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 p.5 #5 · Nikon's new strategy....sounds good to me... | |
Max Power wrote:
Are phone cameras really eating into DSLR sales? I am not sure that they are. Let's think about the markets for a bit.
Are you suggesting I didn't think about it? I have thought about it a lot. 
DSLR sales grew exponentially over film body sales early on for a number of reasons. One, I think that users could now shoot hundreds of images with no film and developing costs, so digital was a bargain. I quit film for a decade because of costs, I jumped back in when the D70 was affordable. Digital brought me back to the hobby. Also, being a new technology, tons people were upgrading because of the exponential technology growth. Manufacturers weren't selling to new DSLR customers at this point, they were selling to the same people that bought previous versions, making the growth of the *number of photographers* stats a little misleading. It is very similar to home PC sales, where you had to upgrade every 2 years to keep up with software development, etc. Now, DSLRs are in the same position. It is a fairly mature technology, like PCs or smart phones. The same customers don't automatically upgrade any more. And I feel THAT is the reason for the decline in DSLR sales, not smart phones. In reality, since the technology is pretty well vetted, we are returning to sales rates reminiscent of the film days.
Smart phones are a market segment that I don't really feel affects DSLR sales much at all, because smart phone photographers were at best, P&S shooters or in most cases, not shooters at all. How many people do you think you see shooting everyday life on their phone would have ever considered carrying a camera of any sort everywhere they go? I would guess 98% just wouldn't be taking pictures if their already paid for phone didn't have a camera in it. I read a stat that there were more pictures taken in a month last year than there were in the first 100 years of photography combined. That isn't because more people wanted to be involved in photography as a hobby, it was because a tool was put in their hand to make it painfully easy.
So, in regards to Chez's concern that adding smart phone technology to a DSLR would not convert smart phone users to DSLR users, he is right, but that completely misses the point, IMO. Adding that technology has a better chance of getting present DSLR users to upgrade, a category of people that I feel are responsible for the DSLR sales decline in the first place. And that would be a good thing.
Clearly, the P&S category has been decimated by smart phones, as it probably should. The new phones have a P&S built in. It's kinda like how people no longer have to pay for the Garmin app for their phone now that Google maps is free.
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In my post I stated that DSLR's *and* P&S were being affected, yes I would say P&S are a major loser and DSLRs less so because DSLR's aren't really the same market segment. However, I do think they are being affected all the same. Your reasoning about camera maturity is a valid one, but I still contend that camera phones are eating into that market somewhat and part of that maturity and lack of DSLR sales is that people with phones are simply not upgrading their DSLR. Take away the phones and you would see more DSLR sales for sure. As I said, my 3 kids all had a lower end DSLR and they do not use them now at all, all they use is their camera phone, it is convenient, portable and it is always with them. I would suggest there are many who do the same and that number is growing.
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