p.6 #2 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
vdo1 wrote:
From my crystal ball: in one year or so C will come up with with an RR with 5D class sensor. Also they will “leak” a future, even better RR+. 2 years later the RR+ will show up as an RR without the AA filter. However, the RR and the RR+ will be found to be crippled in complementary ways, so you couldn’t be fully happy with any of them. A mysterious R1 will be leaked at that time. 3 years later C will introduce a new lens mount.
No question that Canon's market segmentation and intentional gimping is not helping their cause. The other problem is they may not have the tech to actually do it so they look bad no matter what. The EOS R was lacking to say the least going up against the A7III. If a higher end EOS R comes out and still can't compete at the D850 or A7rIII level in late 2019 that is going to look awful. A 1DR would look to be a precursor to the 2022 Olympics at that rate.
p.6 #3 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1bwana1 wrote:
The way I heard it is that price is not enough to drive the Gen1 Z cameras, Nikon should give up on Gen1 and wait for Gen2 to compete in the mirrorless market. Starting at about 9:00 minutes.
I listened to this video more closely starting at about 9:00 minutes as you suggested. He did, in fact, suggest they wait until Gen2.
p.6 #4 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
To an extent that is true. However, some of the Dr expansion and noise suppression happens in the imaging ASIC, as demonstrated by the D800 which got lower noise and higher DR than Sony with the same sensor. At least that is how I remember it.
SouthwestS2K wrote:
If I were Nikon, I'd be putting more money into R&D for top notch ISO performance and dynamic range. Their AF systems are already being praised as the best out there.
1bwana1 wrote:
Not sure I am getting this. Nikon depends on Sony sensors for dynamic range and ISO performance. The only way to lead in this category would be for them to find a new sensor source.
Nikon AF is class leading in some Nikon DSLRs, I agree. But it is one of the areas where the perception is that Nikon has issues in their current mirrorless releases. This is the area people are hoping for a "secret" fix for in the next firmware update the brings Human Eye AF.
p.6 #5 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
IMO, Canon used M50 and DSLR parts to create the R and followed it up with M50 and 6D2 parts for the RP. The R was outclassed on nearly every performance measure by the older A7/3 that cost $300 less. How Canon thought this would be a long term winner left me scratching my head. I figured they wold get early sales by those who had the spare income and/or curiosity to buy the R. Once these people played out there was little reason for value hunters or discerning enthusiasts to buy one. I think they are at this point and to keep moving product they have to keep slashing the price. For me the R is not an option due to its poor action shooting ability.
Then we have the RP and I can't see why Canon did not launch the RF 24-240mm lens with it as a kit. Instead they have a super budget body with one budget RF prime lens. I don't think the RP will be a big seller for the long term unless Canon keeps slashing its price.
IMO, the root of Canon's problem is their lack of R&D to keep them close to the competition. When we have the A7/3 for $2k, and its price still hasn't dropped since launch, with a replacement getting closer as each month passes. Sony will drop the price substantially on the A7/3 when the A7/4 comes out which will put even more pressure on the R and RP. Then when the A9/2 comes out the A9 will be far more affordable and put pressure on any action MILC Canon might release. I doubt Canon's first action oriented MILC will come close to the A9 let alone the A9/2.
What Canon is facing right now I have seen coming for years and years. That is they have a severe deficit in performance in their camera bodies due to lack of R&D. They can have all the wonderful, high end lenses but if they don't have a camera that allows us to wring the performance out of them it will stunt their sales. I hope the rumors we are reading about new sensors etc. come to pass because I can't see Canon staying as a serious player in MILC if they keep delivering underwhelming camera bodies. Especially when their main competitors are advancing their products very quickly.
p.6 #6 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Walk into a CostCo, BestBuy, or similar. You see a stack of boxes with an ad board. You don't know much about camera technology.
Smallest Full Frame Camera
Lightest Full Frame Camera
Full Frame is Best Image quality
Latest technology Mirrorless
Eye AF
Video Stuff (you can list it)
Send your images to your cell phone.
Instantly share with everyone
Largest assortment of high quality lenses in the industry
The latest technology from a name you know and trust
AND Ground breaking,Lowest price in its class.
Now watch a few Canon made videos to see who they are targeting.
Currently it is the 2nd best seller in FF mirrorless despite all its short comings.
Every one of these young, unknowledgeable buyers is now in the Canan ecosystem.
Do you think this camera was targeted at knowledgeable people on an FM type forum?
Canon is a consumer electronics marketing powerhouse. They know exactly why they made the RP.
p.6 #7 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
Relax. In calendar 2018, Japan was only 14.7% of worldwide camera unit sales and 12.1% of camera value. It's not representative of the world. Secondly, that graph only shows specific camera models and not all models.
On the other hand, Nikon has indeed been consistently losing market share. We'll know on May 9th how they did in the last quarter. But in Nikon's defense, they clearly stated several years ago that their strategy was going to be to focus on high-margin products and profit - not on units, revenue or market share. Now considering the substantial discounts in the U.S. they just implemented, they might be changing their tune and want to push both body and lens units to gain back some share and reduce inventory.
The market is shrinking so rapidly that not all the players will survive. I believe that in the next 2-3 years, many of the smaller players will have to drop out of the market. That should increase Nikon's share slightly. And let's not forget that when Sony products don't make their numbers, Sony walks away from the market (Betamax, Minidisc, SDDS theatrical sound come to mind to name a few). While Sony's market share has been increasing, they are not making their numbers and they've just marked down their camera prices, especially on older models, just as everyone else has. The A9 is now $1500 below its original list price. I doubt there's much, if any profit selling it at that price.
p.6 #8 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
There was no way Minidisc could survive CD-R and then mp3 not to mention Spotify.
Betamax succumbed to VHS.
These are examples of physical format wars. In the digital realm multiple file formats can coexist, but it was harder to have physical formats targeted at the same audience coexisting. Sony’s hand was forced.
p.6 #9 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1bwana1 wrote:
Canon is a consumer electronics marketing powerhouse. They know exactly why they made the RP.
Maybe the RP is selling like hotcakes at the brick and mortar level. I don't know and have no numbers to give you but I don't think it's a good sign when it's not in the top selling 100 ML cameras on Amazon.
I know people have issues with Amazon's Top Selling lists but that looks troubling to me. As you said, Canon is hoping it's a high volume seller but it just doesn't look like it. The M50 is the high volume seller. Seems to me the RP is a tweener. Still too pricey for casual sales but lacking badly for any type of enthusiast.
p.6 #10 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1bwana1 wrote:
Walk into a CostCo, BestBuy, or similar. You see a stack of boxes with an ad board. You don't know much about camera technology.
It won't be long before those stacks of boxes won't be in Costco, or Best Buy or nearly anywhere. Right now Canon is king of a dying market (i.e. DSLRs). If Canon doesn't innovate they will never be a serious MILC camera maker by flooding the market with low tech camera bodies.
1bwana1 wrote:
Smallest Full Frame Camera
Lightest Full Frame Camera
Full Frame is Best Image quality
Latest technology Mirrorless
Eye AF
Video Stuff (you can list it)
Send your images to your cell phone.
Instantly share with everyone
Marketing hype only gets a company so far. As does past reputation.
1bwana1 wrote:
Largest assortment of high quality lenses in the industry
The latest technology from a name you know and trust
AND Ground breaking,Lowest price in its class.
Canon is giving us ground breaking technology? Did I miss a few MILC camera releases?
1bwana1 wrote:
Now watch a few Canon made videos to see who they are targeting.
Currently it is the 2nd best seller in FF mirrorless despite all its short comings.
Every one of these young, unknowledgeable buyers is now in the Canan ecosystem.
Do you think this camera was targeted at knowledgeable people on an FM type forum?
Canon is a consumer electronics marketing powerhouse. They know exactly why they made the RP.
Canon is targeting low information buyers and this is a quickly shrinking pool of people as they are moving solely to smartphones more and more as each year passes. Canon will not be a major player in the MILC arena if they don't offer technically competitive products at a competitive price. They need both of these features and not just one.
Also, the main feeder system Canon has used to gain DSLR dominance they have so far abandoned with their MILC offerings. That is using the lower cost ASP-C DSLRs to feed their FF segment. They have the EOS M and R systems that are totally incompatible with each other. This isn't a good marketing strategy and is not being used by any other major camera maker for a good reason. Maybe Canon has some grand strategy but I haven't seen any sign of it yet.
p.6 #11 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
In my opinion, there's very little either Canon nor Nikon can do at this point. If they wanted growth, they should have introduced their mirrorless in a growing market not a declining market. Regardless of how good the Nikon or Canon could have been (but wasn't), the market is in rapid decline. I'm not really sure why they waited, but the supply of potential buyers is far less now than it was 3 years ago.
If Canon and Nikon knew what their market is, then I don't think they were looking for explosive growth. Perhaps it was to stem the losses and maybe steal from Olympus, Panasonic, and Fuji. Sony will eventually feel the pain of this slowing market too. They maybe able to delay it if they keep the innovation pace up, but the return on investment must justify it. These companies are not going to go all out for marketshare in a declining market. They will likely focus on profits even if it means losing marketshare because eventually it will be about survival and not marketshare.
p.6 #13 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
zoetmb wrote:
The market is shrinking so rapidly that not all the players will survive. I believe that in the next 2-3 years, many of the smaller players will have to drop out of the market. That should increase Nikon's share slightly. And let's not forget that when Sony products don't make their numbers, Sony walks away from the market (Betamax, Minidisc, SDDS theatrical sound come to mind to name a few). While Sony's market share has been increasing, they are not making their numbers and they've just marked down their camera prices, especially on older models, just as everyone else has. The A9 is now $1500 below its original list price. I doubt there's much, if any profit selling it at that price. ...Show more →
I think the market is shrinking because the DSLR segment is quickly dying and MILC is growing but not fast enough to offset the DSLR decline. Many older people using DSLRs will never buy into MILC for preference reasons and along with monetary considerations. They will live with what they currently have or upgrade through the used market. This is a big hole developing in the ILC user base that will likely never be filled.
IMO, Sony walking away from a product that is not performing is a smart move. They have defined the MILC market segment for the most part. I am not surprised that they had to change course during the process. I look at the price drops the 5D4, and even the R, has seen and any price drop Sony has on the A9 is to be expected for a model that is close to being replaced. On the flip side, look at the A7/3. It has seen no price drop since it launched which is quite abnormal in today's camera market. Plus, Sony has the benefit of manufacturing and selling to its competitors most of the image sensors used in dedicated cameras being sold and many smartphones. My guess is that Sony is doing fine and in a position to dominate the MILC market for years to come if Canon doesn't step up.
p.6 #14 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
ggreene wrote:
Maybe the RP is selling like hotcakes at the brick and mortar level. I don't know and have no numbers to give you but I don't think it's a good sign when it's not in the top selling 100 ML cameras on Amazon.
I know people have issues with Amazon's Top Selling lists but that looks troubling to me. As you said, Canon is hoping it's a high volume seller but it just doesn't look like it. The M50 is the high volume seller. Seems to me the RP is a tweener. Still too pricey for casual sales but lacking badly for any type of enthusiast. ...Show more →
I think the main problem facing the RP is the people buying one will not spend $3k, $2k, $1k or even $500 on the lens. It is a camera body without a lens support system. I also don't see many DSLR users buying one when it has far worse action shooting ability than the DSLR they currently use.
p.6 #15 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
vdo1 wrote:
Ha ha. If anything, it was Sony that kept producing Betamax tapes until 2016. Now let’s talk a little bit about the FD lens mount, shall we?
p.6 #16 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
I keep thinking that a growing number of camera buyers are folks like myself who are wanting better images than their mobile, new to the hobby, with some disposable income, and research driven. Having no previous brand loyalty they will buy the brand that seems to offer the best bang for their buck...which for me was Sony-no question.
When I'm traveling I see FAR fewer cameras in general-mostly phones (and iPads-DERP) and fast forwarding a few years I think that continues which means camera buyers are folks like myself that want a competitive feature set even if it's a bit more.
p.6 #17 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
1bwana1 wrote:
Walk into a CostCo, BestBuy, or similar. You see a stack of boxes with an ad board. You don't know much about camera technology.
Smallest Full Frame Camera
Lightest Full Frame Camera
Full Frame is Best Image quality
Latest technology Mirrorless
Eye AF
Video Stuff (you can list it)
Send your images to your cell phone.
Instantly share with everyone
Largest assortment of high quality lenses in the industry
The latest technology from a name you know and trust
AND Ground breaking,Lowest price in its class.
Now watch a few Canon made videos to see who they are targeting.
Currently it is the 2nd best seller in FF mirrorless despite all its short comings.
Every one of these young, unknowledgeable buyers is now in the Canan ecosystem.
Do you think this camera was targeted at knowledgeable people on an FM type forum?
Canon is a consumer electronics marketing powerhouse. They know exactly why they made the RP....Show more →
Sigma and Tamron see opportunities in the growing FF market.
Nikon must see this too, hence the leverage they are trying (albeit one-handed) to exploit their new mount. Because, their future sales must hinge on how many Z cameras they sell and SOON. This is to capture DSLR users who expand/switch to MILC: ie buy a Z camera not another mount.
Then there is the less tech savvy emerging photographer..... Yet Canon first got out the key gadget (its MILC) to capture young, unknowledgeable buyers into the Canan ecosystem!
1. Capture Emerging Photographers [Z5 and free fully functional FTZ) and
2. meet the established buyers demanding not just new optics but most importantly the full suite of features in top-end MILCs [dual card slots, grip with extra/bigger battery, better Menu functionality, industry leading AF]
Canon is doing better at capture, but poorly at the top end; Nikon are flailing around at both ends. the Z cameras are excellent with haptics, weathersealing, sensors etc but Nikon are NOT improving their MILCs fast enough, delaying core FW fixes, too slow at closing the critical gaps in Z lenses [70-200 f4, a105, Micro-Nikkor etc] and overpricing the FTZ adapter. The FTZ shortchanges its invested Nikon users and puts off emerging photographers. How Ridiculous that Nikon price a partly functional glass-free tube higher than a kit prime optic ie the excellent 50 f1.8AFD, but it doesn't AF on the Z camera?!?
p.6 #18 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
chambeshi wrote:
How Ridiculous that Nikon price a partly functional glass-free tube higher than a kit prime optic ie the excellent 50 f1.8AFD, but it doesn't AF on the Z camera?!?
+1 ... IF they had a full(er) glass lineup, such that it was a CHOICE for shooters to use their F mount glass, then paying $$$ for it makes a bit more sense. BUT, since the glass lineup (currently) REQUIRES the FTZ for workhorse glass (i.e. 70-200/8, etc.), it is a bit premature to be charging "optional" $$$ for something that is not optional if full adoption is desired. Currently, it renders it in a "partial" adoption. That's not to say the transition period doesn't exist, but I think they might have given a bit different consideration to the diff where it is kinda required vs. optional. Currently, it isn't an option for many focal lengths.
p.6 #19 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
mfenske wrote:
I keep thinking that a growing number of camera buyers are folks like myself who are wanting better images than their mobile,
This presents an interesting perspective. By that, I mean there are those who are coming from a strong SLR/DSLR haptic perspective. For those folks, the Z is likely much more attractive than the Sony. For those coming from a mobile phone perspective, the haptic isn't as integral a part of their decision making (yet).
Given that those in a currently existing system (EF or F), then their haptics are already established. Bringing the MILC to the table, warrants some credence to the point that most people would prefer to retain one haptic (family), rather than having multiple. That's not to say folks CAN'T have multiple systems, but given a choice, most would prefer a single haptic oriented system.
p.6 #20 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon
mfenske wrote:
I keep thinking that a growing number of camera buyers are folks like myself who are wanting better images than their mobile, new to the hobby, with some disposable income, and research driven. Having no previous brand loyalty they will buy the brand that seems to offer the best bang for their buck...which for me was Sony-no question.
When I'm traveling I see FAR fewer cameras in general-mostly phones (and iPads-DERP) and fast forwarding a few years I think that continues which means camera buyers are folks like myself that want a competitive feature set even if it's a bit more.
One thing you are ignoring is the power of brand. Canon's brand is known world wide and has been associated with photography for 50 years. Sony not so much.
