DaveMart
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 p.47 #11 · 'Unofficial' Photokina RUMOR Thread | |
lexvo wrote:
Well, a new 50D in feb 2006 seems very possible to me.
That was my bit!
I was just having fun, guessing what might be in the pipeline, and according to Paul at least got at least some bits right - I suspect that I was too optimistic about high ISO noise, and that that was the error on the 50D.
Anyway, here are my guesses:
'Just for fun, I wondered what everyone's guesses were about what Canon will bring out over the next couple of years?
Here's my go, to set the ball rolling:
The assumptions that I've made are that Canon will look to increasing the rate of model change at the bottom end of the DSLR market to similar rates to that in the compact market, with small frequent upgrades to maintain interest - prices are going down and numbers of DSLR's sold are going up, so it would be worth their while.
The second assumption is that as Canon have said that they will eventually have FF at everywhere except the entry level, they will not be too bothered about retaining EF-S compatibility for too long.
Just the same, after the recent Canon white paper about FF, it is obvious that it will be challenging to go straight to FF, as the sensor costs 10-20 times that of an APS-C according to Canon.
The APS-H however, it is clear only costs perhaps 3 times a APS-C chip.
Since they are not bothered about EF-S compatibility, it seems to me that they will go to a 1.3 on the way to FF - but only when it is going to maximise profits for them to do so.
The third asumptipn is that Canonwere serious and honest in this interview:
http://www.dslrphoto.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/07/Future_DSLRs.pdf
They are then going to introduce more DR (other Canon interviews, I believe - never been able to track the source down) and higher ISO shortly, and a camera with EVF at some time.
So based on that, here are my guesses for models:
Sept 06 - 1DsIII, Digic III, 22MP,8fps 16bit-only actully uses 14bit- used to make tonal transitions better, rather than any increase in DR.$8k
IDII continues for the time being.
Feb 07- 50D (not 40D)1.6, 10MP, extended DR, ISO 6400
5000D - EVF which displays 300,000 pixels at 24fps, ISO 1600 -Program modes only
Aug 07- 500D - EVF, 500,000 pixels at 30fps, extended DR., ISO 6400, Creative modes
Sept 07-6D -FF Extended DR, ISO6400 12MP, 3fps
2DRS- 1.3, Extended DR, ISO 6400, 12MP at 8fps
Feb 08- 6000D - EVF displays 300k pixels 24 fps, Program
modes only, ISO3200, Semi-Extended DR
Aug 08- 60D - 1.3, 12MP, Ext DR, ISO 6400
600D - Adds in-body IS
Sept08- 1Dx - FF, 22MP, Ext DR, ISO6400'
No one could be more astonished than I if much of this pans out!
Regards,
DaveMart
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