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Archive 2013 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless

  
 
carstenw
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p.3 #1 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


amplexis wrote:
I think the QX-100/QX-10 will find a market or several markets. the article says that strong sales have surprised Sony the other surprise is that people are using the QX units remotely from their phones and tablets.


Shockingly, Sony seems to have stumbled into the fact that people are incredibly narcissistic. These cameras are *the* selfie cameras.



Dec 30, 2013 at 04:27 AM
darrellc
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p.3 #2 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


I'd argue that most pictures taken in human history have been taken with the intent to share with others, and the workflow to do so with a smartphone is the best it has ever been, by far.

Everyone I know prefers the pics I get with my dSLR or more likely mirrorless cam vs. their cell phones but aren't willing to haul around and learn another device and especially go through the steps to actually get the photos off the camera and shared.

While I'd never use one, I've "sold" a lot of others on the Nikon V1 as a pretty simple and bulletproof way for the non photographer to get much better photos and video than their cellphone with minimal bulk and complexity. I got one for my wife - it is the camera she chooses from many on the rare occassions she wants something more than her iphone. But still a huge hassle for these folk, as they still have to get the photos onto a computer or tablet, which introduces a bunch more complexity, to figure out and do a bunch of steps to get them on Facebook or Instagram or whatever. Versus one click from your camera roll or photo gallery.

I might buy one of the Samsung Android cameras just to play around with - they seem to be the only ones trying to build a commercially viable photography product that tries to solve the sharing workflow problem.

Seems you've ultimately got to get embedded mobile broadband in a camera or seamless integration with your mobile phone and make the sharing workflow really simple if you ever want to make a camera that gets masses to step up from the on device camera in their phone.

I actually find the workflow from my Olympus EM-1 and Sony A7 pretty good, better than the earlier implementations I tried on the RX100m2 and Panasonic GH3. I actually post to Facebook and Flickr now on occassion from the EM-1 (did it this evening) and A7.

And the economies of scale around mobile phones mean we might actually get pretty decent phone cameras eventually anyway.

Edited on Dec 30, 2013 at 04:35 AM · View previous versions



Dec 30, 2013 at 04:27 AM
carstenw
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p.3 #3 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


ReneMurea wrote:
I think Canon and Nikon are at risk even more due to the use of cell phones. Most people using cell phones (for most of their needs) don't make the difference between mirrorless and DSLR's.


One factor is that when you take a camera in your hands in the camera store (or wherever), you don't really feel the weight or bulk as much as after a day of walking around. This may lead people to buying the camera which feels best in the hands, which is still overwhelmingly the DSLRs. For some reason, the mirrorless makers still don't put the same kind of build quality and ergonomics into their cameras as the DSLRs have. Sony tends to make their cameras too small, and fingers are hanging off the bottom. Fuji makes them too light, and the grip is too small. Olympus and Panasonic similarly. Any entry level DSLR feels more substantial and is shaped better.



Dec 30, 2013 at 04:30 AM
carstenw
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p.3 #4 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


darrellc wrote:
I might buy one of the Samsung Android phones just to play around with


Do you mean Samsung Android cameras?



Dec 30, 2013 at 04:32 AM
darrellc
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p.3 #5 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


Carsten - yep, edited... Samsung Android camera, not phone (got one of those already - can't stand the pics once a screen gets over 4 or 5 inches)


Dec 30, 2013 at 04:36 AM
justruss
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p.3 #6 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


Eh, I don't get all the whining about the public's/a relative's/a friend's image quality tastes. To whit:

1. In the vast majority of cases, in my opinion, the technical aspects of a photo are at the bottom of importance.
2. The decadent crap we all post-- including 99% of what's on here, a so-called enthusiast's site-- is just pretty crap (landscapes, "street," etc) without any meaning anyway, and higher quality gear just allows us to make prettier versions of the crap more easily.*
3. Why does every stupid image of someone's kids, yet another sunset/mountainscape/car/beach/etc-- need to be shot with a higher end camera? What's wrong with the smartphone image? Who wants to "buy their memories" from someone else?

Ultimately, I think #3 is the reason-- and I support it. I'd wager that at least half of what's posted on this Website would be just as well produced on an iPhone. I bet 99% of the images here will never get viewed larger than at ~800 pixels height over a lifetime... and only on screen. An iphone-based image of a waterfall that a family hiked near, or of a family's kid the time he found a worm in the sandbox, is going to look just as good in most display mediums, including prints at 8 x 10, as anything they'd produce using any other camera. Compared to the old film SLR, or instant camera the family had... it's going to look much better.

The funny part to me is that I think the argument that the public has bad taste in images is made from some sort of pseudo-artistic/quality standpoint. And yet, I'd call it almost entirely a consumption-based, consumer-driven argument masquerading as a false sense of being better than the Philistine family member who is plenty happy with his iPhone images of his toddler. You think you're happier as a result of having high res, low dof images of your kid vs. his iPhone snaps? You think there's some value to having your family portraits shot with a Zeiss lens and a 5D3/D800 vs. his iPhone snaps? You think your images are more powerful, or tell a stronger story, or will somehow avoid the fate of nearly every image ever made-- viewed a couple times, forgotten, and eventually lost beyond a lifetime and considered meaningless after a generation or two? Naw, you've just bought the decadent consumer marketing BS that having the latest, greatest, highest-resolution gear is anything beyond a pursuit in itself, or that your images are anything besides mediocre snapshots gilded by technicolor coating.

No, in this sense I think the consumer herself is right. She's saying: "Enough. I don't make images thinking I'm the next coming of AA. I don't need to chase the technological dragon. I like having a couple images to post online, or to put in a small frame next to my bed-- and I like the act of taking images when I'm someplace, or being able to periodically show friends what I did last vacation when I take out my phone at the bar. That's good enough. That is all the value I need." She's totally right.

A DSLR is not a Picasso painting to an iPhone's Thomas Kinkade. Most of what's produced by people who think they know what they're doing with a DSLR on enthusiast sites like this IS the Thomas Kinkade. I'd put almost all of what I see here into that category, including most of my stuff. The medium, and the tool, and the technical quality of output does not make us in any way superior.

Somehow the so-called masses have started to figure this out. Photography is mostly a consumerist sport played by folks who think they're somehow cultured.

*That doesn't mean I think I'm holier than thou. I too produce this crap, and I too am overly-attentive to what's new technologically. And this rant-- phew, what a rant!-- isn't directed at anyone... beyond myself, perhaps.



Dec 30, 2013 at 05:02 AM
sflxn
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p.3 #7 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


Years of growth in digital photography has lulled camera makers and enthusiasts into believing the growth was due to a hunger for higher image quality. For the general public, it was never about increasing image quality. It was always about convenience and cost. Mirrorless is failing, P&S is failing, and DSLRs are failing. The empirical data is there. No need to come up with reasons why we enthusiasts believe mirrorless isn't catching on. The priorities of enthusiasts and those of the general public are very different.

In 4 years, the market for interchangeable lens systems will likely be 50% what it is today. I have strong beliefs as to what that will mean for the different players. I think anyone buying gear should think carefully about whether their vendor will be around for as long as they plan on keeping their gear. Wanting your favorite gear maker to survive doesn't guarantee they will.



Dec 30, 2013 at 05:12 AM
slungu
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p.3 #8 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


Well, I for myself don't like these phones, so I don't have one. I guess this is why I still have a camera . I like to have a proper display and not some tiny thing to look at, and walking around with a tablet and taking pictures with it is not ideal either. I must be old, I guess, but I fail to see how people can spend so much money on something that does everything but nothing right, including phone calls and pictures.
But back on topic, I think that the camera industry has had a great time with the start of the digital age and that is not going to come back.I doubt that people got themselves new cams every 3 years in the film age, so other than people very interested in photography, no "normal consumer" would do that with digital cams, at least not since the 300D/DRebel hit the masses. Most of them got a DSLR with one kit lens or maybe a two lens kit and stopped there. And that is the camera for the vacation time, taking pictures all day long is easier with the cell phone now. So the market is shrinking now that the digital hype that was there at the start of the century has calmed down, or has been replaced by the smart phone hysteria. We might as well ask ourselves what the next great thing will be.



Dec 30, 2013 at 05:22 AM
RoySussex
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p.3 #9 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


In one post I noticed the phrase "cheapBose systems..."
Uh? I'm obviously living on a different planet.

Meanwhile on LL Michael Reichmann's "camera of the year" is the Olympus E-M1. As a user of the E-M5 since its release, as well as an extensive Nikon FF system which I seldom use any more, I'm not surprised by this. But then again I'm a European and walk everywhere - except on the days when I have the price of a bus ticket.
Roy



Dec 30, 2013 at 05:32 AM
Spyro P.
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p.3 #10 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless




sirimiri wrote:
Regarding "mirrorless/CSC/EVIL" cameras, the problem isn't the concept; it's the heretofore execution.

And by execution I mean every detail under the sun: either price, size, ergonomics, system maturity, belief that the maker will persevere, etc. etc.

On one criterion or another, everybody has missed the mark so far.

They did, but so did the first DSLRs, even worse so. Mirrorless are 10 generations behind, thats all. All they need is some time and R&D money.



Dec 30, 2013 at 05:38 AM
john_edwards
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p.3 #11 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


justruss wrote:
Eh, I don't get all the whining about the public's/a relative's/a friend's image quality tastes. To whit:

1. In the vast majority of cases, in my opinion, the technical aspects of a photo are at the bottom of importance.
2. The decadent crap we all post-- including 99% of what's on here, a so-called enthusiast's site-- is just pretty crap (landscapes, "street," etc) without any meaning anyway, and higher quality gear just allows us to make prettier versions of the crap more easily.*
3. Why does every stupid image of someone's kids, yet another sunset/mountainscape/car/beach/etc-- need to be shot with a
...Show more

Man you are so right!!!!



Dec 30, 2013 at 06:59 AM
naturephoto1
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p.3 #12 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


Tariq Gibran wrote:
Some crazy folks have even been known to shoot from on top of their car!
http://photo.herrimanarts.com/files/2012/03/Ansel-Adams-on-Car-3.jpg


And have even shot some iconic images from the top of those cars.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e3/Moonrise%2C_Hernandez%2C_New_Mexico.jpg

Tariq Gibran wrote:
Were these larger prints (16 x 20 +) or small? Interestingly, AA originally printed many of what would later become iconic images small but later printed them larger for commercial purposes. Seeing the earlier, smaller versions alongside the later larger ones is interesting as one can see how much he often changed things over time (ala "the negative is the score, the print the performance" AA).


So very true regarding the quote about the negative being the score and the print being the performance. He is still an inspiration and influence to many of us even so many years after his death. And to have had the opportunity to have some interaction with some of his students including John Sexton only helps to reinforce these feelings and to also recognize just how fine his students like John became as photographers.

Rich



Dec 30, 2013 at 07:05 AM
Spyro P.
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p.3 #13 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


This is how I see things

1. I find the general tone of the NYT article somewhat misleading, because it's too US/EUR centered. The fact is that mirrorless has its highest market share in Japan and Asia, and the bulk of Oly and Fuji sales are in Japan and Asia. It didnt catch so much in US/EUR, well too bad but it's not the end of the world, far from it.

2. Photography has many "compartments". In my prefered genre, street photography, almost nobody shoots smartphones, and they never will. It's not that with a smartphone you'll get a grainy photo, it's that in most cases you wont get a photo at all. It's happy times for street photography, after a decade where the only viable options were either DSLRs or ancient film cameras, we finally have suitable digital cameras that dont cost $7k and as a result we have more people shooting strangers in public places than we ever did. We're still a tiny niche, but now strong enough to sell books, prints and workshops to eachother

3. Having said all that, I couldnt care less what fuji, leica, sony and the rest of them do. I dont have shares in them, in fact I dont care if they all shut shop tomorrow and nobody ever makes another camera again. When all the market was selling was crap digicams, I survived shooting ancient cameras 30 years after they stopped making them. Now the market is flooded with nice cameras, and I know they will last me for another 30 years. Furthermore, I couldnt care less if people shoot smarphones or if they appreciate "true photography" (whatever that is). I make the photos that I like because I like making them, and I'm lucky enough to have a number of friends, around me and online that I can share and discuss what we love doing, god bless you all. I'm all set, for as long as I can walk with a camera.

Edited on Dec 30, 2013 at 08:00 AM · View previous versions



Dec 30, 2013 at 07:54 AM
Smiert Spionam
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p.3 #14 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


Yup, the series I'm talking about were big prints -- but I know what you mean about the earlier contact prints. Some of those are even more compelling, and it's great to see them alongside the later versions.


Dec 30, 2013 at 07:58 AM
GRM
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p.3 #15 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


justruss wrote:
Eh, I don't get all the whining about the public's/a relative's/a friend's image quality tastes. To whit:

1. In the vast majority of cases, in my opinion, the technical aspects of a photo are at the bottom of importance.
2. The decadent crap we all post-- including 99% of what's on here, a so-called enthusiast's site-- is just pretty crap (landscapes, "street," etc) without any meaning anyway, and higher quality gear just allows us to make prettier versions of the crap more easily.*
3. Why does every stupid image of someone's kids, yet another sunset/mountainscape/car/beach/etc-- need to be shot with a
...Show more


Should we all drive Yugo's because they can take us all from point A to point B? What if I want speed, comfort or even a different color other than white, black or gold?
When I try to use my iPhone to take a picture of my kids running, it always fails me. The focus is nowhere on my kids. Should the iPhone work for me because it does for others? While I agree with you, that most of my pictures are crappy, I want them to be crappy and in focus. Besides, we buy electronics to 'connect' with them. I want to feel joy when I grab my camera. I can't say the same about a cell phone.
Other than that, I agree with you. Most of today's pictures could be easily taken with a 2MP digital camera.



Dec 30, 2013 at 08:12 AM
Jman13
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p.3 #16 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


There are reports that Panasonic and Olympus both are returning to profitability in the camera division, in large part due to mirrorless. Fuji has said that the rest of their imaging is down, but that the X series is doing well and expects to return a profit in this upcoming quarter.

Frankly, if the makers are counting on what has been an unprecedented boom in digital camera sales the past decade to continue, they'll be in trouble. The low end will go to smartphones. Serious photographers will continue to shoot serious cameras, both SLRs and mirrorless. Thinking casual snappers will continue to go for interchangeable lens cameras is folly. It's never been sustainable.



Dec 30, 2013 at 08:29 AM
Tariq Gibran
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p.3 #17 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


ReneMurea wrote:
When I try to use my iPhone to take a picture of my kids running, it always fails me. The focus is nowhere on my kids.


^^ what Jman said.

Not much different than how any current APS or FF mirrorless with slow AF (which is pretty much all of them) would do unfortunately...and this is probably why cheap DSLR's are still desirable and recommended for soccer moms and dads that want to use something more than a cell phone. Smaller format mirrorless is the exception but then price becomes the issue for some consumers but...

Camera performance has become a huge selling point/ differentiator among Smartphones over the past three years or so and will only get better and better. The "delusion" that camera makers seemed to get caught up in is that everyone and their sister would want more expensive cameras after the digital imaging revolution took off over the past decade. These companies experienced a surge in sells beyond anything they saw pre-digital. The reality is that the market is simply correcting itself. The market will probably get this one right in the end and ILC's of all sorts will just become an even larger niche.



Dec 30, 2013 at 09:35 AM
mco_970
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p.3 #18 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


justruss wrote:
Eh, I don't get all the whining about the public's/a relative's/a friend's image quality tastes. To whit:

1. In the vast majority of cases, in my opinion, the technical aspects of a photo are at the bottom of importance.
2. The decadent crap we all post-- including 99% of what's on here, a so-called enthusiast's site-- is just pretty crap (landscapes, "street," etc) without any meaning anyway, and higher quality gear just allows us to make prettier versions of the crap more easily.*
3. Why does every stupid image of someone's kids, yet another sunset/mountainscape/car/beach/etc-- need to be shot with a
...Show more

The pictures of my family, to me, are the most important photos I've taken. The rest of it falls away into nothing. My dad passed away some years ago before I was much into people photography, and I have snaps of him, but nothing great. I truly regret that all my pictures of him are with little point and shoot cameras, because I can't just go back and take those pictures again, or take new ones to fill the place of those I missed. The opportunity is gone, and time steals the images saved in the mind.

It's not that I want to see every pictures of people's kids, but I don't mind looking at them, nor do I mind looking at the filler images that we take and share as part of our photography hobby.

I think when losses in life start settling in on you, perspective changes. I can absolutely see the value in capturing some family photos on something other than a cell phone. Even if that cell phone does have 40 MP and therefore must be better than a DSLR.



Dec 30, 2013 at 09:37 AM
ukkisavosta
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p.3 #19 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


Interesting discussion, and I can relate with a story of my own.

My sister-in-law is trying to figure out what she'd get after having shot my old 350D till it finally gave up the ghost. I pitched her some ideas and asked what she thought about a mirrorless option. Size and bulk was somewhat a concern for her, so the mirrorless idea was instantly greeted with enthusiasm. She definitely wanted an EVF, when asked whether shooting only with the back screen was enough for her. I told her to check out the OM-D E-M5 and the NEX-6, as those would be nice options with a good bang-for-buck-ratio at the moment.

Next time we met she brought up the subject again. She had checked out the mirrorless options and was somewhat concerned about available lenses and their prices, as total cost of the system was an important factor in the equation as well. I told her that fast lenses will always be more expensive, be it a DSLR or mirrorless system lens. We discussed lens availability and cost of a complete system if/when she would start expanding it, and in the end she figured she'd go for a DSLR system anyway, having been quite content lugging around the old 350D up to now. So in the end she settled on a new EOS 600D kit (on sale for 399 eur locally), and is going to look for a used Sigma 30/1.4.

I'm not sure if anything can be inferred from this isolated case, but mirrorless systems are still a bit difficult to approach, I guess. Even beginners might have OVF/EVF as a must-have requirement, which immediately takes basic mirrorless models out of the equation. Add in a fast normal to blow out the background in portraits, and you're looking at a 1000 EUR mirrorless kit (not 100% sure about this, though... I haven't really checked the selection of fast normals for mirrorless kits).

Anyway, I still figure that a Rebel plus the Sigma 30 is nearly half cheaper than a comparable EVF-equipped mirrorless kit, and not a bad option at all, if the added bulk is not a problem.

Jaakko



Dec 30, 2013 at 09:43 AM
alwang
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p.3 #20 · Dismal Outlook for Mirrorless


justruss wrote:
Eh, I don't get all the whining about the public's/a relative's/a friend's image quality tastes. To whit:

1. In the vast majority of cases, in my opinion, the technical aspects of a photo are at the bottom of importance.
2. The decadent crap we all post-- including 99% of what's on here, a so-called enthusiast's site-- is just pretty crap (landscapes, "street," etc) without any meaning anyway, and higher quality gear just allows us to make prettier versions of the crap more easily.*
3. Why does every stupid image of someone's kids, yet another sunset/mountainscape/car/beach/etc-- need to be shot with a
...Show more

The Picasso/Kinkade analogy doesn't work, because the difference between Picasso and Kincade *isn't* really technical quality, but artistic merit. No one is saying that smartphone images can't have artistic merit: they clearly can. The issue is that more full-featured cameras are reflective of an attention to craft, and to me, that craft is worth preserving, irrespective of artistic merit. If all cameras become more automated and simpler, we'll lose appreciation for many of the subtler decisions made in a photograph: DoF, motion blurring, exposure, focus selection. I want to live in a culture where people recognize those distinctions, because it's richer and more interesting.

I'd make a food analogy: traditional cooking involves attention to a lot arcane detail that many would argue today is outmoded and unecessary, and it's true: no one anymore needs to make their own chicken stock or make their own cheese every day. But when a vast majority of the public has *never* made their own stock or cheese, then as a culture we start to believe that the stuff that comes in cans or prewrapped slices is just as good, and our society is poorer for it.




Dec 30, 2013 at 09:45 AM
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