p.11 #1 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
telyt wrote:
If the DMR had died before the a7II (or something similar) had become available it's likely I'd have hung up the APO-Telyt rather than buy a CaNikon DSLR.
no need to hang it up, i'd have happily put it to use for you.
p.11 #2 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
I recently sold all my Nikon gear and went/stayed with mirrorless. Ease of manual focusing with EVF and the ability to adapt lenses is what made me keep my A7II. I can't say I'll never go back to a DSLR again, but I just don't feel connected to them the way I do with my rangefinder or A7II. Now, it's all about those sexy lenses. The next and latest camera will just have to wait as I'm very happy with setup to bother about bigger megapickles or insane fps. Granted, I don't shoot sports or wildlife.
Wait, I still have my Canon AE-1... Somewhat tempted to shoot film again, but that's for another thread.
Sep 21, 2015 at 11:57 PM
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p.11 #3 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
In my view Canon and Nikon are in a bind. On one hand they have cameras that are great tools and a big set of excellent lenses that cover almost any type of photography that one would like to shoot. On the other hand, it is clear that some emerging technology will eventually and already has in some ways offered a clear advantage over their existing excellent cameras.
If you are Canikon, then short term profits (or at least diminished losses) are to be had by maintaining the status quo. Long term success and maybe even viability, however, is in beating others at innovating using the emerging technology. This latter strategy both goes against quarterly profits and is a steep uphill climb. A better viewfinder that works better in low light in needed. More accurate autofocus across a larger part of the frame is needed. A smaller form factor is needed and last but certainly not least you probably need a new lens mount and eventually a whole new line of lenses.
Given that hill to climb I can certainly see why Canikon is milking their current advantage, but it is a huge risk and unlikely to work in the long run, and I don't think they will be able to magically jump in and climb that hill and maintain their dominance.
They probably will maintain their dominance for 3 to 5 years, but after that I expect new players will take over. Whether that is Sony I think it is too early to know, but they have a very decent shot at being one of those players.
p.11 #5 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Steve Spencer wrote:
In my view Canon and Nikon are in a bind. On one hand they have cameras that are great tools and a big set of excellent lenses that cover almost any type of photography that one would like to shoot. On the other hand, it is clear that some emerging technology will eventually and already has in some ways offered a clear advantage over their existing excellent cameras.
If you are Canikon, then short term profits (or at least diminished losses) are to be had by maintaining the status quo. Long term success and maybe even viability, however, is in beating others at innovating using the emerging technology. This latter strategy both goes against quarterly profits and is a steep uphill climb. A better viewfinder that works better in low light in needed. More accurate autofocus across a larger part of the frame is needed. A smaller form factor is needed and last but certainly not least you probably need a new lens mount and eventually a whole new line of lenses.
Given that hill to climb I can certainly see why Canikon is milking their current advantage, but it is a huge risk and unlikely to work in the long run, and I don't think they will be able to magically jump in and climb that hill and maintain their dominance.
They probably will maintain their dominance for 3 to 5 years, but after that I expect new players will take over. Whether that is Sony I think it is too early to know, but they have a very decent shot at being one of those players....Show more →
Steve -- Great points, and I agree with most of what you say here. It is certainly true that there are holes in the mainstream DSLR line-ups for those seeking features like less automation, better manual focusing, higher DR, etc. Those folks have been under-served and continually seek solutions outside the confines of the Canikon hegemony.
I think you are omitting an important piece of data when drawing conclusions or predictions about the Canikon's future dominance (or survival). That would be a third alternative: That Canon and Nikon continue their innovation and bring significant improvements and leaps in technology, as they have been for 50 years. I know that many of these leaps are antithetical to Alt preferences (some Alt fans don't consider Canikon making any "leaps" pertaining to their interests), and in catering to that unsatisfied desire, Sony has been a genius, as Canikon pursue a different trajectory.
All I'm saying is that Canon and Nikon still have a lot of R&D steam behind them and won't roll over and die. Canon's recent announcement of super-MP sensors got a lot of notice.
I don't know what the future holds, but I suspect Canikon will still be major players in a decade (unless Sony buys Nikon!). Hopefully both the mainstream and Alt manufacturers will bring us better gear in the upcoming years. Personally, I'm pretty satisfied with the tools I have to work with today compared to a decade ago.
p.11 #6 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Steve Spencer wrote:
In my view Canon and Nikon are in a bind. On one hand they have cameras that are great tools and a big set of excellent lenses that cover almost any type of photography that one would like to shoot. On the other hand, it is clear that some emerging technology will eventually and already has in some ways offered a clear advantage over their existing excellent cameras.
If you are Canikon, then short term profits (or at least diminished losses) are to be had by maintaining the status quo. Long term success and maybe even viability, however, is in beating others at innovating using the emerging technology. This latter strategy both goes against quarterly profits and is a steep uphill climb. A better viewfinder that works better in low light in needed. More accurate autofocus across a larger part of the frame is needed. A smaller form factor is needed and last but certainly not least you probably need a new lens mount and eventually a whole new line of lenses.
Given that hill to climb I can certainly see why Canikon is milking their current advantage, but it is a huge risk and unlikely to work in the long run, and I don't think they will be able to magically jump in and climb that hill and maintain their dominance.
They probably will maintain their dominance for 3 to 5 years, but after that I expect new players will take over. Whether that is Sony I think it is too early to know, but they have a very decent shot at being one of those players....Show more →
As much as I agree with you, I find it hard to accept that they have nothing in the wings. They have the financial and technological means—have they really buried their heads in the sand?
p.11 #7 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
3-5 years seems like a long time but this market is not very sensitive or responsive. Mirrorless has been around longer than that but it doesnt seem to gain enough traction to overturn the big boys. Forum response is one thing but it's a microcosm, dont extrapolate it to the entire population.
p.11 #8 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
I think that was the whole point of my OP. Those graphs a stats are from a company that tracks consumer spending here in the US - it has nothing to do with extrapolation from FM.
p.11 #10 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Spyro P. wrote:
3-5 years seems like a long time but this market is not very sensitive or responsive. Mirrorless has been around longer than that but it doesnt seem to gain enough traction to overturn the big boys. Forum response is one thing but it's a microcosm, dont extrapolate it to the entire population.
Mirrorless is just gaining traction due to false starts by all of the players—Olympus thought mirrorless could cultivate buyers from the P&S; Sony believed that a small size would do it; Pentax thought that an avant-garde design would have them lining up like the release of an new iPhone.
If Canon and Nikon do nothing, 3-5 years could see their marketshare erode with significance.
p.11 #11 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Only Sony is geared and poised to frog-leap Canon and Nikon. That is because only Sony has developed a FF MILC - to the point when it's actually ready to take on the DSLR. And only Sony has the resources (aside from Canon) to put more money into R&D and towards developing more new lenses - both, on its own and in collaboration with Zeiss. Neither Fujifilm or Olympus has the ability or resources to do what Sony is doing. Sony is destined to emerge as the new market leader in a few years ... unless Canon can pull a rabbit out of its hat.
Steve Spencer wrote:
They probably will maintain their dominance for 3 to 5 years, but after that I expect new players will take over. Whether that is Sony I think it is too early to know, but they have a very decent shot at being one of those players.
p.11 #12 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
bobbytan wrote:
Only Sony is geared and poised to frog-leap Canon and Nikon. That is because only Sony has developed a FF MILC - to the point when it's actually ready to take on the DSLR. And only Sony has the resources (aside from Canon) to put more money into R&D and towards developing more new lenses - both, on its own and in collaboration with Zeiss. Neither Fujifilm or Olympus has the ability or resources to do what Sony is doing. Sony is destined to emerge as the new market leader in a few years ... unless Canon can pull a rabbit out of its hat. ...Show more →
I'd have to strongly disagree there.
1. FF is not some magic wand, all four of the major mirrorless players are providing cameras more capable than comparable DSLR's in at least some regards. The E-M1, X-T1 and GH4 all outperform comparably priced DSLR's in pretty much every regard except tracking AF, and aren't that far behind in tracking AF today.
2. Sony is lagging in lens development, not leading. Panasonic and Olympus are well ahead of the other players in terms of lens development, with each offering more extensive systems than any of the APS-C options (and of course, they're cross-compatible). Sony's lineup is big enough now, but very patchy. Fuji's smaller lineup hits more needs due to the focused approach. Sony also is completely missing in options over 200mm-e reach, which is the main area of development right now for the other 3
Release rates are similar across the board, Fuji's introduced 5 lenses this year, Sony 4 (in FE/E mount, I'm not counting A mount refreshes), and Panasonic & Olympus 3 each. In terms of investment, Oly and Sony lead (with mostly high-end lenses) while Panasonic lags (all 2015 lenses have been low-end enthusiast or consumer)
p.11 #13 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
mawz wrote:
In terms of investment, Oly and Sony lead (with mostly high-end lenses) while Panasonic lags (all 2015 lenses have been low-end enthusiast or consumer)
I would merely point out that Panasonic really doesn't lag anything if you believe their lenses already outperform their Sony and Olympus counterparts. They also had them out first. Sony and Olympus could never even dream of bringing a f/1.2 lens to market in the current mirrorless climate, they simply don't have the resources. Nocticron is a gem that only a company that truly understands photography could produce.
Panasonic, FWIW, is producing better lenses than anyone in the world right now.
p.11 #14 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
I was thinking more of the pro photography market where FF still reigns. And yes, Olympus currently has a better line of lenses than Sony ... but it won't be too long before we see a slew of pro lenses from Sony-Zeiss - they would have to do that if they wish to supplant Canikon as the market leader ... and I do believe this is their goal and they are moving in that direction.
mawz wrote:
I'd have to strongly disagree there.
1. FF is not some magic wand, all four of the major mirrorless players are providing cameras more capable than comparable DSLR's in at least some regards. The E-M1, X-T1 and GH4 all outperform comparably priced DSLR's in pretty much every regard except tracking AF, and aren't that far behind in tracking AF today.
2. Sony is lagging in lens development, not leading. Panasonic and Olympus are well ahead of the other players in terms of lens development, with each offering more extensive systems than any of the APS-C options (and of course, they're cross-compatible). Sony's lineup is big enough now, but very patchy. Fuji's smaller lineup hits more needs due to the focused approach. Sony also is completely missing in options over 200mm-e reach, which is the main area of development right now for the other 3
Release rates are similar across the board, Fuji's introduced 5 lenses this year, Sony 4 (in FE/E mount, I'm not counting A mount refreshes), and Panasonic & Olympus 3 each. In terms of investment, Oly and Sony lead (with mostly high-end lenses) while Panasonic lags (all 2015 lenses have been low-end enthusiast or consumer)...Show more →
p.11 #15 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
The Panasonic-Leica lenses are pretty good ... but I wouldn't go so far as to say that "Panasonic is producing better lenses than anyone in the world right now". The PRO series line of lenses from Olympus are darn good and even some of the non-pro lenses like the 75/1.8 is as good as the Nocticron.
taran wrote:
I would merely point out that Panasonic really doesn't lag anything if you believe their lenses already outperform their Sony and Olympus counterparts. They also had them out first. Sony and Olympus could never even dream of bringing a f/1.2 lens to market in the current mirrorless climate, they simply don't have the resources. Nocticron is a gem that only a company that truly understands photography could produce.
Panasonic, FWIW, is producing better lenses than anyone in the world right now.
p.11 #16 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
bobbytan wrote:
I was thinking more of the pro photography market where FF still reigns. And yes, Olympus currently has a better line of lenses than Sony ... but it won't be too long before we see a slew of pro lenses from Sony-Zeiss - they would have to do that if they wish to supplant Canikon as the market leader ... and I do believe this is their goal and they are moving in that direction.
I thought everyone was discussing things beyond the pro market to include all compares users. Certainly if we are taking about sales to professionals, Nikon and Canon are way ahead, especially in terms of professional support programs.
p.11 #17 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
taran wrote:
I would merely point out that Panasonic really doesn't lag anything if you believe their lenses already outperform their Sony and Olympus counterparts. They also had them out first. Sony and Olympus could never even dream of bringing a f/1.2 lens to market in the current mirrorless climate, they simply don't have the resources. Nocticron is a gem that only a company that truly understands photography could produce.
Panasonic, FWIW, is producing better lenses than anyone in the world right now.
I'm speaking to the rate of current introductions specifically. Panasonic has only introduced consumer lenses this year.
Additionally, with 2 exceptions (the 25/1.4 and the 42.5/1.2) their entire lens lineup generally lags Olympus in perceived quality. Olympus, with their Pro line and the 12, 60 & 75 primes pretty much is the de facto lens quality leader in m43. Not that there's anything wrong with the Panasonic lenses, they're generally quite good and 3 are clearly outstanding (the 25, 42.5/1.2 and 35-100/2.8)
Olympus certainly could do a world-class f1.2 lens. Fuji certainly has with a fraction of the resources or design experience of Olympus (Panasonic also has a mere fraction of Olympus's design experience).
p.11 #18 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
bobbytan wrote:
I was thinking more of the pro photography market where FF still reigns. And yes, Olympus currently has a better line of lenses than Sony ... but it won't be too long before we see a slew of pro lenses from Sony-Zeiss - they would have to do that if they wish to supplant Canikon as the market leader ... and I do believe this is their goal and they are moving in that direction.
Sony has shown no capability or intent to introduce more than half a dozen lenses per year, as well as a clear belief that they currently have a pro lens line in the current ZA and G lenses.
p.11 #19 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
I might add that Olympus have revealed in one of the interviews that they will be targeting serious photographers and pros, and will focus on making fast lenses i.e. presumably f1.2 or faster.
mawz wrote:
I'm speaking to the rate of current introductions specifically. Panasonic has only introduced consumer lenses this year.
Additionally, with 2 exceptions (the 25/1.4 and the 42.5/1.2) their entire lens lineup generally lags Olympus in perceived quality. Olympus, with their Pro line and the 12, 60 & 75 primes pretty much is the de facto lens quality leader in m43. Not that there's anything wrong with the Panasonic lenses, they're generally quite good and 3 are clearly outstanding (the 25, 42.5/1.2 and 35-100/2.8)
Olympus certainly could do a world-class f1.2 lens. Fuji certainly has with a fraction of the resources or design experience of Olympus (Panasonic also has a mere fraction of Olympus's design experience). ...Show more →
p.11 #20 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
bobbytan wrote:
I might add that Olympus have revealed in one of the interviews that they will be targeting serious photographers and pros, and will focus on making fast lenses i.e. presumably f1.2 or faster.
I don't spend hard-earned money on promises. Show me the glass.
