A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

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zhangyue
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p.2 #1 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

500mm or T/S lens won't save the whole DSLR section as I pointed out with my OP. It is niche now and will be niche in the future.

Long glass size won't save as much, I agree, but whole system will be. Consider if I travel, I can bring from 21 to 90 small size lens with one or two Long lens if has to be. But whole system size and weight saving is significant.

As for AF glass resale drop, that is based on assumption that DSLR body sell drops, there is simple no market for all those gold/red ring lens. Every time, I went to Saturday market or Zoo, I see quite a few fathers bring fancy red ring lens around, once the sells drop on DSLR, the lens market will shrink as well. Pro lens will drop like a rock in 14-100mm zone, 300-800mm might not drop like a stone since they never sell many, market is small but lens is not many either. so they may drop like a feather

Consumer lens never worth anything any way.

As for FF mirrorless, if there is well established APS-C mirrorless lens selection, such as super fast glass, we may not even need stick with FF. But the FF mirrorless introduction will be last stab on DSLR life. even without it, I believe DSLR will be shrink with the time passing by.

Jan 31, 2013 at 05:01 AM

Sagar
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p.2 #2 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

philip_pj wrote:

NEX is in many ways an embarrassment for them, one from which they are still trying to recover, with the lens lineup. Let the leica M folks petition Leica instead...

May be true for people from forum like FM. But I don't think SONY is in embarrassing position in any way. I think they very well knew what they were doing. Similar to Pany-Oly they are also started with consumer grade lenses helping capture user base and volume sale. Remember old m4/3 days? Till Panasonic came out with 20mm and even after that, 20mm was the only real good lens for m4/3 for quite a while.

Sony now at least in Japan has captured ~23% market share and now they seem to have started focusing on prosumer market. Around 2012 alone they have released NEX-6, 7, 35/1.8, 10-16/4, Z24 (I know it came early). I think Zeiss, Sigma and Sony combined will have a very good lens line by by 2014 or so. And that's the point it will be true test for m4/3 format.

C/N will be late to the party as they try to protect their DSLR market share. If/when they decide to go mirror less seriously I still trust their capability and they can come late and still capture most of the market share. Currently their mirror-less offerings are more like Apple TV a commercial hobby to probe the market

Once we have all good primes/lenses for APSC format either from S/C/N in a slightly larger package than m4/3 I doubt people will buy m4/3 anymore. I think in the medium to long term there is much more risk to Olympus/Panasonic than to Canon or Nikon

Jan 31, 2013 at 05:09 AM

corposant
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p.2 #3 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

zhangyue wrote:
... flash photography (as for now)...

I use flash with pretty much all of my cameras, none of which are DSLRs.

I'd like to take this moment to congratulate Sony on advancing out of the dark ages and joining everybody else with the same hotshoe.

Jan 31, 2013 at 05:27 AM

sirimiri
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p.2 #4 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

Who the hell says that any market needs "saving"?

Systems and markets evolve. Phrases such as "formal death judgment day" and "take over" or " save the whole DSLR section" are sensationalist hyperbole.

AF Canikon lens value will drop like a rock. Mark my word here
And what of it? Use what you own, own what you use and don't bother thinking about perceived or inherent value.

I'm of the opinion, that though it happens in slow motion, the real disturbance that rearranges things, is the one you never see coming. Let it come, and in the meantime:
Shoot, don't speculate.

mpmendenhall wrote:
The Apple QuickTake completely dominated the entire market for digital cameras below five-figure-priced Kodak backs --- it was just a very small market (initially consisting of the QuickTake)

Alas, the Casio QV-10 was a bit of an also-ran, I suppose. But I sold a lot of them, Casio had a SPIF on that one and weren't bashful with the payout.

Nonetheless, I sold 'em because they were the only digital camera we had. There was no other camera to favor them over, at our dainty little national chain of camera sales/photofinishing.

Jan 31, 2013 at 05:38 AM

sebboh
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p.2 #5 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

jcolwell wrote:
The best manual focus supertelephoto that I've owned is the Nikkor ED 500/4 P. The next best was the Nikkor*ED 400mm f/3.5. The Canon EF 500/4L IS (and 300/2.8L IS + 1/4x) blow them out of the water, on a 1D-series body...

If you're only using a mirrorless camera, then ... never mind.

ha, i'm not considering anything right now that won't fit in a diaper bag, so i guess the 300/4L IS is the only canon to consider. if i want more reach i'll have to rely on stealth and croppability.

Jan 31, 2013 at 06:01 AM

zhangyue
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p.2 #6 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

sirimiri wrote:
Who the hell says that any market needs "saving"?

Who the hell said that?

sirimiri wrote:
Systems and markets evolve. Phrases such as "formal death judgment day" and "take over" or " save the whole DSLR section" are sensationalist hyperbole.

Evolve to what? I miss your point if there is any?

And what of it? Use what you own, own what you use and don't bother thinking about perceived or inherent value.

It is a 'prediction' as title implied. Who the hell said people are bother thinking about perceived or inherent value. Even with that in mind, what is wrong? Did I force you bother think of that?

I'm of the opinion, that though it happens in slow motion, the real disturbance that rearranges things, is the one you never see coming. Let it come, and in the meantime:

'What' happened in slow motion? if you mean mirrorless, I see nothing conflict between us, why argue.

Shoot, don't speculate.

There are image threads, nobody stop you shooting. This is discuss thread with name 'prediction' and 'discuss'. Why can't I speculate?

Jan 31, 2013 at 06:27 AM

rscheffler
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p.2 #7 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

Legacy MF glass will likely continue to increase in value because it's a finite quantity and mirrorless options will increase while more people find out about vintage glass and the different characteristics it offers...

Super tele lenses: Michael, I think you'd be surprised just how many of these lenses are out there, especially the 300/2.8 and 500/4, which during the earlier 2000s were the point of entry into super tele ownership for many, especially bird/wildlife shooters. And during that time, prices were flat or even declined somewhat. IIRC, $5500, give or take, for the Canon 500/4 IS. That's about what a 35 Lux costs.

Therefore doable for many. But I agree now things are a bit different. Prices have gone up on some of these lenses in the range of 50%. IMO, Canikon know this market segment is shrinking due to contraction in 'pro' fields, such as photojournalism, where many companies have slashed equipment budgets. Nikon just introduced their 800/5.6 for just shy of $18,000! And I think many here were surprised when the Canon 800 debuted around $12-13K... Now I'm getting a bit nervous about what Canon will price their 200-400 at... I don't think these lenses will save DSLRs, but will probably be the last bastion of high-end DSLRs where AF speed/accuracy/consistency is required.

I shot a job last week, a conference, with the 1DX. At times I used 12fps in short bursts to capture a usable range of expressions from the speakers. During a break someone commented about whether I could turn off the 'clicking' of the camera. So yeah, mirrorless with electronic shutter would be nice. Heck, might as well trade in my 1DX for a 1DC and shoot everything 4k and frame grab the stills. Already a couple photographers at the local paper are doing this - shooting assignments at 1080p and using CS6 to scroll through clips to grab their stills. If you think about it, 1080P is about the resolution of the original D1, and for papers is good enough. Biggest problem of shooting 4k for what I do would be file storage... plus that camera doesn't offer RAW video (even bigger files), meaning I'd have to pay a lot more attention to exposure and WB during capture...

So where am I going with this... I think at some point, most photographers earning money from photography will turn to video capture, even if only to pick out stills, and for this kind of shooting, DSLRs don't really offer any benefit.

Jan 31, 2013 at 06:45 AM

pr4photos
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p.2 #8 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

At this stage in the game I find the optical viewfinder much easier and quicker to use for manual focus than the electronic viewfinder. When the EVF is as good or better than the OVF I will think that mirrorless has a good chance for full time pro use. Until that time I will use my DSLR for the majority of my work and use the mirrorless for when I can use AF or have the time to fiddle with manual focus

Jan 31, 2013 at 08:08 AM

Chrissearle
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p.2 #9 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

Virtually all of my bird photographer friends have 500/4's glued to their DSLRs and frequently use them handheld, for birds reach is all and 300's and to an extent 400's are not as useful in fact most 500/4 birders use 1.4 converters as well.
Of course, one could stick a 400/5.6 on a MFT mirrorless but the speed of response, the ergonomics and the 'pop' that the big glass gives is just not going to be there, so DSLRs will continue to be used in this specialist arena for some time yet.
But as I have mentioned elsewhere and on my blog, I'm finding that if I carry three compacts they give me much less weight, and almost as much utility as one of my DSLRs and a selection of lenses, and in a lot of cases offer me more.
I now often leave the DSLR ( 5D3) at home and take a small bag containing a DP2M and a G1X plus some batteries and filters and have an X100 around my neck. This combination is very light and, more importantly, actually allows me to take more keepers than previously with just the DSLR kit. I am concluding that the 5D3 will be my last DSLR.

Jan 31, 2013 at 08:23 AM

philip_pj
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p.2 #10 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

'I think they (Sony) very well knew what they were doing (with NEX).'

Sony are on the record as stating they did not expect all the higher end alt lens users sticking just about anything in front of the first NEXs, as a kind of universal fit 'mini digital back'. They, in their usual quirky way, simply floated another design thought bubble with the rather basic first NEX, figuring they would add lenses at a leisurely pace, their own consumer lenses that is. Even now, they clearly disappoint stacks of people here who seem to think Sony should serve *their* interests by giving them a great but cheap FF sensor for their Leica M and similar lenses!

They would be crazy to offer up a well thought out FF mirrorless system (i.e. FF NEX) for those with expensive lenses from other systems for *small bucks*, when the native system maker was flogging high priced rangefinder bodies...it's no way to run a business if you had a large such advantage, as they clearly have. People seem to think Sony is a kind of low rent Santa Claus.

A new FF NEX would also cannibalise the NEX APS-C line and the forthcoming Zeiss lenses for it, don't you think? They are a business not a charity, and appear to have a sound idea of the worth of their cameras, witness the RX1. People just cannot get used to the idea of Sony making very good and expensive equipment...but they will, given time.

Only a year ago, a lot of people thought they would exit the business, a real egg on face deal now as it turns out. The future is very hard to foretell, but they are a nimble and resourceful outfit these days, or so it seems - unlike some others around the place, taking a snooze in the afterglow of yesteryear's designs.

Jan 31, 2013 at 09:45 AM

carstenw
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p.2 #11 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

LightShow wrote:
The things holding back mirrless cameras right now are:
- Fast accurate focusing of moving subjects.
- Better ergonomics, my 1DIII feels so much better in my hand then any mirrless I've had in my hand.
- Most of the mirrorless cameras have been lacking in buttons and dials mostly due to the limited space that's available and the seemingly resistance to enable me to map functions to the different buttons and dials that are there.
- Higher quality lenses in a more compact form, granted physics has forced lens design restrictions, but there are some things that can be improved as sensors are improved.

I am guessing that the AF will be solved at some point, although it might take a little longer than expected.

The handling issue is not something which mirrorless cameras can solve, especially when considering teles, super-teles, and tilt-shift lenses. The smaller cameras get, the more awkward for use with large lenses, but it is exactly this reduction in size which is what people want.

I consider the interface of '80s SLR cameras to be nearly ideal, so with a bit of daring, the button issue could be solved. Really, most common usage requires only 3-4 controls in total. It is only when you want extra buttons to directly manipulate which viewfinder is currently on, zoom/peaking, direct printing, etc., that it gets to be an issue.

---

What I would really like to see is the increased usage of space-age materials such as carbon-fiber, in order to make cameras and large lenses lighter, without sacrificing rigidity. An increase in the focus on optimal ergonomics would also be great. I consider the D600 or D800 (and equivalent in other systems) to be the perfect size for the hands, with the optional grip helping in outlier situations.

Jan 31, 2013 at 10:15 AM

carstenw
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p.2 #12 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

sebboh wrote:
jcolwell wrote:
The best manual focus supertelephoto that I've owned is the Nikkor ED 500/4 P. The next best was the Nikkor*ED 400mm f/3.5. The Canon EF 500/4L IS (and 300/2.8L IS + 1/4x) blow them out of the water, on a 1D-series body...

If you're only using a mirrorless camera, then ... never mind.

ha, i'm not considering anything right now that won't fit in a diaper bag, so i guess the 300/4L IS is the only canon to consider. if i want more reach i'll have to rely on stealth and croppability.

If you are going mirrorless anyway, then maybe consider the Nikon 300/4 and 300/4.5 versions, which all have aperture rings. Or are you hoping to AF?

Jan 31, 2013 at 10:23 AM

carstenw
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p.2 #13 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

philip_pj wrote:
A new FF NEX would also cannibalise the NEX APS-C line and the forthcoming Zeiss lenses for it, don't you think? They are a business not a charity, and appear to have a sound idea of the worth of their cameras, witness the RX1. People just cannot get used to the idea of Sony making very good and expensive equipment...but they will, given time.

The problem with Sony is their inconsistency. They have historically churned out market-creating devices as well as high-end dream devices, only to sprinkle in lack-lustre, over-priced, mis-featured bullcrap in between. For TV aficionados they are infamous for releasing a really top-notch set every 5 years or something, only to release a follow-up model with some crucial missing feature. Look at their performance in the computer segment as well. My first laptop was a Vaio, and it was a beautiful little thing, light, strong, metal case, but the followups were twice the size and plastic. This appears to be a uniquely Sony thing, where they will innovate and crapovate in alternating cycles with some randomised period.

I don't see that they are doing any better in the camera segment. Every once in a while they release something very cool, but they fail to follow up properly. They also turn on a dime, leaving scads of users behind, scratching their heads. Look at the A900-A99 progression. It is almost certain that the kind of user who liked the back-to-basics pure SLR experience of the A900 will not like the hyper-tech buttonitis electronic everything approach of the A99. Furthermore, they fail to plug holes in their lens lineups, which includes the DSLR segment. This last point alone is why I am very hesitant to buy into a Sony system, combined with their on-again-off-again QC and lack of dedication to consistently fix problems properly, and advance their systems in a predictable, useful manner. If you do not know what Sony will do next, how can you plan? For those of us who are still into buying systems, and not just a Sony camera with random adapted lenses, this is a deal-killer.

They are simply too random. Very interesting new-thinking, but little consistency.

I am happy that they are in the market, since they provide talking material and disruptive influence, but I am highly reluctant to buy into their wares.

Jan 31, 2013 at 10:37 AM

mortyb
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p.2 #14 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

corposant wrote:
I'd like to take this moment to congratulate Sony on advancing out of the dark ages and joining everybody else with the same hotshoe.

Although the former hotshoe was sturdier, no? Anyways, doesn't matter to me.

Jan 31, 2013 at 11:17 AM

carstenw
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p.2 #15 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

jcolwell wrote:
(and 300/2.8L IS + 1/4x)

Ah, a new metabones converter? So let me see, that makes, erm, a 75mm lens with an aperture of 0.7. Wait a second! Is this the famed replacement for the legendary Zeiss lens used by Kubrick? Oh no, it is a Canon. Never mind.

Jan 31, 2013 at 11:26 AM

p666
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p.2 #16 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

All I can say is I wouldn't want to be holding a whole lot of EF-S or DX lenses.. I think full frame in the traditional size DSLR form will hold on for a while, but for APS-C I think it will be less than 5 years before there is only a couple of "full size" mirrored bodies still developed.

Looking at most of the mirrorless, I don't see why (with the appropriate compact sizes) there can't be a lot more manual dials on it if it was so desired to make them easier to use without screens. I mean on the Canons, their "secondary" finger wheel at the top could easily be applied to the mirror-less size. It seems at the moment you have to pay more to get more manual dials, which is a little backwards to the old way of thinking!

If you want small lenses to go with the mirrorless body size, the optics on an APS-C size format are a bit of a compromise. No matter what the tech, that's going to be fairly hard to nail down. But really, it's great to see such a change occurring, may you live in interesting times

Jan 31, 2013 at 12:49 PM

Gary Clennan
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p.2 #17 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

If you're only using a mirrorless camera, then ... never mind.

Jan 31, 2013 at 01:30 PM

Andrew Gough
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p.2 #18 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

I was having lunch the other day with a friend who runs a very large online camera store. He remarked how mirrorless is a bust with low uptake. I was quite surprised by this, as said there seem to be a lot of people interested in it on the web. He mentioned that uptake levels are very high in Asia, slow in Europe, and very slow in North America. It seems that, here at least, people are resistant to ditching their investment. They simply do not want to spend the money duplicating a system. Perhaps, at FM, we are a very small but active community vs the broad scale market.

Jan 31, 2013 at 01:57 PM

Beni
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p.2 #19 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

There are how many EF lenses out there? 75 million just in the past 20 or so years? That's one heck of a lot of inertia for mirrorless to kill. Nevermind the similar millions from Nikon. DSLR's will get smaller perhaps and the mirror may disappear once they get the EVF to work better but I very much doubt that the EF or Nikon mount with AF and bodies which can be handheld with these lenses will disappear for a long time. It's not the same as the FD mount by a long stretch.

Jan 31, 2013 at 03:03 PM

Jon Tainton
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p.2 #20 · A prediction for camera industry for discuss here Alt board

zhangyue wrote:
The day of Sony, Fuji bring out FF mirror less camera that can produce images with accurate colour rendition and sharp, smear free, detailed edges and corners with a 24mm TS-E shifted zhangyue wrote:is the formal death judgment day of DSLR.

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Jan 31, 2013 at 03:32 PM

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