Steve Spencer wrote:
The thing about mirrorless, however, is that you can't take the sensor form the Z50 and have anything remotely close to the AF capabilities of the Z9. With DSLRs the sensor and the AF units were separate. With mirrorless the AF depends to a large extent on the sensor scan speed. The sensor scan speed is pretty slow on the Z50 sensor and nowhere near the sensor scan speed of the Z9, so you can't get Z9 like AF with the Z50 sensor. You may be waiting for quite some time for the mirrorless D500, but then again maybe Nikon will build the right sensor for a mirrorless D500, but expect a pretty hefty price, however, because they certainly won't be using he Z50 sensor and one with a fast sensor scan speed at least right now won't come cheap....Show more →
Sounds like it's time to buy another D500 and store it away in case mine ever goes bad.
Steve Spencer wrote:
The thing about mirrorless, however, is that you can't take the sensor form the Z50 and have anything remotely close to the AF capabilities of the Z9. With DSLRs the sensor and the AF units were separate. With mirrorless the AF depends to a large extent on the sensor scan speed. The sensor scan speed is pretty slow on the Z50 sensor and nowhere near the sensor scan speed of the Z9, so you can't get Z9 like AF with the Z50 sensor. You may be waiting for quite some time for the mirrorless D500, but then again maybe Nikon will build the right sensor for a mirrorless D500, but expect a pretty hefty price, however, because they certainly won't be using he Z50 sensor and one with a fast sensor scan speed at least right now won't come cheap....Show more →
I think that since Nikon has Z9 sensor already. Scaling the sensor down to DX will give roughly 20mp sensor for Z500 already.
Expeeds 7 will be able to handle the task easily. So technically, Nikon already have all the main ingredients for fast Z500 already. Even more interesting, I heard the rumored Z8's 80mp is also a stacked sensor. While Z8 won't be a speed monster like Z9, scaling that sensor down to aps-c, we probably can get approximately 30mp Z500 as well that will put Fuji's effort for sport/wildlife body to rest as well I think. No idea about the cost but it seems that hardware wise, there really should not be any problem for Nikon to do it and it is more about when they will do it. Now that Nikon has consolidated its factory down to one with lower capacity than in the past, we are not going to see Nikon producing 4-6 new bodies in one year and more likely to be 2-3 new bodies at most.
Dec 16, 2021 at 06:14 PM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: Off
suteetat wrote:
I think that since Nikon has Z9 sensor already. Scaling the sensor down to DX will give roughly 20mp sensor for Z500 already.
Expeeds 7 will be able to handle the task easily. So technically, Nikon already have all the main ingredients for fast Z500 already. Even more interesting, I heard the rumored Z8's 80mp is also a stacked sensor. While Z8 won't be a speed monster like Z9, scaling that sensor down to aps-c, we probably can get approximately 30mp Z500 as well that will put Fuji's effort for sport/wildlife body to rest as well I think. No idea about the cost but it seems that hardware wise, there really should not be any problem for Nikon to do it and it is more about when they will do it. Now that Nikon has consolidated its factory down to one with lower capacity than in the past, we are not going to see Nikon producing 4-6 new bodies in one year and more likely to be 2-3 new bodies at most. ...Show more →
I think the cost will be the issue. How much do they save by scaling down the Z9 sensor to a 20 MP APS-C size? I don't think a decent camera with such a sensor can be priced below $2,500, and I don't know how well it will sell at that price when the Z6 with more megapixels and FF will likely be cheaper. Sure they could do it, but I don't know whether it makes sense to do so and not only is there that economic hurdle, but if they make that camera they really need to flesh out the APS-C line of lenses more and there are costs there including the slowing of the development of FF lenses. I think it will happen eventually, but I suspect it will be in 2025 or so. Keep in mind Sony has had the capability to make this camera for several years and hasn't done so. I think there is a reason for that and the basic problem is it will be hard to sell a lower MP APS-C camera when the company already have a quite capable higher MP FF camera that is cheaper. For Nikon this problem is exacerbated by the very nice Z5.
Your are right about that image. Going for the dirt cheap plastic hood. I bet they will be selling a lot of replacements even with the lightest of guessed lens weight. Those just break to easy.
Steve Spencer wrote:
I think the cost will be the issue. How much do they save by scaling down the Z9 sensor to a 20 MP APS-C size? I don't think a decent camera with such a sensor can be priced below $2,500, and I don't know how well it will sell at that price when the Z6 with more megapixels and FF will likely be cheaper. Sure they could do it, but I don't know whether it makes sense to do so and not only is there that economic hurdle, but if they make that camera they really need to flesh out the APS-C line of lenses more and there are costs there including the slowing of the development of FF lenses. I think it will happen eventually, but I suspect it will be in 2025 or so. Keep in mind Sony has had the capability to make this camera for several years and hasn't done so. I think there is a reason for that and the basic problem is it will be hard to sell a lower MP APS-C camera when the company already have a quite capable higher MP FF camera that is cheaper. For Nikon this problem is exacerbated by the very nice Z5....Show more →
It should sell at least as well as D500, I would think. Of course in the past, if you dont need the speed, AF, FPS, there was really no reason to buy D500 and might as well stick with D7200 or D7500 or even D610.
It is a niche market for sure. If it is a scaled down Z9 sensor, it is a bit less interesting and people with Z9 may not consider it much. If it is a scaled down sensor of 80mp Z8 (assuming rumor about stacked sensor is right), it might gain a bit more traction and people with Z9 may still interest in it because of pixel density.
However, it won't be next year I think. Beside Z8, sounds like Nikon is gearing more toward low end aps-c and FF from what I heard.
"Sounds like it's time to buy another D500 and store it away in case mine ever goes bad."
I hear ya Gary. I own 3 of them after selling my high mileage D500.IMHO hands down the best wildlife
camera for the buck since its release 5 years ago. I prefer it over the D850 and D5 which I recently sold both.
I hope the Z9 will do what other full frame bodies have not enabled me to do since the D800 I bought when it first came out......which is allow me to crop considerably and get the same image quality as the D500. Part of the reason it hasnt worked is as much a focus issue as it is a pixel issue in my opinion. If after cropping a Z9 image at or near a D500 size image and it doesnt look as good as a D500 image.....well the Z9 may not be the camera I need.
I remember when so many of us wanted the "D400" the naysayers were saying no chance. I kept believing it would happen...lo and behold the D5 and D500 were released which is still a great pair of bodies that gives a lot of flexibility for light and focal lengths. I have no problem using "full frame" lenses on my DX D500 which when paired with a full frame body gives so much flexibility....especially when one is chasing birds/wildlife.
I just cant imagine Nikon not making a mirrorless body similar to the D500 at some point. I will gladly pay up to 3000 for a cropped Z9.....and they can keep the high end video specs off.
I bought my D500 for a once in a lifetime (probably) Alaska trip in 2016 and never regretted that purchase for an instant and it's the one piece of equipment I never think of selling. Adding to maybe, but not selling. I go round and round like everyone else does thinking an upgrade is in order but for what I use a camera for, anything in the Nikon lineup, DSLR or mirrorless, seems like a lateral move at best. The Z9 sounds like a mega upgrade but I'm in no position to spend $5500 on a body. No desire to switch platforms either. An 800 6.3 sounds like an absolute dream but again, cost-wise it'll probably be out of my league. So I guess I'll just muddle along with what I've got for the next five years until used copies of Z9's and super tele's start turning up. But then again, my 500 F4 AF-I is still going strong at 25 years old so who knows When I can fill the frame with my D810 and that 500 I long for nothing else.
Ohhh to have a "Z90" with this new 800 PF........1200 FOV @ 6.3
Silent shooting and no blackout for BIF will be really sweet on the Z9 not to mention 20 FPS.....I just hope I can crop and get D500 quality images. The wildlife I encounter usually does not come close to filling the frame on a FF unless I travel 4-5 hours one way or farther.
Rimpson wrote:
Ohhh to have a "Z90" with this new 800 PF........1200 FOV @ 6.3
Silent shooting and no blackout for BIF will be really sweet on the Z9 not to mention 20 FPS.....I just hope I can crop and get D500 quality images. The wildlife I encounter usually does not come close to filling the frame on a FF unless I travel 4-5 hours one way or farther.
Wow, Z8, Z90…there are a lot of future cameras to choose from.
Have you seen an A6600? The Fuji system? AF in mirrorless is much easier than a DSLR because there’s no mirror not despite it.
Steve Spencer wrote:
The thing about mirrorless, however, is that you can't take the sensor form the Z50 and have anything remotely close to the AF capabilities of the Z9. With DSLRs the sensor and the AF units were separate. With mirrorless the AF depends to a large extent on the sensor scan speed. The sensor scan speed is pretty slow on the Z50 sensor and nowhere near the sensor scan speed of the Z9, so you can't get Z9 like AF with the Z50 sensor. You may be waiting for quite some time for the mirrorless D500, but then again maybe Nikon will build the right sensor for a mirrorless D500, but expect a pretty hefty price, however, because they certainly won't be using he Z50 sensor and one with a fast sensor scan speed at least right now won't come cheap....Show more →
Sony has made several of these already. The A6400/6600 can do 75% of what an A9 can do. The problem is the terrible size and layout. And lack of small primes.
Steve Spencer wrote:
I think the cost will be the issue. How much do they save by scaling down the Z9 sensor to a 20 MP APS-C size? I don't think a decent camera with such a sensor can be priced below $2,500, and I don't know how well it will sell at that price when the Z6 with more megapixels and FF will likely be cheaper. Sure they could do it, but I don't know whether it makes sense to do so and not only is there that economic hurdle, but if they make that camera they really need to flesh out the APS-C line of lenses more and there are costs there including the slowing of the development of FF lenses. I think it will happen eventually, but I suspect it will be in 2025 or so. Keep in mind Sony has had the capability to make this camera for several years and hasn't done so. I think there is a reason for that and the basic problem is it will be hard to sell a lower MP APS-C camera when the company already have a quite capable higher MP FF camera that is cheaper. For Nikon this problem is exacerbated by the very nice Z5....Show more →
jwolfe wrote:
Sony has made several of these already. The A6400/6600 can do 75% of what an A9 can do. The problem is the terrible size and layout. And lack of small primes.
Sorry the a6400/6600 although good cameras do not have AF anywhere in the vicinity of the A9 and they don't have a blackout free finder, and with fast moving subjects you can't use silent shooting which is a big deal for me. Sure Nikon could make a camera like that, but IMO that is nothing like a D500 mirrorless camera. If someone wants to build a mirrorless D500 camera they are going to need a stacked sensor APS-C camera with a high sensor scan speed, so it can really be a small version of the top of the line camera and has a similar VF experience and can shoot well silently. Even if we take your inflated claim, IMO, that the a6400/a6600 is 75% the AF of the A9, that is not what a mirrorless D500 is about. If it is 90% then we may be talking such a camera, but 75% the AF is a long way away and I would put it more like 60% the AF.
A D500 doesn’t have a blackout free viewfinder or silent shooting. I was strictly talking AF.
All of my friends are still shooting DSLRs for a reason. There’s nothing to replace a D500 or a 7Dmkii.
Steve Spencer wrote:
Sorry the a6400/6600 although good cameras do not have AF anywhere in the vicinity of the A9 and they don't have a blackout free finder, and with fast moving subjects you can't use silent shooting which is a big deal for me. Sure Nikon could make a camera like that, but IMO that is nothing like a D500 mirrorless camera. If someone wants to build a mirrorless D500 camera they are going to need a stacked sensor APS-C camera with a high sensor scan speed, so it can really be a small version of the top of the line camera and has a similar VF experience and can shoot well silently. Even if we take your inflated claim, IMO, that the a6400/a6600 is 75% the AF of the A9, that is not what a mirrorless D500 is about. If it is 90% then we may be talking such a camera, but 75% the AF is a long way away and I would put it more like 60% the AF....Show more →
Dec 17, 2021 at 09:46 AM
Steve Spencer Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: Off
jwolfe wrote:
A D500 doesn’t have a blackout free viewfinder or silent shooting. I was strictly talking AF.
All of my friends are still shooting DSLRs for a reason. There’s nothing to replace a D500 or a 7Dmkii.
Correct. The D500 is a DSLR so of course it doesn't have a blackout free viewfinder and it doesn't have quality silent shooting, but neither did the flagship D5 or D6 DSLRs. To me what makes the D500 so compelling is how it was competitive with the flagship cameras of the time on almost all features, but simply had an APS-C sensor. To pull that off in a mirrorless camera you need a stacked sensor APS-C sensor, and that isn't going to come cheap.
No one said anything about cheap. Nothing going forward is going to be cheap due to low sales volumes.
Personally I’m shooting with a D7500 and it does pretty much everything I need. It’s mostly due to weight. But I will probably add a D500 soon. I don’t need all those wizbang features. I just need solid AF.
Steve Spencer wrote:
Correct. The D500 is a DSLR so of course it doesn't have a blackout free viewfinder and it doesn't have quality silent shooting, but neither did the flagship D5 or D6 DSLRs. To me what makes the D500 so compelling is how it was competitive with the flagship cameras of the time on almost all features, but simply had an APS-C sensor. To pull that off in a mirrorless camera you need a stacked sensor APS-C sensor, and that isn't going to come cheap.
Steve Spencer wrote:
Correct. The D500 is a DSLR so of course it doesn't have a blackout free viewfinder and it doesn't have quality silent shooting, but neither did the flagship D5 or D6 DSLRs. To me what makes the D500 so compelling is how it was competitive with the flagship cameras of the time on almost all features, but simply had an APS-C sensor. To pull that off in a mirrorless camera you need a stacked sensor APS-C sensor, and that isn't going to come cheap.
Definitely true but for some and perhaps many applications, a mirrorless Z90 on the AF level of the Z9, might actually make more sense than a Z9 even if it's priced at $3500 instead of the Z9's $5500, as long as it still has significantly better AF than the other non Z9 FF models. That's especially true if it's lighter. The Z9 is already 500g heavier than the D500, so I think a mirrorless Z90 that is maybe 100g lighter than a D500 would be a very compelling travel birding package paired with a 500pf or the upcoming 200-600.
When I can fill the frame with my D810 and that 500 I long for nothing else. 
