Kyle definitely says the 1D MK II will be replaced -- No details yet unfortunately. Of course ALL DSLR's will be replaced until the technology stabilizes out -- we are still in the infancy period of this technology --but it's getting better with each new cam.
"what are we speculating the 10D replacement will be like... very similar to the 10D but in a bit higher megapixel form?"
Probably the same body 'n sensor but with E-TTL II, ECF, iTunes compatibility (useful while waiting for good light), MIDI compatibility (for user customized beep tones) and will be made in Taiwan instead of Japan. Oh, the 10D will drop to below $1000 street...
I am interested only if it has 1.3X crop factor and the 45 point autofocus system. Then I can send my 10D of to my father in-law as a Christmas, Birthday, Anniversary gift.
The rumor I'm hoping comes true is actually a dual replacement. One very similar to the actual 10D and lower price and another, around $2000 or a bit more, intended to be a real "midrange" DSLR. Specs are anyone's guess but, of course, for the higher priced model, it will be somewhere in between the 10D and the 1DMKII.
As for the crop factor, I think that in all but the "1" series models, 1.6X is the only thing we'll see from Canon for a few *years* to come.
>>The rumor I'm hoping comes true is actually a dual replacement. One very similar to the actual 10D and lower price and another, around $2000 or a bit more, intended to be a real "midrange" DSLR. Specs are anyone's guess but, of course, for the higher priced model, it will be somewhere in between the 10D and the 1DMKII.
As for the crop factor, I think that in all but the "1" series models, 1.6X is the only thing we'll see from Canon for a few *years* to come.
<<
I'm with you. I believe Canon has a firm corporate idea of what comprises a "consumer" camera and what comprises a "professional" camera, and certain things won't cross the boundary.
For instance, the pro cameras have enviro sealing, 240 volt flash syncs, big buffers, interchangeable focusing screens, high-cycle shutters, and big sensors. Those are things I don't think they will ever put in the the "consumer" cameras (we see the same sort of thinking in the film line).
I agree with you that there will be a modest 10D update--probably USB 2.0 and/or Firewire, a Secure Digital slot along with the Compact Flash, whatever is the latest version of DIGIC, and some other modest tweaks. They might keep it at $1200 to compete with the D70, or they might raise it back to $1500.
I also agree that there is a good chance they'll put a pro-level camera into that $2000-2500 bracket. It might have either the 1.3x sensor or the big buffer, but not both. It won't have enviro sealing, but it might have the 240 volt trigger circuit. It might have the high-cycle shutter or interchangeable screens, but not both.
If they were to do the pro-level thing at $2000-2500, I would prefer the 1.3X sensor. Of course, there are others who would prefer a different feature set.
"unlike previous models this one will be a completely different body design."
The D30 & 60 had the same body. The 10D got a nice upgrade with the magnesium body shell. Why fix it if it ain't broke? EOS bodies tend to slowly evolve. For consumer bodies, not much has changed in the basic control layout since the 1991 Elan (pro bodies are still based in the 15 year old EOS 1). I suspect the body and control layout will remain essentially the same.
That is what I love about this forum Compare this thread with the one on dpreview linked in the first post. This discussion is at a much more mature level with no name calling or flaming. My eyes are sore from reading dpreview (I have now gotten to the part where the forum posters are telling the newbie he has no idea since he has only been a member for four months).
On the some of the past posts there were discussions about how pixel density and noise are related. Maybe the 10D replacement will have a 1.5x crop factor - two reasons I can think of two good commercial reasons for this:
1) Puts distance between the 300D and 10D, better product separation
2) Competes head-on with Nikon, Fuji and Pentax's 1.5x sensors.
I agree, 1.3x ain't happening on a $1500-$1800 body - but 1.5 might.
I think the more interesting rumor is the 3D based dSLR which has everything we're looking for (a common characteristic for good vapor-ware). 1.3x, 8MP 4-5 FPS, Eye Control. At $2000-$2500 this would be a great alternative to those of lusting after a 1DmkII but lacking piles of cash in the kitchen and couch cushions!
Another really interesting camera will be the 300D's replacement; at $780 (new w/ lens @ buydig.com). Assume Canon address the flash adjustment parameters, resolves some of the AF issues and ups the camera to 8MP - and $1000!!! I'm assuming it will have the same noise level, etc. For $1k more 10D owners could downgrade and the net-result would be an upgrade!!!
I'm really hoping Nikon updates their line-up. I've noticed the 2DH users here are pretty enthusiastic about the cameras. I could justify jumping ship for the right features & price combination.
I remember reading somewhere that Canon have a trend of releasing digital/film cameras in pairs - high end for one and mid/low end for the other. eg, 1D mkII & EOS 30v/e (Elan 7n/e)
As much as I'd love to see a 3D this year, if the trend continues I don't think it's going to happen. Rather, we will probably see a 10D/300D replacement along with a high end film camera, say, a 1 or 3 replacement.
