p.8 #1 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
vdo1 wrote:
Yes but their army of shills has run out of ammo. They’re now grasping at straws, like “menu science” and “pinky rest science”. These can help with only so many sales.
I'm just looking at the latest market figures and Canon has nearly 50% of the market. What indication do you have things will change?
p.8 #7 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1: can you split by sensor size?
2: if they can’t sell their sensors to any third party they are losing quite some market
3: keyword is “has”. past tense.
4: licensing drivers / software libraries and / or patents to perform imaging functions in a device with imaging sensor(s). Usually controlled by the sensor maker. Makes money too.
p.8 #8 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
chez wrote:
I'm just looking at the latest market figures and Canon has nearly 50% of the market. What indication do you have things will change?
Tamron:
"APS-C is still important to us, but when we think about the [industry], the full-frame market is expanding, so we’re looking at that market first - that’s the first priority. So gradually we’ll create a [full-frame] line and then at another time we can launch more APS-C lenses. The APS-C market is shrinking quite fast."
As I have long predicted, the market is consolidating on the high end and on FF. I'm not sure what Canon, Sony, or Fuji can do with APS-C to stem the contraction. It doesn't seem to matter what their APS-C marketshare is today. Consider this, once the A7IV comes out, we will see new A7III go for $1k new, maybe $600 used. At that price, what's the point of picking up a cropped sensor camera with lessor AF and IQ?
p.8 #9 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
vdo1 wrote:
1: can you split by sensor size?
3: keyword is “has”. past tense.
4: licensing drivers / software libraries and / or patents to perform imaging functions in a device with imaging sensor(s). Usually controlled by the sensor maker. Makes money too.
1. Nope. You have any insight?
2. Past tense is 2018...not that past. Has held steady over the last 5 years. Sony has risen...Nikon diving. Have anything to add?
4. Sony sensor makers are a different division than Sony cameras. So any patents, licensing etc... Does not end up in the camera division. So what's your point?
p.8 #10 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
chambeshi wrote:
3. Fix the FTZ so it gives full F-Nikkor compatibility ie the FTZd with AI ring and S'driver AF motor. This will sell a pile of Z cameras to established Nikon users, as well as support aspiring youngsters on a budget to get up and shooting
This.
Why would many/most Nikon users switch if they already have a full system with fantastic previous gen AF lenses? And a system that works perfectly with old manual focus lenses?
p.8 #11 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
I generally agree but I still think Canon has painted themselves into a corner, remains to be seen if they can get out of it or not. Their share is built on the old market, but Sony isn’t an extension of the DSLR camera market, it’s a disruptor in the truest sense and it’s reshaping the market. I don’t think it’s too far fetched to say it’s similar to the shift from film to digital, and as someone else pointed out, Kodak was once a power house in the film game... marketing arms can only work their magic for so long. The steps they take over the next few years are pretty critical.
chez wrote:
Come on...Canon's cameras have been behind in tech for the last 5 years...yet they kept their market share. Seems like a lot of "fool me once" customers. In the same 5 years, Nikon's advanced cameras have lost market share...why do you think that is the case? Sometimes ( in fact many times ) the best product does not win. Brand and marketing many times outweighs technical advancements.
p.8 #12 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
chez wrote:
1. Nope. You have any insight?
2. Past tense is 2018...not that past. Has held steady over the last 5 years. Sony has risen...Nikon diving. Have anything to add?
4. Sony sensor makers are a different division than Sony cameras. So any patents, licensing etc... Does not end up in the camera division. So what's your point?
1. Guess they sold many more Rebels and Ms than 5Ds? Having the lion’s share of a dying market is not a very rosy thing.
2. Having introduced yet another lens mount may have a chilling effect. Would you buy new lenses from them this year? If yes, which mount would you pick? Dilemma -> no sale, just “wait and see how it turns out”
4. There’s lots of sensor R&D money coming in from many sources, ultimately it ends up benefiting the camera division too.
Apr 30, 2019 at 09:45 PM
brian_sp Offline • • • • [X]
p.8 #13 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
BPsmith511 wrote:
Really seems like a small sample size and just overall bias here.
busted, yes, you are right, i decided to make up all lies to save my being bias, you are too smart for me
p.8 #14 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Mathieu18 wrote:
I generally agree but I still think Canon has painted themselves into a corner, remains to be seen if they can get out of it or not. Their share is built on the old market, but Sony isn’t an extension of the DSLR camera market, it’s a disruptor in the truest sense and it’s reshaping the market. I don’t think it’s too far fetched to say it’s similar to the shift from film to digital, and as someone else pointed out, Kodak was once a power house in the film game... marketing arms can only work their magic for so long. The steps they take over the next few years are pretty critical....Show more →
It's a strange dynamic being a Canon user. On one hand i want them to do well but in the other I want them to feel more pressure so they will compete harder especially in the realm of camera bodies.
The doom and gloom folks have been repeating their demise for a long time yet they still stay on top. I wouldn't be so quick to put the Kodak label on them.
Totally agree that they have critical decisions to make in the short term. TWT
p.8 #15 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
PicGuy wrote:
I think the market is shrinking because the DSLR segment is quickly dying and MILC is growing but not fast enough to offset the DSLR decline.
MILC is not growing in terms of units. For the first three months of the year MILC units are down 10% as compared with last year although MILC shipped value is up 3%.
p.8 #16 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
I am not a Canon fan. I think that Nikon makes the best DSLRs by a big margin. I think Sony makes good Crop and the best FF Mirrorless ICL Cameras. To me on a purely technical bases Canon is third of the big three.
However, I think Canon will use its user base, brand, and marketing power, to remain a leading brand in the camera business as the move to mirrorless matures, and the market shrinks. Both Canon, and Sony, have huge diverse businesses that will help them through this disruptive time.
It looks to me that of the big three, Nikon is the most vulnerable. I think the Z camera release issues has compounded Nikons problems. We will know much more about how Nikon is faring currently when we see the numbers on May 9th. But even then, we must acknowledge that this is a long game and anything can happen.
Here is a look at Canons current position from Inside Imaging.
No matter what, we must acknowledge what a fantastic job Sony has done. They are the driving force behind this move to mirrorless, and are benefitting the most from it.
p.8 #17 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
sflxn wrote:
Tamron:
"APS-C is still important to us, but when we think about the [industry], the full-frame market is expanding, so we’re looking at that market first - that’s the first priority. So gradually we’ll create a [full-frame] line and then at another time we can launch more APS-C lenses. The APS-C market is shrinking quite fast."
As I have long predicted, the market is consolidating on the high end and on FF. I'm not sure what Canon, Sony, or Fuji can do with APS-C to stem the contraction. It doesn't seem to matter what their APS-C marketshare is today. Consider this, once the A7IV comes out, we will see new A7III go for $1k new, maybe $600 used. At that price, what's the point of picking up a cropped sensor camera with lessor AF and IQ? ...Show more →
The big advantage of APS-C is less size and weight. The smaller sensor allows for smaller, lighter camera bodies and especially lenses. Also, there is no reason the price of APS-C can't drop to levels lower than FF. The APS-C crop factor is very much desired by wildlife and action shooters. The next camera I buy (hopefully Sony's rumored baby A9) will be APS-C for the reasons I stated above. Fuji is offering APS-C cameras that are legitimate alternatives to consider against FF. Sony keeps cranking out new ASP-C sensors and Canon is rumored to have a new APS-C sensor soon. I don't see APS-C going away any time soon.
p.8 #18 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
zoetmb wrote:
MILC is not growing in terms of units. For the first three months of the year MILC units are down 10% as compared with last year although MILC shipped value is up 3%.
I meant my comment to be as a percentage of market share and overall not fast enough to replace lost DSLR sales.
p.8 #19 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
chez wrote:
I'm just looking at the latest market figures and Canon has nearly 50% of the market. What indication do you have things will change?
The bulk of that 50% is from DSLR sales. Canon knows they are phasing out new DLSR models and this is going to cause the number of units they sell to tank. This is why they are forecasting such drastic drops in sales numbers in the coming years. The other massive hit they will take when DSLR sales slow to a crawl Is a huge drop in EF lens sales. Between DSLR and EF lens sales dropping they are likely going to see a massive revenue drop.
If Canon thinks they can survive on reputation alone then they are fools. History is littered with the corpses of dead corporations that tried this same tactic. I am not saying Canon, as a corporation, is in jeopardy but their consumer camera division very well could be in a few years if they don't innovate or do the R&D necessary to keep them relevant in the ILC market.
p.8 #20 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
ggreene wrote:
It's a strange dynamic being a Canon user. On one hand i want them to do well but in the other I want them to feel more pressure so they will compete harder especially in the realm of camera bodies.
The doom and gloom folks have been repeating their demise for a long time yet they still stay on top. I wouldn't be so quick to put the Kodak label on them.
Totally agree that they have critical decisions to make in the short term. TWT
I honestly don't see what all the fuss is about and the pending gloom and doom. Has anyone used a 5DIV? Personally I love the body and there are some great lens combinations second to none. The size/weight and ergonomics are great also.The 5DIV is almost the size as the D750 which I consider ideal size for FF body. There is good reason why Canon is still No:1. Sure you could bump up the DR with updated sensors but there are still so many wedding photographers that continue to use them
Of course the future is trending to MILC's but there is still huge installed base of bodies and lenses out there and many photographers have no immediate need to upgrade. To be honest I will be happy for my D850 to coexist with a MILC for quite a few years yet as there is a huge lens selection. Each system has its strengths and weaknesses.
