I don't necessarily subscribe to Anthony's point of view, to which Tentacle replied, in part:
"How can a 5D drop enough in price to compete with a D200? A full frame sensor costs 10 to 20 times as much as a comparable APS-C sized counterpart, so it is quite a stretch to expect a 5D to be going for D200 money anytime soon. Did I miss something important regarding full frame sensor production cost reductions?"
For a moment let's accept your figure of "10 to 20 times as much as a comparable APS-C" sensor. With that it mind, there are several factors that could permit a full frame camera to be sold at a lower price point:
1. While the price may be 10 to 20 times that of an APS-C sensor, we have seen the prices of APS-C camera bodies come down in list price, sales price and, to an even greater extent, as measured against inflation. So, either the cost of APS-C sensors has come down, or other parts/manufacturing costs have dropped even more.
2. If the former, then your "10 to 20 times" cost factor could be correct, but measured against a lower base price for current APS-C sensors. If APS-C sensors have become less expensive - and I think it is certain that they have - then the price of a larger sensor that costs 10 to 20 times as much will also be less than it was when the 5D was introduced.
3. If the latter, then the other parts/manufacturing cost reductions will also affect the 5D. The sensor is only one component of the camera.
I don't know how much cheaper a 12MP full frame Canon camera body can be, but I'm confident it can be sold at a lower price than even the current discounted prices. Given statements from Canon representatives about pushing FF into lower levels of their line-up, I expect that Canon expects this to happen. At lower prices it becomes more competitive with other cameras.
Most buyers assign some significant value to a full frame sensor over an APS-C sensor. Some have assigned it nearly $2000 dollars of value - that is why they purchased the 5D at list price when it first came out. Quite a few assign it $1100-$1200 dollars, which they demonstrate by purchasing it now under the rebate. My hunch is that once it or a similar model goes below $2000 we'll see a lot of buyers who might have purchased a 30D-type camera deciding that a cost differential measured in hundreds of dollars makes the full frame camera seem like a great value.
A camera does not necessarily have to sell at the same price as a competing camera, though it has to offer compelling value in order to sell at a somewhat higher price. Clearly, full frame already offers that value for some buyers - and even more will see it that way if the price differential decreases.
It will be even more so if a competitor (Nikon?) introduces a full frame product.
But then again, I could be all wrong... :-)
(Edited to remove some words that might have sounded a bit snide. Sorry.)
Edited by danmitchell on Feb 17, 2007 at 06:20 PM GMT
Jeez, that would be quite a chunk of hardware now, wouldn't it?
And that is what's wrong with this list. Way too much heavy stuff. Too much tele stuff. Could it be done with DO? Probably, but it doesn't seem that DO is good enough. It's not likely Canon has come up with a way to make a lot of light weight lenses.
The spec'd camera with five or six lenses, including one or two IS lenses, would be more believable.
"Who thinks that the new body this year(07) will include video, 1920x1080hd even... All the local newspapers for sports are showing more and more video on there web sites... It will happen soon....."
New 1D MkIII
10.1 Mpx
1.3x (same as today)
Dual Digic III
45 focus points
10 fps
anti dust system
No price yet. Maybe only one camera at PMA?
Since he was right with the 30D, this is a credible rumor
Ohh...it has anti dust. Well there's a compelling reason to trade up from a 1D Mark II.
[Sarcasm chip enabled]
The comments re. the possible video capability of the camera would set the camera apart from other alternatives, but wouldn't appeal to me. Maybe for professional journos?
New 1D MkIII
10.1 Mpx
1.3x (same as today)
Dual Digic III
45 focus points
10 fps
anti dust system
No price yet. Maybe only one camera at PMA?
Since he was right with the 30D, this is a credible rumor
Totally underwhelming! If 25% more pixels, 25% faster, and a dust shaker is the best Canon can do, don't bother to wake me.
Now if Canon was adding 50% the pixels to 12M & going full frame with a clean 3200 or 6400 iso, that would be exciting. If I were shooting a 1DII or IIN I wouldn't run out and spend the money, unless I needed the second body.
calvillo wrote:
Totally underwhelming! If 25% more pixels, 25% faster, and a dust shaker is the best Canon can do, don't bother to wake me.
Now if Canon was adding 50% the pixels to 12M & going full frame with a clean 3200 or 6400 iso, that would be exciting. If I were shooting a 1DII or IIN I wouldn't run out and spend the money, unless I needed the second body.
Well, I still shoot with a 1D, so I might be interested. Remember, not everyone already has a Mark II or N. Even so, MANY pro sports photogs upgraded from the Mark II to the N and that was barely an upgrade at all. This is more substantial than people here are making it seem.
If there was anywhere CLOSE to a full 35mm camera that could do 2-4 minute video clips at hd+ resolutions, it would be loved by indie filmers. The ability to use high quality "L" lenses at various focal lengths with the nice, shallow DOF would instantly increase the perceived production value...
That said, I don't think you'll see it any time soon.
And, if the 1d MKIII really only has a 10mp sensor, you would have to think that it is some new sensor technology. 2mp upgrade in a pro level camera would be pretty lackluster unless it had incredible iso performance and FPS.
If this is all Canon has to debut at PMA 2007 it will be a huge disappointment for most Canon aficionados. It would mean Canon hasn't made any real waves since the 5D was announced in August 2005. In the mean time Nikon has gradually and systematically begun to chip away at Canon's leadership position in the dSLR market.
If Nikon now announces a new full-frame camera at PMA, it will be official...Canon is treading water and Nikon is quickly swimming by.
rocketpop wrote:
If there was anywhere CLOSE to a full 35mm camera that could do 2-4 minute video clips at hd+ resolutions, it would be loved by indie filmers. The ability to use high quality "L" lenses at various focal lengths with the nice, shallow DOF would instantly increase the perceived production value...
That said, I don't think you'll see it any time soon.
And, if the 1d MKIII really only has a 10mp sensor, you would have to think that it is some new sensor technology. 2mp upgrade in a pro level camera would be pretty lackluster unless it had incredible iso performance and FPS....Show more →
Unless they are pulling another 30D or Unless they can't keep the FPS up on anything higher...seems like FPS is something that is loved for that camera.
Remember, not everyone already has a Mark II or N. Even so, MANY pro sports photogs upgraded from the Mark II to the N and that was barely an upgrade at all.
Professional sports photographers who shoot hundreds of thousands of frames a year will always buy it, because they need to get new gear every year. Other professionals who don't shoot as many shots won't need to upgrade, and unless the new camera offers a substantive improvement, they won't buy the new body.
I am a wedding photographer, and I use a 1 series because of it's waterproofing. My second body is a 5D. If the new 1D doesn't offer full frame or at least 12 MP why would I even consider an upgrade? I have years left of life in my 1DII - I need a really compelling reason (or excuse) to upgrade. Seems like I will be waiting for the 1DsIII.
Yep, he's right. Probably didn't care much about violating his NDA at this point of time. I bet that fella must be residing in China, HK or Taiwan and taking advantage of the long weekend break of the Chinese New Year and decided to let go some info. Most businesses will come back to normal only from next Wednesday (Feb 21) onward. But he stopped short of naming other revolutionary features the new camera has.
That's right, I did ... initially. 12.8MP and full-frame (my prediction). But a few weeks later, I revised that to 10MP via a hint in one of my postings - guess no one notice that one.
in almost 300 pages filled with complex math equations, photon wells, global time shift differentials, other planets, and bunnies both domestic and alien, some little things are bound to slip by...
On the bright side, Only 4-6 more days to see if anything real drops from Canon.
lordcarl wrote:
That's right, I did ... initially. 12.8MP and full-frame (my prediction). But a few weeks later, I revised that to 10MP via a hint in one of my postings - guess no one notice that one.
if canon can provide a corner to corner sharp 14mmL or even a tad wider i would be in heaven, its no small order i know, but leica sure did it with there 15mm
