JonPB
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 p.7 #5 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless | |
[My apologies for the length and incoherence of this rant. It is a new year, and I feel good, so my editing might not be up to par.]
Personally, I think it is all to the good. More people taking pictures means that more people have the opportunity to experience photography and adopt it as a hobby or develop it into a profession, which means that the industry as a whole will continue to make available the tools I need to continue my hobby.
More image sharing means more meritocracy among the top photographers, and more opportunities for the rest of us to learn from them. There have always been very few people with both a taste for and the financial means to buy fine art, and far more people who want to sell than who want to buy, so the effect on people who want to sell their photographs may be anecdotally poor but is likely no different from the plight of all artists in the rest of human history. But if a client has an eye for good photos, it is easier than ever for them to compare portfolios and put their money where the talent is, which is better for those of us who think our skills differentiate us from the pack.
Technologically speaking, the Lumia 1020 is posed at the diffraction limit of an f/2.2 lens on a small sensor. As that limit is capable of capturing an 8K resolution, I cannot see any reason to disparage the advance of compact imaging devices. However, that format of device can never provide a depth of field much shallower than a D800 or A7r using a lens at f/8. As such, while landscape photographers may find themselves drawn to tiny sensors, which are more easily taken out to the landscape in the first place, the people photographers--and the vast majority of pictures taken are of people--may come to see the need for larger sensored systems. A very low proportion of people who shoot with cameraphones will come to that conclusion, just like a very low proportion of people who bought a Canon Rebel will ever shoot through anything other than the kit lens, but more people taking pictures in the first place means more people who want to be able to take "better" pictures than what the default option offers. That might mean better ergonomics on a phone to allow for easier operation, or it might mean better dedicated cameras with larger sensors. Either way, as a consumer of high-end photo products, I win.
If anything, we're seeing the demise of the snapshot as a profit generator. Yes, the market is correcting from the rise of digital cameras, but I think a longer trend that is correcting is the practice of printing every image one took. How many people have hundreds or thousands of 3x5 prints in a box somewhere? I think the practice of printing everything in poor quality, lately transitioned to putting everything online in poor quality, is dying away. I saw a number of photobooks this holiday season, lightly curated collections of photos from the year that people paid to have printed for posterity. Likewise, people aren't posting everything to Facebook, but they're posting only their best shots from an outing. This implies a recognition that some images are better than others and that time/money is being spent to make more images of a higher caliber. These trends serve only to encourage people--again, maybe a small fraction of them, but nonetheless a meaningful portion--to seek out ways to make better images, which can include better kit. Meaning, there's still profit to be made through research, development, marketing and sales of photographic equipment, even if it takes a non-traditional form.
Admittedly, I'm glad I'm not working in the photographic industry right now, for these are indeed "interesting times" in the sense of the curse. But I'm not worried that the tools necessary for my hobby are going to disappear, even if my favorite brands do. We have seen Kodak fall apart, but there are perfectly viable alternatives to those items Kodak no longer sells and we've also seen a legion of new companies like Metabones and Chamonix come around with quite exciting products. While the American economy may or may not flounder, there is a worldwide boom of people entering the middle class and for whom photography will, at some level, be important. I wouldn't place any bets on any particular company, especially when all but the top two seem to be innovating rapidly toward unpredictable booms or busts, but I'm not worried about the industry as a whole--which is what ought to be important to us as consumers.
Cheers,
Jon
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