M Vers wrote:
I'd agree on the possibility of a '3D', a camera that falls between the 5 and 1 series. Something introduced to compete directly with Nikon's D700/D700x, as they have done with Nikon's D300s. Whether or not it would have a FF or APS-H sensor is another story (Remember, no one thought the 7D would have a 1.6x sensor). Another possibility would be to release a '5DIIn' updated with a new AF system, flash master and other goodies the 7D is associated with. The big question is what Canon will do with their 1-series--will they continue with the APS-H format? Will they release a lower mp FF sensor (18-21) for the '1DIV' and a higher mp sensor (25-30) for the '1DsIV'? Who really knows, but the 7D, again, is a sign of things to come and a good one at that IMHO....Show more →
My first bet would be an updated 5D II at photokina 2010 before a 3D.
As for the 1D IV sensor that's interesting. The 7D with dual digic IV can pump out 144MP/s. Let's assume a 1D IV stays with 10fps, then it would be feasible that it could be either 16MP FF or 1.3x crop. I'm sure a 16MP FF, that does 10fps would be a lot of peoples dream camera and puts Canon ahead of the D3 for a while. But what do Sony/Nikon have in store for the D4 and what does Canon think they are going to do. Canon may make a dramatic jump in 1D III MP to say 18MP in a 1.3x sensor, but can dual digic IV handle 180MP/s? Will it offer an enhanced digic IV or even digic V That can go even faster?
Now that the 7D has put a high density crop and potentially great AF and fps in one package, my preference for the 1D IV would be a ~16MP FF, whereas before I wanted more reach from the 1D IV, say 16MP in 1.3x crop.
The other option would be to dump 1.3x from 1 series and put into 3 series, but would anyone pay more for a 1.3x 3 series than a FF 5 series, even if it were a much better camera in every other way?
The next steps Canon and Nikon make will be very interesting.
I think what you say makes a lot of sense. A 28-30 MP 1Ds IV and a 21MP 3D both shooting 6fps with the 1Ds have all the 7D features plus and the 3D have the 7D feature set does not overlap all that much. The only question I have is whether Canon will go with even more resolution for both cameras. Both the 50D and now the 7D had more resolution than I expected. Either way a 3D is such a good answer to the D700, I can't see Canon not doing it. I think there is also room for a 1D IV with a 15mp 1.3 crop and shooting 10 fps. It was clear when people thought a 1D IV was coming out many people still wanted the 1.3 crop and other wanted a FF with faster speed. Having a 3D that is FF and a 1D IV that is 1.3 crop would mostly satisfy both groups.
Fred Relaix wrote:
I agree with you. I think the only way Canon can try to compete with a possible D700x would be to introduce their 21MP FF sensor into the 7D (3D?), with 6.8fps (144mp/sec), and keep everything the same (including the AF, exactly like Nikon did with the D300/D700).
Businesses do not always choose to compete directly against a specific competitors product. That would at times be suicide. Sometimes you have to compete with the competitors weakness, not his strength.
nathanlake wrote:
Businesses do not always choose to compete directly against a specific competitors product. That would at times be suicide. Sometimes you have to compete with the competitors weakness, not his strength.
Product differentiation is a huge driver sometimes.
We all know that Canon will never produce a "no excuses" camera. It doesn't have to push the envelope, it could just provide things that are already available. They'll never do it because they want a reason to leave people "short of satisfied".
Give people what they want, they won't buy again for quite a while. Short change them and they'll be more likely to upgrade - frequently and often is their hope....
I'm puzzled as to why, of all times, people are still throwing this around? For all intents and purposes the 7D is the 3D we've been waiting for, except for the significant omission of not being FF.
It seems to me that the 7D has practically ensured that the next full frame camera that isn't a 1-Series will be the 3D, whatever it's called. Assuming the longest possible timeline, the 5DIII will need to have the features of the 7D, and will thus be the mini-me full frame counterpart to the 1-Series, the mythical 3D. At least, if it has the elusive dedicated MLU button that is an apparent requirement of such a camera...
Jeff wrote:
I'm puzzled as to why, of all times, people are still throwing this around? For all intents and purposes the 7D is the 3D we've been waiting for, except for the significant omission of not being FF.
It seems to me that the 7D has practically ensured that the next full frame camera that isn't a 1-Series will be the 3D, whatever it's called. Assuming the longest possible timeline, the 5DIII will need to have the features of the 7D, and will thus be the mini-me full frame counterpart to the 1-Series, the mythical 3D. At least, if it has the elusive dedicated MLU button that is an apparent requirement of such a camera... ...Show more →
I think the logic behind the "7d is not the/a 3d" is pretty sound. The 7d is a cropped sensor while the 5 series is a FF. The cropped 1D series is somewhat of an anomaly, oddball, or fish out of water, technically. It just seems to make a lot more sense to make the 3d a small FF 1 series. All technical obstacles for dual processors are gone; you'd lose the lower file window, the built in grip, and possibly a CF slot, but otherwise, it's a wide open space for a FF sensor and 100% VF.
I'm sure the APS-H sensor will be retired, I just don't know when. Production efficiencies aside, a line dedicated to H sensors doesn't make a lot of sense when your primary business comes from FF or 1.6x.
An interesting point though, and somewhat obscure, is that Canon introduced their newest AF (45-point) on the EOS 3. It didn't make it to the 1 series for another year + when it showed up on the 1V. I'm certainly not suggesting that Canon is going to change the 1 series to a 19 point version, but I wonder if the 7d is a test vehicle as the EOS 3 was previously (albeit with diminished capacity this time).
To me it is simple. The 7D shows that Canon wants to compete with the Nikon D300s and the 3D will compete with the D700 and its successor--that is a lower res higher speed moderately priced camera. The 5D MKIII, IMO, will compete with the Sony a850--that is a higher res lower speed lower priced camera. I think there is room for a pro or close to pro spec'd 1.6 crop and two FF pro or close to pro spec'd cameras. One high res low speed (5D type) and one lower res high speed (3D type).
Tim Ashton wrote:
I think we should be including Nikon and Sony's future too, in all this .
James being a resident of the US North East probably will not agree with me but the effects of this recession are going to be with us for a while yet, and this is going to have an ongoing affect on discretionary spending and such thoughts will be getting a lot of attention in the board rooms of Canon, Nikon and Sony.
My background being a farmer makes me inherently conservative when it comes to economics but it is my guess that whilst R&D will continue apace we could easily slip back to when the top of the line pro cameras were rolled over to coincide with every second Olympics.
From my point of view, all of you out there with the latest and the greatest, still screaming for more should maybe take a reality check and to kick this off, I am offering to James, that for a year, we swap gear.
Yep. James can do a Henri Cartier Bresson impersonation with my D70s and I will take a peek at how the other 2.5% manage with their pro gear.
RCicala wrote:
I can't give you Canon's sales figures, but I can give you figures from a large rental house: we stock 3 times more 5D2s than we did 5Ds at their peak (and that was our previously best renting camera). The 5D2 rents more than 3 times more frequently than any other camera we've ever stocked and the number would be higher except we never could get enough to keep them in stock.
Hmmm... Sounds to me like the 5D2 is overpriced, given your experiences. I'd think people tend to rent what it's not worth it to them to buy. I personally think Canon f'd up on the 5DII's pricepoint, given its (lack of) features. The release of the 7D just put it into proper perspective.
kakomu wrote:
Canon has 5. If we're to discuss the models that aren't high end, then Nikon has 1 and Canon has 2. Canon Currently has 2 DSLR FF Cameras for sale.
EOS-1Ds Mark III
EOS 5D Mark II
The 1D/1Ds is a weird bird. Why this nomenclature?
So, Canon keeps the 1Ds at the top of the heap, FF, but they call it the 1D.
They slide the 1D into the 3D slot. It might be FF in its next iteration or 1.3x, whatever. But then you have the FF high-res champ as 1d, then the FF or 1.3 speed demon as the 3D (I think they'll keep the large body, and I would expect them to make it FF but lower resolution than the 1Ds at the top).
Then you have 5D, which gives up a lot of the 1Ds (called the 1D in my scheme) has but retains its heart--big FF IQ.
Then comes the 7D, which gives up a lot of the 1D (called the 3D in my scheme) has but retains its heart--high speed, performance.
That way you have two top shelf bodies, perhaps both FF, one focusing on resolution and the other on speed.
Below these, you have two lower bodies, one focusing on IQ/resolution (giving up the performance of the top-shelf), one focusing on speed/performance (giving up the larger sensor/IQ).
This is a possible way of things unfolding. It's not what I want to see. I want a FF 7D (call it 3D or whatever).
jamesf99 wrote:
I think the logic behind the "7d is not the/a 3d" is pretty sound. The 7d is a cropped sensor while the 5 series is a FF. The cropped 1D series is somewhat of an anomaly, oddball, or fish out of water, technically. It just seems to make a lot more sense to make the 3d a small FF 1 series. All technical obstacles for dual processors are gone; you'd lose the lower file window, the built in grip, and possibly a CF slot, but otherwise, it's a wide open space for a FF sensor and 100% VF.
I'm sure the APS-H sensor will be retired, I just don't know when. Production efficiencies aside, a line dedicated to H sensors doesn't make a lot of sense when your primary business comes from FF or 1.6x.
An interesting point though, and somewhat obscure, is that Canon introduced their newest AF (45-point) on the EOS 3. It didn't make it to the 1 series for another year + when it showed up on the 1V. I'm certainly not suggesting that Canon is going to change the 1 series to a 19 point version, but I wonder if the 7d is a test vehicle as the EOS 3 was previously (albeit with diminished capacity this time)....Show more →
I would say the new 19 point AF sensor in the 7D is the test bed for the prosumer line of cameras, 5DII upgrade and whatever else is in the works. I would guess the new AFsensor for the 1d series will be at least 45 AF points with many of the same features shown in the new 7D AF sensor...
Jeff wrote:
Hmmm... Sounds to me like the 5D2 is overpriced, given your experiences. I'd think people tend to rent what it's not worth it to them to buy. I personally think Canon f'd up on the 5DII's pricepoint, given its (lack of) features. The release of the 7D just put it into proper perspective.
That's it, don't let facts get in the way of your gut feeling. Just because Canon's selling all the 5DII and L lenses they can make there's no reason to believe the pricing is good.
It may be a poor value for your needs, but both the old and new 5D are a huge success. Canon's only problem had been the huge gap in price point between the 5DII and the 50D.
jamesf99 wrote:
Product differentiation is a huge driver sometimes.
We all know that Canon will never produce a "no excuses" camera. It doesn't have to push the envelope, it could just provide things that are already available. They'll never do it because they want a reason to leave people "short of satisfied".
Give people what they want, they won't buy again for quite a while. Short change them and they'll be more likely to upgrade - frequently and often is their hope....
I think this is rarely the case. Would a photographer take mediocre pictures with the throught that his customers will return for something better next time? There are lots of business forces that prevent Canon from producing the ultimate camera. In fact, businesses in general are rewarded for producing "good enough". That is just the way the buying public works. I am quite sure that Canon and Nikon could produce a 40Mp, 10FPS, ISO 64K, FF camera. But the cost would prevent most of their customer base from ever buying one. There is no incentive to do it.
nathanlake,
The photographer analogy doesn't really work. We're talking about tech, which is an always improving area where you know something better is always coming. In tech the idea of stringing people along isn't an unusual concept--give them just enough to be happy right now, but little enough to want more when the Next Big Thing comes out. That wouldn't work with photo clients, but works all the time in tech.
I don't think it's Canon-bashing to claim that Canon have been on the back foot for a while now in terms of bringing out something truly new and innovative. Frankly they didn't have to, so they gave us just enough to keep upgrading. It could be claimed that Nikon have been so successful in this area recently simply because they had a lot of room to improve but you get the idea. The D300, D700, and (to a lesser extent) D3 upset the apple cart, and Canon have just now come to grips with the D300. I'm hoping the D700 is next on their hit list, because Canon still don't have an affordable, truly all-purpose FF. The 7D looks like it'll be the all-purpose camera in the 1.6x segment, so a FF 7D would go up against the D700 brilliantly.
jamesf99 wrote:
I think the logic behind the "7d is not the/a 3d" is pretty sound. The 7d is a cropped sensor while the 5 series is a FF. The cropped 1D series is somewhat of an anomaly, oddball, or fish out of water, technically. It just seems to make a lot more sense to make the 3d a small FF 1 series. All technical obstacles for dual processors are gone; you'd lose the lower file window, the built in grip, and possibly a CF slot, but otherwise, it's a wide open space for a FF sensor and 100% VF.
I'm sure the APS-H sensor will be retired, I just don't know when. Production efficiencies aside, a line dedicated to H sensors doesn't make a lot of sense when your primary business comes from FF or 1.6x.
An interesting point though, and somewhat obscure, is that Canon introduced their newest AF (45-point) on the EOS 3. It didn't make it to the 1 series for another year + when it showed up on the 1V. I'm certainly not suggesting that Canon is going to change the 1 series to a 19 point version, but I wonder if the 7d is a test vehicle as the EOS 3 was previously (albeit with diminished capacity this time)....Show more →
I think you raise a lot of good points here, especially the death of the 1.3 crop (stick with 1x or 1.6x, only) but I disagree on the 19 point note.
The physical af sensor size and mirror mechanics are decidedly different on the 1.6 crop such that I don't see a great benefit of trying to scale a 1.6x AF system to a 1x AF system (also why I think that the 5D series cameras haven't seen an AF refresh, physically speaking). I do think that the AF logic and such will be ported over though. Actually reading what you wrote again--I think we're pretty well in agreement.
I also don't expect to ever see a 3D, but would be pleased if it does show up. Only way it makes sense is if they want to expand their 1.3x line outside of the 1D series.
Jeff wrote:
Hmmm... Sounds to me like the 5D2 is overpriced, given your experiences. I'd think people tend to rent what it's not worth it to them to buy. I personally think Canon f'd up on the 5DII's pricepoint, given its (lack of) features. The release of the 7D just put it into proper perspective.
Possibly. But more than several times I've had people offer me retail list price to buy a rental unit because they couldn't find one. In many cases people have rented week to week until they could get their own copy.
