're the arms dealer for all of photography and videography. There is a potential future where even FF mirrorless becomes relics of history. Hate to be a debbie downer, but the future is not bright for these camera makers. They're 10 years too late with the necessary innovations needed to survive. They should have reacted when the first iPhone came out.
p.9 #3 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
sflxn wrote:
I don't think aps-c or m43 are going to survive. These smartphones will only get better, with zoom lenses and computational photography. It'll just be FF within 5 years. I'm not very optimistic about Canon's or Nikon's future. Sony will survive simply because they're the arms dealer for all of photography and videography. There is a potential future where even FF mirrorless becomes relics of history. Hate to be a debbie downer, but the future is not bright for these camera makers. They're 10 years too late with the necessary innovations needed to survive. They should have reacted when the first iPhone came out....Show more →
Good luck using that Huawei P30Pro for BIF shots and other long range action photography (while for similar amount of money you could get a pretty capable camera for such images). All the computational imaging technology in the world is not going to help if you start out with a lens that is worse than f/64 equiv. on FF. There is no way to have a big front lens on a tiny smartphone, and using an array of small lenses with lots of processing will only work in some situations; end of story ...
While the market for ILC/DSLR cameras is shrinking fast I think there are enough applications where smartphones cannot compete. Camera companies will have to adjust to the new reality, keep innovating (especially in areas where smartphones cannot compete, not try to be a smartphone ...) and downsize to something similar to the situation of 40-50 years ago.
p.9 #4 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Smartphones without question have changed the demographics of people taking photos and videos. But then combine the ease of social media it is almost a religion for many people.
I am about to upgrade our S8+ phones to Hauwei P30 Pro but still waiting for some new models about to be introduced.
It is almost like only the dinosaurs and dedicated photographers are now concerned about DSLR's, MILC's or RF. Photography/vidoegraphy is growing at an amazing rate and no one is immune to Instagram, FB or Twitter. Why would someone mess around uploading photos from FF/APS-C or M43 when you push a button from a smart phone and you are done
Videography is growing very fast and the best options are MILC's. Drones are proving to be very popular now and used extensively for real estate photography, movie scenes and plain fun too
My system now includes Samsung S8+, D850/D750 and a Drone. Photography has never been so much fun! People need to lighten up and enjoy the technology surge
p.9 #6 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
ggreene wrote:
It's a strange dynamic being a Canon user. On one hand i want them to do well but in the other I want them to feel more pressure so they will compete harder especially in the realm of camera bodies.
The doom and gloom folks have been repeating their demise for a long time yet they still stay on top. I wouldn't be so quick to put the Kodak label on them.
Totally agree that they have critical decisions to make in the short term. TWT
There’s another label that Canon needs to steer clear of too. Remember Nokia cell phones? They went the way of the doo doo even with the support of Microsoft. Another aspect for me as a Sony user is that Canon may be the only one who can keep Sony on their toes, forcing Sony to keep innovating, in the longer run.
Monopolies and duopolies are a bad thing, so lets hope several, as in more than two, manufacturers can stay healthy and competitive.
p.9 #7 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Mathieu18 wrote:
I generally agree but I still think Canon has painted themselves into a corner, remains to be seen if they can get out of it or not. Their share is built on the old market, but Sony isn’t an extension of the DSLR camera market, it’s a disruptor in the truest sense and it’s reshaping the market. I don’t think it’s too far fetched to say it’s similar to the shift from film to digital, and as someone else pointed out, Kodak was once a power house in the film game... marketing arms can only work their magic for so long. The steps they take over the next few years are pretty critical.
BUT, when you have the goods, marketing will sustain you as long as you have an underlying product to market, even if someone has a better product. Kodak is a really, really poor example to use in this case. Kodak was predominantly a FILM mfr, trying to get into the digital camera market WITHOUT a strong camera / lens base. The professional digital cameras they did "make" were still reliant on others ... both on the BODY & especially on the GLASS (and an outsourced sensor). In other words, despite having the Kodak name on my DCS SLR/C (which I still have) ... there was very little that was truly Kodak. In that regard, marketing couldn't overcome the LACK of an actual product base.
Canon, OTOH ... ummm, they have have both BODY & GLASS to undergird their marketing with REAL product base. Are ALL of their products necessarily the BEST in ALL regard? No, but then again, neither is GM's product lineup necessarily the best in all regard. Comparing Canon's marketing to Kodak's marketing alone, is omitting the vast difference between what was undergirding that marketing.
That's not to say that others (i.e. Sony, Nikon) can't / won't garner some of Canon's marketshare with product offerings that are different / better than Canon's. BUT, I think it will be a really long day before Canon goes by the way of Kodak. I expect, I'll become more like Kodak long before Canon does.
p.9 #8 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
RustyBug wrote:
+1 that marketing can only take you so far.
BUT, when you have the goods, marketing will sustain you as long as you have an underlying product to market, even if someone has a better product. Kodak is a really, really poor example to use in this case. Kodak was predominantly a FILM mfr, trying to get into the digital camera market WITHOUT a strong camera / lens base. The professional digital cameras they did "make" were still reliant on others ... both on the BODY & especially on the GLASS (and an outsourced sensor). In other words, despite having the Kodak name on my DCS SLR/C (which I still have) ... there was very little that was truly Kodak. In that regard, marketing couldn't overcome the LACK of an actual product base.
Canon, OTOH ... ummm, they have have both BODY & GLASS to undergird their marketing with REAL product base. Are ALL of their products necessarily the BEST in ALL regard? No, but then again, neither is GM's product lineup necessarily the best in all regard. Comparing Canon's marketing to Kodak's marketing alone, is omitting the vast difference between what was undergirding that marketing.
That's not to say that others (i.e. Sony, Nikon) can't / won't garner some of Canon's marketshare with product offerings that are different / better than Canon's. BUT, I think it will be a really long day before Canon goes by the way of Kodak. I expect, I'll become more like Kodak long before Canon does.
p.9 #9 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
sflxn wrote:
Interesting article. Here's a quote I laughed at, "So it’s smartphones wot done it, according to Canon CEO Fujio Mitarai, who also said that the market could shrink by half in the next two years: ‘…we expect the market contraction to continue for another two to three years, due to the rise of the smartphones.'"
2-3 years? Try "till the end of time". I had just watched the following on youtube:
I don't think aps-c or m43 are going to survive. These smartphones will only get better, with zoom lenses and computational photography. It'll just be FF within 5 years. I'm not very optimistic about Canon's or Nikon's future. Sony will survive simply because they're the arms dealer for all of photography and videography. There is a potential future where even FF mirrorless becomes relics of history. Hate to be a debbie downer, but the future is not bright for these camera makers. They're 10 years too late with the necessary innovations needed to survive. They should have reacted when the first iPhone came out....Show more →
Eye-opening video! And to think the DSLR religious spent all their anger, spittle and keyboards attacking Sony mirrorless all these years when in reality smartphone photography has not even quietly been taking over the world.
p.9 #10 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
bjornthun wrote:
Nokia was no. 1 in cell phones, had all the products, manufacturing capacity and marketing, and still they went away.
Yes, but that was in an emerging / neophyte industry. The roots of the industry weren't nearly as deep as the photography industry. And companies can come to their demise for many other reasons (other than their products), as well. Not saying it CAN'T happen ... just not holding my breath, waiting for the demise of Canon.
I figure I'll run out of breath on my own, long before Canon does.
p.9 #11 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
LBJ2 wrote:
Eye-opening video! And to think the DSLR religious spent all their anger, spittle and keyboards attacking Sony mirrorless all these years when in reality smartphone photography has not even quietly been taking over the world.
There is no doubt, that for the average Joe a smartphone paired with computational photography and several lenses does the job.
For the demanding professional as well as enthusiast, this will take a long time until they will get obsolete. Most AI stuff can be incorporated in larger dedicated cameras, too.
And for loading up crappy images at low resolution on FB or instagram, it doesn't require a big fat FF camera.
p.9 #12 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Just got P30 Pro, still playing with it, but so far, very impressive for a such a small sensor.
I'm thinking at the moment, I have no need for a big camera, when I'm hiking or any kind of casual street photography, but let's see what's is gonna turn into.
p.9 #13 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
bjornthun wrote:
There’s another label that Canon needs to steer clear of too. Remember Nokia cell phones? They went the way of the doo doo even with the support of Microsoft. Another aspect for me as a Sony user is that Canon may be the only one who can keep Sony on their toes, forcing Sony to keep innovating, in the longer run.
Monopolies and duopolies are a bad thing, so lets hope several, as in more than two, manufacturers can stay healthy and competitive.
One thing remains true. It will be the innovators that survive. I can see a situation with MILC where Sony ends up dominating FF and Fuji dominates APS-C.
p.9 #14 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Fair points, but Canon's market is predominately DSLR, and if that goes away like film, then they have nothing. I think that's what I was driving out. Now the M's are selling decently, the R's less so. As someone else pointed out the problem is they are distinct systems. I think Canon can get themselves out of the mess of their own creating, but a couple missteps and they'll be more like Nikon than the current Canon.
RustyBug wrote:
+1 that marketing can only take you so far.
BUT, when you have the goods, marketing will sustain you as long as you have an underlying product to market, even if someone has a better product. Kodak is a really, really poor example to use in this case. Kodak was predominantly a FILM mfr, trying to get into the digital camera market WITHOUT a strong camera / lens base. The professional digital cameras they did "make" were still reliant on others ... both on the BODY & especially on the GLASS (and an outsourced sensor). In other words, despite having the Kodak name on my DCS SLR/C (which I still have) ... there was very little that was truly Kodak. In that regard, marketing couldn't overcome the LACK of an actual product base.
Canon, OTOH ... ummm, they have have both BODY & GLASS to undergird their marketing with REAL product base. Are ALL of their products necessarily the BEST in ALL regard? No, but then again, neither is GM's product lineup necessarily the best in all regard. Comparing Canon's marketing to Kodak's marketing alone, is omitting the vast difference between what was undergirding that marketing.
That's not to say that others (i.e. Sony, Nikon) can't / won't garner some of Canon's marketshare with product offerings that are different / better than Canon's. BUT, I think it will be a really long day before Canon goes by the way of Kodak. I expect, I'll become more like Kodak long before Canon does.
p.9 #15 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
LBJ2 wrote:
Eye-opening video! And to think the DSLR religious spent all their anger, spittle and keyboards attacking Sony mirrorless all these years when in reality smartphone photography has not even quietly been taking over the world.
Smartphone photography = Sony
Mirrorless ICL = Sony
I don't see Nikon mirrorless getting a huge number of switchers from Canon when they make the move to mirrorless.
I don't see Canon mirrorless getting a huge number switchers from Nikon when they make the move to mirrorless.
Both are currently just fighting to slow the bleeding of their user base.
I see vast majority of switchers from either Nikon or Canon going to Sony.
Canon having such a huge user base is in a better position to weather a large reduction in user base. The math is pretty straight forward. I think that all three brands (not necessarily as independent companies) will survive. But the power in the industry is in flux.
p.9 #16 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1bwana1 wrote:
Smartphone photography = Sony
Mirrorless ICL = Sony
I don't see Nikon mirrorless getting a huge number of switchers from Canon when they make the move to mirrorless.
I don't see Canon mirrorless getting a huge number switchers from Nikon when they make the move to mirrorless.
Both are currently just fighting to slow the bleeding of their user base.
I see vast majority of switchers from either Nikon or Canon going to Sony.
Canon having such a huge user base is in a better position to weather a large reduction in user base. The math is pretty straight forward. I think that all three brands (not necessarily as independent companies) will survive. But the power in the industry is in flux.
I think the biggest point above is the current user base of DSLR users. Canon's base must be huge and if they start to migrate to mirrorless, Canon sales will be just fine. I understand the existing Canon lenses work very well on their mirrorless cameras so the majority will just supplement their DSLR system with a Canon mirrorless camera. Sure some might jump to Sony as they can still use their lenses...but I would think the majority would stay with a Canon mirrorless camera.
p.9 #17 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
chez wrote:
I think the biggest point above is the current user base of DSLR users. Canon's base must be huge and if they start to migrate to mirrorless, Canon sales will be just fine. I understand the existing Canon lenses work very well on their mirrorless cameras so the majority will just supplement their DSLR system with a Canon mirrorless camera. Sure some might jump to Sony as they can still use their lenses...but I would think the majority would stay with a Canon mirrorless camera.
Will the Canon DSLR users migrate to Canon mirrorless? There’s a large number of those who just bought a Rebel with a kit lens. They can buy just about any brand if they actually go mirrorless, as the kit lens isn’t worth the price nor the technical hassle of an adapter. Or, they can buy a Huawei or Apple or Samsung...
The video posted by sflxn is indeed an eye opener.
p.9 #19 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
I can't wrap my head around the idea that no one at Canon (seemingly) has said "We sure seem to be getting a lot of crap and losing ground to Sony because of our sensors-let's make a better one"
p.9 #20 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
mfenske wrote:
I can't wrap my head around the idea that no one at Canon (seemingly) has said "We sure seem to be getting a lot of crap and losing ground to Sony because of our sensors-let's make a better one"
To which the CEO said "we are taking measures to shift our business focus toward B2B, expanding our business sphere to automotive and industry use". That guy doesn't get it, fire him.....
