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 p.1 #14 · Nikon Z7III dead or alive? | |
CanadaMark wrote:
I think it's pretty clear at this point that the Z8 is effectively the Z7III unless Nikon decides to make an ultra-high resolution variant with 60-80+ MP. Even the difference between 45 and 60MP is hardly noticeable (~15% linear resolution increase) and the existing 60MP sensor on the market is fine but nothing special. Outside of a few niche cases, I think a Z8 would still be a better option than a 60MP Z7III in almost every way, especially at similar price points, so I think if they go that route they would need to offer more. The other reason that makes me think there will be no Z7III anytime soon is because it would have made the most sense (and been cheaper for Nikon) to co-develop it with the Z6III and release them together, as presumably the only significant difference would be the sensor.
Even the Z6III is going to be a tough sell for some people when the Z8 can be had within ~$500 USD used, on sale, or refurbished. Someone looking to invest thousands into a new system is unlikely to be sensitive to such a small amount when the performance difference is significant. Frankly I think unless you really want the Z6/Z7 form factor, the Z8 is a better buy despite how good the Z6III appears to be relative to its own competition. Nikon put themselves in an interesting position pricing the Z8 $2500+ USD below the closest competition - great for customers, but it complicated their lineup. Admittedly I think I also underestimated the number of people sensitive to small size/weight differences, so the demand for the smaller bodies is probably more than I would have expected it to be and not everyone is comfortable buying used/refrub. At the end of the day, Nikon needed a $2500 USD option to give potential customers a Nikon alternative to the R6II and A74 and now they have one.
For there to be a logical Z7III successor, Nikon needs to determine that there is a market large enough for development, production, marketing, and distribution of a whole new model, and they have to be able to slot it in the existing lineup somewhere that actually makes sense. The existence of a Z8 along with the Z8's extremely low (relative) price means a 45MP Z7III is almost completely pointless, but if they made it say, 80MP, then it would have it's own niche and likely wouldn't be cross-shopped alongside the Z6III and Z8.
What I personally think Nikon should do, since their goal is to maximize shareholder profits at the end of the day, is to make a mirrorless D500 successor (Z900?). That was one of Nikon's best selling non-entry level bodies, and it also increases the sale of telephoto lenses (what 90% of people use them with). They would sell a whole bunch more 180-600s and PF lenses while not eating into FF body sales too much. Put in a stacked APS-C sensor with Z8/Z9 spec or better and sell it for around the same price as the Z6III. Nikon does seem to be trying to push people towards FF though, as margins are probably higher and they won't have as many people whining about a DX lens lineup haha.
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I've seen the argument many times that if someone is investing $X already then another $Y isn't going to make much difference, but I don't think this is true. My father used to say that there are two kinds of "I can't afford that": there is the way people often use it say, basically, that a certain cost would not fit into the way they have things budgeted out, and then there is the "I can't afford that" which means quite literally that there isn't enough money to meet a cost. When your car needs a $2000 repair, can you pay for it but it's going to really mess things up for a while, or is the money just not there to actually pay the bill?
When you meet your real, actual budget, you've met your real, actual budget. I think there are a lot of people out there who want to get the best camera that they can for their budget and will push it a little to get that but are going to buy something regardless and that extra $500 really is an uncrossable line for them, so they'll settle. I also think this happens a lot more among the crowd of people looking to get a Z6/Z7 tier of camera than those who are buying flagship models.
I also am not so sure that there's much development cost to a Z7ii specifically. It's not going to be zero, but nevertheless with the Z7 and Z7ii they were really more or less just a Z6/Z6ii with a different sensor swapped in. I don't think it's as simple as a hot swap, but I do think the cost to develop something like that is really quite small.
In any case, a user on another forums posted something interesting which took some screen captures from Nikon's announcement video to highlight 9s flying through the screen, then 8s, then 6s, and then what appear to be 7s following that, which seems to suggest a z7iii would be coming.
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