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Archive 2009 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

jamesf99
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p.1 #1 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

Now that the 7d is old news (

) I'm curious what others think will happen next. Canon fell behind years ago, so we can only look forward. We're all done for 2009, but I'm willing to guess what this means from a marketing perspective and what Canon will release next.

I think the 7d tells us a lot from a feature and pricing perspective. The results probably won't be seen until next year with no new 1 series appearing for at least 3-12 months (sucks, but that's Canon for you).

The 7d is superior in all features relative to the 5d2 (excluding sensor size), superior in all ways to xxd and lower lines (ignoring here), and approaches, equals, or even betters some features of the 1 series. Hence, nothing matters for this discussion other than the 1/5 series.

7d features equaling or improving on the 1 series include dual processors, 100% VF, dual-axis electronic level, higher FPS throughput (18MPx8 = 144MP/sec equivalent and besting both mark 3s, independent of buffer), better LCD, better UDMA interface, as well as video, but that's certainly not a plus to me. Instead, video is a wasteful distraction that can only diminish still camera performance. Features nearly equaling the 1 series include actual FPS (ignoring throughput), and very speculatively, a new AF system.

What does this mean, speculatively of course, for the next releases? Assuming there is no 1D/1Ds merge coming, the 1 series will get the 7d new features (more MP, digic 4, VF axis, etc.) and pricing will change little, if at all. Canon will potentially, and insanely IMO, try to sell a 1D series at $4.5k or $5k (more likely) and a 1Ds at $6k-$7.5+. I think Canon will try to hold on to the unjustified pricing for another round.

And what about that $2700, badly over-priced 5d2? Probably no changes for 6 months minimum, but more likely another year or two (Sept 2010 later); instead Canon will use the 7d as way to stem the tide of "FF crop flight" for a while, and justification to over charge $1,000 - actually more when you consider how mediocre the 5d2 features are - for a FF sensor. There will be no other buy in below the 5d2 and sometimes what you don't release is just as telling as what you do release. Best anyone can hope for is Canon allowing the price to slide; something it has prevented for a year.

A 3D? Not gonna happen....

Can this change before next year's PMA? Possibly, but it really depends on what Nikon does, not Canon. Canon has proved it will give up nothing it isn't forced to do because it's losing market share.

Sep 01, 2009 at 10:23 AM

RCicala
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p.1 #2 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

I agree with most of what you say, but a couple of points I've got to disagree with.

First video isn't a wasteful distraction, its exceedingly in demand and only time will tell where it heads. You may never use it, but I can tell you that videographer/cinematographer demand for these cameras is HUGE, and they consider $2,700 for a 5D II the bargain of their world right now.

Second, given that the only division within Canon to not be in negative sales territory this year is cameras ( http://www.canon.com/ir/conf2009q2/p22.html ) I'm thinking they aren't exactly worried about the 5D2 being a failure. They've got bigger issues.

Sep 01, 2009 at 10:51 AM

globalkiwi
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p.1 #3 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

Not sure how you can conclude all this *before* any real world testing has been done on the camera!

Sep 01, 2009 at 10:54 AM

LightShow
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p.1 #4 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

FF cameras are becoming very popular, competition is heating up.
Nikon has, what? 3, soon to be 4? FF cameras.
Sony has 3? with the newest one coming in at $2k

Canon has 2, one @ $7k, and one @ $3k(plus or minus a few hundred) & both have 21Mp.
and IMHO that's not much of a selection.
And I don't think Canon will hand over the remaining FF market to Sony and Nikon.

so that leaves 4 possible outcomes...
1) The 1D goes FF, there will be some happy and some mad at the change.(IMHO)
2) Canon adds a 3rd 1D to the lineup (FF ~12Mp 10fps)1D3k(One D3 Killer)

3) The 3D (7D but FF)
4) A 60Ds entry level FF

Sep 01, 2009 at 11:02 AM

kakomu
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p.1 #5 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

I'm just finding the bickering over specifications more and more ridiculous all the time. Especially when I see the furor caused by a single 7D thread and the fact that many of the photo posting forums are like ghost towns. Far be it for me to say "go out and shoot" when I've been guilty of discussing gear as well. But, when it comes to dissing the entire product line of a company that is basically on top due to a few specifications that you feel are inferior, it just feels like there's no recourse beyond saying "just take some pictures and stop worrying about all the specs".

LightShow wrote:
FF cameras are becoming very popular, competition is heating up.
Nikon has, what? 3, soon to be 4? FF cameras.
Sony has 3? with the newest one coming in at $2k

Canon has 2, one @ $7k, and one @ $3k(plus or minus a few hundred) & both have 21Mp.
and IMHO that's not much of a selection.
And I don't think Canon will hand over the remaining FF market to Sony and Nikon.

so that leaves 4 possible outcomes...
1) The 1D goes FF, there will be some happy and some mad at the change.(IMHO)
2) Canon adds a 3rd 1D to the lineup (FF ~12Mp 10fps)1D3k(One...Show more →
Canon has 5. If we're to discuss the models that aren't high end, then Nikon has 1 and Canon has 2.

Edited on Sep 01, 2009 at 11:10 AM · View previous versions

Sep 01, 2009 at 11:08 AM

jamesf99
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p.1 #6 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

RCicala wrote:
I agree with most of what you say, but a couple of points I've got to disagree with.

First video isn't a wasteful distraction, its exceedingly in demand and only time will tell where it heads. You may never use it, but I can tell you that videographer/cinematographer demand for these cameras is HUGE, and they consider $2,700 for a 5D II the bargain of their world right now.

Fair enough. That's why I said "to me" it's a detriment to "still camera" features. I'm interested in still cameras, not video. While I can't get excited about it, I recognize it could be helpful for some. Canon is providing some nice things on the 7d body, that other than sensor size, will make still and video people appreciate it.

I'm slowly, and kicking-and-screaming unwillingly, having to deal with the fact that I'm not the type of customer Canon wants. I'm all about the "still camera" features and Canon's about those that want something else.

Second, given that the only division within Canon to not be in negative sales territory this year is cameras ( http://www.canon.com/ir/conf2009q2/p22.html ) I'm thinking they aren't exactly worried about the 5D2 being a failure. They've got bigger issues.

My point was that Canon has lost share to Nikon, and Sony, et. al. I wasn't saying they were unprofitable, but they're behavior has cost them something. Some of this is bound to happen with maturing-market parity, but if Canon didn't do something, erosion would continue or accelerate.

Sep 01, 2009 at 11:09 AM

jamesf99
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p.1 #7 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

globalkiwi wrote:
Not sure how you can conclude all this *before* any real world testing has been done on the camera!

I'm assuming you're responding to me. How can I conclude or speculate *before* the camera has been tested? I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt (assuming it's good) and basing my guess on 30+ years of Canon watching, and very closely on the current/recent market conditions.

Sep 01, 2009 at 11:12 AM

globalkiwi
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p.1 #8 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

Surely the discrepancy between the specs of the 1DIII & it's initial real-world performance must give you pause when doing so?

Sep 01, 2009 at 11:13 AM

Tim Speciale
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p.1 #9 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

A 3D? Not gonna happen....

It just did. It's called a 7D.

Sep 01, 2009 at 11:17 AM

Fred Relaix
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p.1 #10 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

I think a FF camera with 7D features is actually likely to happen, and would be a huge success. And it would make sense to be called a 3D. A 21MP FF camera with 7D processing would be able to deliver 6.8fps (144mb/s), and keeping everything the same (well the AF system would be pretty cramped in the center, but Nikon did this successfully with the AF of the D300 into the D700).

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:01 PM

M Vers
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p.1 #11 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

Tim Speciale wrote:
It just did. It's called a 7D.

The 7D doesn't fall between the 5 and 1-series, rather between the X0D and 5-series. And IMO I wouldn't count a '3D' out.

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:04 PM

Yakim Peled
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p.1 #12 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

My thoughts on Canon's future releases is that I'm am very interested to see the 1D Mk IV and assuming RG approves it I will surely buy it.

Happy shooting,
Yakim.

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:05 PM

TezM
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p.1 #13 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

I think the 5d2 was the old era of canon technology and the 7d signals what we can expect from now on in subsequent canon SLRs.

Canon must have known the 5d2 would have sold regardless of what they did, so they held all the technology back to put into a different body.

If the 7d was full frame, it would be my ideal camera and actually something to match the D700.

One thing that gets me though: the specs, feature list and build quality of this 7d point towards a solid semi-pro/professional system. I'm wondering if Canon will now release an L series ultrawide (like a 10-22 L or something) to allow 7d (and 7d2, 7d3 etc) users to get a real wide shot on an APSC camera but have the build quality and reliability that goes along with being an L lens.

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:07 PM

Yohan Pamudji
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p.1 #14 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

M Vers wrote:
The 7D doesn't fall between the 5 and 1-series, rather between the X0D and 5-series. And IMO I wouldn't count a '3D' out.

I would go even further and say that the 7D is the strongest sign of an impending 3D yet. Before this it was all hope and conjecture, but now we at least have an example to point at of a Canon camera with pro-ish features that isn't a 1-series. Whether it's called the 3D or the 5D Mark III, it now seems almost inevitable that there will be a FF camera with 7D-ish feature set (lower fps though) at some point in the near future. It will be interesting to see whether Canon continue the 5D line as a lower priced FF a la Sony A850 or just replace it altogether with a 3D. Regardless, I think the 3D is finally in the works.

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:11 PM

AW237
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p.1 #15 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

Yohan Pamudji wrote:
I would go even further and say that the 7D is the strongest sign of an impending 3D yet. <snip>
Whether it's called the 3D or the 5D Mark III, it now seems almost inevitable that there will be a FF camera with 7D-ish feature set (lower fps though) at some point in the near future.

Yes, I agree, but the $100,000 question is WHEN?

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:14 PM

nathanlake
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p.1 #16 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

I think it is absolutely hilarious when someone says, "If Canon came out with a XX camera with XX features, it would be a huge success."

If it were only that easy. In fact, I think (I might be wrong) Canon is in business to produce successful offerings. I also guess they have some pretty smart poeple deciding what they should sell and how much to charge for it. A FF, 30Mp, 8FPS, ISO 51.2K camera at a $500 price point would be a "huge success", if you only measured success by sales volume. Unfortunately most companies also like to show a profit. That makes it all a bit tougher.

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Steve Spencer
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p.1 #17 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

Here are my predictions:

PMA 2010: 1DMKIV - 15 mpixels, 1.3 crop, 10 fps, dual digic IV upgraded AF with some of the new tracking features seen in 7D, and new metering system, etc., $4,000
Photokina 2010: 1DsMKIV - 32 mpixels, FF, 5.5 fps, dual digic IV, same upgrades as 1DMKIV, $7,000
by the end of 2010 5D MKII drops to at least $2,200
PMA 2011: 3D - 21 mpixels, FF, 8 fps, dual digic IV all the other stuff from 7D, $3,000
Fall 2011: no high level camera, but 3D might slip to here
PMA 2012: 5DMKIII - 32 mpixels, FF, 4 fps, single digic V, same upgrades as 7D, $2,400

Five high level cameras, 3 FF--1 top of the line high res., relatively fast full featured, 1 lower res., fast and nearly full featured, 1 high res. slow and nearly full featured, 1 1.3 crop mod. res, very fast full featured, 1 1.6 crop high res., fast, nearly full featured. This will make an awesome line up and expect Nikon to have a similar spread, but they won't have the 1.3 crop of course and they still have to develop the high res., slower, cheaper camera.

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:46 PM

Tim Speciale
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p.1 #18 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

M Vers wrote:
The 7D doesn't fall between the 5 and 1-series, rather between the X0D and 5-series. And IMO I wouldn't count a '3D' out.

The imaginary 3D that everyone has been clamoring for was never going to fall between the 5D and the 1D. The imaginary 3D has been around long before the 5D. Then when the 5D came out people pondered whether or not that was the imaginary 3D.

It wasn't.

The imaginary 3D was always going to be a camera above the XXD and below the 1D. It was logically going to have 1.6x sensor. It was hopefully going to have 8fps. It was logically going to have less than 45 AF points (due to the likely smaller sensor).

The 5D has nothing to do with this...the 7D, is the 3D.

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:49 PM

Tim Speciale
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p.1 #19 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

Yohan Pamudji wrote:
I would go even further and say that the 7D is the strongest sign of an impending 3D yet. Before this it was all hope and conjecture, but now we at least have an example to point at of a Canon camera with pro-ish features that isn't a 1-series. Whether it's called the 3D or the 5D Mark III, it now seems almost inevitable that there will be a FF camera with 7D-ish feature set (lower fps though) at some point in the near future. It will be interesting to see whether Canon continue the 5D line as a...Show more →

Why would the "3D" have a full frame sensor? At what point in time is the film EOS 3 analogous to a full frame digital camera?

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:50 PM

joekraft
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p.1 #20 · Thoughts on Canon's future releases

I'd bet there will not be a 1Dx, 3Dx, 5Dx, 7Dx and XXd camera on the market simultaneously. Something has to give, or they would need to significantly differentiate the models.

Sep 01, 2009 at 12:51 PM

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