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Archive 2004 · 10d replacement information

uz2work
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p.4 #1 · 10d replacement information

If there is going to be a 20D at $1599, that would confirm what I have felt for the past 2 months as I have read posts speculating about the 10D replacement--that those who were thinking of a $2500 camera with many of the 1DII features were dreaming. Canon does not care to market a camera for
FMers who currently own the 10D and who want a 1DII lite. The DSLR market is currently not big enough for Canon to add a 3rd high end body. The money to be made in the DSLR market is at the low end. That is where the vast majority of cameras sold is. Canon is not targeting current 10D owners. They want 10D owners to go up to a 1DII or else they are willing to let the 10D owners wait another generation or 2 before they upgrade.
Canon wants to target D30 owners, D60 owners, potential Nikon buyers, and those upgrading from a high end PandS. To do that, they need to modestly improve the 10D and have a competitive price. If the list price is $1599, by
the first of the year, the street price will be $1200-1300, and they will have a camera that competes nicely with the Nikon D70 (or D100) in terms of features and price, and they will still have the 300D with which to compete based on price. Canon is not going to stick the 1.3 factor sensor in a camera at this point in the market. Instead, they will cram as many pixels as they can into the 1.6 sensor. They are also not going to put an AF system anywhere like that on the pro bodies into their lower level DSLRs. A slightly higher burst rate and buffer are inexpensive upgrades to Canon, but Canon will still, from a production point of view, want the new camera to share as many
components as possible with the 300D. Also, if Canon is coming out with more EF-s lenses, that is an indication that the 1.6 crop factor will be around
for a long time.
Les

Jul 24, 2004 at 03:36 PM

Ed W
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p.4 #2 · 10d replacement information

My biggest complaint with the 10D is that it's AF system can't read my mind. ECF would go a long way to fixing that particular problem, but I wonder how much of a challenge it would be for it to work with cropped viewfinders (and glasses).

uz2work wrote:
Canon is not targeting current 10D owners. They want 10D owners to go up to a 1DII or else they are willing to let the 10D owners wait another generation or 2 before they upgrade.

I know what you mean, but I'd think Canon would want any current DSLR owner to buy the new product, regardless. Price-wise, the 1DII is far too expensive for the vast majority of 10D owners. I would think that Canon would want the guys who are itching to upgrade (for whatever reason) to buy the 10D replacement instead - just as many megapixels at 1/3rd the price.

I also wonder how widespread the understanding/misunderstanding of the AF accuracy issue is outside of forums such as FM, RG and DPR, or even if it's a real issue. I only know one other person with a 10D. He doesn't frequent any internet photography forums and he's never complained about his 10D's AF system.

Jul 24, 2004 at 05:48 PM

uz2work
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p.4 #3 · 10d replacement information

Ed W wrote:
My biggest complaint with the 10D is that it's AF system can't read my mind. ECF would go a long way to fixing that particular problem, but I wonder how much of a challenge it would be for it to work with cropped viewfinders (and glasses).

I know what you mean, but I'd think Canon would want any current DSLR owner to buy the new product, regardless. Price-wise, the 1DII is far too expensive for the vast majority of 10D owners. I would think that Canon would want the guys who are itching to upgrade (for whatever reason) to...Show more →
While I know that there are plenty of people on this and a few other forums who own the 10D and would like a significant upgrade at a price between
$2000-2500, those people are small in numbers compared to the number of
D30, D60, 300D owners and first time DSLR buyers, and it is that larger number of people that Canon will want to target its new model at.
Les

Jul 24, 2004 at 06:00 PM

tipit008
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p.4 #4 · 10d replacement information

uz2work wrote:
If there is going to be a 20D at $1599, that would confirm what I have felt for the past 2 months as I have read posts speculating about the 10D replacement--that those who were thinking of a $2500 camera with many of the 1DII features were dreaming. Canon does not care to market a camera for
FMers who currently own the 10D and who want a 1DII lite. The DSLR market is currently not big enough for Canon to add a 3rd high end body.
Les

I definately hope your are wrong.

A 3D would *not* be a high end model but a *midrange* one, a bit like the Nikon F100 or the Canon EOS 3 on the film side. I disagree that the DSLR market is not big enough. I think the midrange bodies are always the last to appear. They put the best technologies in the best bodies and charge an arm and a leg for it. Then they produce the cheaper models for the masses and, finally, for guys like me that want better than the stuff for the masses but that can't justify the cost of a "1" series model, they make a midrange model that incorperates some but not all of the pro features. I will not be buying a 1DmkII anytime soon but I might save up for a $2200 model that is significantly better than the current 10D. I don't think I'm alone.

Those that think that us guys wanting better than the 10D will just pluck down in our wallets and take out enough cash to buy a 1DmkII are out of touch with the reality of a semi-pro photographer on a budget!

Marc P.

Jul 24, 2004 at 08:18 PM

chrisutley
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p.4 #5 · 10d replacement information

kyle wrote:
]Of course ALL DSLR's will be replaced until the technology stabilizes out -- we are still in the infancy period of this technology --but it's getting better with each new cam.

Now that cameras are computers, they will be replaced with regularity in perpetuity. I frequent a few Mac sites, and the most popular posts have titles like...

"So and so says G6 to ship in early 2005..."
"New PowerBooks, when

"
"Should I buy a G5 now or wait for next model?"

Sound familiar

If not, they will in time...

Jul 24, 2004 at 09:32 PM

Arka
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p.4 #6 · 10d replacement information

skasol wrote:
Well the only thing I would say is that every store has its share of people that for performance reason or personality or quality of work probably do get pay that kind of money, but I also would say that I know "Lot's of people" that make a pretty good living out of best buy at the store level, I happen to be one of them. I am able to support my very expensive hobby (photography) as well as live decent. 7-9 is what they start at, depending on the people's drive, quality of work, dedication etc. they get to...Show more →

Art,

I'll say this again; my intent was not to cast aspersions at the entire community of retail salespeople; I have friends who work in retail, and I worked in retail for over 3 years. I know the challenges of the job, and have some idea of the compensation. I remember the knowledge and dedication of my colleauges as it related to their job, and it was rarely all that impressive. I also have rarely found the help at Best Buy to be all that knowledgeable, regardless of whether I or someone else has asked the question. This is also the consensus of most of the people I know, some of whom have worked a stint at Best Buy. They are not the same as employees at small dedicated Camera shops, in general. Further, I see a much larger percentage of employees at small photo shops (Not Ritz) devoting lives and careers to the business, than employess of big retail chains like Best Buy; I would say that most are just passing through on the way to something bigger. As such, they are often not all that up-to-date on the technology they are selling.

Note that I did not say all... some people, such as yourself, have found financial and professional happiness in retail, and I'm glad for that. I'm sure you worked no less than anyone else to get where you are today. We should all be doing something we enjoy, and getting paid enough to do it, and I never argued that there were no such opportunities available in retail. But out of a hundred employees that hire in at your store, how many actually get to your level, or are even interested in being at your level? My experience has shown that the numbers are relatively few in relation to the total number of hires. So I continue to assert that in retail, your story is not the common refrain.

Arka C.

Jul 25, 2004 at 01:05 AM

Arka
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p.4 #7 · 10d replacement information

tipit008 wrote:
I definately hope your are wrong.

A 3D would *not* be a high end model but a *midrange* one, a bit like the Nikon F100 or the Canon EOS 3 on the film side. I disagree that the DSLR market is not big enough. I think the midrange bodies are always the last to appear. They put the best technologies in the best bodies and charge an arm and a leg for it. Then they produce the cheaper models for the masses and, finally, for guys like me that want better than the stuff for the masses but that can't justify...Show more →

But what if you could buy a Mark II 2 years from now for a little over $3000? I still think Canon would rather have you do that than give you a $2000 semi-pro option and neuter Mark II sales. In particular, Canon is not going to release a sub-pro camera with a smaller crop factor/larger sensor than the current model. The number of 10D owners willing to shell out for a machine like that are few and far between. Most of them frequent these forums, so we have an unreal sense for the real numbers.

I, for one, would not have done it, even if Canon offered it. I would've opted all the way up to the Mark II instead if I really needed all those features, and that is, in fact, what I did.

Arka C.

Jul 25, 2004 at 01:11 AM

Arka
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p.4 #8 · 10d replacement information

bearcat wrote:
Arka, the basic matter is that the 10D is not Canon's entry-level DSLR, so it does not have be the barest bones value proposition. If the buying public at large were as uninformed as you suggest, then the 10D would barely sell at all, nor would the D70 being do so well relative to the Digital Rebel, even though it costs $100 more even before you get into lenses. Unless you were to assume that people are buying the D70 because they like black better than silver.

I could have easily been one of the people you thought knew nothing about...Show more →

Why do people take such personal umbrage to the notion that the entry level buying public is not all that well informed? I'm not saying you're not well informed. But the general body of entry level dSLR buyers are NOT as well informed as people here on FM. Nowhere near as well informed. Canon is not selling to people on forums alone... they are selling to people who are just getting into high end digital photography! And I would argue that the 10D, at less than $1500, caters largely to that market. It was MY first digital SLR, and boy am I glad it was! And so is Canon... I have since bought 5 L lenses, 1 non L lens, countless accessories, and a new pro-body. I only learned of these rather complex topics soon after buying the 10D and frequenting these most informative forums.

If you want to find out exactly what people do or don't know about cameras and dSLRs, go ahead and visit your local camera shop, and your local retail megastore, and see what kinds of questions are being asked of salespeople. And then, ask salesmen what they know about what they are selling. Go into the Apple Store, which is an upscale chain that has fairly knowledgable staff, about crop factor. I'll bet the first person you ask won't be able to explain it to you. How can he? He's got a lot of things to keep up on.. computers, peripherals, printers... the list goes on and on. You might need to talk to someone at the Genius bar or something.

The crop factor is not a simple concept to explain and sell, and it does not resonate as well as the MP argument. I can tell perfectly educated and intelligent people that I paid $4000+ for an 8MP camera, and they shake their heads. Later, I'm sure they all pull out their Sony F828's and Canon Pro1's and get a hearty chuckle at my expense... 'we paid a LOT less for an 8Mp camera!' they might chortle. Once I tried to explain to this most intelligent friend of mine that the camera's sensor size matters, and he says...'yeah whatever.' Yet, whenever I bring up the 1Ds with it's mighty 11MP, everyone seems to understand why THAT camera might cost a lot of money. It's got 11 Million pixels! Egad, that's a LOT!!!

There's a concept that sells itself.

Arka C.

Jul 25, 2004 at 01:25 AM

Kyle Yates
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p.4 #9 · 10d replacement information

Not getting into any flame wars -- but in general knowledge at most of the big chain stores is pretty abysmal -- not only on the part of staff but also customers -- I'm sure we've all seen people getting suckered into spending 50 USD on an "Extended Warranty" on a product that only costs them 150 USD in the first place and being told you HAVE to have it.

In the EU the manufacturers warranty is still LEGAL and has to cover the goods for a minimum of 12 months so this type of practice is just down to sales pressures -- more profit is actually made on the warranites than the product BTW.

Countless times I've gone into computer stores where the sales man hasn't a clue about the difference between DVD+RW, DVD-RW or DVD-RAM and when buying a CF card / microdrive one often hears things like -- don't get one of those -- you should get the new -XD -- it's faster and will work in your camera. I don't even have enough energy left to muster up a reply.

As far as a new 10D is concerned -- it does seem that the 300D / 10D are "too much alike" and I really do have doubts if they will survive together in their present form.

There is also quite a gap in the 10D and 1D MK II -- but this is a difficult one to fill. The 10D is fine for a lot of shooters and having a "half way house" might stop a lot of potential 1D MK II sales as undoubdtedly the MK II has eaten into the 1Ds market.

I myself have found the MK II far better than I expected and am really considering the option of getting rid of the 1Ds to go to a MF digital back since for some shoots where I would have automatically grabbed the 1Ds without thinking I find that the MK II can provide a perfectly acceptable alternative ( not in All cases however but more than you might think). So for the absolute ultimate I'm thinking MF again.

So this does leave companies like Nikon and Canon with a dilemma -- if we keep improving our lower end models --what can we do with the higher end stuff. And if we improve the higher end stuff can we compete with Phase one / Imacon etc etc.

Canon definitely needs a D70 "buster" and I'm sure one will appear. I don't really see a D2X competing directly with the Canon 1D MK II or even the 1Ds since for that sort of money if you are a Nikon shooter you'll probably stay with Nikon.

So my guess is that the 300D might drop 150 USD or so and we'll see a slightly spruced up 10D at the same price as current model.

I don't see any model between the 10D and 1D MK II appearing.

I do however see a replacement for the 1Ds although exactly what this will achieve I don't know as the limitations now are not in the quality achievable with the cam but due to the limitations of the 35 MM format itself.

So we are in for some interesting times.

Jul 25, 2004 at 06:10 AM

uz2work
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p.4 #10 · 10d replacement information

You now have, within this topic, 2 independent posts that indicate a new camera at around $1600 (at the time of its introduction). If I assume that such information is accurate, that should end the wishful thinking about a 1.3 crop factor, advanced AF, weather-sealed body, etc. What, to me, is a more interesting question is what gets dropped from the Canon line-up? Will it be the 10D? Or will it be the 300D? Or will it be neither? The answer to this question has implications for potential buyers in the coming months. For example, if the 10D is dropped and if the new camera only has the modest upgrades, some may wish to purchase a new 10D while they are still available at what should be very low prices at the end of its production run. The 10D, which I think is already a good bargain, might be a steal at sub $1000 prices. On the other hand, if Canon decides to drop the 300D and continue the 10D and make it its entry-level DSLR, those 10D prices could go even lower to give
Canon the competive price advantage over Nikon. However, if Canon decided not to drop either the 10D or 300D, it might be that prices could stabilize near
where they are now.
Also, if Canon keeps the 300D, how quickly does Canon start using the 8.2 mp 1.6 factor sensor in that camera to reduce its production costs.
On another thought, though, we all know that the new camera, whatever it is,
will immediately be criticized for its poor focus, bad color rendition, poor software and firmware, etc. Why don't we get a jump on the other forums and start bashing it right now.

Les

Jul 25, 2004 at 08:11 AM

Tom_W
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p.4 #11 · 10d replacement information

The beauty of the internet, if one uses it, is that forums such as this bring knowledge to people. That's not to say that everything on the internet is honest or correct, but it does provide a means of research. Informed customers are the ones that will walk into the store with a very good idea of what they want, and will be harder to sway with a sales pitch.

The downside of all this internet knowledge is that my collection of glass has grown exponentially since I started my "research".

Jul 25, 2004 at 09:45 AM

jxsq
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p.4 #12 · 10d replacement information

even if the $1599 camera is true, it still does't not convinced me that Canon then can't make another $2500 body.

how about canon make two identicle body, everything is same except

a. 10d, 300d sensor (so 1.6x, maybe more MP)
b. 1.3 MkII sensor (so 1.3x, 8MP), bigger buffer than a.

a sell for 1599 and b for 2499.

Why not?

Jul 25, 2004 at 12:31 PM

uz2work
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p.4 #13 · 10d replacement information

jxsq wrote:
even if the $1599 camera is true, it still does't not convinced me that Canon then can't make another $2500 body.

how about canon make two identicle body, everything is same except

a. 10d, 300d sensor (so 1.6x, maybe more MP)
b. 1.3 MkII sensor (so 1.3x, 8MP), bigger buffer than a.

a sell for 1599 and b for 2499.

Why not?

Some day, there will be more DSLRs in Canon's line-up. But that day is still several years off. Even though DSLR prices have come down, they are still too expensive relative to film bodies and digicams to attract enough buyers, and until there is a much larger number of DSLR sales, it is not economically feasible to have a larger line-up. With pro level DSLR bodies still costing
3-4 times what a top film body costs and with entry level DSLRs + lenses still costing substantially more than digicams, the number of DSLR buyers remains relatively small. Canon (and Nikon) already have more bodies than anyone else. Canon can, at a high price and profit margin, indulge the pros with the 1Ds and 1DII with small numbers of sales for each of these two cameras. They can also make their profits based on larger numbers of sales for entry-level DSLRs like the 10D and 300D. It is not economically feasible now to add a mid-level body for a relatively small number of buyers. That will happen only when the gap between the prices of film bodies and DSLRs gets
much smaller than it is now.
Les

Jul 25, 2004 at 01:21 PM

Mthorpe_Davies
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p.4 #14 · 10d replacement information

Well said.

Jul 26, 2004 at 01:30 PM

dmward
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p.4 #15 · 10d replacement information

I just did a quick ROI calculation comparing the 1V to the 1Ds and the 1D MII.
The Helix website prices Fuji trany film at about 7.50 a 36 exp roll and processing is 6.00. given the price difference between the 1v and the 1Ds and 1D MII the ROI for the 1Ds is about 415 rolls of film and the 1D MII is about 165. That is before getting into the workflow cost reduction associated with digital.

For those of us who are not doing photography for a living the savings in processing etc. substantially changes ones attitude about taking pictures.

All this so I can say that I agree that filling the gap between the professional cameras and the consumer cameras will take awhile. My quess is that the 20D will begin flying off the shelves when it arrives.

To me the interesting tidbit in the earlier post was the fact that the EFs mount is being used. That means the mirror will have the same clearance the 300D has and then there are the additional EFs lens too.

David

Jul 26, 2004 at 02:01 PM

jmreese
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p.4 #16 · 10d replacement information

drumminj is right...u buy your 16-35mm f/2.8L lens from Canon and it's no longer a "16-35"

Jul 26, 2004 at 03:47 PM

chris78cpr
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p.4 #17 · 10d replacement information

It'll be here when it gets here! Until then i will continue to save and lust over a 1dmk2!!!

Chris

Jul 26, 2004 at 03:50 PM

Gochugogi
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p.4 #18 · 10d replacement information

I just did a quick ROI calculation comparing the 1V to the 1Ds and the 1D MII.
The Helix website prices Fuji trany film at about 7.50 a 36 exp roll and processing is 6.00. given the price difference between the 1v and the 1Ds and 1D MII the ROI for the 1Ds is about 415 rolls of film and the 1D MII is about 165. That is before getting into the workflow cost reduction associated with digital.

Provia 100F is $3.99 per 36-ex roll at B&H. I actually prefer Sensia as it projects and scans better for me. Plus it's only $3.00 per 36-ex roll at B&H. Well, I love shooting digital as well as film but I haven't saved any money yet on digital. Compared to film gear, digital is a bottomless money pit.

http://www.bhphotovideo.com/bnh/controller/home?O=productlist&A=details&Q=&sku=181489&is=GREY

Jul 26, 2004 at 04:46 PM

Kyle Yates
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p.4 #19 · 10d replacement information

Gochugogi wrote:
[
Provia 100F is $3.99 per 36-ex roll at B&H. I actually prefer Sensia as it projects and scans better for me. Plus it's only $3.00 per 36-ex roll at B&H. Well, I love shooting digital as well as film but I haven't saved any money yet on digital. Compared to film gear, digital is a bottomless money pit.

http://www.bhphotovideo.com/bnh/controller/home?O=productlist&A=details&Q=&sku=181489&is=GREY

In fact it isn't

Not only can I get MORE sellable shots that I ever would have done with film I can also do the sort of gigs that were quite impossible before digital arrived -- for example event shooting with online printing -- no way jose could I work at thos shoots with film -- and they can pay as much as 2000-3000 USD over a weekend which almost buys 1 1D MK II.

Now film costs == OK say I shoot (and it's quite easily done) 1000 shots over a weekend / week that's 3.00 X 1000 or 3,000 USD with film -- plus my time of getting it to the lab, waiting for the processing to come back,reviewing the negs including a whole slew of bad ones, and then scanning the good one's -- well I'm not going on.

Just on film costs alone over a few shoots I'd have saved the cost of a MK II.

OK I need a computer and printer(s) but you've probably got these anyway even if you haven't got a DSLR yet.

For a working pro who takes a lot of shots --believe me there's NO CONTEST -- Film is an expensive medium to shoot on nowadays and has as far as Colour 35 MM is concerned nothing to offer anymore.

Jul 26, 2004 at 06:53 PM

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