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Archive 2020 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

sum1sgrampa
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p.2 #1 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

mawz wrote:
That also includes Hogan, whose primary body remains the D850

His point is that the makers are facing a volume issue and if they want to reverse the volume decline they need to do better than 'solid but not compelling' on body updates. Quite simply most photographers have a body that meets their needs today and the new bodies don't bring a compelling reason to update to the table.

Is the D780 better than the D750? Yes. No doubt about that even despite a couple bits of decontenting.

For the typical D750 shooter does the D780 bring any compelling reason to upgrade to it? Nope. If you're a video guy, sure, but the Z6 is a better video body than the D780 for less money.

Is the LV better? yeah, and LV AF is miles better. But if you have a D750 and are a stills shooter primarily you have no real compelling reason to buy a new D780 (and if you're buying into the system, the huge price difference between the two more than offsets the mild improvements of the D780)

If Nikon wants to move bodies, their new bodies need to give the buyer a compelling reason to buy them over their current bodies. And today, the only current FX body that can really say that over its predecessors is the D850, and it's been around long enough that most of the upgraders already have.

What Nikon (and everbody else) needs to bring to the table is either wildly more bang for the buck, or innovation that solves actual user issues. Just solid iterations of current product won't do it and we've seen neither of the former two from any of the major brands in a while. Sony delivered teh first with their Mark III A7's and the original A9, but the A9II and A7RIV are just iteration. Canon's done nothing but iterate mildly since the 5DmII, Nikon delivered with the D850 and D500 a few years ago, but everything else since the D4/D800 era has been mild iterations.

So Nikon. You want me to buy new?

Solve problems I actually have. Everything in the D780 except LVAF solves a problem you already solved, just a bit better than the previous solution.

Deliver a better workflow, because the current one SUCKS. Make getting images to my Instagram/Flickr/500px/website easy, give me a real mobile workflow so I can shoot->Edit->post/print on the go. And don't try and do it with some crappy walled garden platform because you don't have the resources to make that platform competitive, nor do I want to buy some expensive and large dongle for stuff that should be built-in (WT-7A anyone?)

Give me the capability to do the things my Pixel can do in my D/Z body. How about real multishot capabilities. Focus stacking, synthetic ND, multishot HDR to RAW with comparable performance to Google Camera, high-res multishot, debayer multishot, etc...

How about an in-camera API and app platform (Sony tried this, but never really released the API's and used a walled garden to get apps in). Let me load the features I want, but make them seamless to use (unlike Sony's in-camera apps). Let me combine features in ways you didn't expect (inc-camera workflow scripts would be cool and useful)

Let me run the camera off USB power, not just charge from it. heck, how about an external USB-C based EN-EL15 charger.

Change the game. because it's game changers that will sell cameras. Iteration worked from 1999-2012 or so because the iterations were generally big and real problems were being solved, sensors were improving in huge jumps and so was processing. But a D800 is still a competent and competitive camera today, as is a D4 or a D7100 or even the much-maligned D600. Are today's cameras better/faster? Sure they are, but it's incrementally so, not revolutionary. And those bodies are all 2-3 generations old and many of their users aren't even looking at a new body. Give them a reason to by solving problems those bodies don't. ...Show more →

Geez, And all this time I've just been taking pictures

Jan 08, 2020 at 10:50 AM

T-O Shooter
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p.2 #2 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

1bwana1 wrote:
But it is correctly envisioning the future that is at the essence of success. When you buy or sell a stock, a house, a commercial property. When you invest in the development of product, or a marketing plan. When you hire or fire someone. All these things you are doing with an eye to the future. So, if you are not trying to see the future, you are likely in a lower end job, are not part of leadership, and not self determinant.

Don't give up. With any luck you can escape that poor fishing village of La Jolla.

Jan 08, 2020 at 10:52 AM

mawz
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p.2 #3 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

sum1sgrampa wrote:
Geez, And all this time I've just been taking pictures

Nikon's fundamental problem is that we're all doing that, rather than hoping that Nikon's next release solves something that sucks about our current cameras, because the current ones don't suck, and neither do the bodies that set replaced.

Jan 08, 2020 at 10:52 AM

1bwana1
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p.2 #4 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

T-O Shooter wrote:
Don't give up. With any luck you can escape that poor fishing village of La Jolla.

I know, I try to keep my spirits up, but the noise from the crashing waves outside my windows, and the lack of snow, can be trying at times......

Jan 08, 2020 at 10:56 AM

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p.2 #5 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

Jorgen Udvang wrote:
When it comes to photo enthusiasts (not camera enthusiasts, that's a different thing), I suspect it's more like 50/50. For sports photography, there's no competition. The A9 is a nice camera and the E-M1X even more so, but there's simply no reason to dump the optical viewfinder and long battery life and replace it with "technology" when visual contact with the scene is a must.

Given your statement, I don't think you've used the A9 for sports. I no longer shoot sports, though I did once, and I can say I would have absolutely salivated over the A9 and taken it immediately over the 1DX mk III and probably the upcoming D6, unless they have a big surprise in store.

It's funny, I feel Sony is more known for video, but I'd switch to their system for stills - that lock on AF - first. I actually still very much love my Z6...for video. And my D500 is more camera than I need for stills (and frankly, so's my old D3s). But if I were still doing it as a pro, I'd take that A9 all day.

Jan 08, 2020 at 10:59 AM

ilkka_nissila
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p.2 #6 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

Hogan's agenda is to promote sales of new gear, just like all gear review sites do: they want people to go and buy all new lenses and cameras and to dump their old gear. "Please do it with the affiliate link below:" advertiser clicks = money. They will do what they can to make people feel unhappy with the gear they already have, to push people to put aside what they have and buy new stuff. And they make it seem like they believed they are acting in the best interest of everyone. They're not.

It's not about the superiority of one technology over another but forcing purchases to take place so that money can change hands.

Instead, people should be encouraged to learn skills and use everything they already have without buying new gear unless absolutely necessary. As a result, there would be less environmental waste and pollution and people could live healthier lives - and rather than blame the equipment, they would learn skills that allow them to produce better results with what already exists.

But no, all that matters to these people is that new gear must be purchased (if possible, whole new systems rather than individual items) or bells should be ringing in alarm.

Edited on Jan 08, 2020 at 11:13 AM · View previous versions

Jan 08, 2020 at 11:01 AM

chez
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p.2 #7 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

I thought Tom was highly looked upon on this forum just not so long ago. How things change when the message changes.

Jan 08, 2020 at 11:08 AM

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p.2 #8 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

I haven't even had the urge to get a new Nikon since I got the D810 and D4, which I'd still be using if I wasn't doing so much video work and my job needed me to email pictures straight from the event for social media. Nikon needs very compelling upgrades to get my money, especially for a DSLR. For 2 grand I'd get a D850, but only after I get an A9. My needs are a bit wildly tiered since I'm on 3 systems.
mawz wrote:
That also includes Hogan, whose primary body remains the D850

His point is that the makers are facing a volume issue and if they want to reverse the volume decline they need to do better than 'solid but not compelling' on body updates. Quite simply most photographers have a body that meets their needs today and the new bodies don't bring a compelling reason to update to the table.

Is the D780 better than the D750? Yes. No doubt about that even despite a couple bits of decontenting.

For the typical D750 shooter does the D780 bring any compelling reason to upgrade to it? Nope. If you're a video guy, sure, but the Z6 is a better video body than the D780 for less money.

Is the LV better? yeah, and LV AF is miles better. But if you have a D750 and are a stills shooter primarily you have no real compelling reason to buy a new D780 (and if you're buying into the system, the huge price difference between the two more than offsets the mild improvements of the D780)

If Nikon wants to move bodies, their new bodies need to give the buyer a compelling reason to buy them over their current bodies. And today, the only current FX body that can really say that over its predecessors is the D850, and it's been around long enough that most of the upgraders already have.

What Nikon (and everbody else) needs to bring to the table is either wildly more bang for the buck, or innovation that solves actual user issues. Just solid iterations of current product won't do it and we've seen neither of the former two from any of the major brands in a while. Sony delivered teh first with their Mark III A7's and the original A9, but the A9II and A7RIV are just iteration. Canon's done nothing but iterate mildly since the 5DmII, Nikon delivered with the D850 and D500 a few years ago, but everything else since the D4/D800 era has been mild iterations.

So Nikon. You want me to buy new?

Solve problems I actually have. Everything in the D780 except LVAF solves a problem you already solved, just a bit better than the previous solution.

Deliver a better workflow, because the current one SUCKS. Make getting images to my Instagram/Flickr/500px/website easy, give me a real mobile workflow so I can shoot->Edit->post/print on the go. And don't try and do it with some crappy walled garden platform because you don't have the resources to make that platform competitive, nor do I want to buy some expensive and large dongle for stuff that should be built-in (WT-7A anyone?)

Give me the capability to do the things my Pixel can do in my D/Z body. How about real multishot capabilities. Focus stacking, synthetic ND, multishot HDR to RAW with comparable performance to Google Camera, high-res multishot, debayer multishot, etc...

How about an in-camera API and app platform (Sony tried this, but never really released the API's and used a walled garden to get apps in). Let me load the features I want, but make them seamless to use (unlike Sony's in-camera apps). Let me combine features in ways you didn't expect (inc-camera workflow scripts would be cool and useful)

Let me run the camera off USB power, not just charge from it. heck, how about an external USB-C based EN-EL15 charger.

Change the game. because it's game changers that will sell cameras. Iteration worked from 1999-2012 or so because the iterations were generally big and real problems were being solved, sensors were improving in huge jumps and so was processing. But a D800 is still a competent and competitive camera today, as is a D4 or a D7100 or even the much-maligned D600. Are today's cameras better/faster? Sure they are, but it's incrementally so, not revolutionary. And those bodies are all 2-3 generations old and many of their users aren't even looking at a new body. Give them a reason to by solving problems those bodies don't. ...Show more →

chez wrote:
I thought Tom was highly looked upon on this forum just not so long ago. How things change when the message changes.

Edited on Jan 08, 2020 at 11:15 AM · View previous versions

Jan 08, 2020 at 11:11 AM

Raticus
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p.2 #9 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

ilkka_nissila wrote:
Hogan's agenda is to promote sales of new gear, just like all gear review sites do: they want people to go and buy all new lenses and cameras and to dump their old gear. Please do it with the affiliate link below: advertiser clicks = money. That's what these people do for a living: do everything that they can to make people be unhappy with the gear they already have, to push people over the edge to dump what they have and buy new stuff. And they make it seem like they believed they are acting in the best interest...Show more →

That's probably part of it, but if you read Hogan regularly he enjoys business forecasting, and all this article is for him is a forecast. It's worth as much as any other forecast. He has good points and bad points. Points that can be agreed with or disagreed with depending on ones personal perspective. And sure, he wants traffic on his web site, just like any other business. It doesn't mean his opinion should be dismissed, but we should also think for ourselves.

Eventually the market will determine the products Nikon and the others will produce. It's clear that mirrorless is the current trend. I personally think DX DSLR's will be phased out, but there will remain a FX line of DSLR's, at least for awhile. Nikon still makes film cameras, so I imagine they would always make a couple models of DSLR, but who knows, right?

Jan 08, 2020 at 11:13 AM

1bwana1
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p.2 #10 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

Jan 08, 2020 at 11:15 AM

ilkka_nissila
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p.2 #11 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

1bwana1 wrote:
The fact that in his article Hogan is saying that these new cameras are not worth the upgrade for most, is more likely to discourage people from using affiliate links on his site to buy one. This disproves your first paragraph rather well.

He is saying is that these DSLR cameras are not worth the upgrade for most, as he wants everyone to buy all-new mirrorless systems rather than use the existing systems that they have (and only sometimes buy a new camera or lens).

He wants a disruption that changes the technology so that the boom can return to the camera business. But what he doesn't understand is that since long ago, most of us have already gotten all the things that we could possibly need and, above all, this is a good thing. Mirrorless won't create another boom and that's the way it should be. The gear that already exists should be used until it can no longer be repaired (and then recycled) and only then new purchases should be made, with whatever technology is current at the time.

He wants a prosperous camera business that will forever keep growing. I want a world where unnecessary consumption is avoided, because I actually care about the future of the planet and the future of humanity. All the industrial products that are made should be recycled by the manufacturers and the cost of this should be included in the purchase price. This should be mandatory and the license to manufacture new products should be contingent on proving that all the previous products have indeed been collected and recycled instead of thrown into dumps in Africa or the Oceans.

Not buying new things in order to save the environment is another cause you are going to lose. People are just not built that way.

It's not the way people are built in the DNA, but something that advertising, social media, youtube, etc. creates of us, by making us associate our self-worth with things we own rather than for example the friends and activities that we participate in, or things we learn.

All the world is spinning around consumption and this would quickly end if advertising were forbidden. It's not that we'd go out of our way to find stuff to buy, things that we don't need and don't know that exits.

Edited on Jan 08, 2020 at 11:30 AM · View previous versions

Jan 08, 2020 at 11:22 AM

1bwana1
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p.2 #12 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

ilkka_nissila wrote:
All the world is spinning around consumption and this would quickly end if advertising were forbidden. It's not that we'd go out of our way to find stuff to buy, things that we don't need and don't know that exits.

The true environmental solution has finally been discovered. It is not carbon credits. It is controlling communication so that the people are not aware of what the World has to offer.

Someone call that Greta kid with all the emotional problems. She is suffering for no reason.

Genius I say!

Jan 08, 2020 at 11:29 AM

ilkka_nissila
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p.2 #13 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

Hogan's message and beliefs can be summarized in this quote: "Put a different way, what the camera makers need most right now is More Sales Volume."

That's what he wants. More industrial production and more sales so that money can change hands. The photographers don't need that, almost everyone already has what they need to create their work, and most have much more than they need. And the planet's environment certainly doesn't need it.

Jan 08, 2020 at 11:33 AM

Jorgen Udvang
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p.2 #14 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

reggieb wrote:
Given your statement, I don't think you've used the A9 for sports. I no longer shoot sports, though I did once, and I can say I would have absolutely salivated over the A9 and taken it immediately over the 1DX mk III and probably the upcoming D6, unless they have a big surprise in store.

It's funny, I feel Sony is more known for video, but I'd switch to their system for stills - that lock on AF - first. I actually still very much love my Z6...for video. And my D500 is more camera than I need for stills...Show more →

It's correct, I never tried the A9 for sports. I shot motor sports for almost 10 years, 4-8,000 shots per weekend with Nikon cameras only. I didn't like the ergonomics of the Sony, didn't like the size, battery life was too short, build quality not good enough, there was a delay when switching on, a delay to wake up the EVF after sleep, but most of all, even with the good EVF of the A9, I always had a feeling that I didn't see the real action. It was more like watching a high quality TV.

I use Panasonic for mirrorless, not because they deliver the best image quality (they do deliver fantastic video quality though), but because ergonomics and build quality are great. They are also very easy to configure the way I like it. Panasonic mirrorless and Nikon DSLR are very similar in this respect.

Since I travel a lot, partly to very hostile environments, I need cameras that can take a beating. I also need cameras that are "always ready". An OVF is always on and brings me close to the subject. Battery life is no worry with a DSLR, and with 2,200 clicks plus USB charging on the D780, it's in reality lighter than a Z6 when extra batteries are included. When taking stills, the Z6 eats 6 batteries for each D760 battery.

It's not for everybody, and existing D750 owners might not even be the biggest target group for this new camera. But for those who do both stills and video, like OVFs and want full frame, it seems to be an excellent option.

Jan 08, 2020 at 11:52 AM

mawz
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p.2 #15 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

ilkka_nissila wrote:
Hogan's agenda is to promote sales of new gear, just like all gear review sites do: they want people to go and buy all new lenses and cameras and to dump their old gear. "Please do it with the affiliate link below:" advertiser clicks = money. They will do what they can to make people feel unhappy with the gear they already have, to push people to put aside what they have and buy new stuff. And they make it seem like they believed they are acting in the best interest of everyone. They're not.

It's not about the superiority of...Show more →

The flip side is that the makers also need to promote sales of new gear, or they go out of business.

Hogan's VERY good at giving useful gear-buying recommendations to users. He's been saying for years that the makers, especially Nikon, are not solving user issues and not delivering compelling reasons for users to buy. He was predicting the current sales crash well before most anyone else.

He's also the guy who has been recommending for years that users not buy a new camera, instead to wait a generation by default or even just stay with what they have. His gear buying recommendations are heavily waited towards 'don't buy unless you really need it' unlike other pundits.

Also note that his primary income streams are photography and his 3rd party manuals, not driving hits on his site, although he does have affiliate links and makes some money that way. So he doesn't really care as much if you buy a new body, so much as if you need a good manual for whatever body you have today.

Jan 08, 2020 at 11:57 AM

mawz
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p.2 #16 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

ilkka_nissila wrote:
He is saying is that these DSLR cameras are not worth the upgrade for most, as he wants everyone to buy all-new mirrorless systems rather than use the existing systems that they have (and only sometimes buy a new camera or lens).

He wants a disruption that changes the technology so that the boom can return to the camera business. But what he doesn't understand is that since long ago, most of us have already gotten all the things that we could possibly need and, above all, this is a good thing. Mirrorless won't create another boom and that's the way...Show more →

If you've read Hogan in depth, you'd know you are actually agreeing with him aside from one area. He's been very clear that he doesn't see Mirrorless doing anything more than arresting the decline of the market for a couple product generations, and that as much from the cost savings on the backend as anything else. Heck, he doesn't think most of the mirrorless market is actually worth the cost of upgrading from a DSLR from the last couple of generations.

He believes there are user workflow and capability challenges that nobody is addressing, especially in the consumer market where the phone market has provided a workflow for the casual shooter that's far and away superior to the workflow with any standalone camera and that the makers needs to address this or they will hit a point where market contraction starts killing them off.

Jan 08, 2020 at 12:04 PM

1bwana1
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p.2 #17 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

ilkka_nissila wrote:
Hogan's message and beliefs can be summarized in this quote: "Put a different way, what the camera makers need most right now is More Sales Volume."

That's what he wants. More industrial production and more sales so that money can change hands. The photographers don't need that, almost everyone already has what they need to create their work, and most have much more than they need. And the planet's environment certainly doesn't need it.

Well, right now the trend is in the environments favor, not Hogans "more sales volume" direction. I guess universal income schemes can make up for all the jobs that are being lost.

If we can just keep people ignorant about what is available, and unemployed so they don't have money to buy anything, we may actually be able to save this planet.

November 2019 camara sales data is out now.

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/dw-201911_e.pdf

Jan 08, 2020 at 12:14 PM

sum1sgrampa
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p.2 #18 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

Raticus wrote:
That's probably part of it, but if you read Hogan regularly he enjoys business forecasting, and all this article is for him is a forecast. It's worth as much as any other forecast. He has good points and bad points. Points that can be agreed with or disagreed with depending on ones personal perspective. And sure, he wants traffic on his web site, just like any other business. It doesn't mean his opinion should be dismissed, but we should also think for ourselves.

Eventually the market will determine the products Nikon and the others will produce. It's clear that mirrorless is...Show more →

I'm not so sure about this. " Eventually the market will determine the products Nikon and others will produce". 99.9 % of the camera buying public can not build their own cameras. So we will continue to buy what the manufacturers present to us. And it's always presented as better, the latest and the greatest. I think it's wrong to assume that just because Nikon or Canon decides that mirrorless is the future and it makes more sense for them from a business standpoint, that it's necessarily better for everyone. They're never going to put all their R&D into mirrorless, test the market, then decide they better go back to SLR. Not gonna happen. They're going to try and convince us that they know what we want and need. I think it's called marketing.

Jan 08, 2020 at 06:06 PM

Raticus
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p.2 #19 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

sum1sgrampa wrote:
I'm not so sure about this. " Eventually the market will determine the products Nikon and others will produce". 99.9 % of the camera buying public can not build their own cameras. So we will continue to buy what the manufacturers present to us. And it's always presented as better, the latest and the greatest. I think it's wrong to assume that just because Nikon or Canon decides that mirrorless is the future and it makes more sense for them from a business standpoint, that it's necessarily better for everyone. They're never going to put all their R&D into mirrorless,...Show more →

Fair enough. (Perhaps....what I meant was the market will determine the volume produced. Thom does offer similar criticism that Nikon does not listen to their customers. Then again, it's impossible to please all customers, and so it goes.)

Jan 08, 2020 at 07:49 PM

Jorgen Udvang
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p.2 #20 · Hogan's article - The DSLR cash cow is alive for how long?

I don't understand why all cameras would need to have all features that mobile phones have. When I'm travelling, I fire off a few shots with my phone if I want to post on social media. My "real" photos, I want to go through on my computer before I decide which ones to publish. This "cameras need to become as smart as mobile phones or else they will die" notion is in my view BS. Camera manufacturers must develop their own niche, their own style and marketing. Once they try to be mobile phones, they will die. They can never compete with a 150 gram, pocketable computer/communication device in that area.

Unfortunately, shortsighted investors and aggressive marketing departments are setting the agenda. Most consumers don't realise to what degree choices are made for them by marketing, product placements etc. The danger is that photography as a hobby goes the way of stamp collecting and post cards; a niche activity for film nerds and Leica collectors. A bit pessimistic maybe, but I think Nikon is doing the right thing here, making a very capable, user friendly camera for nerds and professionals alike. If that fails, Nikon may be out of luck.

Jan 08, 2020 at 10:37 PM

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