Lets get real here, 5 years... 100M sensor ISO clean at 100K no AA filter needed, Speed at 11 FPS for jpg type files but a new file type that beats jpg in size and proformance like a super raw lossless hi compressed file. Web aware bodies that upload to your web server or space using newer WIFI and cellular tech.
I think you're confusing an ability to use it with a need for it.
In reality you can make a 40 X 60 print out of an 8 megapixel file. The average file on the web is never viewed at much more than 800 pixels wide. So what do you need 50 megapixels for? unless you're shooting wildlife with an 18 - 55 and cropping 80% of your original image size off, it's not necessary.
a 40x60 so so print. i regularly stitch 200MP files just for that kind of printing. a 50MP body is something i would like. i'm more likely to get a 40MP one first though. a photographer friend of mine who sometimes posts here and who makes gallery prints all the time thinks 1GP is the right amount to capture. he makes 40x60 fairly often and sometimes a lot larger. another photographer friend who makes his living from it regularly prints 40x60 also but he likes to stay at about 20MP. yet another one of mine goes to 40x60 occasionally but uses a 39MP medium format back and would like a lot more.
Herb...
Go4Long wrote:
In reality you can make a 40 X 60 print out of an 8 megapixel file.
dasrocket wrote:
In 5 years we may have variable dynamic range sensors with each photosite adjusting exposure: set the max and min limits, and the sensor will expose within; no more blown highlights, lost shadows.
Exactly. I've been predicting this for some time as well. I thought I was a genius until I saw someone else's patent for it.
I think there will be enormous improvements in sensor technology to the point where sensor sensitivity will become almost meaningless except in regards to reducing sensitivity to achieve a certain effect, similar to using neutral density filters.
I also think there will be vast improvements in color in all areas: the camera, printers, displays, etc., so that we can use new wide color gamuts.
And I think there will be technology to greatly improve video quality on DSLRs or their equivalents.
I see somewhat less progress on the lens front. I'd also like to see, but don't know if we will see, improvements in lighting technology where we can shoot and sync at just about any speed.
Five years from now we'll all have chips implanted in our heads that will allow us to transfer our experiences to some kind of storage medium. There won't be a need for still or video cameras, and all imaging will be done on a three dimensional basis. The storage mediums we do transfer our images to will be based on a breakthrough in bioengineering that allows us to not only duplicate our stored memories on disk, but retrieve them at will and present them in a variety of ways.
How about a line of gear designed for the wildlife photographer, or anyone who appreciates a compact, packable system with reach-
A high quality Titanium body fully weather sealed and rubber coated, say the size of a D40, housing a 12 MP 2.0 crop sensor, with a high performance processor allowing clean ISO 25,000 files. Matching 2.0 crop lenses that are designed to compliment the size of the new camera - IE light weight, between f2.8 and f4, with VR3. A system that would take high quality photos, but only take up half the weight and space of todays FF gear. Similar to what some makers are producing now, just with Nikon quality and features, and 5 year modern electronics.
Full Frame, 5 years modern, would still be available, with all its benifits, for those who do not place a premium of size, weight, or crop factor.
deadbolt wrote:
Modular bodies where the sensor & processor can be user upgraded. You buy a new sensor/processor instead of a whole new body every year.
Exactly what I was thinking. This would allow the user to customize the camera to exactly what they need.
I have a feeling more super zooms like the 18-200 will be released, however they will soon become faster while retaining the current size.
deadbolt wrote:
Modular bodies where the sensor & processor can be user upgraded. You buy a new sensor/processor instead of a whole new body every year.
Modularity increases cost, size and weight. And you also have the AF module, metering module, and possible changes to the power requirements. It's cheaper to stick with your camera for more than a year, and work on improving technique.
zoomer200400 wrote:
We will see built into the bodies (some of these possibly in the D4):
1) Wi-Fi
2) HDR
3) Focus Stacking
4) Reduction in size of the body
1, 2 and 4 would be nice. For 4 to be really useful it would be nice to have some small high quality primes such as 28mm F2.8, whereas many of the current small primes are not good.
3 is not possible as in general focus stacking cannot work.
in Five years the dominant player will be Sony and Panasonic on the low end and REd on the high end where Nikon used to be. It will all be video at insane high resolution. Still photography will be like film photography today. Still good for those behind the times, but considered quaint.
Nikon will be a niche player ... because they didn't see the winds of change and kept putting lousy video on top of 80's era body design instead of video cameras that are good for stills.
The future is with the electronic companies. I love Nikon ... but then I'm an old film fart, enjoying the twilight of what was. Enjoy your Nikons. Five years from now, this digital revolution will have moved on.
I think we can assume most present major players will still be here but the familiar dslr concept as we know it is going to give way to the compact large sensor camera in a big way.
Manufacturers are going to need to put something revolutionary on the store shelves and the compact mirrorless concept is going to capture low end to mid sales.
The biggest lag in performance is now dynamic range. Also, I can see camera gear becomming smaller, not larger. I have doubts we'll see 50mp sensors in five years. They don't have the lenses to support that kind of resolution. I also have doubts of much development money going into making more single focal lenses. (Exception of special purpose lenses such as macro, tilt'shift, etc.) Primes have increasingly become niche products as the image quality dramatically increased with (more convenient) zooms and camera ISO climbed high. It might be possible to make an f1.8 zoom in the smaller DX format. In the recent past Nikon has seemed to be able to come up with very few new pro lenses each year. Not sure they have the resources they need.
LeifG wrote:
1, 2 and 4 would be nice. For 4 to be really useful it would be nice to have some small high quality primes such as 28mm F2.8, whereas many of the current small primes are not good.
3 is not possible as in general focus stacking cannot work.
In 5 years they will be taking still images from video and we won't have a need for still cameras. Sad but true. All of the sports photogs will be out of a job.
Good thing I made the right choice the first time.