Upload & Sell: On
| p.5 #6 · Probably the last semi-Pro DX camera from Nikon |
With the warm reception for the D600 by both the FX and DX camp, I got a feeling that the elusive D400 DX is really going to be more elusive. Even if the development team wanted to push it out, they will have a hard time convincing their senior management to give the green light to go ahead because marketing will oppose it and will likely want to give the D600 more time to gain market share.
For those who said that the D600 is still too costly to switch, there will be an even cheaper all polycarbonate FX in line to replace the D5100, but will not be call the D5200 (how about calling it the D400 FX ).
By looking at the resell market, one will noticed that not many high end DX lenses are being sold or worth selling, the only noticeable one is the 17-55mm f/2.8G with one or two 10-24mm f/3.5-4.5G and 12-24mm f/4G. So if base on these information not many DX users are stuck with much DX investment. All digital cameras depreciate fast anyway.
As for those who need long lenses, it will be cover by newer range of pro and non-pro tele and zoom lenses which are in the pipeline.
So I think either we accept the facts or will only be disappointed by waiting for something that might not even materialise unless...
Maybe I just released the bombs away button.
No, but I don't think they run things like that. The planning and development horizon on these things is very long, and the tooling, testing, etc. is very expensive. They've either got one in their plan or not. I work in the tech industry, and while I've seen things killed during the development phase, even somewhat late in the process, it is very rare, and usually due to a massive market shift. The D600 is off to a great start, but it isn't re-defining the market. It has been easy to get from Day 1. When the D7000 came out, it was months before you could readily get one.
With the recent price drop of the D7000 and the pricing of the D600, Nikon pretty clearly has a price cell left wide open. Canon has a highly successful 7D out there. I'd be shocked if they didn't fill that void.
I'll agree with you that the D600 has been warmly received by the D7000 DX crowd, but all I've heard from the D200/D300/D300s crowd is "That isn't what we wanted". It isn't a small crowd, and for different reasons even beyond body and platform cost they/we aren't seeing the D600 or D800 as good substitutes. If Nikon has product managers/executives who are missing that, they should find other jobs. (I've been in technology sales/product marketing for over 20 years, mainly on the product side)
Maybe there is a "can't" aspect to this - the tsunami and Thailand flooding so disrupted the company that the development of the D400 failed while they tried to preserve halo/profit driving products like the D4/D800 and revenue drivers like the D3200 and D600. I think it created a delay, but I think they'll release a D300s successor. Maybe they are taking the opportunity to bump things a bit in some way.
As for lenses, I think Nikon is fine for their DX-specific lens kit overall. I'd guess they don't feel the need to fill every gap when their DX/FX line is so broad. Only two of my five lenses are DX-specific, and I'm fine with the options available to me. I think they've been pretty smart about their line, and every small gap has at least one good 3rd party alternative available (Tokina, Tamron, et. al.)
Thom Hogan seems to expect a D300s replacement early next year. In the meantime, I'm still very happy with my D300s. The delay has cured me of my NAS for now, and turned me back toward getting the most out of the camera I have in-hand.