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Archive 2013 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

snapsy
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p.6 #1 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

trenchmonkey wrote:
Really?!

Please post some BIF/sports samples, Adam.

E-M5 + 35-100mm:
http://horshack.smugmug.com/Other/California/i-cFkF33G/0/XL/california_10-XL.jpg

Dec 31, 2013 at 10:38 AM

leftcoastlefty
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p.6 #2 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

mawz wrote:
Folks, we're seeing a repeat of the cycle that's happened several times before. It happened in the late 70's/early 80's when the original AE SLR boom bottomed out once P&S's got halfway decent, and in the mid-90's when the AF SLR boom petered out and AF P&S's and 1-hour labs got halfway decent. It probably happened a couple times before those as well.

There's always a boom-bust cycle in the photography market. Something new & noteworthy shows up in the serious amateur space (AE, AF, Digital), there's a major boom. The public jumps in because it suddenly makes serious cameras better...Show more →

I respectfully disagree. I've felt for years that consumer technology has plateaued, and it is getting more and more obvious all the time. Basically, we have ran out of things to invent. Phones, TVs, game consoles, software (Photoshop), cameras, computers, and many other technologies haven't improved much in years. I have a Macbook Pro from 2008, an iPhone 4, an xBox 360 and a 5D Mark II that are all old but running great. There's no compelling reason to upgrade. I will have to get a new iPhone soon, but only because the battery is dying.

Sure, there will be minor incremental improvements and designers have a knack for putting fresh lipstick on the pig, but there won't be a new wave of drastic revolution in technology like we saw between 1995 and 2005. I see growth in alternative energy, transportation and healthcare, but not in consumer technology.

Dec 31, 2013 at 10:44 AM

Amrit
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p.6 #3 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

sflxn wrote:
Years of growth in digital photography has lulled camera makers and enthusiasts into believing the growth was due to a hunger for higher image quality. For the general public, it was never about increasing image quality. It was always about convenience and cost. Mirrorless is failing, P&S is failing, and DSLRs are failing. The empirical data is there. No need to come up with reasons why we enthusiasts believe mirrorless isn't catching on. The priorities of enthusiasts and those of the general public are very different.

In 4 years, the market for interchangeable lens systems will likely be 50% what it...Show more →

Good point.

Income is finite, at least for the vast majority of the world population. An iPhone 5s will cost 800 euro's, the same price as a Nikon D7100. Add a subscription for the iPhone and a lens for the Nikon and the price will still be similar. Now suppose you can't have both....

Lot's of companies are trying to get a share of that same finite income: cellphone companies, camera company's, restaurants, touroperators, brothels, whatever, and you can't have all and you will have tot prioratize.

The sense of 'good enough' makes sense tot me, it's quite often just as good as it gets. When the entire camera industry is losing market share/profit it seems tot me they are losing it because other industries are delivering goods and services which are higher on the priority list, and maybe the camera makers just can't help it.

Dec 31, 2013 at 12:22 PM

itai195
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p.6 #4 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

leftcoastlefty wrote:
Sure, there will be minor incremental improvements and designers have a knack for putting fresh lipstick on the pig, but there won't be a new wave of drastic revolution in technology like we saw between 1995 and 2005. I see growth in alternative energy, transportation and healthcare, but not in consumer technology.

This is an interesting choice of year range, as I feel there has been as much if not more interesting technological progress since 2005 than between 1995 and 2005. Would you willingly go back to using a cell phone from 2005? Or a digital camera? It's not just hardware, software has gotten much more reliable and massively expanded its influence as well.

Technology moves in short bursts of innovation and disruption, followed by longer periods of incremental progress. Incremental progress does add up to significant gains over time - compare an iPhone 5s or a D800 to the original iPhone or D200 - but it doesn't get much attention. I don't think it's technology slowing down that is the issue in the camera market, it's the fact that the lower end and middle of the market have been disrupted by a new technology - smartphones - that offers a superior solution for most people.

I don't think we've seen what this disruption means for the higher end of the market yet. I don't expect any of the traditional camera makers to lead the charge, though. One major shift in the technology landscape since 2005 is the growing primacy of software over hardware, and none of the traditional camera makers are competent software companies. My A7 is the first camera I've used that can upload directly to social media over wifi. It's still a pretty terrible user experience. The camera interface stinks in all sorts of ways - distance scales that are inaccurate, disorganized menus, histograms not based on raw data, artificially limited max shutter speed at 30s, etc. Sony isn't alone by any means, all the camera makers stink at this stuff.

Dec 31, 2013 at 01:53 PM

slungu
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p.6 #5 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

itai195 wrote:
Would you willingly go back to using a cell phone from 2005? Or a digital camera? It's not just hardware, software has gotten much more reliable and massively expanded its influence as well.

Well, just because you asked : I am using such a phone and have no problems with it. Fact is it is doing what it is supposed : to phone. It is not uploading anything to facebook, but that is no problem for two reasons : one is the fact that I have enough computers and laptops around me at work and at home and second because I do not upload stuff to facebook. I hardly see any reason in letting the world at any moment what I am doing or what I am seeing. And I also doubt the fact that we have so many great images around us all the time, or that we are in the mood to capture them. So I rather see FB as garbage collector rather than something worth looking at. But that's just me.

Dec 31, 2013 at 02:46 PM

mike reid
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p.6 #6 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

I should add here that I show people my photos taken with my 5D2 and various Zeiss primes on my iPhone and typically they assume I took them with my iPhone, since that's what I'm showing them on.....uh no

Dec 31, 2013 at 03:00 PM

zephoto
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p.6 #7 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

mike reid wrote:
I should add here that I show people my photos taken with my 5D2 and various Zeiss primes on my iPhone and typically they assume I took them with my iPhone, since that's what I'm showing them on.....uh no

Yeah I can't stand that when people are like "wow your cell phone takes real nice pictures" and it's clearly a full frame shot to me and anyone with an eye.

Dec 31, 2013 at 03:02 PM

Tariq Gibran
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p.6 #8 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

slungu wrote:
...and second because I do not upload stuff to facebook. I hardly see any reason in letting the world at any moment what I am doing or what I am seeing.

Not to mention that some folks don't really care to grant Facebook unlimited, royalty-free use of their content:

"For content that is covered by intellectual property rights, like photos and videos (IP content), you specifically give us the following permission, subject to your privacy and application settings: you grant us a non-exclusive, transferable, sub-licensable, royalty-free, worldwide license to use any IP content that you post on or in connection with Facebook (IP License). This IP License ends when you delete your IP content or your account unless your content has been shared with others, and they have not deleted it."

https://www.facebook.com/legal/terms

Dec 31, 2013 at 03:11 PM

secondclaw
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p.6 #9 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

Funny ... I have to always say - no it wasn't taken with the phone

Dec 31, 2013 at 03:11 PM

Spyro P.
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p.6 #10 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

Tariq Gibran wrote:
Not to mention that some folks don't really care to grant Facebook unlimited, royalty-free use of their content:

"For content that is covered by intellectual property rights, like photos and videos (IP content), you specifically give us the following permission, subject to your privacy and application settings: you grant us a non-exclusive, transferable, sub-licensable, royalty-free, worldwide license to use any IP content that you post on or in connection with Facebook (IP License). This IP License ends when you delete your IP content or your account unless your content has been shared with others, and they have not deleted it."

https://www.facebook.com/legal/terms

Dec 31, 2013 at 09:01 PM

jcolwell
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p.6 #11 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

Dec 31, 2013 at 09:19 PM

jcolwell
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p.6 #12 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

snapsy wrote:
E-M5 + 35-100mm:
http://horshack.smugmug.com/Other/California/i-cFkF33G/0/XL/california_10-XL.jpg

Come on. You could take that photo with a Kodak Brownie!

Here's what you can do with a real birding lens...

Dec 31, 2013 at 09:27 PM

MarcG19
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p.6 #13 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

trenchmonkey wrote:
Really?!

Please post some BIF/sports samples, Adam.

TM, I would say that it focuses fast with good native lenses.....in S-AF. Faster than the D7000, D2x you saw me with, or the 7D I've also used. Don't know how it compares to a D3/4/1Dmkiv.

For C-AF, as far as I've heard (yet to try), it's only OK if you can get the largish AF square to cover most of the subject. I find it useless so far with C-AF BIF, though I'm trying different lens combos. Some people are reporting decent results judiciously using S-AF.

As far as the mirrorless prognosis, Sony, Olympus, Panasonic, and Fujifilm's other business divisions have subsidized interchangeable lens cameras for many years, IIRC. I don't see any reason for that to change, as consumer still cameras range from minority to minimal business segments for any of those companies. (largest for Olympus, but even then comparatively small, and high end mirrorless profitability is decent). Cameras have technology and market spin-off effects for other segments of those companies' business, corporate Japan is layoff/shutdown averse, credit is really cheap, and I think most of them are waiting for the economy to really pick up (which it might this year).

Since I'm told the Japanese government is giving overcapacity industries (i.e. just about every business sector) incentives to consolidate, I'd imagine some manufacturing capability will go that way (43 rumors yesterday reported some of Panny's semiconductor fab ops are being consolidated with another's in a joint venture).

Dec 31, 2013 at 11:47 PM

philip_pj
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p.6 #14 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

It's great that fewer consumers now believe they are photographers ands settle for crap phones, as today's cameras are amazing compared to those of just a few years back, mirrorless is at the forefront of all this of course, as the DSLRs hang on to most of the larger market.

Storage has ceased to be an issue, computers are blindlingly fast and very cheap, tablets are cheap, SD cards are tiny fast and capacious, connectivity is growing all over, TV tech is fantastic, BluRay ditto. PS is amazing software, and there are at least 5-6 top notch raw converters, monitors are fabulous.

Markets adjust, that is what they do. So less folks want a camera, we will have more of the best things for ourselves, because makers can target advanced users rather than neophytes who demand a dumbed down product and fast turnaround time over quality! Good photography was never really for the masses, except for the more advanced of them to be consumers of it.

It's a odd situation, we have all this amazing technology, none of which existed just 10 short years ago, but the mood is so down, so glass half empty, in spite of it all. A kind of ennui.

What we lack generally is great content and creative motivation. The top movies of 2013 were tired rehashed concepts, almost all sequels like Fast and Furious 6, the big studios are losing the plot, quite literally, even accepting that the movie-going demographic is mostly 18-24 year old males, not the most aesthetically inclined of age groups.

TV is doing much better, with the better series showing what creativity and strong character-driven content can do. Breaking Bad, Justified, Homeland, Dexter, those Duck guys, plus the more mainstream appeal fantasy series.

You see the parallel with photography? Consumers settle for second best, just unthinkingly snap off something poor and send it to their friends to look, laugh and forget, popcorn imagery...but enthusiasts have all they need to fully realise their own creativity, on any budget.

My 'pig' (a7r) needs no lipstick - like the tiny Deathstalker Scorpion, it's all business.

Jan 01, 2014 at 01:53 AM

itai195
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p.6 #15 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

slungu wrote:
But that's just me.

That's cool. I'm not arguing personal preferences here. After all, I'm sure a few people bought Hasselblad Lunars too.

Jan 01, 2014 at 02:04 AM

rattymouse
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p.6 #16 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

itai195 wrote:
The entire market is at a crossroads. The DSLR makers may still be managing to hold onto profits, but the future of those profits is also questionable. Fuji et al are grasping at mirrorless because otherwise they'd basically be out of the camera business by now I think there is a bit of a battle of attrition going on now, and the likeliest companies to survive are those who can afford to subsidize their camera business longer than the other guys.

That's called a pyrrhic victory.

Jan 01, 2014 at 04:57 AM

rattymouse
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p.6 #17 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

slungu wrote:
Somebody seems to fail to remember that the mirrorless players are the ones that missed the start on the transition from SLR to DSLR.

Nope. Fujifilm was one of the first DSLR makers. Up to the S2 Pro, Fuji's SLR's were consistently rated higher than Canon's and Nikon's.

Jan 01, 2014 at 04:59 AM

carstenw
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p.6 #18 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

philip_pj wrote:
It's great that fewer consumers now believe they are photographers ands settle for crap phones

I don't think this is the case. The rate of purchase has slowed down, but the DSLR owners still have their DSLRs. In other words, the market is the same size, but growth and turnover have slowed.

Jan 01, 2014 at 05:52 AM

sflxn
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p.6 #19 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

MarcG19 wrote:
As far as the mirrorless prognosis, Sony, Olympus, Panasonic, and Fujifilm's other business divisions have subsidized interchangeable lens cameras for many years, IIRC. I don't see any reason for that to change, as consumer still cameras range from minority to minimal business segments for any of those companies. (largest for Olympus, but even then comparatively small, and high end mirrorless profitability is decent). Cameras have technology and market spin-off effects for other segments of those companies' business, corporate Japan is layoff/shutdown averse, credit is really cheap, and I think most of them are waiting for the economy to really pick...Show more →

Their stockholders may not have the same opinion as you, and their's are the only opinions that matters. This business model of accepting losses to gain marketshare is one of the reason so many large Japanese companies are financially sick. It's fine for a few years, but some of them continue the practice for so long, they don't know what else to do. Less we forget Olympus almost went out of business and execs went to jail for trying to cover up all the losses.

The reason why many of these flunkies can never overtake Canon and Nikon is because DsLRs are really good at almost everything at the cost of size and weight. The other reason is the top 2 have very healthy financial discipline that allowed them to amass marketshare and acquire a huge advantage in economy of scale.

Innovations don't always win, but I think it depends on the right innovation and the enormity of the disruption. Mirrorless and small lenses was a small disruption. A programmable, connected camera in everyone's pocket is a seismic disruption. The mirrorless disruption was not big enough to overtake DSLRs. Sure, size and weight are important to many of us, but it does nothing to solve many of the problems that DSLRs solved years ago. Mirrorless does not replace DSLRs for most photographic needs and is being eaten alive by a bigger disruption.

The financial problems and the small disruption size of mirrorless is why I don't think m43 and Fuji will survive consolidation. I still think Sony can survive this consolidation. They appear to have taken #1 position in North America and China in mirrorless. I also think FF gives the E mount a halo that the others cannot match, and it's probably too late for a new FF mirrorless mount.

Jan 01, 2014 at 02:16 PM

sirimiri
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p.6 #20 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

philip_pj wrote:
...enthusiasts have all they need to fully realise their own creativity, on any budget.

I absolutely agree, the market has brought us both image capture and image manipulation tools that most anybody can pay the freight for, and it's a great creative leveller.

(and, Happy New Year to all)

Jan 01, 2014 at 02:39 PM

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