p.3 #1 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
Jorgen Udvang wrote:
Once they try to be mobile phones, they will die. They can never compete with a 150 gram, pocketable computer/communication device in that area.
I tend to agree with you here. At best we'd end up with cameras that have user interfaces that are similar to an awful, buggy and outdated smartphone and that would only make it more obvious that the camera manufacturers can't compete in this way. They need to be best at what smartphones aren't good at or can't do at all.
p.3 #2 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
Jorgen Udvang wrote:
Most consumers don't realise to what degree choices are made for them by marketing, product placements etc.
As an article on color choices in the automotive industry said perhaps fifteen or more years ago:
"You don't know what color you want your next vehicle to be, until GM tells you so."
Jan 09, 2020 at 12:40 AM
imagesfromobjects Offline • • • • Upload & Sell: Off
p.3 #3 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
Well, since we're already a wee bit off-topic, I'll just repeat my personal feelings about something that's been deficient in current cameras versus phones. The ability to share instantly and the ability to run 3rd party apps for editing. I'm somewhere between Boomer and Millennial, but I can tell you that the future is *firmly* planted in Social Media. The kids want to use "filters" and post selfies to Instagram. Instagram doesn't always have the coolest filters, so they download other apps to edit photos, add graphics/text or what-have-you.
Before anyone gets to dismissive (I'm speaking as someone who shoots manual film cameras and develops at home, btw) please consider the possibilities of an open protocol for 3rd party apps. Want to add a weird aspect ratio? Change the color of the focus box? Design your own menu from scratch? Make your own JPEG styles? All of these things could be possible. Many of the complaints (and subsequent gear "upgrades") could be avoided. Instant sharing wouldn't trivialize a real camera into iPhone status, but it would be one less step that professional event shooters and advanced hobbyists would have to go through in order to share - professional-grade - photos.
Next step? Modular sensors and camera bodies. No more "wah wah ergonomiccccssss" or buying a new camera every year. Just add the body you like and swap out the sensor when it suits you. Shoot and be happy.
/rant
mawz wrote:
If you've read Hogan in depth, you'd know you are actually agreeing with him aside from one area. He's been very clear that he doesn't see Mirrorless doing anything more than arresting the decline of the market for a couple product generations, and that as much from the cost savings on the backend as anything else. Heck, he doesn't think most of the mirrorless market is actually worth the cost of upgrading from a DSLR from the last couple of generations.
He believes there are user workflow and capability challenges that nobody is addressing, especially in the consumer market where the phone market has provided a workflow for the casual shooter that's far and away superior to the workflow with any standalone camera and that the makers needs to address this or they will hit a point where market contraction starts killing them off.
p.3 #4 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
imagesfromobjects wrote..
Next step? Modular sensors and camera bodies. No more "wah wah ergonomiccccssss" or buying a new camera every year. Just add the body you like and swap out the sensor when it suits you. Shoot and be happy.
/rant
So just like shooting film kameras! New sensor with every shot, new sensor type with every roll of film.
p.3 #5 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
I wouldn't think you need such a high quality camera just for social media and thus just stick to mobile phones with their app advantage. As for interchangeable sensors, I can only imagine the nightmare of changing them - they would need to be enclosed in some sort of universal cartridge system that all the camera makers would have to agree with. It worked with film as it is cheap and the cartridges are cheap and there were real differences in film in those days, not so in sensors where the end result can be manipulated with post process software anyway. The differences just aren't enough. When a new sensor comes along due to "advancements" like higher Mp, IBIS, pixel shift etc, the camera is probably ready to be upgraded anyway and the cost of the "cartridge" system due to the added electronic contacts, IBIS etc would probably make it worth upgrading the camera anyway. Not only that, you need to upgrade the processing engine etc. Just can't see it working.
p.3 #6 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
I think he makes good points in his article. Nikon adds and then takes features away in this segment. Nikon should of just retired the D7xx moniker, because the D750 was more like a D650 and the new D780 is actually a D680. Neither body seems like the pro camera the D700 was when it was released. I don't get why Nikon all of a sudden doesn't make grips? Nikon alienates customers each time they take something away. Now customers who might of been interested in the D780, might look elsewhere and it might not be a Nikon camera.
If Nikon wants to make money, why not keep consistency throughout the camera line?
p.3 #8 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
Jonathan F wrote:
If Nikon wants to make money, why not keep consistency throughout the camera line?
Doesn't seem to be in their DNA. They give the impression of making things up as they go along every time they create a new line. Echos of Nikon 1 all over. 1 had viewfinder and optional grip. 2 had viewfinder and a different body. 3 had optional viewfinder and optional grip whilst costing the same as D7100/D7200 and yet another body shape. When photographers voted with their wallets, it became the end of the range.
D780 seems like a nice body. On-board flash absence is a clear cost-cutting measure only felt by Nikon and not by the customers. However, it can be worked around. Removal of grip option was silly.
p.3 #10 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
ilkka_nissila wrote:
Hogan's message and beliefs can be summarized in this quote: "Put a different way, what the camera makers need most right now is More Sales Volume."
That's what he wants. More industrial production and more sales so that money can change hands. The photographers don't need that, almost everyone already has what they need to create their work, and most have much more than they need. And the planet's environment certainly doesn't need it.
Probably he is biased towards significantly improved new cameras because that would require new camera guides. If people keep using their existing cameras not much new camera guide sales for Thom
Just to be sure, I like most of his writing and advice; just not so much when it comes to adding "smartphone capabilities" (social media / instant connection features etc.) to current cameras, which sounds like a distracting nightmare to me. In ten years those Facebook/Twitter/Instagram/cloud storage functions on a ML camera will look terribly outdated while that old D850 DSLR might be considered a classic tool; but that's probably because I'm GenX and not a Millennial
Agree about the environmental stuff but it seems a lost cause for now. I have been arguing about this with the Dutch authorities for years; they love "recycling", but only if it means sending new (working) gear to the shredders as soon as possible to keep the factories and consumption economy humming. Giving gear a longer or new use is a terrible idea for them. I'm afraid we will see more planned obsolescence in future cameras, probably easier with ML technology ;(
p.3 #12 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
Unfortunately, all the time!
The PDAF metallic elements are etched on the sensor.
Jan 09, 2020 at 06:32 AM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: Off
p.3 #13 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
1bwana1 wrote:
Well, right now the trend is in the environments favor, not Hogans "more sales volume" direction. I guess universal income schemes can make up for all the jobs that are being lost.
If we can just keep people ignorant about what is available, and unemployed so they don't have money to buy anything, we may actually be able to save this planet.
The CIPA data is interesting. That is now three months in a row with sales of over 800,000 units of interchangeable lens cameras and therefore a much smaller drop in sales (just 7 percent for November compared to 35 percent in February and 33 percent in March). That uptick seems to be almost totally due to mirrorless which has had double digit growth for the last three months in not only revenue but also sales. It is obviously only a small amount of data and we will have to see in coming months, but it may be that the market is stabilizing and we may see a market with about 9,000,000 unit sales a year that is relatively stable or at least is not dropping nearly as fast as was feared earlier this year.
p.3 #14 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
There have been big blowout prices on mirrorless the last 3 months...might be a huge factor in the numbers. It's too bad we don't see margins.
Jan 09, 2020 at 09:59 AM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: Off
p.3 #15 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
chez wrote:
There have been big blowout prices on mirrorless the last 3 months...might be a huge factor in the numbers. It's too bad we don't see margins.
We can calculate price per unit sold, however, and that does not seem to be dropping much, for mirrorless anyway. In November the price per unit was $651, and from January through August the price per unit was $667. That is just a 2% drop in price per unit. In contrast, volume of sales from January through August there were on average 287,757 mirrorless units sold a month, whereas in September, October, and November there were on average 438,729 units sold a month an increase of over 50% in units sold. Some of that increase would be expected at that time of the year, but not nearly that big of an increase. Simply put there is little evidence of lowered prices driving the increase in sales. It seems to be a genuine increase that is at most minimally affected by blowout prices.
p.3 #16 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
DSLR as a product is mature. Therefore I would be surprised to see large ground up makeovers. This model appears to be modernizing an old favourite. If it were otherwise and the next generation Nikon mirrorless turned out to be underwhelming then the crying and criticism would be why Nikon spent so much on DSLR's when they should have focussed on mirrorless. The price point is questionable though and the market will decide if it makes sense.
p.3 #17 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
Steve Spencer wrote:
We can calculate price per unit sold, however, and that does not seem to be dropping much, for mirrorless anyway. In November the price per unit was $651, and from January through August the price per unit was $667. That is just a 2% drop in price per unit. In contrast, volume of sales from January through August there were on average 287,757 mirrorless units sold a month, whereas in September, October, and November there were on average 438,729 units sold a month an increase of over 50% in units sold. Some of that increase would be expected at that time of the year, but not nearly that big of an increase. Simply put there is little evidence of lowered prices driving the increase in sales. It seems to be a genuine increase that is at most minimally affected by blowout prices....Show more →
That increase in sales happens every year during those three months...the graph clearly shows this. What is more unexplained is the much bigger drop in sales than normal during the beginning of 2019 and during the summer months. I think your 50% sales growth would be much less of a percentage if the camera sales didn't take such a big hit during the first half of the year.
It will be interesting to see if sales continue to take a big drop again in 2020 at the beginning of the year.
p.3 #18 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
Funny story. I got into Sony full frame because the Z cameras didn't include a vertical grip option. Now look where the majority of my money gets spent Nikon Jonathan F wrote:
I think he makes good points in his article. Nikon adds and then takes features away in this segment. Nikon should of just retired the D7xx moniker, because the D750 was more like a D650 and the new D780 is actually a D680. Neither body seems like the pro camera the D700 was when it was released. I don't get why Nikon all of a sudden doesn't make grips? Nikon alienates customers each time they take something away. Now customers who might of been interested in the D780, might look elsewhere and it might not be a Nikon camera.
If Nikon wants to make money, why not keep consistency throughout the camera line? ...Show more →
p.3 #20 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?
JadedWriter wrote:
Funny story. I got into Sony full frame because the Z cameras didn't include a vertical grip option. Now look where the majority of my money gets spent Nikon
I would of loved to fully consolidate back into the Nikon fold, but I find Sony's been a bit more consistent when it comes to retaining features and building on what's there. Nikon's been haphazard when it comes to their cameras and it's a big turn off. Also I've always preferred OEM grips over the knock-offs, because they're just built more solid. I don't consider Sony perfect either and to be honest, I think Nikon could easily beat Sony in the mirrorless market if they stuck with a consistent feature set. You don't take features away when the competition at the same price point offers those options. Nikon's operating in a bubble if they think consumers don't notice.
