philip_pj
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 p.3 #5 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market..... | |
well, today there is this:
http://www.sonyalpharumors.com/sony-is-strongly-growing-in-the-us-camera-market/
And plenty of anecdotal information supports it - Zeiss even made a PR release video of the Milvis lenses - on a Sony a7rII, over at their FB page: Sept 15. See it here:
https://www.facebook.com/carlzeisslenses
CZ are actually emphasising the flexibility of using these very heavy lenses on several 'platforms' - code for Sony a7. Sony of course are backing out of A mount and herding the 'crop cats' into FF as fast as is humanly possible. Sony can now sell a full-fledged MILC for DSLR prices, and sell large numbers of them.
I've always felt C/N would struggle with the unruly mob of committed DSLR users, who will feel abandoned if/when they do make the move to MILC. One things is certain - to compete, they will need to make a *full frame* MILC, to avoid the niche 'toy camera' label, down there duking it out with Fuji and Olympus in an ever-shrinking sector.
The window of opportunity is now closing on them however; or put another way, the quality they need for a new MILC is going up fast, thanks to Sony. Sony has the next raft of new lenses around the corner, Zeiss have Batis and Loxia seemingly on perpetual back order, the latest from both are the very antithesis of all but two Milvis - new, high tech, mostly light/small, very appealing and quite affordable.
Can C/N produce an equivalent range of new lenses, or would they simply try to sell the faithful on an EVF mirrorless built around the FFD of F/EF lenses, almost all of which are very large and very heavy, and force the camera body to be large? People, en masse, clearly want small/light these days, unless there is a very good reason not to do so.
New FF lenses would be a massive commitment, taking years. Besides the psychology of user angst ('my system suddenly looks old'), their biggest problem is inertia - not just market inertia, but their current solutions in IS/VR, AF systems. Sony is quickly covering a lot of key bases in a still small camera: IBIS, silent modes, high ISO, video, EVF aids, MILC simplicity, finely balanced lenses (size vs IQ), now wrapped around a Sony-only flagship sensor. So it is a package deal from them now, one that may be very hard to match in the short term. They are building momentum and are running very hard, six models in two years, each one a clear step up.
In the shoes of Canon, I really don't know what I would do. Paradigm shifts tend to do that to dominant players - they upset the apple cart. As soon as they hypothetically make a great FF MILC, what happens to the cash cow of DSLR sales then? It may become a fading legacy 'pro only' system overnight, rather like A mount but on a huge scale. They might do better upping their sensor tech and bolstering the top end, which is where Zeiss see the future of DSLRs. But that might be changing now too, see above.
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What's nice about the EVF is WYSIWYG. If you are trying to position the sun in a particular spot, for example, you will get a true and accurate feedback of how the image will look on your LCD before you release the shutter. With an OVF you will be second-guessing the final result.
