Mishu01
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 p.1 #19 · Nikon PMA 2010 Predictions | |
Well, I really hope Thom Hogan, Nikon rumors and you to be "true prophets" but for now I show "the unbelief of Thomas" based only on my own considerations:
a. excepting niche products like fisheyes, macros, T&S and long teles for sport and wildlife, Nikon lost completely the interest on pro grade primes for a very long time. While 35mm/1.8 DX and 50mm/f1.4 FX shows good optical qualities, they look cheap and for no reason can be considered pro lenses. That's why so many people stick with Sigma 30mm and 50mm, with the old Nikon 50/1.2 AIS or with VC 40/2 and 58/1.4 in the proximity of focals. Oh, yeah, and with Zeiss glass on 35mmm and 50mm. If on the most used focals (35 and 50) Nikon lost completely the war with third parties, this shows clear their lack of interest for primes. I personally am a big fan of primes and with every day I shoot less and less zooms, but my kit is full with old Nikon MF or AF-D lenses, and in equal measure with Voigtlanders, Sigma and Zeiss. Where are the new prograde AF-S primes from Nikon? I hope they will be launched this month but I doubt seriously.
b. it seems that Nikon is concentrating on consumer zooms, because is a big market for entry level users that are not ready to work with primes. They sell a lot here because every beginner, before to learn how to use his kit lens goes to shop in order to extend the focal range... And Nikon does not want these people to look for third parties because is a big portion from the market. So I'm waiting Nikon to bring in this area, both improvements and new things.
c. it seems that Nikon is also concentrating on the pro zooms that are required by professionals and advanced hobbists, people who are ready to upgrade from VRI to VRII instantly, paying big bucks for that. Also these zooms need to use the new sensors at the full power, so lot of continuous work overhere. Here is also a major interest to not loose the competition in IQ with Canon and others. For sure we can expect new things and/or improvements here.
d. primes, especially fast primes are very important for hobbists and for people that have a long experience with old SLR's on film, these who trade used lenses, looking carefully for old glass, enjoying very much to shoot an AI lens, etc. Unfortunately there is no absolutely any sign to show that Nikon's marketers are considering profitable this area. The only thing we can expect here sometimes in the future is a recosmeticization and translation from AF-D to AF-S of some lenses that sell very well, like 85/1.4.
e. the simple fact that Voigtlander and Zeiss were chipping their lenses for Nikon mount it's a clear sign that they know that Nikon abandoned this path...
f. One possible and expected move for Nikon is to start produce f4 zooms like Canon, to fit the gap between consumer and pro zooms. In the same time Nikon can ignore this as well, putting pressure on users to go directly to pro zooms... and I know lots of beginners who goes on this path, bringing good money for Nikon but being unable to really use the power of the stuff they own.
Last but not least... again I hope to be a false prophet and tell you that I'd be spending lot of money on good AF-S Nikon primes... let's hope that one day Nikon will honour our expectations... But I don't stay to wait that, this is why I went on Voigtlanders, Sigma and just recently on Zeiss.
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Typical Nikon! If we are lucky, 
No dreams, I could not care less as I'm not looking for anything right now ... at least not anything on that list. If anything, I want an updated 300 f/4 with VR but you did not see that on my prediction as I don't think it will happen. My list of predictions is based completely on what I think are the next logical steps to updating the line-up combined with a dash of what I think Nikon's logic is.