p.10 #1 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Heard over the weekend that the Canon 5Ds/5Dsr has the dubious honor of being the most cancelled pre-order camera in recent times. I am not surprised. Sony is killing everybody and I believe the most affected one is Canon and the least affected one would be m43 i.e. Olympus and Panasonic. I cannot substantiate this, of course, but it makes a lot of sense to me. At this point in time, Sony has the best overall FF sensor and their bodies will accept most lenses with will AF function, while m43 has its own niche market - those who want a compact systems camera and is willing to forgo the IQ advantages that FF has to offer.
p.10 #2 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
bobbytan wrote:
Heard over the weekend that the Canon 5Ds/5Dsr has the dubious honor of being the most cancelled pre-order camera in recent times. I am not surprised. Sony is killing everybody and I believe the most affected one is Canon and the least affected one would be m43 i.e. Olympus and Panasonic. I cannot substantiate this, of course, but it makes a lot of sense to me. At this point in time, Sony has the best overall FF sensor and their bodies will accept most lenses with will AF function, while m43 has its own niche market - those who want a compact systems camera and is willing to forgo the IQ advantages that FF has to offer....Show more →
As I stated above in my former post, absolutely not surprised about it even we have to distinguish between 5Ds and 5DsR. The 5Ds was a bit doomed from the beginning against the 5DsR. But yes, both came much too late into the game - IMO they can only compete with a much lower price tag now. I also agree with your assumption which companies are most and least affected. Interestingly and in opposite to what I am often reading here and in the Sony forums, most people I know who are using the A7 series now are not using them with Canon lens gear but rather fully switched to Sony FE lenses or use other third party MF lens systems.
p.10 #3 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
I'm sure they make a lot of money on a7 series sales, but in terms of volume they sell way more a6000 and other APS-c cameras. So it depends if you are looking at the CIPA stats for units shipped or dollar value shipped or profit earned.
The Japanese yen has collapsed so hard this past year that I dont think we can reliably use that number as any indicator of success or not. There would have to be a pretty powerful equalization factor inserted into those numbers to account for the huge decline in value of the yen. Foreign sales in today's market are heavily over weighted compared to previous years.
p.10 #4 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
That is true too ... that more and more people are accepting Sony native lenses - especially the native Zeiss lenses, as they are proving to be just as good as the Canon or Nikon equivalent lenses. I am still sitting on the fence with regards to a FF Sony camera ... but the Zeiss 55/1.8 and the 2 Zeiss Batis lenses are very desirable lenses to have for the system.
retrofocus wrote:
As I stated above in my former post, absolutely not surprised about it even we have to distinguish between 5Ds and 5DsR. The 5Ds was a bit doomed from the beginning against the 5DsR. But yes, both came much too late into the game - IMO they can only compete with a much lower price tag now. I also agree with your assumption which companies are most and least affected. Interestingly and in opposite to what I am often reading here and in the Sony forums, most people I know who are using the A7 series now are not using them with Canon lens gear but rather fully switched to Sony FE lenses or use other third party MF lens systems. ...Show more →
p.10 #5 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
It's worth noting that customers are not necessarily being lost with the DSLR sales collapse.
If you bought any CaNikon body in the last 4-5 years there's little reason to upgrade today if the base body performance (AF, metering, FPS, resolution) meets your needs.
While I suspect a good chunk of the lack of sales is the disappearance of a lot of the casual users who bought DSLR's in the boom and have discovered they don't need them (the same thing happened after the AE boom in the late 70's and the AF boom in the early 90's), there's a large group who quit buying because upgrading nets them no appreciable gain.
If you have a D5200 and you don't need an extra control dial or 1fps, then going to a D7200 or a D5500 nets you almost zero gain. Going to a D610 or D750 nets you some IQ gain but little else. Why spend the money? Especially when money is tight.
If the DSLR makers don't return to generationally significant upgrades, they will need to deal with much lower sales numbers, even if they are higher-margin. Unless you shoot video, there's really been no significant new DSLR introduction since the D800. Upgrades for sure, but nothing groundbreaking.
p.10 #6 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
bobbytan wrote:
I was referring only to MILC and not the P&S fixed-lens mirrorless cameras.
I understand you meant MILC. I still completely disagree with the claim that every MILC camera sold is one DSLR not sold. I think there are many people would would buy a compact camera or P&S is MILC didn't exist or didn't meet their needs. Mirrorless users and DSLR users are not directly interchangeable, they absolutely have different needs and wants.
p.10 #7 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
... I still completely disagree with the claim that every MILC camera sold is one DSLR not sold. I think there are many people would would buy a compact camera or P&S is MILC didn't exist or didn't meet their needs. Mirrorless users and DSLR users are not directly interchangeable, they absolutely have different needs and wants.
I can speak only for myself. I held out replacing my Leica DMR as long as I did because the viewfinders and bulk of DSLR cameras made in the last 10 years do not appeal to me. The a7II isn't perfect but it's what I bought instead of a DSLR. I did not consider a P&S or compact camera.
p.10 #8 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
I understand you meant MILC. I still completely disagree with the claim that every MILC camera sold is one DSLR not sold. I think there are many people would would buy a compact camera or P&S is MILC didn't exist or didn't meet their needs. Mirrorless users and DSLR users are not directly interchangeable, they absolutely have different needs and wants.
I have both a DSLR and a mirrorless camera (actually several).
p.10 #9 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
The problem is that CaNikon systems are fairly mature with 200,000,000+ lenses and10's of millions dslrs in the wild, which presents a huge amount of inertia to mirrorless with waaaaay less ILC's and lenses sold to date.
A visual metaphor for the efforts to date of the plucky mirrorless underdog taking on Canikon would be fairly represented in this video imho
www.youtube.com/embed/CQUYGDY6skU
EDIT : epic failure on embedding the video, sigh ...
p.10 #11 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Jon Tainton wrote:
The problem is that CaNikon systems are fairly mature with 200,000,000+ lenses and10's of millions dslrs in the wild, which presents a huge amount of inertia to mirrorless with waaaaay less ILC's and lenses sold to date.
A visual metaphor for the efforts to date of the plucky mirrorless underdog taking on Canikon would be fairly represented in this video imho
www.youtube.com/embed/CQUYGDY6skU
EDIT : epic failure on embedding the video, sigh ...
p.10 #12 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
galenapass wrote:
I used to have a lot of cassette tapes. There were, I am sure, millions out in the wild.
Yep, that and 8 tracks and LP's. When there are no alternatives at the time you make do with what is current at that time. History shows that what was once current tech quickly becomes a dinosaur when new tech comes aboard.
p.10 #13 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Analogy may be applied, but new tech is not necessary always better. I could take LP's with some good Linn LP12 over digital sources, any day. Unfortunately, I have no significant collection of vinyl.
p.10 #14 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
I understand you meant MILC. I still completely disagree with the claim that every MILC camera sold is one DSLR not sold. I think there are many people would would buy a compact camera or P&S is MILC didn't exist or didn't meet their needs. Mirrorless users and DSLR users are not directly interchangeable, they absolutely have different needs and want
I can speak for myself only, but I moved from Nikon DSLR to Sony FF and APS-C mirrorless. The big and obese DSLRs don't appeal to me, and I find DSLR OVFs no good for manual focusing. I'm not looking back.
p.10 #15 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
telyt wrote:
I can speak only for myself. I held out replacing my Leica DMR as long as I did because the viewfinders and bulk of DSLR cameras made in the last 10 years do not appeal to me. The a7II isn't perfect but it's what I bought instead of a DSLR. I did not consider a P&S or compact camera.
Exactly, that isn't a lost sale for DSLR, it's a sale that never had a chance for DSLR companies.
p.10 #16 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
cvrle59 wrote:
Analogy may be applied, but new tech is not necessary always better. I could take LP's with some good Linn LP12 over digital sources, any day. Unfortunately, I have no significant collection of vinyl.
Absolutely. I'll take tubes over solid state amps any day of the week.
My stereo uses Western Electric 300B vacuum tubes. That's 1930's technology.
p.10 #17 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
Exactly, that isn't a lost sale for DSLR, it's a sale that never had a chance for DSLR companies.
well, he was shooting dslrs till the a7II (probably still shooting both?). it's not like he was going to get a p&s instead, he was hoping that somebody would make a dslr that was better for manual focus.
i shot dslrs till mirrorless came out and then i dumped them when i got a nex-7. mirrorless producers are now targeting dslr shooters more than phone/p&s upgraders with their marketing and model selection because they have better luckj targeting the dslr shooters.
p.10 #18 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
cvrle59 wrote:
Analogy may be applied, but new tech is not necessary always better. I could take LP's with some good Linn LP12 over digital sources, any day. Unfortunately, I have no significant collection of vinyl.
Exactly...just like market leader does not mean the best either... Just the most popular.
p.10 #19 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
sebboh wrote:
well, he was shooting dslrs till the a7II (probably still shooting both?). it's not like he was going to get a p&s instead, he was hoping that somebody would make a dslr that was better for manual focus.
i shot dslrs till mirrorless came out and then i dumped them when i got a nex-7. mirrorless producers are now targeting dslr shooters more than phone/p&s upgraders with their marketing and model selection because they have better luckj targeting the dslr shooters.
Every single photographer that I know who shoots with a mirrorless either came from a DSLR, still sometimes shoots a DSLR along with mirrorless or was looking for an advanced camera, moving up from a P&S.
I believe the majority of people buying mirrorless cameras today are in the same market as DSLR's. Right when you put the ability to change lenses, you cross out of the P&S market and enter the DSLR market.
p.10 #20 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
sebboh wrote:
well, he was shooting dslrs till the a7II (probably still shooting both?). it's not like he was going to get a p&s instead, he was hoping that somebody would make a dslr that was better for manual focus...
My a7II purchase wasn't a sale lost for the DSLR makers. They lost that sale a long time before the a7-series when they turned viewfinders into crap. The bloat was another nail in the coffin.
I still have the DMR but I haven't used it since I bought the a7II. If the DMR had died before the a7II (or something similar) had become available it's likely I'd have hung up the APO-Telyt rather than buy a CaNikon DSLR. I don't expect to see any of them making a DSLR camera that even remotely meets my needs again.
