p.1 #1 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
...in a more meaningful way.....IMO.
Recently we had a thread posted about the demise of the 4/3 camera and that morphed into discussing sales of m4/3, and mirrorless cameras in general. I thought it might be better to start a new post to discuss recent sales trends etc. I think it is a timely topic because the last 12 months have really been interesting in the camera market. Below are 4 graphs (apologies for the poor resolution).
Graph #1
This shows an increase on mirrorless sales while at the same time DSLRs continue to decline. I believe that CaNikon have to be looking at this with great concern.
"According to The NPD Group, overall mirrorless camera revenue has grown 16.5% over the past 12 months, with DSLR sales declining approximately 15% over the same period. During this time, Sony has experienced a robust 66% boost in their company's mirrorless camera sales, strengthening their dominant position as the #1 overall mirrorless brand, a position they have held for 4 consecutive years."
Graph #2
Sony sales are up substantially. This graph is represented in terms of % so one must be cautious about over interpreting it - this could be said for all of these graphs. A sale of 2 cameras vs 1 is 100% growth, but in terms of real numbers it is still very small. Yet, we all have seen the interest Sony mirrorless has evoked in our small FM online community. I have noticed quite a few Canon shooters switching to Sony because of both the sensor DR and the resolution (which Canon has now answered, at least in terms of resolution) and also because of form factor. Sony now has its own forum!
Graph # 3
As is typical, it is the younger crowd that accepts change faster. This graph shows the age of first time mirrorless buyers.
"First time buyers in today's ILC market will play an integral part in future growth of the segment, especially considering the increasingly younger customers that are buying into new systems," said Ed Lee, group director of the Consumer and Professional Imaging group at InfoTrends."
Graph #4
This graph shows the use for mirrorless.
"For now, most mirrorless cameras are not purchased for use in professional environments, but that may quickly change as we move forward."
"Looking at trade body CIPA's most recent shipment data to the Americas (CIPA's grouping that also includes South America and Canada), tells a similar story. Shipments of DSLRs in the twelve months to April 2015 fell 19% by volume and 9% by value, compared to the previous year, while mirrorless grew 36% by volume and 50% by value, over the same period.
This leaves shipments of mirrorless cameras making up 16% of ILC shipments by volume [in the US]: still some way behind the 26% figure they represent in the rest of the world over the same period. This suggests there's still room for growth, unlike Europe, where volumes have contracted slightly (amidst sharply dropping DSLR figures)."
p.1 #2 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Canon I think has an easier path here. As maligned as the EOS-M system is, it already has a small but interesting set of lenses which are good quality and compact. Even though I am currently an A6000 user, sony doesn't have anything which matches the size to performance ratio of my previous EOS-M + 22mm f2 combo. The 11-22 is also a very desirable lens, again in a compact package.
The moment Canon releases a "serious" EOS-M body and a couple more lenses they will be very much in the game. And they have the advantage of a huge and loyal user base. Provide them a good body with a good adapter to mount Canon DSLR lenses, and a number of those will start picking up EOS-M's as secondary bodies to complement their DSLRs.
Nikon really has to start from scratch here because Nikon 1 doesn't really count. They could obviously make use of the knowledge they acquired developing that system, but APS-C / FF are fairly different beasts compared to a 1" sensor.
p.1 #3 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
I have to admit I made fun of the EOS-M when it first came out. But after trying one...it was a decent little camera, with the standard mirrorless issues (chief of which was poor AF). But I think you are correct, Canon do have a small step in the "right" direction. That may help them.
p.1 #4 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Thanks for your efforts with this post.
Canon and Nikon, both have fought hard to not legitimize the mirrorless market. Both have gone to great length to avoid plagiarizing their existing market.
"In the very near future, I think that Canon will come out with a mirrorless camera that you would really like." The quote comes from the interview with Canon by Imaging Resource.
I guess Canon is now convinced that the DSLR market decline is not just an anomaly but an ongoing trend.
p.1 #5 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
I have heard that Canon has developed a one million ISO (or some ridiculously high ISO) sensor ... so we can some expect some ground-breaking news in the photography market in the not too distant future! Also expect some announcement soon about the organic sensor jointly developed by Fujifilm, Panasonic and Toshiba. Interesting times ahead! I am thinking the current line of mirrorless cameras will be obsolete in about a couple of years!
p.1 #6 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Or not? Other than a few peaks, mirrorless sales have remained relatively stagnant since 2012. Sure, DSLR sales have slouched, but they still remain a significant majority of units sold.
You can almost bet Canon and Nikon are prepared to jump in when necessary, but the current market just doesn't dictate it yet.
p.1 #8 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
I suspect we'll see convergence before long and there won't really be any differentation between mirrorless and dSLR. You can already see an early prototype of that with the A7RII and its on sensor PDAF/CDAF with hacked adapters driving decent focus performance on Nikon/Canon glass.
Sony is kind of doing the product development and market research for Nikon and Canon.
At the right time, why couldn't Nikon just integrate an EVF instead of an OVF into the current body design and instantly have a mirrorless camera with all the benefits of the Nikon system? I'd probably buy that camera if it had a short flange mount for adapted glass (doubt they'd do that) and more robust video and MF aids implementation.
Maybe Sony will do it first and bring out an A9 that looks more like the A99 with pro build and features and state of the art on sensor PDAF for e (and A?) mount lenses.
I'd like to see Nikon and Canon take the lead and obsolete their own products, but that almost certainly doesn't make financial sense at this point. They probably should start investing towards that on the backend R&D side if they haven't already for their FF/APS-C lines but commercialization needs much more Sony success and technology maturation.
Sep 18, 2015 at 01:09 PM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: On
p.1 #9 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
AvianScott wrote:
Or not? Other than a few peaks, mirrorless sales have remained relatively stagnant since 2012. Sure, DSLR sales have slouched, but they still remain a significant majority of units sold.
You can almost bet Canon and Nikon are prepared to jump in when necessary, but the current market just doesn't dictate it yet.
The numbers of mirrorless cameras sold has held steady, but the price per unit has gone up, so that equals increased sales in money taken in. DSLR have had a significant reduction in the number of units sold and held pretty steady in price per unit which results in a reduction in money taken in.
These facts are consistent with your graph. They also clearly show that either in unit sales or in revenues generated mirrorless is gaining in market share. Canon and Nikon may ignore these facts interpreting your graph like you do, but IMO, that is a serious mistake.
p.1 #10 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Steve Spencer wrote:
The numbers of mirrorless cameras sold has held steady, but the price per unit has gone up, so that equals increased sales in money taken in. DSLR have had a significant reduction in the number of units sold and held pretty steady in price per unit which results in a reduction in money taken in.
These facts are consistent with your graph. They also clearly show that either in unit sales or in revenues generated mirrorless is gaining in market share. Canon and Nikon may ignore these facts interpreting your graph like you do, but IMO, that is a serious mistake....Show more →
The more FE lenses Sony can introduce, the more serious CaNikon's mistake will be. This is also a reason for Sony to iterate the A7 cameras so quickly. Sony needs to get the user interface right. All this must happen aheadvofcany major CaNikon mirrorless launch. I think that particularly Nikon will suffer from being late to the party.
p.1 #13 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Oh, OK. Thanks, Steve.
Then we're talking decades earlier. That supports my thought that the age bias for first-time ILC buyers isn't related to acceptance of change (and adoption of innovation); rather, I think those things are more related to personal preference, which is independent of age. Correlation vs. causation is always a tough nut to crack.
p.1 #14 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Atlasman2 wrote:
Thanks for your efforts with this post.
Canon and Nikon, both have fought hard to not legitimize the mirrorless market. Both have gone to great length to avoid plagiarizing their existing market.
"In the very near future, I think that Canon will come out with a mirrorless camera that you would really like." The quote comes from the interview with Canon by Imaging Resource.
I guess Canon is now convinced that the DSLR market decline is not just an anomaly but an ongoing trend.
If by, "Canon and Nikon, both have fought hard to not legitimize the mirrorless market." , you mean "fought not one battle in the mirrorless market, and continue to thrive, . . .", then, yes, I agree!
p.1 #15 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
By "thrive" if you mean "still in business despite declining sales...", then yes I agree!
**Despite firm sales in Japan, interchangeable-lens digital cameras continued to face severe conditions in other regions while sales volume for digital compact cameras decreased in most regions compared with the same period of the previous year," Canon said in a statement.**
p.1 #16 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
AvianScott wrote:
Or not? Other than a few peaks, mirrorless sales have remained relatively stagnant since 2012. Sure, DSLR sales have slouched, but they still remain a significant majority of units sold.
You can almost bet Canon and Nikon are prepared to jump in when necessary, but the current market just doesn't dictate it yet.
I wonder when Blockbuster thought, "OK, it's time to increase our online presence"? The point is that one does not wait, or at least shouldn't, until there is a crisis to start adapting to change. The consumer is fickle.
p.1 #17 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
AvianScott wrote:
You can almost bet Canon and Nikon are prepared to jump in when necessary, but the current market just doesn't dictate it yet.
I hope Canon and Nikon don't see things this way. You can't just jump in when necessary unless you've done a tremendous amount of work behind the scenes for years. I'm sure Nikon and Canon have learned a few things with their mirrorless experiments but not enough to compete unless they've done a lot more behind closed doors. What Sony in particular is doing inside of the relatively small space they have to work with shouldn't be underestimated.
p.1 #18 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
galenapass wrote:
I wonder when Blockbuster thought, "OK, it's time to increase our online presence"? The point is that one does not wait, or at least shouldn't, until there is a crisis to start adapting to change. The consumer is fickle.
Yep, Blockbuster thought about it when Netflix and Redbox started taking all of their money and they hadn't laid the groundwork needed to recover.
p.1 #19 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
I still don't understand why the existence or non-existence of a mirror in a camera is supposed to be that important apart from a little bit of size and weight. When I look at the latest Nikon 300 mm lens it proves that substantial smaller lenses are also possible with the current F-mount.
I still prefer the bigger and heavier camera's of Nikon and Canon above those tiny cameras because of the stability of these cameras in my hands.
p.1 #20 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
wiseguy010 wrote:
I still don't understand why the existence or non-existence of a mirror in a camera is supposed to be that important apart from a little bit of size and weight. When I look at the latest Nikon 300 mm lens it proves that substantial smaller lenses are also possible with the current F-mount.
I still prefer the bigger and heavier camera's of Nikon and Canon above those tiny cameras because of the stability of these cameras in my hands.
Mirrorless can be tiny but doesn't have to be and in fact the recent trend seems to be larger bodies with room to add really impressive features.
