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Archive 2006 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread

  
 
tom2517
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p.54 #1 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


RDKirk wrote:
The senior Canon-Europe exec has said that all but the cheapest Canon DSLRs will have 24x36mm sensors in the near future, but that a totally "full-frame" lineup was much farther away.

I take this to mean that APS-C will remain in the Canon lineup as far into the future as Canon has made any actual plans. "All but the cheapest", IMO could well involve more than one simultaneously produced Rebel model, but certainly does not include a "professional-grade" camera.

I would agree that the least expensive 24x36mm body is likely to be around $2500 for at least two more years, possibly four,
...Show more


I agree. I have translated an interview with Canon Japan executives a while ago, and they are committed to the APS-C format. They will continue to make both format as long as there are demands. And that they will develop more EF-S lens.



Aug 30, 2006 at 09:21 AM
joebee
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p.54 #2 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


bad_doggie wrote:
its almost always wrong to say something *must* be engineered only in one way. e.g. i could imagine increased dynamic range being done in software, much the same way as folks do it now (multiple exposures, over or under exposed by a few f-stops, blended in software), which could be done by having more pixels, sampled at different iso's. high iso performance requires increasing signal-to-noise, which can also be done by reducing noise, not just increasing signal.

i don't have a good picture of where "digic iii" fits in here. this doesn't refer to the sensor technology, right? all the
...Show more
The DIGIC II does all most all functions in the Camera. The cost to design the chip is very high while production costs are low enough to include in $200/cameras. They may be using lower speed DIGIC II chips in the compacts. Those that fail for use in 400D/30D/20D/5D/1D's may be fine for the compacts. The DIGIC II link talks about signal processing as a task for the chip. Moving from 12 bit to 14 bit or higher would require a chip with wider registers/paths/etc. I believe the analog to digital conversion occurs on the sensor chip.

I would agree there are different ways to design for higher ISO's and dynamic range. The improvements in signal to noise ratios have been slow and incremental since the 10D was introduced. Canon could introduce a sensor with a CMOS version of Fuji's SuperCCD SR. Canon may introduce a major advance in S/N.

From all the talk of DIGIC III producing a raw file with 14 bit data converted to 16 bit with software. I would guess the DIGIC III was be designed to process 16 bit data when Canon can produce a sensor that can provide 16 bit data. I could see a 24MP camera with a 14 bit sensor and a 12MP or smaller camera with a 16 bit sensor




Aug 30, 2006 at 10:23 AM
The Image
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p.54 #3 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


new canon source says 1dsmkIII is done and just waiting for production, possible release date in nov or dec or early 07 http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/Canon_1DS_MkIII.html


Aug 30, 2006 at 10:28 AM
DaveMart
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p.54 #4 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


5D Successor to be: 'Better than you can imagine'
"I did know that they were working on the 85 f/1.2L and 50 f/1.2L that I told you earlier. Canon R&D is working on new DSLRs. We'll see 3D, successor of 5D and DRebel. I have no information about the 40D. They're also working on a series of non L wide angle lenses such as 24, 28, and 35. There're no plan, or I don't know, to replace 24L and 35L. R&D has many different groups working on different project. I only know one. So my information is only 70% accurate. Don't buy anything now especially the 30D and 5D. Dell is offering 25% off for the 5D. You should now why. The 5D successor is better than you can imagine. All DSLRs will have a big jump in performance. The pushed out the 30D just to buy time and fill the gap."
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1029&message=19809906
After Photokina, it seems though
Don't want to mess up the 400D by looking like they are selling old technology - gotta get the Christmas business first.
Regards,
DaveMart



Aug 30, 2006 at 10:44 AM
dcmiller
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p.54 #5 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


tom mcconville wrote:
new canon source says 1dsmkIII is done and just waiting for production, possible release date in nov or dec or early 07 http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/Canon_1DS_MkIII.html


I like this rumor. It explains the mass confusion on when the camera will be released. What is Canon's fiscal year? They may be having a good year and wanted to push the profit forward. More likely, there are too many 1DsII still in the channel. I see B&H is still selling the original 1Ds.
By "pushing production" they mean final assembly. That would also allow Canon to turn out more 400 around the launch date. They could then look at initial demand at launch of the 400 and decide when to change part of their assembly capacity over to the 1DsIII.
Perhaps not true, but a rumor I can live with.



Aug 30, 2006 at 11:05 AM
stevesanacore
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p.54 #6 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread



I have been waiting for the 1DsMk2 replacement since before the 5D came out. I can't imagine they are selling any Mk2's over the past year when anyone with half a brain knows it is very long in the tooth and way behind in many features. I am holding off moving to the medium formats waiting and waiting for the new Canon, but I can't wait too much longer. I am sure I am not the only one in this position.



Aug 30, 2006 at 11:35 AM
cdTzabcan
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p.54 #7 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


I wonder if Fred is drafting an invoice to send to Canon for providing 136 pages of in-depth, focus group-style feedback from some of their most "enthusiastic" customers...

Some corporations have to pay big money for this much insight into their customer base...



Aug 30, 2006 at 11:43 AM
The Image
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p.54 #8 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


stevesanacore wrote:
I have been waiting for the 1DsMk2 replacement since before the 5D came out. I can't imagine they are selling any Mk2's over the past year when anyone with half a brain knows it is very long in the tooth and way behind in many features. I am holding off moving to the medium formats waiting and waiting for the new Canon, but I can't wait too much longer. I am sure I am not the only one in this position.

im in the same boat



Aug 30, 2006 at 12:32 PM
jwil
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p.54 #9 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


cdTzabcan wrote:
I wonder if Fred is drafting an invoice to send to Canon for providing 136 pages of in-depth, focus group-style feedback from some of their most "enthusiastic" customers...

Some corporations have to pay big money for this much insight into their customer base...



I'm quite sure Canon already read this.



Aug 30, 2006 at 12:40 PM
timbop
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p.54 #10 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


DaveMart wrote:
5D Successor to be: 'Better than you can imagine'
"I did know that they were working on the 85 f/1.2L and 50 f/1.2L that I told you earlier. Canon R&D is working on new DSLRs. We'll see 3D, successor of 5D and DRebel. I have no information about the 40D. They're also working on a series of non L wide angle lenses such as 24, 28, and 35. There're no plan, or I don't know, to replace 24L and 35L. R&D has many different groups working on different project. I only know one. So my information is only 70% accurate. Don't
...Show more


Remember, if it sounds too good to be true......

Canon R&D is excellent, but maybe we are all hoping for a little too much and rumors like that one play on our "hopes". Personally there is no way I'm going to be able to afford any of these new uber-cameras, I am just hoping that used 1Dm2's come down to my price range.



Aug 30, 2006 at 12:56 PM
OceanView
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p.54 #11 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


stevesanacore wrote:
I have been waiting for the 1DsMk2 replacement since before the 5D came out. I can't imagine they are selling any Mk2's over the past year when anyone with half a brain knows it is very long in the tooth and way behind in many features. I am holding off moving to the medium formats waiting and waiting for the new Canon, but I can't wait too much longer. I am sure I am not the only one in this position.


If you can't wait, buy a used 5D for the interim.
It will do a fine job until the new 1D comes out.
Once the new camera arrives, you can sell the 5D and get the new 1D and you should be fine.

That's what I would do.



Aug 30, 2006 at 01:32 PM
dcmiller
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p.54 #12 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


I pity the poor junior marketing person at Canon that reads our rambling. After a year of two they are off to the monastery or insane asylum. "Where's Bob?" "Well... he was assigned to read the Canon forums" "Oh, I'm so sorry. Are you sending flowers?"




Aug 30, 2006 at 01:34 PM
canong3
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p.54 #13 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


timbop wrote:
Remember, if it sounds too good to be true......

Canon R&D is excellent, but maybe we are all hoping for a little too much and rumors like that one play on our "hopes". Personally there is no way I'm going to be able to afford any of these new uber-cameras, I am just hoping that used 1Dm2's come down to my price range.

I think Canon R&D is yeeeeeeears ahead. Canon marketing is like 3 years ahead......
It's interesting whether the guy is talking about new 5D replacement or new camera. If new camera then why get excited? It is different price tag for sure.
"There can be only one LEGEND..... and I hope you don't think it's 50/1.2L.....
Search the thread.... Again the new lenses is what I'm interested in this time.



Aug 30, 2006 at 03:17 PM
Flappie
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p.54 #14 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


I predicted the arrival of the EFs 17-55 mm /2.8 before the announcement . My reasoning was quite simple : the 5D created some abiguity on Canon plans, and this lens would show Canons commitment to APS

The XXD series will be APS for the coming years . Anything else would be suicide. The 5D shows that FF is not valued by everyone, and a FF XXD would always be much much more expensive than the Nikon bodies in the same class (and the lenses even more). There clearly is a very profitable $/€ 1000-1250 EUR market, and a FF does not fit in this price range

F



Aug 30, 2006 at 04:57 PM
chaosman
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p.54 #15 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


canong3 wrote:
I think Canon R&D is yeeeeeeears ahead. Canon marketing is like 3 years ahead......


I think you are talking about Canon R&D and not Marketing ...

Kai



Aug 30, 2006 at 05:00 PM
Philippe Arnez
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p.54 #16 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


dcmiller wrote:
I pity the poor junior marketing person at Canon that reads our rambling. After a year of two they are off to the monastery or insane asylum. "Where's Bob?" "Well... he was assigned to read the Canon forums" "Oh, I'm so sorry. Are you sending flowers?"



Well, I would like that job! Pretty much what I'm doing right now, only I would be earning money for it...
hm, now that I think of it, where do I sign?




Aug 30, 2006 at 05:45 PM
EA6B
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p.54 #17 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


Wasn't the 35 .85L due out this year?


Aug 30, 2006 at 05:48 PM
kleinssz69
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p.54 #18 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


It seems as if some guys/gals think that canon releases camera / lenses in response to whatever the competetors are releasing. Think about it, how long does it take for a company to put a new product into production?

I just chuckle when I read some of the post. Don' you think that work on the 400D and whatever else canon will release has begun at a minumum, a year ago? How can the 400D then be a response to what nikon or sony released a month ago? No doubt, canon has already begun work on Digic 4 even though digic 3 isn't in our hands yet.

I've been deeply involved in design and production (mind you, not in tech products), and the ideas and minds behind the products we were working on were years ahead of what the consumer asks for or suspected.

If a company like canon wouldn't be a few steps (years even) ahead of the consumers, they would have long been surpassed by the competition.



Aug 30, 2006 at 07:10 PM
stevesanacore
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p.54 #19 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


I purchased the 5D within a week of it's availability and have been using it ever since, with my 1Ds as a back up. But neither is a substitute for 20+ MP and better AF.


Aug 30, 2006 at 07:39 PM
jwil
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p.54 #20 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread


kleinssz69 wrote:
It seems as if some guys/gals think that canon releases camera / lenses in response to whatever the competetors are releasing. Think about it, how long does it take for a company to put a new product into production?

I just chuckle when I read some of the post. Don' you think that work on the 400D and whatever else canon will release has begun at a minumum, a year ago? How can the 400D then be a response to what nikon or sony released a month ago? No doubt, canon has already begun work on Digic 4 even though
...Show more

Manufacturers very often release product in response to the competition, the but the trick is that it has been in development for a quite some time. The average person has never been exposed to how future product marketing and planning work in a large company, so this doesn't seem that logical.

Most large companies divide marketing and planning functions among several strategic groups, including Future Product Planning which is tied to R&D, Market Research tied to consumer trend research (think major market shifts like the popularity evolution of the SUV), Competetive Intelligence (industrial espionage), and Current Product Marketing which is closely tied to sales.

The basic function of these groups is that CI and MR feed trends and competetive intel (often down to the competitions specific product roadmaps out to 3-5 years) to R&D and Future PM. That starts the product development cycle usually about the time a product in that space is launched.

So, for example: Canon just launched the Rebel XTi, so right about now, Canon competetive intelligence is putting together a strategy to get next to Nikon, Sony and probably Olympus and Pentax people at Photokina to drill for reaction to the camera. This happens off the show floor. I'm not talking about pumping some booth bunny for info that's 8 levels above her pay grade.

Then over the next 4-6 months CI and MR will be researching the moves of competetors. Does Sony throw $250M into CCD development, does Nikon get out of the microscope business, etc. Add to that some back channel chatter among people in the industry and a Canon will be able to develop a pretty clear picture of where the competition is going to move over time. They anticipate those moves, wargame out a bunch of product scenarios and calculate a business case for each, then set their own strategic direction to meet the competitions likely threats.

Over the development cycle, CI continues to work on specific product roadmaps, if they don't already have them, and that gets fed to Development to refine the next gen product, which is already in the works.

Within about 4 months from now, The successor of the Rebel XTI will be deep into development in anticipation of what Nikon's D50 replacement will look like. This is why manufacturers always seem to leapfrog each other.

So, the XTi is a response to the D50, and probably a partial response to the D80, but Canon knew about both long before those products were even out of development. I've mentioned before that I work in strategic planning for a printing company that competes against Canon. In our CI group, we have the next 3+ years of product development roadmaps for Canon and other competition. It may change slightly over time but we know about where they will be - technically - in 3 years. The products we have in development now are to meet a threat that doesn't yet exist, but it will.



Aug 30, 2006 at 08:20 PM
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