p.14 #1 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
tsdevine wrote:
The last DSLR I bought was a 5D II, I've bought 2 mirrorless cameras since then. I know several people who have bought mirrorless cameras and have sold their DSLRs. I know people who are considering either adding a mirrorless camera and are even considering selling their DSLR. I would not marginalize this and assume the majority would have bought a P&S or nothing.
In any event, no one is going change each other's mind as there is no real way to "prove" this. But I personally know of no one who has bought a mirrorless camera in lieu of a P&S, and I know quite a few that have in lieu of a DSLR.
I think people are seeing to much black and white here, I've certainly never doubted that mirrorless has taken sales from DSLR. I wouldn't say a majority would bypass mirrorless and get a P&S, but it certainly accounts for some percentage of sales 'lost' to mirrorless. Personally, I doubt I'll add a mirrorless camera or sell my DSLR, there just doesn't seem to be an upside for my needs. My next camera will almost certainly be an rx100 or g7x since they are small enough to carry and have better IQ than a cell phone. Mirrorless just isn't small enough. I'm more likely to buy a second DSLR before I switch to a new camera system with a mirrorless option. Now, if a used a7 with metabones showed up locally for $500, I'd maybe pick that up, but the used market doesn't add to market share unless the seller bought another mirrorless camera to replace what they sold.
What is the entry point to interchangeable lens cameras, in our current market? Most comments here are referring to people switching from DSLR to mirrorless. That upgrade path would necessarily limit the future market share of mirrorless if everyone required a DSLR before upgrading to mirrorless. So, how does someone without an ILC view the market options when they look online, go to a store or inquire with friends? Many here have said that targeting P&S market wasn't effective for mirrorless companies, how is targeting DSLR users sustainable as a long term solution if you can't get people to enter the market with your product?
p.14 #2 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Deep sigh.
There's a very good reason I quoted actual NUMBERS of average daily Flickr users of cameras, to illustrate the point of the large NUMBERS of legacy CaNikon dslrs in the wild and the much smaller NUMBERS of the leading mirrorless manufacturer. I may be wrong, but AFAIK Flickr is the only website that breaks down camera users by manufacturer and model. The Flickr community is represented by hundreds of thousands if not millions of active photographers across the globe, so it might provide a true representation of the industry/market.
The Flickr downward trending graph of Top 5 Canon Cameras over the last year, does appear to underpin your fanboy agenda, unfortunately, you really need to sit back, open the other eye and reflect on what '% OF MEMBERS' actually means.
Here's a hint - Is there evidence for Flickr growing its membership? Are those new members owners of mirrorless cameras or cameraphones? Does Flickr offer uploads of original sized image files and 1TB of storage space free? Is Flickr deeply embedded into smartphone connectivity?
galenapass wrote:
Here is another interesting stat from the same source -
A trend of consistently lower usage, over the last year for the top 5 Canon models used on Flickr. No one is saying that RIGHT now mirrorless is taking over, but the thesis has been that there is a trend: lower DSLR sales, shipping and Flickr usage, vs. flat to increasing numbers for mirrorless.
I have also attached a metaphor that I think is meaningful...
p.14 #3 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Jon Tainton wrote:
Deep sigh.
There's a very good reason I quoted actual NUMBERS of average daily Flickr users of cameras, to illustrate the point of the large NUMBERS of legacy CaNikon dslrs in the wild and the much smaller NUMBERS of the leading mirrorless manufacturer. I may be wrong, but AFAIK Flickr is the only website that breaks down camera users by manufacturer and model. The Flickr community is represented by hundreds of thousands if not millions of active photographers across the globe, so it might provide a true representation of the industry/market.
The Flickr downward trending graph of Top 5 Canon Cameras over the last year, does appear to underpin your fanboy agenda, unfortunately, you really need to sit back, open the other eye and reflect on what '% OF MEMBERS' actually means.
Here's a hint - Is there evidence for Flickr growing its membership? Are those new members owners of mirrorless cameras or cameraphones? Does Flickr offer uploads of original sized image files and 1TB of storage space free? Is Flickr deeply embedded into smartphone connectivity?
...Show more →
The flickr number may just show that the cameras being used, even if not current models, have image quality sufficient to satisfy the users. Why buy a new camera, if the one you have works well for you? I think that question explains why there is a slowdown in the ILC market right now.
Sep 23, 2015 at 08:16 AM
Steve Spencer Online • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: On
p.14 #4 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
bjornthun wrote:
The flickr number may just show that the cameras being used, even if not current models, have image quality sufficient to satisfy the users. Why buy a new camera, if the one you have works well for you? I think that question explains why there is a slowdown in the ILC market right now.
I also think that Jon's data about old camera usage can be skewed by what people post rather than what they are using right now. For example, if I were to join Flickr, which I haven't, I would post images from a Canon 350D, 20D, 50D, 5D (classic), 5D MKII, and A7 Mk II. I haven't shot with anything but the last two cameras for about 3 years. Still I think it would look to Flikr as if I was using all these camera now. If this is how Flikr's numbers work, then of course numbers for old cameras are greatly skewed by new people signing up and people posting old pictures. Said another way, just because some one posts a picture it doesn't mean they took that picture recently. I don't think the data is useful for the purpose for which Jon is trying to use it.
p.14 #5 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
mawz wrote:
I'm speaking to the rate of current introductions specifically. Panasonic has only introduced consumer lenses this year.
What do introductions have to do with them "lagging"? They already had the pro lenses Olympus just got to market. If anything, Olympus would be "lagging", if you choose such a word, because they didn't have a 24-200 2.8 (equivalent) for almost 2 years, while panasonic produced the same (pro) range with OIS.
That is the definition of lagging.
mawz wrote:
Additionally, with 2 exceptions (the 25/1.4 and the 42.5/1.2) their entire lens lineup generally lags Olympus in perceived quality. Olympus, with their Pro line and the 12, 60 & 75 primes pretty much is the de facto lens quality leader in m43.
I tend to disagree. The 12 2.0 was shot down by Ctein at "The Online Photographer", the 42.5 1.7 panasonic is regarded as being optically better than the 45mm 1.8, and the 60 macro is not as good as the 45mm leica (which admittedly is almost 30% more), but has built in OIS. The 75mm is a unique lens, but so is the Nocticron and the new 100-400.
Of course, perhaps we can both agree it is good to have choices.
mawz wrote:
Olympus certainly could do a world-class f1.2 lens. Fuji certainly has with a fraction of the resources or design experience of Olympus (Panasonic also has a mere fraction of Olympus's design experience).
Coulda woulda shoulda.
Fraction of design experience? But they are the ones with the f1.2 lenses already at market. If what you said made any sense wouldn't Olympus have the faster better lenses than either of those companies, given the lineage of camera making and design, as you say? Panasonic rapidly introduced a 1.4 50mm equivalent standard for the system, and Olympus just got around last year to producing one, and theirs was a stop slower. There is zero evidence that Olympus is leading m43 forward, and a heck of a lot more evidence they are playing catchup to panasonic (who now has OIS and IBIS). Olympus, scared Panasonic has the advantage, has recently gone back to the drawing board with their lenses to add OIS, at least that is the rumor... hardly an indicator they are leading.
At this point it's just as likely Olympus will cease to produce cameras as it is they produce a 1.2 or greater aperture lens, sadly.
p.14 #6 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Steve Spencer wrote:
I also think that Jon's data about old camera usage can be skewed by what people post rather than what they are using right now. For example, if I were to join Flickr, which I haven't, I would post images from a Canon 350D, 20D, 50D, 5D (classic), 5D MKII, and A7 Mk II. I haven't shot with anything but the last two cameras for about 3 years. Still I think it would look to Flikr as if I was using all these camera now. If this is how Flikr's numbers work, then of course numbers for old cameras are greatly skewed by new people signing up and people posting old pictures. Said another way, just because some one posts a picture it doesn't mean they took that picture recently. I don't think the data is useful for the purpose for which Jon is trying to use it....Show more →
I agree. The shipping numbers I posted from CIPA, I think, are fairly solid. ~ 25% of all interchangeable-lens-camera shipments are mirrorless. That much is clear. While my 12 year old found Jon's dog humping video/analogy humorous, I don't think it is particularity insightful or reflects what is really happening now.
The Flickr numbers mean something, but it is not current consumer demand.
p.14 #7 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
galenapass wrote:
I agree. The shipping numbers I posted from CIPA, I think, are fairly solid. ~ 25% of all interchangeable-lens-camera shipments are mirrorless. That much is clear. While my 12 year old found Jon's dog humping video/analogy humorous, I don't think it is particularity insightful or reflects what is really happening now.
The Flickr numbers mean something, but it is not current consumer demand.
So Flickr showing that users are uploading millions upon millions of iPhone shot photos does not indicate that iPhone sales are through the roof?
p.14 #8 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
We know that they are. We also know that with a few finger strokes a picture can be uploaded to Flickr, which is a LOT faster than the process from a standard camera. What I am saying is that there are more dynamics happening on Flickr than an accurate reflection of sales. No one is arguing that cell phones are not increasing in sales and supplanting cameras.
p.14 #9 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
galenapass wrote:
We know that they are. We also know that with a few finger strokes a picture can be uploaded to Flickr, which is a LOT faster than the process from a standard camera. What I am saying is that there are more dynamics happening on Flickr than an accurate reflection of sales. No one is arguing that cell phones are not increasing in sales and supplanting cameras.
Yes, you are right in that there is more than one dynamic at work. Unfortunately, all the dynamics favor the smart phone, massively.
p.14 #10 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Steve, you make a valid point and those are no doubt comforting thoughts
However, when viewing an image on Flickr it displays the date taken OR the date uploaded if no exif is attached. A brief sampling of some Flickr legacy dslr groups indicates active users of legacy dslrs AND historic images uploaded. Bear in mind it isn't mandatory to post images to groups and many members don't. So, given that Flickr is aware of when an image is taken, I would expect Flickr's active user data to filter historic images and represent current active users of cameras.
As bjorthun noted there appear a substantial number of flickr photographers whose sufficiency needs for digital capture was met some while ago.
OT but I used the dslr models from the Recommended Digital Camera List of a global stock image agency
There's a very good reason I quoted actual NUMBERS of average daily Flickr users of cameras, to illustrate the point of the large NUMBERS of legacy CaNikon dslrs in the wild and the much smaller NUMBERS of the leading mirrorless manufacturer. I may be wrong, but AFAIK Flickr is the only website that breaks down camera users by manufacturer and model. The Flickr community is represented by hundreds of thousands if not millions of active photographers across the globe, so it might provide a true representation of the industry/market.
The Flickr downward trending graph of Top 5 Canon Cameras over the last year, does appear to underpin your fanboy agenda, unfortunately, you really need to sit back, open the other eye and reflect on what '% OF MEMBERS' actually means.
Here's a hint - Is there evidence for Flickr growing its membership? Are those new members owners of mirrorless cameras or cameraphones? Does Flickr offer uploads of original sized image files and 1TB of storage space free? Is Flickr deeply embedded into smartphone connectivity?
I don't have a dog in this fight (I don't use any of the major digi camera brands) but the problem I have with reports given in percentages is that it does not say much unless you also have actual units sold. It's a way to make things look better than they are.
42% growth YTD for the quarter? Great! But how many were sold? If I only sold 10 cameras, and then sold 14, that is a 40% growth. But I still only sold 14.
p.14 #13 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Sep 26, 2015 at 10:15 AM
savingspaces Offline • • • • [X]
p.14 #14 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
jctriguy wrote:
, they absolutely have different needs and wants.
Do you actually have any facts to support your silly statement?
Now I see why you can't agree with what Ches is saying.
How do you come up with such incorrect "opinions"? Wow.
I feel like I am in the twilight zone when I read your posts in this thread.
I have a feeling that you are not interested in reality, but yours isn't.
The "AVERAGE" guy/gal who purchases either a dslr or mirrorless have the very same needs/wants.
They want to take the best quality pictures possible. And to even think that CANON/NIKON are not loosing $$$ with every sale that goes to a M4/3, Fuji or sony camera instead? See what I am saying? I can't even wrap my mind around that. Yes, 25% may not be the exact figure, but that is so besides the point.
p.14 #15 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Desmolicious wrote:
I don't have a dog in this fight (I don't use any of the major digi camera brands) but the problem I have with reports given in percentages is that it does not say much unless you also have actual units sold. It's a way to make things look better than they are.
42% growth YTD for the quarter? Great! But how many were sold? If I only sold 10 cameras, and then sold 14, that is a 40% growth. But I still only sold 14.
I totally agree. That is why the CIPA numbers are so interesting. The actual numbers are there for anyone to look at on the CIPA website. However, as I have said many times, CIPA is only shipping numbers and sales takes into account a lot of other factors, including price. But, as a percent (there is the term again) mirrorless accounts for ~ 25% of all interchangeable lens cameras shipped worldwide.
If mirrorless camera sales are up 42% and shipping is only up 5%, then either the sales numbers are wrong, or what we are looking at is a customer that is paying more for higher end equipment. Since a number of manufactures have already stated that it is the higher end equipment that is selling well, I tend to think that is what we are seeing. However, this is just an assumption on my part.
We are starting to see some positive numbers for mirrorless and, I think, hints that camera purchasing is beginning to change. In this thread we have seen the full gamut of responses, anywhere from those that just hate change, to those that embrace it fully and want to see it happen. That is life. I have some friends that will absolutely not text, and those who use it regularly. My kids, of course, text all the time. That is why I thought it was interesting to see the age group for first time buyers of mirrorless. They tend to be younger, and younger people as a group accept newer things better than us oldsters (as a group).
p.14 #16 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Didn't read the whole thread, but I wouldn't bet that mirror less as a whole is killing it. Unless we see the numbers broken out for each manufacturers, I would only say mirror less gets a big bump whenever a hot new camera is released. Since Sony is a big part of the mirror less pie and they release very often, this bump in mirror less might be explained. It has been awhile since Fuji and Olympus released a hugely hyped camera. The x-t1 and e-m1 have been out for quite awhile.
On the topic title, I really don't care if Canon and Nikon releases or not. I would like to see them do it, but at this point, we have a LOT of choices in mirror less, and I'm more than pleased.
p.14 #18 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
Desmolicious wrote:
I don't have a dog in this fight (I don't use any of the major digi camera brands) but the problem I have with reports given in percentages is that it does not say much unless you also have actual units sold. It's a way to make things look better than they are.
42% growth YTD for the quarter? Great! But how many were sold? If I only sold 10 cameras, and then sold 14, that is a 40% growth. But I still only sold 14.
Well at the very least Sony is in position to show us a pretty report and have it be at least believable since it's pretty clear that they are hot right now and there is quite a bit of interest any way you want to measure it. What does that translate to in statistics or overall impact? I don't think any of us knows but it won't matter if they just keep doing what they're doing.
p.14 #20 · CaNikon will have to enter the mirrorless market.....
RobCD wrote:
Well at the very least Sony is in position to show us a pretty report and have it be at least believable since it's pretty clear that they are hot right now and there is quite a bit of interest any way you want to measure it. What does that translate to in statistics or overall impact? I don't think any of us knows but it won't matter if they just keep doing what they're doing.
I think there's enough indicators that tells me that Sony's strategy and execution is successful beyond any previous effort.
