>>The rumor I'm hoping comes true is actually a dual replacement. One very similar to the actual 10D and lower price and another, around $2000 or a bit more, intended to be a real "midrange" DSLR. Specs are anyone's guess but, of course, for the higher priced model, it will be somewhere in between the 10D and the 1DMKII.
As for the crop factor, I think that in all but the "1" series models, 1.6X is the only thing we'll see from Canon for a few *years* to come.
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I'm with you. I believe Canon has a firm corporate idea of what comprises a "consumer" camera and what comprises a "professional" camera, and certain things won't cross the boundary.
For instance, the pro cameras have enviro sealing, 240 volt flash syncs, big buffers, interchangeable focusing screens, high-cycle shutters, and big sensors. Those are things I don't think they will ever put in the the "consumer" cameras (we see the same sort of thinking in the film line).
I agree with you that there will be a modest 10D update--probably USB 2.0 and/or Firewire, a Secure Digital slot along with the Compact Flash, whatever is the latest version of DIGIC, and some other modest tweaks. They might keep it at $1200 to compete with the D70, or they might raise it back to $1500.
I also agree that there is a good chance they'll put a pro-level camera into that $2000-2500 bracket. It might have either the 1.3x sensor or the big buffer, but not both. It won't have enviro sealing, but it might have the 240 volt trigger circuit. It might have the high-cycle shutter or interchangeable screens, but not both.