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zhangyue
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p.1 #1 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

I feel my desire to bring DSLR with me everywhere getting less and less. Even I don’t have Leica M, I will just bring NEX or XE/XPRO-1 or maybe MFT for most stuff I do.

I can only think of advantage of DSLR is FF shallow DOF stuff (as for now), Sport/animal, Wedding (require fast working solution for AF), flash photography (as for now). This section will soon be a niche market for professional and some of us here only. The day of Sony, Fuji bring out FF mirror less camera is the formal death judgment day of DSLR. Though, I don’t feel mirrorless has its limitation even now with APS-C performance we are having, not to mention they are keep moving forward fast.

AF Canikon lens value will drop like a rock. Mark my word here

Manual legacy lens will keep its value or even rising for a while, but with more and higher quality lens Fuji, Olympus, Sony even Zeiss bring out, I doubt big DSLR Manual lens can keep their value. Leica M lens will be sought after for hobbyists who care manual focus.

I suspect at that time, $3000 FF sized Medium Format Digital camera will come for serious hobbyist take over the FF DSLR section right now. It might be a good idea to stock some MF lens before they get crazy

Jan 30, 2013 at 11:56 PM

jcolwell
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p.1 #2 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

Too late, I already have my MF lenses.

AF Canikon lens value will drop like a rock. Mark my word here ...

Marking...

Jan 31, 2013 at 01:17 AM

sebboh
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p.1 #3 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

jcolwell wrote:
Too late, I already have my MF lenses.

AF Canikon lens value will drop like a rock. Mark my word here ...

Marking...

P.S. how will a 135/2 lens for a mirrorless camera will be different from an existing DSLR lens, like a Canon EF 135/2L lens? .. or maybe, an EF 500/4L IS, ... or a TS-E 17/4L ? Really. How will they be different?

well, the tilt shift design could be radically different without the mirror box to design around. the telephotos will remain pretty much the same though i could imagine a 135/2 being a collapsible design so it stays compact and short when not in use. i don't believe i've ever seen a 500L outside of sporting events and rallys, i don't think such lenses will change dramatically, though their demand might decrease a bit as high iso becomes better and better.

i agree with michael for the most part – low end dslrs will die off and dslrs in general come to occupy only the high end niches with special requirements. very few people will use dslrs for anything other than work. mirrorless cameras will occupy the spot presently occupied by consumer dslrs and then the spot occupied by prosumer dslrs as well. p&s cameras will disappear replaced by phones except for larger sensor ones like the rx100. i don't think canikon dslr lens prices will drop, i think they will rise and move more high end (except for the kit lenses that will be periodically refreshed and will drop in price). manual focus lens prices will continue to rise for a while due to the increased demand from video people, greater ease of manual focusing with LV cameras, and lack of complete lens lineups for mirrorless cameras. once the lineups of designed for mirrorless and video AF lenses matures the prices of manual focus lenses will drop again. the luxury brand manual focus lenses won't drop as much in price on the used market though.

i think that's it for my predictions...

Jan 31, 2013 at 01:50 AM

aleksanderpolo
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p.1 #4 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

When Apple comes in and bring out a FF mirrorless that is as small as a Leica and with tracking AF as good as the current DSLR, that would be the death of mirror. But of course there is no way Apple can just come in and take over, remember iPhone?

Mark my word here.

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:05 AM

sebboh
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p.1 #5 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

aleksanderpolo wrote:
When Apple comes in and bring out a FF mirrorless that is as small as a Leica and with tracking AF as good as the current DSLR, that would be the death of mirror. But of course there is no way Apple can just come in and take over, remember iPhone?

Mark my word here.

i doubt apple has any interest in the dslr market, they will continue to encroach on the p&s market with their phones though.

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:14 AM

jcolwell
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p.1 #6 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

sebboh wrote:
... i don't believe i've ever seen a 500L outside of sporting events and rallys, ...

You should look further...

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:23 AM

sebboh
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p.1 #7 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

jcolwell wrote:
sebboh wrote:
... i don't believe i've ever seen a 500L outside of sporting events and rallys, ...

You should look further...

i've certainly seen them on this forum, but i've never seen one birding in real life. i always see the 300/2.8s, 300/4s, and 100-400s. maybe it's because i tend to avoid birding areas that are tripod friendly. more likely though it's because canikon have sold a LOT less of them.

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:28 AM

LightShow
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p.1 #8 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

And we all know Apples last camera dominated the market...

The things holding back mirrless cameras right now are:
-Fast accurate focusing of moving subjects.
-Better ergonomics, my 1DIII feels so much better in my hand then any mirrless I've had in my hand.
-Most of the mirrorless cameras have been lacking in buttons and dials mostly due to the limited space that's available and the seemingly resistance to enable me to map functions to the different buttons and dials that are there.
-Higher quality lenses in a more compact form, granted physics has forced lens design restrictions, but there are some things that can be improved as sensors are improved.

It's still early to predict the end of DSLR's as a form factor, but the mirror will be the first to go.

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:29 AM

jcolwell
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p.1 #9 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

sebboh wrote:
i've certainly seen them on this forum, but i've never seen one birding in real life. i always see the 300/2.8s, 300/4s, and 100-400s. maybe it's because i tend to avoid birding areas that are tripod friendly. more likely though it's because canikon have sold a LOT less of them.

I wasn't using a tripod. The eagle was handheld with no IS. The ferry was monopod with IS.

Edited on Jan 31, 2013 at 02:32 AM · View previous versions

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:30 AM

sebboh
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p.1 #10 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

jcolwell wrote:
sebboh wrote:
i've certainly seen them on this forum, but i've never seen one birding in real life. i always see the 300/2.8s, 300/4s, and 100-400s. maybe it's because i tend to avoid birding areas that are tripod friendly. more likely though it's because canikon have sold a LOT less of them.

I wasn't using a tripod, or IS.

good for you! tripods are for pansies. why no IS? too high a shutter speed or does it not work for BIF tracking?

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:32 AM

jcolwell
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p.1 #11 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

I didn't use IS for the eagle image, because I was panning all over the place.

Your comment "good for you! tripods are for pansies" smacks of patronage. I expect better from you.

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:36 AM

mpmendenhall
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p.1 #12 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

LightShow wrote:
And we all know Apples last camera dominated the market...

The Apple QuickTake completely dominated the entire market for digital cameras below five-figure-priced Kodak backs --- it was just a very small market (initially consisting of the QuickTake)

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:38 AM

sebboh
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p.1 #13 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

jcolwell wrote:
I didn't use IS for the eagle image, because I was panning all over the place.

Your comment "good for you! tripods are for pansies" smacks of patronage. I expect better from you.

i can't resist a reversal, i so often see people say anybody is who isn't prepared to carry a tripod is a pansy or anybody who is serious about iq will use a tripod. i think they just need to drink less coffee.

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:44 AM

contas
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p.1 #14 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

I don't care what ever to bring out for shooting, I care only about the results AKA IQ.My expensive paid experiences show me 2 things:
1-Optics: Leica/Zeiss, the Zeiss includes CZJ and Russian Zeiss immitated lenses.No regret for resolution and contrast of those lenses.I have only 2 Leica lenses, but will buy more Leica if I will win a lottery.

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2-Digital sensor: Foveon: true color and pixel sharpness must be a gold standard for any future digital sensor.I am sure that Bayer color is a compromise in changing period.
Those convenient cameras with changing or fixed lenses don't meet two of the above factors won't reach that level of IQ. That's a told truth may resent
most of you here, sorry, but you'll see it is a truth in 5 years.

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:44 AM

philip_pj
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p.1 #15 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

Who is going to make the high end FF ILC mirrorless people get so excited about? C/N?

I hope Sony make a high profit one for an RX1 style of camera with proprietary CZ lenses - NEX is in many ways an embarrassment for them, one from which they are still trying to recover, with the lens lineup. Let the leica M folks petition Leica instead...

There is a huge installed base of DSLR lenses and the form factor suits people who wish a camera to conform to their hands rather than vice versa. Many small cams, even fancied ones, look very fragile, of necessity perhaps. Most look like cheap toys.

'but the mirror will be the first to go.'

My FF camera's one already 'could' for all the utility it provides, but it is a great dust shield and adds very little weight. Easy to remove too.

Jan 31, 2013 at 02:52 AM

jcolwell
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p.1 #16 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

sebboh wrote:
jcolwell wrote:
I didn't use IS for the eagle image, because I was panning all over the place.

Your comment "good for you! tripods are for pansies" smacks of patronage. I expect better from you.

forgive me for not having much experience with canon's IS, but i thought it was supposed to detect panning pretty well and not compensate on that axis? is that something that doesn't really work in practice or was the eagle just an erratic flier?

I'm really working hard to reduce my coffee intake. I used to start the morning with a quad espresso, followed by a double a few hours later. Now I'm OK with two doubles, early in the morning. After that, only Diet Coke.

Canon IS has two modes. Mode 1 is for stationary subjects; it stabilizes (compensates for) small vertical and horizontal perturbations in lens/camera motion due to trying to hold the camera steady (hand shake, wind, etc.). Mode 2 is for moving subjects; it stabilizes for small purturbations in the direction orthogonal to the track of the subject; provided that subject is moving in a horizontal or vertical plane. Mode 2 works fine for predictable subject trajectories, like at a race track. OTOH, Mode 2 is counter- productive if the subject is moving all over the map. Like a stupid bird!

I find that IS Mode 1 is very helpful for stationary subjects, for handheld and monopod photos, as well as for tripod photos in windy conditions. Mode 2 is great for subjects moving in horizontal or vertical directions, but not for other directions (e.g. moving up and to the left).

So, after using many generations of Canon IS, I prefer to (i) use Mode 1 for a stationary subject, or (ii) turn IS off for moving subjects. IOW, for moving subjects you have to keep shutter speeds up, but that's not an especially new idea, is it.

Jan 31, 2013 at 03:11 AM

sebboh
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p.1 #17 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

jcolwell wrote:
sebboh wrote:
jcolwell wrote:
I didn't use IS for the eagle image, because I was panning all over the place.

Your comment "good for you! tripods are for pansies" smacks of patronage. I expect better from you.

thanks, good to know. i am actually pondering the idea of buying a canon IS telephoto, though for use on a mirrorless camera of course.

i doubt it'll happen, i used to use nikkor 80-400 and i just couldn't stand the focus ring. i'm sure L glass would be better in that respect, but i'm still not sure i'll find it tolerable.

Jan 31, 2013 at 03:32 AM

ytwong
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p.1 #18 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

AF Canikon lens value will drop like a rock. Mark my word here
Consumer lens, maybe, professional lens, probably not, since they are necessitates for pro photogs.

I suspect at that time, $3000 FF sized Medium Format Digital camera will come for serious hobbyist take over the FF DSLR section right now.
I hope I will see that

I think we might see more and more ultra fast lens for smaller formats.

Jan 31, 2013 at 03:35 AM

jcolwell
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p.1 #19 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

sebboh wrote:
thanks, good to know. i am actually pondering the idea of buying a canon IS telephoto, though for use on a mirrorless camera of course.

i doubt it'll happen, i used to use nikkor 80-400 and i just couldn't stand the focus ring. i'm sure L glass would be better in that respect, but i'm still not sure i'll find it tolerable.

The best manual focus supertelephoto that I've owned is the Nikkor ED 500/4 P. The next best was the Nikkor*ED 400mm f/3.5. The Canon EF 500/4L IS (and 300/2.8L IS + 1/4x) blow them out of the water, on a 1D-series body...

If you're only using a mirrorless camera, then ... never mind.

Jan 31, 2013 at 03:38 AM

Jabberwockt
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p.1 #20 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

If Sony ever comes out with a FF NEX, the whole contax G line of lens should jump in price overnight. Right now, aside from film, there isn't a FF platform for them barring a expensive Leica mount conversion. Size, weight, and performance wise, the whole line compares well to the Leica lenses of the era.

Jan 31, 2013 at 04:29 AM

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