RDKirk
Offline
• • • • •
Upload & Sell: Off
|
Don Clary wrote:
Concerning the 5DII:
www.nowinstock.net reports present availability for cameras. I don't need Canon 5DII sales numbers to realize that 5DII monthly sales in August 2009 are vastly lower than they were in December 2008, when it was first introduced. In December 2008, on average, two to three of the major retailers out of ten had 5DII in stock. Today as I write this, zero of 10 major retailers have 5DII in stock.
RDKirk, do you still have this fantasy that in August 2009, Canon cannot meet the astounding demand for 5DII?
I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you have not read the entire thread, however if you're going to attack someone's point of view as a "fantasy," I'd think you'd at least have the courtesy to have read all of that person's posts.
The problem with www.nowinstock.net is that they are only surveying major Internet dealers. While it's valuable information for people who intend to purchase from one of those dealers, it is a fatal error of information analysis to believe it provides a meaningful statistic.
One of the things I noted in one of these threads six months ago was that Canon's distribution of the 5D2 and the LP-E6 battery has been "shallow but wide." In years before, Canon shipped large supplies of product to the largest retailers first and small retailers had to wait half a year or more after a product was introduced to see their first box.
But since at least the release of the 5D2, small retailers started getting a consistent trickle of product from the very beginning--and large retailers have been getting not much more. For instance, I had no trouble getting two 5D2 cameras and several extra LP-E6 batteries in January just by placing orders in a couple of small stores and waiting two weeks.
This is also borne out in this blog by a rental center representative, who believes that Canon is taking a deliberate effort to keep the "Wal-Mart" effect from putting its destiny in the hands of a few major retailers: http://www.lensrentals.com/news/2009.04.24/state-of-the-slr-industry-2009
I have written in this thread that Canon is doing the same thing as most manufacturers-- reducing manufacturing capacity in fear of the current economic downturn. They are certainly not increasing capacity. The primary expense of a company is usually labor, and a reduction of expenses looks on the books like an increase in profits ("A penny saved is a penny earned").
They can't guarantee more sales in this environment, but they can guarantee reduced expenses by laying off workers and eliminating assembly lines. That's what an auto plant in my town has done (despite the fact that the company's overall sales are still fairly good). That's what Canon has been doing.
I will amend my statement that you quoted: Until the global economy shows signs of permanent improvement, Canon is unlikely to increase production capacity regardless of momentary demand.
You attribute this to special devious maliciousness on the part of Canon. I see this happening everywhere. For instance, do you recall the national issue in the US a few years ago over the inability to get armor for Army HumVee vehicles in Iraq quickly enough? Because of the overall reduction in production capacity in the entire US (something I'd noted had begun adversely affecting national defense back in the mid-90s), there was only one supplier for that armor, and that supplier was not going to increase production capacity for a short-term demand (a budget appropriation lasting only one fiscal year).
Not many (if any) major manufacturers right now are going to open new floorspace, order new production equipment, or hire new workers, even if there is a demand. Not right now, probably not this year, maybe not next year. Canon is not, Nikon is not, Sony is not. It's just as hard to get some Nikon items as it is to get some Canon items.
What they will do is rotate production lines through the smaller capacity they currently have. For instance, they will make a short production run of one lens model, then shift that assembly line make another short production run of another model. So there will be periods of availability and periods that a lens is out of stock. That's exactly what the auto plant in my town is doing, too.
We know for a fact that Canon has shelved plans for a new plant and has dismissed at least 1000 Japanese workers, so they have reduced capacity even down from what they had when the 5D2 was initially released.
If Canon is planning to release a new xxD camera soon, I expect they've temporarily shifted their consumer capacity to support that camera and whichever other consumer camera provides the most profit (which is not necessarily the camera that has the shrillest Internet forum clamoring).
So there are multiple factors in effect--not the evil conspiracy that you imagine. There is the economic downturn that has caused all manufacturers to contract their production capacity, which is a dark cloud over everything.
There is the fact that Canon is following a new distribution strategy of "shallow but wide"--very likely to ensure that a handful of New York vendors can't put a stranglehold on them. If you're only paying attention to those major vendors, supply will look a lot worse than it really is.
|
