rscheffler Offline Upload & Sell: Off
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p.2 #17 · 19 August-watch the Canon statements!!!! | |
Jay Adeff wrote:
The 1D-MKIII replacement will be announced because:
1D announced Sep 2001 in time for the 2002 Winter Olympics.
1D-MkII announced Jan 2004 in time for the 2004 Summer Olympics.
1D-MkIIn announced Aug 2005 in time for the 2006 Winter Olympics.
1D-MkIII announced Feb 2007 allowing enough time for Nikon to kick Canon's butt for the 2008 Summer Olympics.
It's not too hard to figure out that the 1D-MkIV will be announced now in time for the 2010 Winter Olympics (hopefully not allowing enough time for Nikon to surprise them again).
I've always suspected that the Mark III was rushed into an earlier release to preempt the D3 and mute its impact on the recent Nikon to Canon switchers. But the AF debacle had the opposite effect, giving many a good reason to switch back. Whatever the reason, I don't think Canon could have waited much longer anyway since the IIn wasn't much of a change over the II and it would have been nearly four years without anything significant. I'm sure Canon knew Nikon had something coming...
The timing now is right for a Mark IV, or even a Mark IIIn (920k display, UDMA, increased buffer capacity, silent AF upgrade, would be my wish), in advance of the winter Olympics. If it is announced now, delivery will begin later in September or October and give sufficient time for production to ramp up and fill the early adopter orders. With the original 1D, deliveries didn't really start to trickle out until the end of November 2001, which didn't leave a lot of time before the Olympics. Back when the Mark III was announced, even with the general knowledge that there could be some problems with it, supply was very tight for over six months. If a Mark IV announcement is made in a couple months from now, then it will be that much more difficult to get enough of the cameras out there. Admittedly, the number of photographers at the Olympics will not be the entire world supply that Canon can manufacture by that time, but the earlier the announcement, the more time everyone covering the games will have to get to know the camera better. I wouldn't want to go into an endurance event like the Olympics with a brand new, relatively unknown camera. Plus, considering the general vibe about the Mark III, there's a good chance that if the IV is proven to be a great performer, there will be a lot of pent up demand from a lot of Canon users sitting on the fence about the III - either those who never bought one, or those who have the camera but are still not entirely satisfied with it (yours truly included).
Given the recent 200 f/2 and 800 f/5.6, we could also see the rest of the super-tele line upgraded, or at least the 300 & 400, which are by far the most popular sports telephotos.
A new 70-200 2.8 IS would make a lot of sense too since that lens has a fairly so-so reputation among many sports photographers and is outclassed by the f/4 IS in all ways except maximum aperture. Plus Nikon just updated theirs. A long shot, but maybe a 135L IS...? Maybe f/1.8 to rival the Zeiss/Sony?
It will be interesting to see in a couple days who got their guesses the closest.
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