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 p.4 #18 · FF Mirrorless, what's it going to take Sony, Canon, Nikon | |
Steve Spencer wrote:
Sony has a huge head start, and Canon and Nikon are new to the game, but both made interesting beginnings. Let's start with Sony as I think it is easier to predict what they are going to do with a longer history.
Sony will I believe have 5 brand new cameras by the end of next year:
A 9 II - we have rumors this will be out this Fall and they seem credible with the Olympics coming to Tokyo in 2020. What will this camera look like? I don't think they will increase the megapixels (and if they do so only to 26MP), but I do expect them to increase the sensor read out speed. They might even get it fast enough for a global shutter. The more reasonable prediction, however, is an increase in the sensor read out to 1/240 which will reduce the EVF lag (and I am pretty sure this lag will not be perceptible at this speed; keep in mind the brain has about a 100ms lag between when the light hits the eye and we perceive anything about that light), remove any artifacts from movement of the subject, and make pulsing lights a totally non-issue. It should allow a bigger faster EVF as well that is completely blackout free. I also expect a better mechanical shutter that can do 10fps and that handle flash well. AF focus will be even better and it will track phenomenally well. It will be at least 25 fps. It will have two faster card slots as well, probably XQD, which will make the buffer essentially endless. This camera represents the future of mirrorless--especially if it has a global shutter and can be rid of the mechanical shutter entirely. It is the sort of camera Canon and Nikon need to be able to make if they want to stay competitive for the mirrorless market. I expect this camera can come in at a $4,000 price tag.
A7R IV (or if they don't want to go with a IV designation A7X or whatever) - I expect this camera by April of 2020. It will be the next bump in MP. Sony has an APS-C and a 44X33 medium format sensor with pixels that are 3.76 microns, and those are modern sensors that are backside illuminated, have phase detect auto focus (PDAF) pixels built-in, fast frames per second and strong video performance. Sony obvious can build a FF 35mm sensor with that same pixel size which will give them a 60MP FF 35mm sensor. I think it will be interesting what Sony does with the EVF of this camera. In my view they should go with a bigger EVF than the current A7R III, I think they will stick with 2 SD slots, but upgrade both of them to UHS-II. I think the camera despite its high MP will shoot at 12 fps. The AF will be an improvement over the A7r III, but I expect improvement over the latest firmware upgrade to be modest. I think we will also see for the first time better weather sealing. This is going to be a great camera and I expect Sony to be more aggressive with pricing it about $3,000.
A7 IV (or if they don't like the IV designation A7M or whatever) - I expect this camera by August of 2020. It is probably the most important for Sony as they will sell a lot of these. Here is my best guess: A 36MP BSI sensor that can shoot 10 fps. It will have the bigger EVF like the A9 II. It will have built-in PDAF and incremental increase in AF beyond the recent firmware update. It will have two UHS-II card slots, and quite decent video performance. I also expect better weather sealing like the high MP model. I think they sell this camera with aggressive pricing at $2,000.
A7S III - Early next year I expect this camera to finally arrive. It expect it will have a stacked BSI sensor with really fast sensor readout. This may be the first camera with a global shutter, and I expect it to be top of the line for video. I expect the sensor read out to be 1/320 or faster. I think Sony will actually not up the MPs much. My guess is that it will still be a 12MP sensor which will rule out 8K video but everything else. I also expect the big EVF and ridiculous FP (at least 30). AF will be excellent with PDAF and good tracking, but I expect the firmware will be tuned for video AF. This will not be a cheap camera. I expect a price of at least $3,000 as Sony has no competition here and is unlikely to have any soon.
A5 - by the end of 2020 I expect Sony to introduce a low level FF mirrorless. This will have the 24MP BSI sensor with good PDAF from the A7 III. It will get the EVF the the current A7R III uses and will get two UHS-II card slots and it will be better weather sealed. So basically the current A7 III with a couple nice upgrades and it will be aggressively priced at $1,500. Another way to think about it is this A5 will look almost exactly like the A7 IV (or whatever they call it) but will have a lower resolution sensor. This will be a great camera for a lot of people and we have the Canon RP to thank for it.
Nikon:
I think Nikon will not be able to come out with any response to Sony until the end of 2020 or the beginning of 2021. Here are the three cameras I think they need to build.
Z7 II - They ought to get the 60MP sensor from Sony that I expect in the A7R IV, but make their typical Sony tweaks to it with better base ISO at a slight sacrifice to high ISO. This fits this camera very very well. They need big improvement in their AF based on the built-in PDAF to get better tracking. They need to built it with a bigger EVF. They need nice weather sealing. Two XQD slots is a given and they need to improve the battery life too, even if it mean a new battery. The camera needs good weather sealing. They also need to sort out flash, so that low light flash works well. Nikon has always had great flash performance and this camera has to claim that back for Nikon. This camera needs to be priced at no more than $3,000.
Z6 II - I think this camera should stick with the 24MP sensor, but work on fixing everything that is mentioned above with the A7 II and get this thing out as soon as they possibly can, but while making sure the new fixes really work. That includes AF and flash. Adding the two slots, increasing battery performance, and making it better weather sealed ought to be pretty possible, but improving AF and flash will take a bit more work. If they can get this out by the end of 2020 with the A7 II by the end of 2021 that would be great. Oh, as they are improving it add the bigger EVF too, and work to get the lag down especially in magnified mode, which is a real weakness now). They ought to price this aggressively at about $1,750 even if they aren't making much. They need to capture market share, so now isn't the time to maximize profits.
Z8 (that's what I would call it, but I am just making up a name) - They need to make a deal with Sony and get their hands on that 24MP stacked BSI chip that is in the A9. Then they need to develop a camera with a super fast sensor readout and hopefully a global shutter. This needs a big EVF with zero viewfinder blackout and full time use of a silent shutter (except for perhaps flash). It should also have a little EVF lag as possible and should be getting to the point that it is imperceptible. Obviously the AF has to be developed and it has to be great. This camera can be great for video and they shouldn't hold back like Sony did with the A9 and offer full video capabilities. This camera is super important for the future and they need to get it out as soon as possible. They need to price it at no more Thant $4000.
Other super important stuff Nikon needs to do. They need to keep to their lens roadmap. With the slots left they need an excellent macro, at least 2 more f/1.4 or faster primes, a 70-200 f/4 zoom (I think these should be their slots for 2020) and for the seven slots for 2021 I would love to see at least 2 long lenses one a zoom and one a prime, at least 2 more f/1.4 or faster primes, either a 105 f/1.4 or a 135 f/2 or f/1.8, and the last two could be a lot of things (my vote even though I know it is boring is that I think they need a 70-300 or something like that lower level zoom, and I always have like a 180 f/2.8 lens and Nikon has a nice history with such lenses and it would give them something unique). So, by the end of 2021 they will have a great set of lenses. There will still be work to do, but the system will be in good shape. Oh, they should also make a second F mount adapter with a screw drive (as soon as they can) to keep people with D lenses happy as they can be. No getting around the D lenses won't perform well with this adapter, but at least they won't be left out in the cold with those lenses. And if it wasn't obvious from above, I think they have to develop a top flash system for the Z cameras.
I think Nikon can totally be in the game within 5 years, but I would expect they will be a smaller company with about 15 to 20 percent of the market share.
Canon:
Canon's response to Sony needs to be robust and they face a huge number of challenges. First, they need to develop more competitive sensors. One might argue Canon should just buy sensors from Sony, but I don't see them doing that. The dual pixel technology they have developed is also a great idea and better, IMO, than what Sony is doing with AF. Canon needs desperately to improve low ISO DR and to get BSI or similar technology that allows faster reads of the sensor and more room for electronics on the sensor. Investing in sensor technology has to be a huge part of Canon's plan going forward. With that said these are the cameras I think Canon needs to make by the end of 2020 or early in 2021:
Canon RS - this is the high MP camera that everyone expects Canon to make before too long. This will not be a 70MP camera, IMO. It seems people got to that number by saying Sony has a 42MP and if they go to 60MP, Canon has a 50MP camera so they should be able to go to 70MP. The problem with that way of thinking is that Sony can clearly go to 60MP because they have made both an APS-C sensor with that pixel density and now even a 44X33 sensor with that pixel density. Canon has never made even an APS-C sensor with the pixel density that would be required for a 70MP camera. I don't think they are going to start making pixels that small with a FF 35mm sensor. What is much more likely is that they will make about a 62MP sensor which will have the same pixel size as their smallest pixels for an APS-C camera and that is 3.72 microns. This gives them a camera with a sensor that can at least be fairly competitive with the Sony A7r IV (or whatever they call it). It won't have the dynamic range of the Sony sensor, but it should be pretty decent and won't be far behind the at high ISO either. If they continue to develop their dual pixel AF, this ought to be a very strong camera. What I think will delay it, however, is that they really need to develop in body image stabilization (IBIS). This is a feature people are just going to want in this advanced camera. They also need two card slots, a decent battery, and decent weather sealing. If they can do that, I think Canon will have moved to righting the ship. This camera has to come in at $3,000 to be competitive with Sony and Nikon.
Canon R II - This camera can mostly focus on fixing what should have been done better in the original R. They need to add IBIS. The camera needs two card slots. The bar has to be rethought, IMO, or better yet replaced by something better. It needs a bigger EVF. It needs better weather sealing, and of course the AF improving with the dual pixel technology would be very welcome too. If Canon can do all this and keep this camera to about $2,000, they will be back in the game. I actually think this camera is more important than the RS.
Canon RP II - This camera needs a much better sensor. That one from the 6D II is just not close to competitive. I think the best answer for Canon is to go with the 20.2 MP sensor in the 1DX II. It actually is a pretty good sensor and much better than that one in the 6D II. They could keep the same EVF, and maybe even not add IBIS, but I think they should, and they should add whatever AF updates they are able to do. I think for this camera they can keep one card slot too. If they price this at $1,500 I think it would do a lot to help them.
Canon RC - I know it may seem like a radical idea, but I think they have to bring out an APS-C camera in R mount. I don't see how they can hope to continue both the M mount and the R mount. They can at least use the EF-S lenses with one of the adapters, and make a small set of relatively inexpensive R mount APS-C lenses in time as well. Here they an use the same sensor as in the 80D which isn't that bad at all. They can add IBIS, and the same features as the RP II, but keep the price down to $800. They really need an entry point camera that will get people into R lenses and not M lenses. They can still keep the M camera and lenses around for customers that want ultra small size for a good 5 years, but they have to start transitioning away from the M mount.
Other major stuff Canon needs to do includes keeping to their roadmap and developing a set of lenses that are smaller to complement the small size of the system. Of the ten lenses on their roadmap only the 35 f/1.8 Macro is a small lens. They have leaned heavily on fast lenses in their early roadmap with a trinity of f/2.8 zooms, a 50 f/1.2, two 85 f/1.2 lenses (although presumably the DS version isn't really going to be a different lens just a modification of the non-DS lens), and a ground breaking let's show what we can do with the new mount 28-70 f/2 zoom. Of the 8 lenses they have promised for 2020, IMO, at least 4 or 5 of them have to be slower less expensive lenses. I would love to see a 50 f/1.8, an 85 f/1.8, a nice small ultra wide f/4 zoom, and ideally a 70-200 f/4 zoom (especially given Canon heritage of popularizing such a zoom). They also need at one f/1.4 or faster lens that is wider than 50mm, and I think they need at least one long zoom and one long prime to show that they can and will make these lenses. That leaves up to two lenses left and there are lots of possibilities, but if I could pick, I would add and f/2 or f/1.4 wider than 35mm and a fast 135 either an f/2 or f/1.8.
I can't see how Canon will have anything competitive with the A9 or A9 II anytime soon, so they need to still make a 1DX III, but ideally they look to have a mirrorless in place by the next cycle for that camera. This will be a big challenge for Canon, along with upping their game across the board in sensor development. I also want to reiterate that Canon can needs to develop IBIS and a good flash system, IMO, and of course continue to develop their AF system which has been one of their bright spots. If Canon sticks to their roadmap and makes these advances I think they are still pretty well position to be a strong player in ILC five years from now, but they have to focus and improve fast. It will be interesting to see if a company as big as Canon can do that. I expect they can take 25 to 30 percent of the market share because of their already strong position.
So, I see a role for Sony, Nikon, & Canon in FF mirrorless 5 years from now as I see the market moving to about 75% to 90% mirrorless. All three companies can have a major role as we go forward, but Sony clearly has the advantage and Nikon and Canon don't have a lot of room to screw up. I see a role for Fuji, Pentax, Panasonic, and Leica too, I just don't expect any of those to capture more than 10 percent of the market.
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+1 One thing not mentioned (and maybe rightfully so!) is that there is a slight chance that Sony might want to compete with Fuji in the digital medium format segment. Over time larger sensors become cheaper, so digital medium format also becomes more affordable in general. Currently Fuji is getting for the GFX pricing nearly a monopoly here if competitors like Hasselblad and Leica are not careful.
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