adamx12m wrote:
The R5 will carry a huge premium, just like the RF lens so I'm kind of turned off by the costs of this new eco-system. Top it off with the pandemic and jobs, not good.
If Canon were the only camera maker, then maybe this would hold true, but they are not. The mirrorless full frame market is competitive and that means Canon has to stay inline with the rest—especially since they are not the leader in this segment. Yes the lenses are being sold at a premium, but selling the bodies at a premium would be a huge marketing blunder on the part of Canon. "Give the razors away for free and sell them the razors."
If Canon wants to regain their marketshare, they need to release product that exceeds the expectations of the market and be price aggressive.
The R5 specs and design are probably finalized by now, though maybe the firmware isn't. It's not suddenly going to become a cheapo camera because the economy is weak. Canon might have rebates after the initial pre-orders are filled, but the R and RP are still available for those not willing to buy an R5. They should update the R next year.
Yes, I think that R5 should come in at $2K. And that will already be a dear price for most in this economy.
I agree with the give away the printer make money off the ink strategy.
Otherwise, their product will just sit on shelves until they eventually do this anyways. Kind of like what happened with the original EOS M. Sold at 1/3 its price just a few months after.
EB-1 wrote:
The R5 specs and design are probably finalized by now, though maybe the firmware isn't. It's not suddenly going to become a cheapo camera because the economy is weak. Canon might have rebates after the initial pre-orders are filled, but the R and RP are still available for those not willing to buy an R5. They should update the R next year.
EBH
They will have to adjust for the COVID economy. RP $500, R $800, R5 $2K. Even at that I think they struggle to find buyers. It's gonna be a lean time and they will need to serve it lean.
I think the economic angle is really interesting. I am a student who has (fortunately) been saving for this camera for a long time and is (fortunately) in a position where I can still afford to spend that money on a camera, but clearly there are many people whose situations have changed dramatically over the past 6 weeks.
Question becomes, does Canon/the camera market at large change its pricing structure to meet this change in customer viability, or does it simply stand pat and deal with the losses/changes in buying habits as they come? I know for me, I am open to spending between $3,000 and $4,000 on a body, but I am not necessarily committed to buying an R5, so if Canon were to (for example) raise the price to $4,500 to offset a projected loss in sales, I would take a much harder look at Sony, Nikon, and Fuji offerings (assuming they did not raise their current and/or future prices).
There will be some economic impact but IMO it's not as deep as other industries. The only people buying dedicated stills cameras a la 5D series for the last 5 years have been professionals and people with lots of disposable income anyway. The wedding photographers might well decide that their 5D4s are still getting the job done for another year. People with lots of disposable income will still have lots of disposable income.
Sales will be impacted but IMO the supply chain disruptions that are inevitably occurring will make it such that they are able to sell whatever supply they can produce IMO. Just look at the situation with the 1DX3-- the few retailers that actually get their mitts on one are still selling them in short order. Demand is, I'm sure, down but there's so few units available that someone will buy it.
Balonson wrote:
They will have to adjust for the COVID economy. RP $500, R $800, R5 $2K. Even at that I think they struggle to find buyers. It's gonna be a lean time and they will need to serve it lean.
So with that thought the 1dx3 will soon be $3500, an iphone $400, and a new BMW at $20k? That is some wishful thinking, but there will always be buyers no matter the economy state. I look forward to this body but don't think this or other bodies will be significantly discounted for COVID, just like many other non-camera products. This body is more likely in the $4k range due to video features and while people may be slow to buy we all know Canon keeps models on the shelf for years which leaves plenty of time for price adjustments or bundles.
adamx12m wrote:
So with that thought the 1dx3 will soon be $3500, an iphone $400, and a new BMW at $20k? That is some wishful thinking, but there will always be buyers no matter the economy state. I look forward to this body but don't think this or other bodies will be significantly discounted for COVID, just like many other non-camera products. This body is more likely in the $4k range due to video features and while people may be slow to buy we all know Canon keeps models on the shelf for years which leaves plenty of time for price adjustments or bundles....Show more →
Yup, that's what I think. The middle and upper middle class are gonna get hollowed out and nobody has money anymore for that kind of stuff. So yes, even BMW is going to have to adjust down their prices.
Sure, Canon can sell to the well-heeled yacht-set, but that market is limited. If all the pros decide to use the 5D MK IV for another 2 years, and then Canon will take a big hit. But it's OK. Let them bring it out and $4K and maybe even do a little crippling. They will learn their lesson and then it will be EOS M redux where they will have to bargain bin it. But I hope they are smarter than that.
Balonson wrote:
Yup, that's what I think. The middle and upper middle class are gonna get hollowed out and nobody has money anymore for that kind of stuff. So yes, even BMW is going to have to adjust down their prices.
Sure, Canon can sell to the well-heeled yacht-set, but that market is limited. If all the pros decide to use the 5D MK IV for another 2 years, and then Canon will take a big hit. But it's OK. Let them bring it out and $4K and maybe even do a little crippling. They will learn their lesson and then it will be EOS M redux where they will have to bargain bin it. But I hope they are smarter than that....Show more →
I hope so, I need a new iPhone more than this body.. )
The virus economy is hitting different sections to varying degrees. There are sections that are making more money now than before. I don't think the virus will affect Canon camera prices. For some it will set them back years, others will recover quickly. Over the life of an R5 I think the current situation will have little effect on total sales, but initial sales may be slow due to the uncertainty, once this dissipates it will be back to normal for most folks.
Balonson wrote:
Yup, that's what I think. The middle and upper middle class are gonna get hollowed out and nobody has money anymore for that kind of stuff. So yes, even BMW is going to have to adjust down their prices.
Sure, Canon can sell to the well-heeled yacht-set, but that market is limited. If all the pros decide to use the 5D MK IV for another 2 years, and then Canon will take a big hit. But it's OK. Let them bring it out and $4K and maybe even do a little crippling. They will learn their lesson and then it will be EOS M redux where they will have to bargain bin it. But I hope they are smarter than that....Show more →
LoL, sounds like Canon is being run out of a Mom and Pop garage now!
Cut me a break. For decades we’ve been hearing that the ONLY reason that Canon is #1, is all due to good marketing and business savvy, since it’s clearly an inferior product and all one has to do is consult with DXO to See how true that is.
Canon happen to be a billion dollar multinational corporation, I think they’ll figure out what needs to be done without giving it’s cameras away.
About the only thing this corona thing is gonna do is delay by six months the complete burial plan of Sony!!!
John
Balonson wrote:
Yup, that's what I think. The middle and upper middle class are gonna get hollowed out and nobody has money anymore for that kind of stuff. So yes, even BMW is going to have to adjust down their prices.
Sure, Canon can sell to the well-heeled yacht-set, but that market is limited. If all the pros decide to use the 5D MK IV for another 2 years, and then Canon will take a big hit. But it's OK. Let them bring it out and $4K and maybe even do a little crippling. They will learn their lesson and then it will be EOS M redux where they will have to bargain bin it. But I hope they are smarter than that....Show more →
Keep in mind that the marginal cost of production for a product like the R5 is likely to be quite high. It's a brand new sensor which is not high volume. So it's not like Canon can just slash the price in half and try to sell more of them. The R+D for the sensor is water under the bridge, i.e. a sunk cost. But if the marginal production cost is say $2000 and the market will bear $1999, Canon actually will lose less money by just not making any cameras. Obviously those are made up numbers but you see the principle.
So while the body is likely to get discounted earlier than it would otherwise, there's a floor to the price of this thing and that floor is actually quite high. *Much* more likely IMO are promotions like 12 month financing, free grip, free ring adapter, bundle deals with the RF 24-105, etc.
It is possible that the professional crowd will push off the 5D4 -> R5 move from 2020 into 2021 or 2022, sure. COVID has done unimaginable things to most professionals. I have postponed all of my weddings through the middle of June and IMO the ones in June are quite likely to be postponed. I will still buy an R5 when it comes out. I've mostly transitioned to RF glass already and the funds were set aside immediately after the development announcement.
But again, it's not $4000 straight out of pocket for professionals as it is for non-professionals. They have already amortized the tax benefits of their 5D4s since the 2016 tax year and likely are done writing them off or will be after 2020 tax year.
So they will offset the R5 by (i) selling their 5D4 and (ii) writing off the R5.
The ability to take the cost of the upgrade as a direct business expense makes professionals less price sensitive than consumer price segments. And IMO if you had the disposable income to drop $4000 on a camera before COVID hit the economy then you likely still will 6 months from now. Not everyone, but I think most.
JohnSil wrote:
About the only thing this corona thing is gonna do is delay by six months the complete burial plan of Sony!!
Not sure you’re whether you’re joking or just wishfully thinking. I’m currently a Sony shooter and I’m personally hoping Canon does really well with the R5 and its other higher-end mirrorless cameras. More choice and more competition is a good thing.
mb126 wrote:
... SNIP ... And IMO if you had the disposable income to drop $4000 on a camera before COVID hit the economy then you likely still will 6 months from now .. SNIP
Personally, I think lots of photographers who appreciate good gear, will do as much as possible to upgrade or add a good new body. There's certainly photographers who will use their VISA or credit line when the "fog" fades and pieces of the puzzle start to fit once again.
I haven't financed a camera or lens. And sometimes wondered what percentage of photographers finance those.
2xbass wrote:
Not sure you’re whether you’re joking or just wishfully thinking. I’m currently a Sony shooter and I’m personally hoping Canon does really well with the R5 and its other higher-end mirrorless cameras. More choice and more competition is a good thing.
Yeah you're right, I don't mean that Sony is gonna go away any more than Nikon's death is likely pretty exaggerated. I just mean that at one point Sony was selling all of the ML cameras since it was the only company of any merit making them.
It probably won't take Canon but 2 years to take over the leading position of selling the most ML cameras from Sony!
It's not like Canon is new to ML as many seem to think. Canon has been making Cine ML cameras side by side with Sony for a decade! All that ML tech gave Canon a huge jump over Nikon which is struggling to jump into ML.
The sheer Horsepower behind Canon makes it formidable in anything to do with imaging!! Plus the fact that it has manufacturing plants all over Asia will make this Corona thing but an inconvenient speed bump in whatever it's plans are.
John
EB-1 wrote:
The R5 specs and design are probably finalized by now, though maybe the firmware isn't. It's not suddenly going to become a cheapo camera because the economy is weak. Canon might have rebates after the initial pre-orders are filled, but the R and RP are still available for those not willing to buy an R5. They should update the R next year.
EBH
Balonson wrote:
They will have to adjust for the COVID economy. RP $500, R $800, R5 $2K. Even at that I think they struggle to find buyers. It's gonna be a lean time and they will need to serve it lean.
That's wishful thinking, but not realistic. It's not like Canon will sell products well below cost to make some users happy. Even in the 2008-2009 recession Canon did not sell me any 1Ds III bodies for cheap.
mdvaden wrote:
Personally, I think lots of photographers who appreciate good gear, will do as much as possible to upgrade or add a good new body. There's certainly photographers who will use their VISA or credit line when the "fog" fades and pieces of the puzzle start to fit once again.
I haven't financed a camera or lens. And sometimes wondered what percentage of photographers finance those.
MD, If anybody finances gear it IS the pros. If they need the gear, they need it whether they can afford it or not. It doesn't matter if one make makes money with it or not, they STILL have to pay for it.
I've had several business. I'm always told, "just buy it you can right it off", but you STILL have to pay for it.
I guarantee you that the average plumber makes twice as much as the average professional photographer and can afford a $4K camera easier, they just can't write it off! Many can afford a $50K car and can't write that off either!
John
