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Archive 2009 · Nikon In 5 Years???

EB-1
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p.3 #1 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Unfortuantely there will probably be more of the "throw in the kitchen sink" philosophy, rather than putting efforts towards improving the basics of camera IQ and replacing aging lenses. I'm not expecting anything crazy in five years, but who knows.

EBH

Nov 07, 2009 at 07:56 PM

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p.3 #2 · Nikon In 5 Years???

R. Francois wrote:
in 5 years anyone can be as good as Ansel...

NOT...

+1 Photography will be dead the day every photo taken is a piece of art,

However, right now we can all take a step back from technology and give an old form of photography a try.

Nov 07, 2009 at 10:23 PM

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p.3 #3 · Nikon In 5 Years???

I'd love a g'zillion megapixels in a full frame camera. Cropping birds is no mean trick and bird photography is my passion.

I can't remember who said it but it has turned out to be true. CPU complexity, and everything that goes with it, doubles every 18 months. Given that, we're looking at advances in the realm of 8 times the complexity that we have today in five years. I'm not sure what Nikon has in the offing in the next couple of months, but 8 tmes the advancement from that could be fantastic.

Like others, I think that full frame will make it down to entry level DSLRs and maybe high end point and shoots withing 5 years. I think EVIL cameras will be bridge models with full frame sensors. The high end stuff will probably be a medium format sensor with a new set of lenses for it. I think APS-C will fade out to entry and mid level point and shoots.

Many point to the fact that additional advancements in sensor technology will keep crop sensors as viable, but those same advancements will be there for larger sensors as well. Many point out that large sensors are still much more expensive, but the same holds true for computers. They get very cheap very fast. If there were only a 5% difference in the cost to make an APS-C size or full frame, who wouldn't switch? The vast percentage would, I think, and the hold outs would in time.

Companies who have locked themselves into crop sensors will probably either fail or tick off their base by changing mounts again. I'm talking Olympus who have locked themselves into that small 4/3rd sensor and a mount that goes with it. Pentax has so much red ink right now, they've dropped full frame development, but can jump back in if they have to, and I think they will. I'm not sure how long Hoya will put up with that red ink, though. Hoya didn't buy them so much for the camera division but the medical arm which is quite profitable I hear.

The above is purely my opinion and speculation, not flame bait.

Nov 07, 2009 at 11:18 PM

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p.3 #4 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Etadam wrote:
In five years? We'll only need one forum named "Canon"...

If that happened I'd mite stop doing photography.

Nov 08, 2009 at 02:27 AM

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p.3 #5 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Guidenet wrote:

I can't remember who said it but it has turned out to be true. CPU complexity, and everything that goes with it, doubles every 18 months.

Moore’s Law: The number of devices on a chip doubles every 18 months.

Nov 08, 2009 at 03:14 AM

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p.3 #6 · Nikon In 5 Years???

davidnholtjr wrote:
Etadam wrote:
In five years? We'll only need one forum named "Canon"...

If that happened I'd mite stop doing photography.

Actually Canon has a 1x-5x (65 MP-E) which is good for that specialized purpose. For smaller subjects than that, you need to look at microscopic systems.

EBH

Nov 08, 2009 at 03:29 AM

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p.3 #7 · Nikon In 5 Years???

theletterj wrote:
The fact that crop bodies have become ubiquitous in the last 5 years, I think the APS-C sensor cameras will become the new bridge cameras and everything between them and point and shoots will fall off. Crop formats were really all there was 5 years ago, and today plenty of people (not me) refer to the D300 as a consumer or novice body. It seems that today, and crop format bodies are considered amateur. But with the proliferation of D40s and D90s in the mainstream, that sector will eventually be absorbed altogether. Thusly, most of the people here will be shooting FX bodies in 5 years. DX won't die, it will just shift to a different market, as it's already been doing.

Nikon and Canon used their entry level models to bring dSLR to the masses and now the masses want more.

As for the leaps in technology, protographers will benefit the most. I'm guessing that we'll be approaching the resolution and dynamic range of some of the very best 35mm film. AF will be even faster and more accurate, and ISOs will be cleaner and higher. Overall, we'll have a few sensors spread over more body styles and more choices, soft of like how if was with film.

Hardly, many, many Pro wildlife photographers shoot dx or "crop" in their brand solely.

Nov 08, 2009 at 04:54 AM

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p.3 #8 · Nikon In 5 Years???

LeifG wrote:
zoomer200400 wrote:
We will see built into the bodies (some of these possibly in the D4):

1) Wi-Fi
2) HDR
3) Focus Stacking
4) Reduction in size of the body

1, 2 and 4 would be nice. For 4 to be really useful it would be nice to have some small high quality primes such as 28mm F2.8, whereas many of the current small primes are not good.

3 is not possible as in general focus stacking cannot work.

Actually focus stacking would be rather easy from a programming aspect, we already have auto focus so all we would need would be to have a bracket type setting that moved focus instead of exposure and stacked them in camera.

The problem would be needing a bigger processor but that will come in time also.

Nov 08, 2009 at 05:00 AM

Rodolfo Paiz
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p.3 #9 · Nikon In 5 Years???

Go4Long wrote:
In reality you can make a 40 X 60 print out of an 8 megapixel file.

Yes. If you have a good exposure, sharp capture, and an excellent image that is properly and well processed, yes. Your original 8MP image at 40x60 yields roughly 58 dpi from the original file, with more resolution available by interpolation.

But in reality I can also make a much nicer, cleaner, more realistic, more detailed, richer, absolutely superior, far more attractive 40x60 print from 24 megapixels. The D3x is able to give me a 40x60 print at 100 dpi, which means a lot less interpolation required to reach a given final desired dpi (e.g. 300) and thus an unquestionably better image.

It would require a 54 MP sensor to give you 150 dpi at those 40x60 inches, at which point you could print on canvas at 150 dpi or do a single interpolation pass to get 300 dpi on paper prints.

To get a 40x60 print at 300 dpi without interpolation, just pure and unadulterated pixels, will require a 216 MP image. Now, that image will be overkill for most other purposes... but the example must fit the point to be made. If you want larger prints, then you definitely can benefit from more MP. For other purposes, even 2MP is enough.

Nov 08, 2009 at 05:28 AM

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p.3 #10 · Nikon In 5 Years???

traveler wrote:
Oh I'm quite certain in 5 years we'll have 32mp FF cameras as plentiful as the 6-10mp cameras of today. The noise levels at ISO6400 will emulate ISO400. No doubt dynamic range will have increased considerably by then as well. Lets hope the lens offerings keep up. I also hope the prices of these toys will drop as well. $3,000-$5,000 a pop is a bit much for my budget to absorb on a regular basis.
Among MP, ISO, and DR, I want DR to improve significantly. Would it be awesome to have 20 stop DR?

Nov 08, 2009 at 04:35 PM

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p.3 #11 · Nikon In 5 Years???

90 5.0 wrote:
LeifG wrote:
zoomer200400 wrote:
We will see built into the bodies (some of these possibly in the D4):

1) Wi-Fi
2) HDR
3) Focus Stacking
4) Reduction in size of the body

1, 2 and 4 would be nice. For 4 to be really useful it would be nice to have some small high quality primes such as 28mm F2.8, whereas many of the current small primes are not good.

3 is not possible as in general focus stacking cannot work.

Actually focus stacking would be rather easy from a programming aspect, we already have auto focus so all we would need would be to have a bracket type setting that moved focus instead of exposure and stacked them in camera.

The problem would be needing a bigger processor but that will come in time also.

No, in general focus stacking does not work. It only works well in certain cases (a plane subject at an angle say), and I'm not sure consumers would be happy with images full of weird halos.

Nov 08, 2009 at 11:25 PM

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