p.5 #1 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
wiseguy010 wrote:
Nikon and Canon also make mirrorless systems which also are a part of the 25% that you mention. So they didn't loose that complete percentage. And it is not clear to me if 25% is correct btw.
If I racall correctly:
Mirrorless has about 25% of the market for camera with interchangeable lenses worldwide. Canon EF-M and Nikon 1 are obviously a part of those 25% mirrorless. The CIPA figures include the Japanese manufaturers.
Reading the financial reports for Nikon, Canon et al. we see that Nikon has increased sales from April-June 2014 to the same period for 2015, but they sell fewer units. Canon's imaging division has had a -15% drop in sales for the same period from 2014 to 2015. Thus I think it is safe to say that mostly Canon has taken the hit for the DSLR segment. Olympus financial report shows an increase in sales and that company is again making money on the imaging division.
Canon's imaging division consists of the camera business and photo/inkjet printers. The printers make up about 1/3 of the imaging division sales. This composition combined with the decline in the camera market leads me to believe that the Canon camera business is the part of their imaging division responsible for its' declining sales. In addition Canon and Nikon are the only significant DSLR manufacturers left.
I think that Nikon D800/810 have been important for Nikon's high end business. Probably Nikon gains from outsourcing sensor manufacturing to Sony, Toshiba etc. This has helped Nikon compete successfully with Canon, I believe.
p.5 #3 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
The CIPA numbers are there on their website for everyone to look at and interpret. Remember these are shipping numbers and not sales. Sales also includes the price as well. So if I ship and sell 10 items at $1/item...that is the same sales as shipping 1 item and selling it for $10.
In the graph below I have taken world-wide shipping for DSLRs and mirrorless cameras and derived a percentage. Explicitly, the percent is = [(mirrorless)/(mirrorless + DSLR)]*100. I think this is reasonable because mirrorless and DSLR compete in a similar space. They both have interchangeable lenses etc...
The graph shows varying percentage, but where recent 2015 data is concerned a value of 25% is seems quite reasonable.
p.5 #4 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
wiseguy010 wrote:
Nikon and Canon also make mirrorless systems which also are a part of the 25% that you mention. So they didn't loose that complete percentage. And it is not clear to me if 25% is correct btw.
25% is reasonable...speaking only in terms of mirrorless vs. DSLR, setting brand aside.
p.5 #5 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
U.C. wrote:
The OLED shines light under a different angle than the normal through the lens light. I don't know how they can make that work.
It seems like the easiest solution to that would be to move the OLED screen to the top and back of the pentaprism (under the shoe) and let it project onto the eye-facing mirror. I don't think it would be a pleasing solution as either an OVF or EFV, though.
Maybe they should just do a "tiny, dirty window" overlay on an EFV to emulate a modern DSLR OVF.
p.5 #6 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
galenapass wrote:
25% is reasonable...speaking only in terms of mirrorless vs. DSLR, setting brand aside.
My question is where did the 25% come from? Is it a new market, taken from cell phones, taken from DSLR? Market share is easy to calculate, the meaning of that market share is much more important and much more complicated to understand.
Your graph also shows that the market share has only slightly increased since 2012, starting around 20% and going up to 25% over 4 years.
p.5 #7 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
How are you deriving a direct cause and effect showing 25% has been taken from
canon/Nikon? Sounds like you are deliberately misinterpreting the numbers, which are an unfortunate mix of USA and global stats.
I've got my stats from. CIPA which has the stats for worldwide sales. Before you go and call someone out, you should do your own homework or you just look foolish.
p.5 #8 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
chez wrote:
I've got my stats from. CIPA which has the stats for worldwide sales. Before you go and call someone out, you should do your own homework or you just look foolish.
You didn't answer my question. How do you determine a cause and effect relationship here? You stated directly that canon/Nikon losing market share was taken by mirrorless. You, and everyone else here, have no way of knowing that.
To your other silly diversion, this thread has an unfortunate mix of USA and global stats, that is a fact. Best to read things so you don't look foolish.
p.5 #9 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
You didn't answer my question. How do you determine a cause and effect relationship here? You stated directly that canon/Nikon losing market share was taken by mirrorless. You, and everyone else here, have no way of knowing that.
To your other silly diversion, this thread has an unfortunate mix of USA and global stats, that is a fact. Best to read things so you don't look foolish.
Where else would Canikon market share go to than the mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras. What other camera other than DSLR and mirrorless cameras have interchangeable lenses.
Its black & white from the stats that in the interchangeable market, mirrorless has taken 25% of the market.
I'd love to know your view of these stats. How do you see the market share in 2015 for interchangeable lens camera shaking out.
Rather than just put down people, stick your neck out with your opinions for once.
p.5 #10 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
You didn't answer my question. How do you determine a cause and effect relationship here? You stated directly that canon/Nikon losing market share was taken by mirrorless. You, and everyone else here, have no way of knowing that.
To your other silly diversion, this thread has an unfortunate mix of USA and global stats, that is a fact. Best to read things so you don't look foolish.
The NPD Tracking Service stats are US. CIPA breaks things down into Japan, and everybody else. Its fine to look at a mix of data, as long as you know what you are looking at and don't make the wrong comparisons.
The big assumption is that 1 mirrorless camera sale is equal to one less DSLR sale. I am sure, as a group, we can think of many reasons why this would not be the case. So I do recognize what you are saying. However, as an approximation the ~25% number may have some merit.
Yes the change from 20 to ~ 25% is not huge; however, it is not the absolute change that is interesting but the trend. For example, when the 3rd qtr values come in, the % may be closer to 30. Next year maybe 35% and so on.
Again, these are shipping numbers that do not tell us anything about the $ involved.
p.5 #11 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
chez wrote:
Where else would Canikon market share go to than the mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras. What other camera other than DSLR and mirrorless cameras have interchangeable lenses.
Its black & white from the stats that in the interchangeable market, mirrorless has taken 25% of the market.
I'd love to know your view of these stats. How do you see the market share in 2015 for interchangeable lens camera shaking out.
Rather than just put down people, stick your neck out with your opinions for once.
Mirrorless is gaining market share by a reduction in sales of DSLR. We shouldn't confuse increased market share with increased sales. So, there is no way of knowing what would've happened if mirrorless never came around. I think it is quite likely that the mirrorless is pulling in a group that might not have purchased a DSLR, pulling from the P&S and cell phone market. I think there is also an initial surge of people picking up mirrorless as add-ons to DSLR, like many here on FM. Mirrorless sales are flat, market share is gaining slightly, no of which suggests that mirrorless has taken anything from canon/Nikon and certainly no evidence to make a direct cause and effect statement of fact.
p.5 #12 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
galenapass wrote:
The NPD Tracking Service stats are US. CIPA breaks things down into Japan, and everybody else. Its fine to look at a mix of data, as long as you know what you are looking at and don't make the wrong comparisons.
The big assumption is that 1 mirrorless camera sale is equal to one less DSLR sale. I am sure, as a group, we can think of many reasons why this would not be the case. So I do recognize what you are saying. However, as an approximation the ~25% number may have some merit.
Yes the change from 20 to ~ 25% is not huge; however, it is not the absolute change that is interesting but the trend. For example, when the 3rd qtr values come in, the % may be closer to 30. Next year maybe 35% and so on.
Again, these are shipping numbers that do not tell us anything about the $ involved....Show more →
I think it is quite interesting that it shows a 25% market share for the 4th quarter in 2012. That was very high and at a time when FF hadn't yet hit the mirrorless market. Obviously it was only one quarter, but still interesting annomoly in the numbers. I don't see any trend in the days leading to 30 or 35%.
p.5 #13 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
Mirrorless is gaining market share by a reduction in sales of DSLR. We shouldn't confuse increased market share with increased sales. So, there is no way of knowing what would've happened if mirrorless never came around. I think it is quite likely that the mirrorless is pulling in a group that might not have purchased a DSLR, pulling from the P&S and cell phone market. I think there is also an initial surge of people picking up mirrorless as add-ons to DSLR, like many here on FM. Mirrorless sales are flat, market share is gaining slightly, no of which suggests that mirrorless has taken anything from canon/Nikon and certainly no evidence to make a direct cause and effect statement of fact....Show more →
The bottom line is Canikon are both losing potential revenue by not having a viable mirrorless offering. I haven't checked the exact $$$, but it is not chump change. Especially in a time of declining revenues for Canikon.
As of today, out of the interchangeable lens camera market, Canikon is losing out 25% of that share to mirrorless. This is at a time when they lost their P&S market to cellphones.
p.5 #14 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
chez wrote:
The bottom line is Canikon are both losing potential revenue by not having a viable mirrorless offering. I haven't checked the exact $$$, but it is not chump change. Especially in a time of declining revenues for Canikon.
As of today, out of the interchangeable lens camera market, Canikon is losing out 25% of that share to mirrorless. This is at a time when they lost their P&S market to cellphones.
And Sony is losing 75% market opportunities by not being in the DSLR world.
p.5 #15 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
chez wrote:
The bottom line is Canikon are both losing potential revenue by not having a viable mirrorless offering. I haven't checked the exact $$$, but it is not chump change. Especially in a time of declining revenues for Canikon.
As of today, out of the interchangeable lens camera market, Canikon is losing out 25% of that share to mirrorless. This is at a time when they lost their P&S market to cellphones.
I'm not sure that conclusion follows from the marketshare numbers. Canon and Nikon never had 100% DSLR marketshare either.
Also, it's not the case that Nikon and Canon haven't responded in some way. Nikon has shifted their product mix to more premium products, for example.
p.5 #16 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
And Sony is losing 75% market opportunities by not being in the DSLR world.
So then you finally have come around that by not being in the mirrorless camera market in any big way, Canikon is losing out on 25% revenue...good you finally see it that way.
Sony has come from basically zero to something quite substantial in revenue in short order. Let's see how the future unfolds.
Ones revenues are declining year over year...another's is increasing.
p.5 #17 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Other than looking at the charts of mirrorless sales, it would be quite interesting to see how others likely profit from the mirrorless market. I think on Cosina for example which manufactures smaller sized M-mount MF lenses which can be used on mirrorless systems. Before mirrorless took off, they could only get those lenses sold to Leica M camera users. That Cosina updates more of their M mount lenses already speaks for itself that a trend is definitely there.
Zeiss might have some interesting story to tell, too - I am sure they make good money from being part of the FE lens designs and with the new Batis plus Loxia lenses. That Tamron announced just a few days ago that they consider making lenses for the E-mount, is also a another sign for the mirrorless trend.
When somebody gains more market share, someone else loses. No surprise that we see since a while continuous rebates for Canon EF lenses for example.
p.5 #18 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
chez wrote:
So then you finally have come around that by not being in the mirrorless camera market in any big way, Canikon is losing out on 25% revenue...good you finally see it that way.
Sony has come from basically zero to something quite substantial in revenue in short order. Let's see how the future unfolds.
Ones revenues are declining year over year...another's is increasing.
You keep throwing around numbers and making totally inappropriate interpretations. I guess you didn't see the sarcasm in my post about 75% lost by Sony. Canon and Nikon never had 100% market share. You say losing out on 25% revenue, that is clearly BS since you have no sales data that shows revenue. All the stats discussed here are unit sales, not revenue. You can't pull info from all sorts of different places and pull random conclusions out of nowhere. What does 'basically zero' mean, what are the stats on the last 15yrs of camera sales (since digital came along)?
Fact is that mirrorless sales have stabilized and don't appear to be increasing. You're right, let's see what the future holds. People here say we have less than 2 years to still buy a DSLR.
p.5 #19 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
You keep throwing around numbers and making totally inappropriate interpretations. I guess you didn't see the sarcasm in my post about 75% lost by Sony. Canon and Nikon never had 100% market share. You say losing out on 25% revenue, that is clearly BS since you have no sales data that shows revenue. All the stats discussed here are unit sales, not revenue. You can't pull info from all sorts of different places and pull random conclusions out of nowhere. What does 'basically zero' mean, what are the stats on the last 15yrs of camera sales (since digital came along)?
Fact is that mirrorless sales have stabilized and don't appear to be increasing. You're right, let's see what the future holds. People here say we have less than 2 years to still buy a DSLR. ...Show more →
Since you seem to be incapable of doing your own research, here are the sales stats for this year.
Total interchangeable lens camera sales: 338,401,668
Total DSLR sales: 261,685,199
Total mirrorless sales: 76,716,469
You do the math. Mirrorless sales is roughly 23% of all interchangeable lens camera sales.
Fact is mirrorless sales stabilized...DSLR sales still in free fall.
p.5 #20 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
chez wrote:
Since you seem to be incapable of doing your own research, here are the sales stats for this year.
Total interchangeable lens camera sales: 338,401,668
Total DSLR sales: 261,685,199
Total mirrorless sales: 76,716,469
You do the math. Mirrorless sales is roughly 23% of all interchangeable lens camera sales.
Fact is mirrorless sales stabilized...DSLR sales still in free fall.
Thanks buddy. What does 'free fall' mean? Why don't you support Sony branching into the larger part of the DSLR market with different camera models? You seem to think it is good for them to stay in only one area. Here you seem to be advocating that canon and Nikon need to push for 100% market share. Not sure I'm following your thinking here.
And you still haven't demonstrated how Sony has taken 25% revenue out of canon/Nikon bank account.
