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Archive 2013 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board
  
 
ken.vs.ryu
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p.3 #1 · p.3 #1 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


Stills from videos will become more prevalent. The industry will need new af lenses for this.


Jan 31, 2013 at 03:45 PM
goosemang
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p.3 #2 · p.3 #2 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


Andrew Gough wrote:
I was having lunch the other day with a friend who runs a very large online camera store. He remarked how mirrorless is a bust with low uptake. I was quite surprised by this, as said there seem to be a lot of people interested in it on the web. He mentioned that uptake levels are very high in Asia, slow in Europe, and very slow in North America. It seems that, here at least, people are resistant to ditching their investment. They simply do not want to spend the money duplicating a system. Perhaps, at FM, we are
...Show more

yeah, this is the thing. you get in the forums here and elsewhere and you almost think that our feelings on the issue matter.

everybody is all up in arms about something like the AF system on the canon 6d. it's crippled junk! canon is dying! meanwhile the shit is flying off the shelves.



Jan 31, 2013 at 04:01 PM
riotshield
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p.3 #3 · p.3 #3 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


I see cameras going the same way as other portable electronics like cell phones and music players. Japanese makers did well until the last decade with their products speckled with small buttons and not so attractive interfaces. Then Apple came along and shifted everything to fewer buttons and touchscreens. Mirrorless cameras still have the old problem of small buttons and bad/laggy interfaces, and I don't see it changing unless an outside maker like Apple or Samsung makes a compelling new line of cameras with touchscreens that operate seemlessly. But I think it will happen in the next few years.


Jan 31, 2013 at 04:41 PM
sebboh
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p.3 #4 · p.3 #4 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


carstenw wrote:
If you are going mirrorless anyway, then maybe consider the Nikon 300/4 and 300/4.5 versions, which all have aperture rings. Or are you hoping to AF?


actually, it's the IS that has me interested. AF is a necessary evil to get IS i'm afraid, but i'll never use it. i can't stand AF at 300mm (or any focal length really) on a dslr, i can't imagine it would be anything other than abysmal on mirrorless.

i've not been impressed by what i've seen from the nikkor 300/4.5s though i seem to remember douglas thinking one was substantially better than the others? the 300/4 looks good, but i don't feel like dealing with the AF focus ring if it's not going to give me something extra.

hmm, if oly improves their manual focus implementation maybe i'll just pick up an omd strictly for birding Ė i loved their IBIS for birding.

Gary Clennan wrote:
Or just buy a bigger diaper bag....


i'll keep an eye out for something, i have my doubts about the wisdom the inevitable situation that would arise of me holding a two year old in one hand and 400/2.8 in the other.



Jan 31, 2013 at 05:17 PM
freaklikeme
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p.3 #5 · p.3 #5 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


Aren't most two year-olds sticky enough to attach without holding?

If not, I'd say the obvious solution is a retractable leash.



Jan 31, 2013 at 06:14 PM
zhangyue
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p.3 #6 · p.3 #6 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


It is a good reading from this discuss. After see you guys thought, I think I need take away some of my early immature thought: DSLR wonít go away/die. What is the market share they have right now? Letís assume 75%, and all P&S and mirrorless 25%. The ratio will be reversed. I think that is a more reasonable guess. Only because:

1. people have huge investment in their glass
2. Long glass AF focus
3. Some people still prefer holding big body
4. Professional, job requirement.

About ergonomics of DSLR vs Mirrorless

1. I donít feel MLLCs has disadvantage. If you remove brick size 35mm 1.4 from DSLR, put leica or fuji 35mm, you will find you donít need D800 size body to hold it comfortable. I donít have any complain but only appreciation on NEX7 during my trip.
2. As for button, I much prefer my Leica has dedicated everything on body, it is also a reason I keep an eye on Fuji system right now. They know how to design a tool for photography. Though, I canít complain the way canikon design its body, not only for saving cost, but it is mostly for durability, and weather proof. Otherwise, I think we can have F3 ergonomics D800.
3. Donít give me another iPhone like apple camera; it will be a disaster if every camera looks like square box. Though, it might sell well. Donknow.

About popularity of MLLC thing around world.
You will find no surprise North America is the slowest section of this movement. No disrespect but fact:

1. People here are wealthy enough to have big investment in their Canikon lens.
2. Look the size of house and size of cars here. No wonder people will like big camera as well. I do notice size of car get shrink as well here in past ten years, so do camera I guess

As for how accurately the prediction our discuss here in Alt community. This is the part I have least confidence We are niche ourselves. Though we have more knowledge about camera/lens than most of people and know what is better, what is needed. But will market response the same way? I donít know.



Jan 31, 2013 at 06:20 PM
rscheffler
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p.3 #7 · p.3 #7 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


zhangyue wrote:
As for how accurately the prediction our discuss here in Alt community. This is the part I have least confidence We are niche ourselves. Though we have more knowledge about camera/lens than most of people and know what is better, what is needed. But will market response the same way? I donít know.


Niche manufacturers will respond to such markets, but the prices may not remain attractive to the average person. Look at Cosina or SLR Magic and some of the lenses they're currently marketing. MF mFT, IMO is pretty niche.

In respect to the general consumer market, I think Apple is a good example. In the 90s Apple was also about simplicity, compared to other computing options of the time, but diehard Apple users were like alt forum members here - technically inclined and into the gear Apple offered to get the job done. Look at Apple now - very consumer centric. Nice UI, even more simplicity, all about making it easier for the layman to get the results he wants. Meanwhile they've pretty much abandoned the high end hardware side of the creative market.

It's also the evolution of photography ever since the 1800s - making it easier for the layman. Wet plate to roll film. Kodak's Brownie. Polaroid. 126, 110, Disc, APS formats. No matter how bad some of these were from a technical standpoint, it didn't matter if it was easier. And easier is about profit. Make it more accessible and more will buy. Notice also that along with simplicity, the historical trend has been towards ever smaller imaging formats. Why should that trend change?

So, to make predictions: what future developments will make photography easier?

Super high MP combined with short range high IQ zoom to create hybrid digital/optical zooming in much smaller packages. Or even no optical zoom.
Always on image capture - pull the still from the timeline.
Plenoptic/lightfield image capture - refocus after the shot.
On-chip, in-camera 'HDR.'

All of this is already available, but none all in one camera that is a smartphone sized, non interchangeable lens package.

For the general consumer, photography is becoming just one more 'app' to access on their device. Unfortunately for the photography market and us enthusiasts, it will be bad for hardware-dedicated manufacturers.

We now see a lot of MILC development because it's the logical progression from SLRs, but from a manufacturer's perspective, it's even more attractive, I think. The MILC cameras are less complex to assemble, meaning cheaper, meaning potentially more accessible to more buyers. And, they retain the main advantage of SLRs - interchangeable lenses. From a photographer's point of view, this means better control over images. From the manufacturer's point of view, this means more things to sell and from which to make profits. But as these cameras become simpler, the divide from other imaging devices will diminish, making differentiation for the average consumer more difficult. My guess is the average consumer remains consistent with history and will decide based on convenience.

It will be interesting to see how long the traditional camera manufacturers can draw out the perceived advantage of ILCs. Currently there is a huge boom in mega-zoom cameras hitting the market to fight the smartphone onslaught, which will also bleed into MILC territory.

Not that ILCs will completely disappear, just as 8x10 cameras haven't completely disappeared.

It could be that some of the niche brands will be better suited to these changes because they already cater to an entrenched clientele that won't be interested in the same feature sets desired by the average consumer. It's quite possible Canikon will eventually also head this way, when/if they're severely impacted by market loss from smartphones, falling back to their core expertise, reincarnated as much smaller organizations. But if they do, expect significantly higher prices.



Jan 31, 2013 at 07:21 PM
andyjaggy82
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p.3 #8 · p.3 #8 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


Interesting thread.

I was actually just thinking this morning that my next camera purchase, and all of my purchases in the future might be mirrorless. As an avid hiker I am always looking to loose some weigh. Give me a mirrorless with a viewfinder and great IQ and I am in. I don't need fast autofocus and all sorts of fancy stuff for landscape shooting.



Jan 31, 2013 at 08:54 PM
zhangyue
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p.3 #9 · p.3 #9 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


Ron, I am not sure the about future form of camera as you listed as I really haven't thought about all those things yet, I am too optimistic but I tend to agree what you say about future trend. which is pretty sad.

Most people here have high expectation about future MILC introduction. But seems most manufacture don't care what we think, what we need, but how consumer market think, how to make money quick.

I kind of know that already what is going to happen. Good sound music system is pretty hard to come by without cost a fortune, Stereo system is gone already years ago with cheap Japanese 5.1/7.2 home theater system booming, and thanks for Apple's ipod ix, iy, all those is**t make it gone even faster. leave those niche of niche to survive. but music is become lifeless. I really hope future picture capture device don't go that routine.

But good thing is as long as there is market no matter how niche it is, there will be manufacture to chime in. Like Leica, they seems just fine, and Fuji is doing pretty good at their X-line. I am a little disappointed about Sony's position so far, but I don't blame what they do as they are big boy need mass market.

For the near future, I feel pretty safe to say APS-C MILC will gain more and more market share. I don't put high hope for FF yet, as it might not as obvious to most manufacture from cost, money making and benefit of it given current APS-C performance.





Jan 31, 2013 at 09:00 PM
sebboh
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p.3 #10 · p.3 #10 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


zhangyue wrote:
It is a good reading from this discuss. After see you guys thought, I think I need take away some of my early immature thought: DSLR wonít go away/die. What is the market share they have right now? Letís assume 75%, and all P&S and mirrorless 25%. The ratio will be reversed. I think that is a more reasonable guess.


i believe you have this reversed. interchangeable lens cameras (ILCs) have something like 10% market share and p&s cameras have 90%. But, ILC sales are actually increasing a little (at least when lumped with mirrorless cameras) while sales of p&s cameras are dropping like a rock due to the increased competence and ubiquitousness of camera phones.

within the ILC market something like 90% of the people only own one lens. it is this group of people that decide the fate of dslrs. people with a large investment of lenses will mostly stay with dslrs, but they are not a mass market, they are a niche. movement within the group of kit lens only ILC owners won't be as fast as movement in the niches because they don't tend to upgrade as often.

my guess is that over the next 5 years many of these people will move to mirrorless cameras. this is already starting to happen in markets where smaller is often considered better (e.g. japan). it will take longer in europe and even longer in the US where it is traditionally thought that bigger implies better. for mirrorless to really take hold amongst the kit lens crowd here there needs to be a marketing campaign to "educate" us that iq is as good or better in mirrorless cameras as it is in consumer dsrls.

companies that make dslrs will be faced with the decision of whether to focus on the high profit margin niche markets or the large volume low profit margin markets. only the strongest companies will be able to stay in both and once the shakeup is complete there will probably be fewer camera companies than there are now. there will almost certainly be a high profit margin niche market for high end mirrorless cameras in addition to pro dslrs. i doubt the market for low profit margin dslrs will remain.



Jan 31, 2013 at 10:48 PM
 

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mpmendenhall
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p.3 #11 · p.3 #11 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


Perhaps mirrorless bodies will take over, then someone will re-invent the Visoflex


Jan 31, 2013 at 10:56 PM
zhangyue
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p.3 #12 · p.3 #12 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


Hi, Derek, 10% vs 90% ? that is huge I don't realize the reality.
That is units sold (most likely) or total market value?

But you are right, I don't realize Sony's NEX might eat a lot market share from P&S than DSLR as I thought. somehow, I totally ignore the P&S section.




Jan 31, 2013 at 11:40 PM
sebboh
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p.3 #13 · p.3 #13 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


zhangyue wrote:
Hi, Derek, 10% vs 90% ? that is huge I don't realize the reality.
That is units sold (most likely) or total market value?

But you are right, I don't realize Sony's NEX might eat a lot market share from P&S than DSLR as I thought.



units sold. i have no idea what the revenue distribution is. the units sold might not quite be 10:1 p&s versus ILC anymore too, the last couple years have really been hard on p&s sales.

it's always easy for us as individuals to think that our personal experience gives us a good sample of the country or world, but the truth is people tend to have little substantive interaction with others outside of their friends, family, and work where people tend to be much more similar than a random sample of the population would be.



Jan 31, 2013 at 11:55 PM
philip_pj
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p.3 #14 · p.3 #14 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


only too true, sebboh. I agree with what you say, and maybe we can add that high end mirrorless might act as the education factor, as many aspirants look to the higher end products to take their cues from. It will take time though. Is it just me, or are the lower end DSLR models looking really cheesy to other people these days?




Feb 01, 2013 at 02:34 AM
goosemang
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p.3 #15 · p.3 #15 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


goosemang wrote:
yeah, this is the thing. you get in the forums here and elsewhere and you almost think that our feelings on the issue matter.

everybody is all up in arms about something like the AF system on the canon 6d. it's crippled junk! canon is dying! meanwhile the shit is flying off the shelves.


case in point, look at this article:

http://www.dpreview.com/articles/0336328811/cp-2013-interview-with-canons-masaya-maeda

interview with the CEO of Canon imaging. look at the comments section; it's amazing how ignorant people are. perhaps they should have interviewed some forum trolls instead of the man who is responsible for the most cameras currently on the world market.



Feb 01, 2013 at 11:30 AM
carstenw
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p.3 #16 · p.3 #16 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


goosemang wrote:
case in point, look at this article:

http://www.dpreview.com/articles/0336328811/cp-2013-interview-with-canons-masaya-maeda

interview with the CEO of Canon imaging. look at the comments section; it's amazing how ignorant people are. perhaps they should have interviewed some forum trolls instead of the man who is responsible for the most cameras currently on the world market.


I am not sure what your point was, but some comments:

  1. The link you posted is just a marketing blurb from some random Canon guy. It doesn't clear up any of the points discussed here, other than saying that the uptake on mirrorless in the States is very slow. The Canon guy is wrong about Europe though, I am pretty sure, although he might about Canon mirrorless cameras; I see lots around here, and more all the time, but mostly MFT and NEX, with a little Nikon 1 thrown in.
  2. What are "the most cameras currently on the market", i.e. which models and segments are you talking about?
  3. What numbers are you quoting when you say he is the man responsible for "the most cameras currently on the market", i.e. please define what you mean with "most"?



Feb 01, 2013 at 11:40 AM
goosemang
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p.3 #17 · p.3 #17 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


the point is that people like us (photo forum posters, etc.) think that we somehow know more about the industry than those running it. which is patently absurd.


Feb 01, 2013 at 12:09 PM
goosemang
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p.3 #18 · p.3 #18 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


i was illustrating that Andrew Gough's statment from the previous page that, "Perhaps, at FM, we are a very small but active community vs the broad scale market" is extremely accurate and frequently ignored. we're not terribly important and we're often incorrect.


Feb 01, 2013 at 12:11 PM
kewlcanon
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p.3 #19 · p.3 #19 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


Maeda is not a random Canon guy . Canon has a lot of their 'people' all over the world .

carstenw wrote:
I am not sure what your point was, but some comments:

  1. The link you posted is just a marketing blurb from some random Canon guy. It doesn't clear up any of the points discussed here, other than saying that the uptake on mirrorless in the States is very slow. The Canon guy is wrong about Europe though, I am pretty sure, although he might about Canon mirrorless cameras; I see lots around here, and more all the time, but mostly MFT and NEX, with a little Nikon 1 thrown in.
  2. What are "the most cameras currently on the market", i.e. which models
  3. What numbers are you quoting when you say he is the man responsible for "the most cameras currently on the market", i.e. please define what you mean with "most"?
...Show more



Feb 01, 2013 at 12:24 PM
carstenw
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p.3 #20 · p.3 #20 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board


kewlcanon wrote:
Maeda is not a random Canon guy .


Did he design some of their most successful cameras? Did he design some of their most successful lenses? Did he single-mindedly orchestrate some amazingly successful strategy which put them on top? No, no, no => random guy, org chart filler

Canon has a lot of their 'people' all over the world .

Err... So does everyone else. What is the point of this sentence?



Feb 01, 2013 at 12:38 PM
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