Tentacle wrote:
Leaks so far? Just about nada! I don't see any change in that, to be honest.
I didn't say "leaks so far." I was talking about leaks after the meetup with all the reps. 100 or 1000 people cannot keep a secret, particularly when it's basically un-trackable, can they?
Erik Barzeski wrote:
I didn't say "leaks so far." I was talking about leaks after the meetup with all the reps. 100 or 1000 people cannot keep a secret, particularly when it's basically un-trackable, can they?
"Leaks" aren't "announcements" either.
I didn't intended my reply to be specific to your post. It was a general observation that we haven't seen official or unofficial release of information so far. That suggests to me that Canon isn't only tight-lipped about it, it's also not releasing anything under embargo. Or their NDA is very very threatening and watertight.
So, all we can rely upon, announcement-wise and leak-wise, is to wait for March the 5th for the first, and wait indefinately for the second. Well, after official announcement there can not be leaks anyway, so the latter point will be moot.
Erik Barzeski wrote:
Based on your educated guesses, where would you put the odds for each of Canon's current cameras?
Major upgrade?
400 - 0%
30D - 30% - should be in the fall
5D - 80% - on cycle for this time, and lots of rebates in the past year on it.
1Dn - 40% - 1/3 form factor is 'dead' so they say, and it has no real competetion
1Ds - 60% - again, no real competition
New stuff
3000 - 6mp D40 fighter - 60%
3D - D200 fighter, 1Dn replacement perhaps - 60%
MF system - 25%
Any guesses on lenses?
24-70 2.8 IS - 50% (update or new lens?)
another lens update, too...16-35 2.8 perhaps IS?
50-150 2.8 IS and non IS EF-S lenses
12mm fisheye EF-S
Erik Barzeski wrote:
I'm trying to figure out the best time for a 5D purchase. Obviously "before the 19th" is important, but B&H has a 14-day return policy from the date of delivery. Perhaps I should order at the end of this week (say, mid-day Friday) and then my items would ship Saturday or Monday, with arrival around the 14th, giving me until the 28th to see if I want to return the 5D to buy a possible replacement. The news will surely have leaked by then, right?
Here are what I would call the "odds" of a replacement, based on what I've read here and elsewhere:
New Low-End (~$450): 25%
400D: 1% (never say never!)
30D: 85%
5D: 40%
1D/1Ds: 90%
Based on your educated guesses, where would you put the odds for each of Canon's current cameras?...Show more →
As you realize, it's no accident the rebates end on the 19th. You might want to find a place with a longer return policy, if possible. I would also look for price drops the week before the 19th, although probably not at B&H.
Put yourself in any Canon rep's shoes - if management policies dictate no staff in any circumstances should release/leak info about embargo products to unauthorised 3rd-parties and anyone found guilty of doing so will be severely dealt with (possibly dismissal) - you will think twice (or very hard) before attempting to take the risk of indulging what you already know of the next wave of new products to be released for PMA 2007. Hence the non-official admittances nor leaks of any sort so far, with 21 days to go ...
dcmiller wrote:
As you realize, it's no accident the rebates end on the 19th. You might want to find a place with a longer return policy, if possible. I would also look for price drops the week before the 19th, although probably not at B&H.
I don't see the problem with this. To be eligible for the rebate you have to BUY the thing by the 19th; it doesn't say you have to have it in your hands by the 19th. At the same time, the way I understand B&H policy, and how I have used it before (the one time...) is that the 14-day return policy is between the day you receive it and ship it back. So if you order on the 19th (or a day or two earlier to make sure, since they have a backlog at times and non-express items ship with a small delay) you still bought it by the deadline; then you can use UPS ground if you want, which will ensure that you don't get the goodies for a month, and the you still have plenty of time to return. But even if UPS doesn't screw up this should all be very doable.
lordcarl wrote:
[...] anyone found guilty of doing so will be severely dealt with (possibly dismissal) [...]
Now if possible dismissal is the worst they'll do to you, it's no surprise that stuff gets leaked. Where I work the NDAs are written quite a bit more severely
I'd say the 30D replacement is more like 80% likely... The 30D was a minor upgrade from the 20D... along with the rebates in the USA that are available on the 30D, and price drops seen in other countrys... not to mention it's feature set is lagging behind the Nikon in this price range, etc... all of this surely adds up to more then a 30% chance of there being a upgrade for this camera.
Of course all of this is my personal speculation... but I'd see them upgrading the 30D before them upgrading the 5D... In my way of thinking upgrading the 5D just creates some competition for the 1D line.... I think they would likely announce a upgrade to one or both of the 1D bodies before they upgrade the 5D. I'd say this is 50% at best.
I'm also skeptical of the D40 fighter... I do think they need something in that area, but I'm not so sure Nikon didn't catch Canon off guard with that item, and question if Canon has had time to work through how to fight that battle... I would personally see a drop in price on the 400D as being a easier way to fight this battle. I'd say the odds of a new body to fight the D40, in this quarter are less then 50%.
my guess (thx canon )
40D: 100%
5D: 80% (pricecut next month)
1D2(s): not untill later this year.
400D: 0% (still going strong with no competition in sales; despite alpha and D40)
: edit speaking of Alpha: Sony's 2nd Alpha body isn't comming untill august!
One thing is clear: The need for a 30D successor is so completely evident that the likelyhood of a 40D approaches fact so much that it makes no difference. So, 40D this year, with a 5-nines certainty.
The K10D, the D80 and the D200 take chunks out of the 30D sales. The sensor is still from the 20D, so that's 30 months old now. The question then becomes: will Canon play catch-up, just rope-a-dope and bump to 10 Mpixel, but do nothing special? Or will it pull something special out of the hat?
But I'm repeating myself here, I think Sorry 'bout that
Well, after reading that oft-cited Canon TrueColor patent, (US patent number 6,338,709) I can say that that isn't what we're likely to see in a dSLR sensor, since that patent is all about video capture, not about still frame capture. (Yes, yes, the patent mentions that still frames are possible, but it's primary purpose is video.)
That leaves either a Foveon sensor for the 40D, or APS-H, for the Big Jump Ahead... That's a tough call. I can image that Foveon has all the patents on the 3-layer sensor, so how realistic is it for Canon to be allowed to use this technology?
Marketing wise, the 1D series doesn't need updates as much as the xxD series. 1Ds II vs D2Xs and 1DII vs D2H. Canon could easily wait untill the august time-frame to announce the Mark III models. It'd hurt much more to do so with the 40D.
htbyron wrote:
Instead of truecolor or foveon, what about 16-bit processing, instead of 12-bit?
That is only meaningful if that actually brings something extra to the table.
Current sensors have about 8 stops dynamic range, give or take some. In theory, you need 8-bit to cover that range. It has 4 bit depth extra for numerical space, so 16 times the extra level accuracy. That's all one needs for an 8-stop DR sensor.
Moving to 16-bit would only have any real use if the sensor actually puts out 10 to 12 stops of DR. Now, that would be very nice, but you can't expect a resolution bump (which means smaller photo sites) and expect such a hike in DR.
htbyron wrote:
Instead of truecolor or foveon, what about 16-bit processing, instead of 12-bit?
I've always wondered about the meaningful mathmatical percision of the CMOS chip. What if Canon is twelve bit because more than twelve isn't meaningful? I'm not sure that 16 bit is even meaningful with the current dynamic range of all cameras. But CCD seems to be showing better tonality than Canon, so perhaps they can improve to a meaningful 14 bit.
A holistic way to look at this issue is high-end scanning. Mostly done in 8 bits. The mathematically oriented were sure that 16 was better, but this could never be demonstrated.
So what's really going on in the analog measurement is key. The AD converter can output 32 bits, but does it matter?
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