Does anyone know if memory prices will fall soon? It seems that the slug-slow MLC types are dirt cheap but UDMA cards are still pricey. For example 16GB EX IV is still $235.
you may already know this, but if not, keep checking prices at www.newegg.com. They have very competitive prices, great customer service, and often run specials on memory.
Dec 28, 2008 at 02:52 PM
Lars Johnsson Offline • • • • • • • Upload & Sell: Off
howardm4 wrote:
do you really need/want 16G on a card? Thats a lot to lose in case the card fails in some way
Amazon has the 8G IV card for $90 (and 4G for $42)
I would not trust those lowball sellers on Amazon. There are some complaints of fake cards. 8GB is the smallest I like for 1Ds MK III, but future cameras like D3X will need more capacity. 16GB is a good size for now.
How much difference does the new UDMA cards make in real use. I just got the 50D and it uses them. I have normally the SanDisk Extreme III CF cards....Thanks ...Rich Hi!!! Lars!!
Rob Galbraith's CF card database tells you. with a suitable camera, it can be up to 50% faster, i.e. close to 30MB/s vs 20MB/s. some cameras are better than others at taking advantage of UDMA even when all support it.
Rich Swanner wrote:
How much difference does the new UDMA cards make in real use. I just got the 50D and it uses them. I have normally the SanDisk Extreme III CF cards....Thanks ...Rich Hi!!! Lars!!
I'm in the memory business - selling memory to OEMs for one of the major memory manufacturers (semiconductor guys not card mfgs - semiconductor cost is what drives the price).
FLASH pricing is pretty much a rock bottom prices now. It is forecast to begin increasing in Q2 or Q3 2009. The bleeding is so huge with the FLASH producers right now that if the price drops any more, competitors will exit the business permanently or fail completely (bankruptcy). Most of the major producers have announced that they are shutting down factories for 10+ days in Q1. Less supply means the price will go up.
Short answer, there is little downside to buying memory now. There is a smaller chance the price will drop (and the drop will not be much) vs will it increase. When it goes up, prices will jump up probably 20% or more.
EB-1 wrote:
I would not trust those lowball sellers on Amazon. There are some complaints of fake cards. 8GB is the smallest I like for 1Ds MK III, but future cameras like D3X will need more capacity. 16GB is a good size for now.
EBH
Not the case, fake cards out there yes. But not the case cards being sold by amazon.com. Never had a problem with them.
chesapeake
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p.1 #6 · Sandisk flash memory
The problem is not specific to Sandisk. The slowdown in the Global economy has reduced the demand from all flash memory makers by an estimated 38%. None of these companies will be able to meet earning estimates and so their stock prices will fall, even more than for the rest of the global chip makers market. Typically companies drop prices in order to keep cash flow up (got to pay them bonuses) and end users can expect to see dramatic price drops. Some technical analysits who specialize in flash memory predict a further 40% decline in prices by the 1st of next year. One of the major buyers of the new flash memory was to have been the PC industry. PC production is expected to be down over 25% during the next quarter. All of these elements conspire to drive prices in the photography manufacturing industry lower. Look not only for Canon's pricres to fall but for flash memory and all related computer/chip prices to decline as well. Of course the effect will be most pronounced in the U.S. as the dollar strengthen against all foreign currenies. Some evidence for this can be seen already, Sandisk's most recent rebate offered 8 Gb of memory for a net .43cents/Gb after rebate. Unheard of yes but a sign of things to come.
Cheers-Chesapeake
Oct 28, 2008 at 11:07 AM
I hope I'm not violating any forum rule but I wrote the above over two months ago. As for John's opinion that memory prices will increase, not even a remote possibility until the global economy is back to "growth". Thiis isn't in the nearterm forcast so sit back and wait for your dream card to become even cheaper. Happy New Year.
Zander Alberts wrote:
So what has been the influence for flash to get so cheap right now? Is it the interest in UDMA or
It's complicated but it is basically that these factories (fabs) get built in $5B chunks so capacity is added in massive amounts which drives prices down. On top of that, you have about 10 guys all who think they will get 20% market share - that math obviously doesn't work. The other impact is the economy - the drop there plus that it takes a couple of months to turn the fab's output back makes for big surplus and hence low cost.
That all said, the growth rate on memory is always high (bit growth rate runs 40 to 70% annually) so it doesn't take all that long to eat up the excess capacity. Look for the capacity situation to start turning around mid 2009 and probably be into a big shortage situation in 2010.
oh, and by the way, I can assure you that there is virtually no one getting bonuses in the IC industry this year. In point of fact unemployment is terrible, several suppliers are on the verge of bankruptcy - there is big time blood in the streets.
