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Archive 2004 · 10d replacement information

  
 
Gerry Szarek
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p.2 #1 · 10d replacement information


I expect the film camera's to stop evolving, it's dead. Why would you continue to put R&D into a market that keeps shrinking? I however see canon to continue to produce film camera's for a VERY long time (they already paid for the tooling and developement, so it's just pure profit now).

Maybe I will win the lottery (I don't play ever) and then can afford a 1Dmk2 along with a few more L lenses.

Gerry



Jul 23, 2004 at 07:00 AM
daverk
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p.2 #2 · 10d replacement information


It amuses me that people can get so worked up (dpreview) over nothing. Does it really matter if the 10D's successor is now in production? Did anyone doubt Canon would one day replace the 10D? What do people outside Canon itself (and its field testers) know about the new camera? Nothing. So it's still the same hashing and rehashing of uninformed speculation.

My rumors are better than yours! Nyah nyah! Silly fools.

-Dave-



Jul 23, 2004 at 11:35 AM
RDKirk
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p.2 #3 · 10d replacement information


daverk wrote:
It amuses me that people can get so worked up (dpreview) over nothing. Does it really matter if the 10D's successor is now in production? Did anyone doubt Canon would one day replace the 10D? What do people outside Canon itself (and its field testers) know about the new camera? Nothing. So it's still the same hashing and rehashing of uninformed speculation.

My rumors are better than yours! Nyah nyah! Silly fools.

-Dave-


It's fun to speculate as long as we remember that's what it is. A former boss of mine use to say:

Never fall in love with your own theory.



Jul 23, 2004 at 11:53 AM
tipit008
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p.2 #4 · 10d replacement information


DPR is a site that is mainly about *gear* whereas FM is mainly about *photography*. This may have something to do with the difference in tone between the two web sites.

I prefer FM by far!
(Even though I like to read about gear!!!)

Marc P.



Jul 23, 2004 at 12:01 PM
PShizzy
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p.2 #5 · 10d replacement information


I lke my 10D. if all that changes are some features like ETTL-2, then I dont need it. I will save my money til I can get a different type of camera, not just the new version of mine.


Jul 23, 2004 at 12:02 PM
lionken07
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p.2 #6 · 10d replacement information


I'm happy as long as its FF...


Jul 23, 2004 at 12:27 PM
jxsq
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p.2 #7 · 10d replacement information


I am enjoying reading all these rumors.

I think it is highly possible for canon to release a $2000-$3000 camera using same 1dII sensor (8m, 1.3x). It is impossible for me to think that canon will do 1.5x camera, and I also think it is highly unlikely for canon to introduce any other type of sensors this year, or even next year.

Sensors are very hard/expensive to design, and very very expensive to setup the manufacturr line, but once it been designed and setup, per chip cost it pretty much fixed.

(OT: If you doubt about this, think about intel's pentium chips, many of us know overclock, for example famous celeron 300MHz, can be run at 450 MHz. at that time one is cheapest entre level chip, another one is the high-end chip. Why? Because inside of all these chip are same, they simply add some artifical limits at packaging)

so giving the number of MarkII shipped, it is natural for Canon to find another camera to use same sensor and so reduce the per chip cost.

I'd say that 1.3x 8mp 9-point AF, camera is best interest of Canon. Additional feature maybe slightly bigger buffer, slightly fast speed, USB 2.0 highspeed interface etc.

Personally I'd like to see better AF system, but I don't think we will see it soon.




Jul 23, 2004 at 01:17 PM
Cleric
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p.2 #8 · 10d replacement information


Well now the Paul Pope said it, it might as well be an announcement from Canon.


Jul 23, 2004 at 01:25 PM
Keith Wong
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p.2 #9 · 10d replacement information


jxsq wrote:
Sensors are very hard/expensive to design, and very very expensive to setup the manufacturr line, but once it been designed and setup, per chip cost it pretty much fixed.

(OT: If you doubt about this, think about intel's pentium chips, many of us know overclock, for example famous celeron 300MHz, can be run at 450 MHz. at that time one is cheapest entre level chip, another one is the high-end chip. Why? Because inside of all these chip are same, they simply add some artifical limits at packaging)


Not quite right, jxsq. Pentium CPU's all come off the same production line. When they come off the batch, all the chips are tested. Some are found to be able to take higher clock speeds - so they would be sold at a higher rating. Increments in clock speed within the same processor family is due to manufacturing improvements which increase the yield of chips which tolerate high clock speeds.

Unfortunately, one of the factors which reduces yield of chips is the physical size of each chip. The larger the chip, the more likely it will have some manufacturing defect and be rejected. The manufacturer does not know that a chip is defective until it has mounted and packaged the chip and tested it - which adds significantly to the cost.

In the PC world, totally defective chips are thrown out. Slightly defective chips are sold to be run at lower clock speeds. The best chips are sold at a premium with a high clock speed rating.

In the digital camera sensor world, defects manifest themselves as dead or noisy pixels. These pixel sites are identified during testing and mapped out by the camera. Each manufacturer has a tolerance for how many defects it would allow before the chip is discarded.

What I am saying is - unless Canon have made improvements to the manufacturing process of the 1.3x CMOS sensor in the 1DMk2 to SIGNIFICANTLY increase the yield, or opened a new chip fabrication facility, they would be committing economic suicide by selling a 1.3x crop 10D replacement. Either that, or they would be forced into putting second rate 1.3x sensors into the 10D replacement if any kind of volume is to be expected.

It would be the D60 situation all over again!



Jul 23, 2004 at 07:11 PM
jxsq
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p.2 #10 · 10d replacement information


Keith Wong

What I am saying is - unless Canon have made improvements to the manufacturing process of the 1.3x CMOS sensor in the 1DMk2 to SIGNIFICANTLY increase the yield, or opened a new chip fabrication facility, they would be committing economic suicide by selling a 1.3x crop 10D replacement. Either that, or they would be forced into putting second rate 1.3x sensors into the 10D replacement if any kind of volume is to be expected.


Do you have the data on 1.3x sensor yield rate? the density is not that high from today's standard, the thing is not that complicate compare to other type of chips. and I will be very surprised if the yield is low. Also, as you already point out, one can use the masking/rewiring trick to skip those bad cell, just like what have been done in memory chips. Further, software can then be used to fix the remaining dead cell.

No hard data to surpport, but I'd think the main cost now for canon is really the initial setup cost (since the design is already been done), plus per chip material cost.

Anyone know how much that size of material cost? if someone can tell me how much the material cost for 1.6x, 1.3x and full frame, then we can do some more calculations on this.






Jul 23, 2004 at 07:34 PM
PKuglin
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p.2 #11 · 10d replacement information


What I am saying is - unless Canon have made improvements to the manufacturing process of the 1.3x CMOS sensor in the 1DMk2 to SIGNIFICANTLY increase the yield, or opened a new chip fabrication facility, they would be committing economic suicide by selling a 1.3x crop 10D replacement. Either that, or they would be forced into putting second rate 1.3x sensors into the 10D replacement if any kind of volume is to be expected.

Not sure I agree with this logic. Silicon cost is directlly proportional to volume. A large submicron fab needs to do at least 5000 300 mil wafers per week to keep the costs about $2000/wafer (raw costs) If the volume drops the price to wafer goes up linearly (2500 wafers/week = $4000/wafer). If the volume goes up from 5000 the wafer cost drops to a point it flairs out i.e. 50,000 wafers/week doesn't = $200/wafer even if 1 fab could do that much volume.

Bottomline, if Canon can hit that magic volume point with using the 1DMkII sensor in the 10D+ then their COGS drop and they can drop the price. Maybe they recover yield by remapping defect pixels and still have a 6M pixel camera, but 1.3x crop. Who knows, but I do know if they don't have enough volume the costs increase. BTW, it doesn't matter if all those wafers have the same device on them, but having less device types allows them to put more manufacturing engineering into each device to increase yield. However, since device yield is related to device size (constant defect density based on area) I bet Canon sticks with a smaller sensor on their lower end DSLRs.




Jul 23, 2004 at 08:56 PM
Kevinmcc
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p.2 #12 · 10d replacement information


The 10D replacement will NOT have a 1.3 crop factor, that would be a silly move for Canon and they are not going to suddenly make a semi-pro camera a pro camera.


Jul 23, 2004 at 09:18 PM
skasol
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p.2 #13 · 10d replacement information


well here it is guys, I work for a trusty retail store, and the only info that I have so far is a "sku" # and a model # so here it is canon eos 20D with a EF-s18-55MM lens. I have a stock date of october 10 2004 I have weight width and height but I don't think that is important. so I have 2 more months to wait.
forgot the price, I have a listed price of 1599.99



Jul 23, 2004 at 10:06 PM
Arka
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p.2 #14 · 10d replacement information


skasol wrote:
well here it is guys, I work for a trusty retail store, and the only info that I have so far is a "sku" # and a model # so here it is canon eos 20D with a EF-s18-55MM lens. I have a stock date of october 10 2004 I have weight width and height but I don't think that is important. so I have 2 more months to wait.
forgot the price, I have a listed price of 1599.99


Well, if you lend credence to that theory, all of the dreamers hoping for 1.3x are going to be a little disappointed. Of course, it would be completely ridiculous for Canon to release a 1.3x on a 10D level camera. Think about how many 1D's are sold in comparison to 10Ds. I would imagine at least a tenth, maybe even less? To take the same chip, which is by necessity costlier to produce than their tried and true 6MP 1.6x CMOS chip, and put it in a camera that sells at that kind of volume would be ludicrous. They would go bankrupt, and few people buying in this price range, aside from those who frequent forums like this one, understand the importance of crop factor anyway! If you tell Joe Consumer that the camera has 8MP to Nikon's 6MP, they understand that the number is bigger. 'Great! I want that Canon!' they say. Tell them that the crop factor is 1.3x versus 1.5x on the Nikon, and they're confused.... 'Wait... that's a smaller number..' All of a sudden, you need a competent salesman to sell this product, and to explain why smaller in this case is better. OK, so who's that going to be? The short-tempered jerks at B&H? Maybe the wage slave at Best Buy? The scam artists at Broadway Photo? You have to send reps to all the stores that sell your prosumer equipment and explain the concept of crop, and even after that, the salespeople may not get it. The smaller shops would get it, but not too many people buy from them anymore. B&H would not have time to explain it to you, and Circuit City wouldn't even know where to begin.

The crop is a tough concept to sell, and the larger sensor costs money. The MP sells itself, and costs Canon far less.

Further, if the 10D+ went 1.3x, you'd create another issue in the product lineup that is not easily resolved. Instead of the current problem, where the 10D is too close to the Rebel, you would have the opposite problem, where the 10D+ is too close to the 1D. How many people yearning for the high profit 1D II would then migrate down to this lower margin camera because it is 'close enough' to their dream camera? Canon does not want that, folks! If you want the features of a 1D II, they want you to buy a 1D II!

I would suspect an incremental upgrade in the 10D, and a price drop in the Rebel. Maybe an 8MP CMOS at 1.6x, tweaks to the 7 point AF to make it more accurate, or at least better QC on the AF chips to make the focus 'issues' disappear, and ETTL2. We might also see a modest increase in frame rate, better battery life, and a boost in the responsiveness of the camera (no more waiting for stuff to happen). A-Dep mode will likely vanish, as it did on the Mark II. What will be really interesting is to see what happens with the mount. I wonder if we'll see EF-S on this camera. If we do, I think we all can be assured that 1.3x or FF are not in the future of any prosumer cam from Canon, at least not for a very long time.

This 10D would likely sell for $1500 or less. The 300D would sell for $500. And Nikon will be forced to sell D70's at a loss to keep up.

A lot avid forum watchers are hoping and praying for the 1.3x crop in a consumer camera... to them, it's the only thing that makes sense... it's the only thing that might cause them to upgrade.... but that's all wishful thinking. It may be sensible to you, but its not sensible to Canon, or to the market at large.

Arka C.



Jul 23, 2004 at 10:46 PM
Isca
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p.2 #15 · 10d replacement information


Can I ask a silly question, why is the crop factor so important to everybody if WYSIWYG? Is it do do eith the amount of noise that the sensor produces?


Jul 23, 2004 at 10:57 PM
drumminj
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p.2 #16 · 10d replacement information


Isca - I believe it's merely an issue of having wide angle lenses be truly wide-angle. If you want wide on a 1.6 crop camera, there aren't many options. On a 1.3 or FF camera, the 17-40 is wide enough (or even too wide). On a 1.6, you probably need the Sigma 12-24. However, on the opposite end, with a 1.6 you get more reach from your lenses. It all depends what you shoot.

Also, if the sensor gets bumped to 8MP, you may get too much density on a 1.6x sensor. You get more interference from neighboring pixels, and thus more noise, blooming, etc.

Another issue is the viewfinder size. Because of the 1.6x crop, the 10D viewfinder is pretty small compared to a FF camera.

J



Jul 23, 2004 at 11:06 PM
Arka
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p.2 #17 · 10d replacement information


Somehow, Nikon has been able to create a 1.5x camera with an outstanding viewfinder (the D2H). I somehow think that Canon could do the same, if they wanted to.

What I would much rather see from Canon is a wide angle that performs well, and compensates for the crop. A 12mm, weather sealed alternative to the Sigma would be an interesting entry into the fray. I also hope they start designing these lenses to refract light specifically for digital sensors, instead of film. What I would prefer they NOT do is make them EF-S. That would be a bummer.

Arka C.



Jul 23, 2004 at 11:23 PM
PKuglin
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p.2 #18 · 10d replacement information


Well, if you lend credence to that theory, all of the dreamers hoping for 1.3x are going to be a little disappointed. Of course, it would be completely ridiculous for Canon to release a 1.3x on a 10D level camera. Think about how many 1D's are sold in comparison to 10Ds. I would imagine at least a tenth, maybe even less? To take the same chip, which is by necessity costlier to produce than their tried and true 6MP 1.6x CMOS chip, and put it in a camera that sells at that kind of volume would be ludicrous. They would go...Show more

Arka who said the 1.3 crop was a selling feature and your opinion of the buying public is sad. I would give people more credit.

I think the issue is the "cost of goods sold" and if using the same sensor in the 1DMkII and the 10D allows to reduction in the COGS of both then it might make since. Unless we know the numbers who is to say. Intel can make between $80 and $500 for the exact same silicon design when in is binned for preformance. Same could be true for CMOS sensors - it really depends on what is causing the yield loss. Now I really think it is remote, but not as absolute as you put it.



Jul 24, 2004 at 01:04 AM
skasol
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p.2 #19 · 10d replacement information


Arka I only have one question for you and please take in mind that I think you're an educated person with great manners and helpful.
what exactly do you mean by "Maybe the (WAGE SLAVE) at Best Buy?"
Just wondering what that paragraph means to you.


Edited by skasol on Jul 25, 2004 at 06:34 AM GMT



Jul 24, 2004 at 01:25 AM
Tommy Lee
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p.2 #20 · 10d replacement information


Here is my wish list (and guess) for the new 10D to Canon.

#1. 8MP 1.45 Crop factor. Canon must go to 8MP or else next year's or year after next improved Sony F838 noise reduction may match or surpass current generation 1.6X 6MP in noise and resolution.

#2. Reduced pixel size (improved lpm) improve noise reduction for ISO 800 (but not as good as MKII), less aggressive anti-alias filter (to match D70)

#3. 2X the buffer space

#4. Super duper focus

#5. Cost 10% more than D70 or less. Canon still have to stop the D70 deflection.






Jul 24, 2004 at 01:37 AM
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